It will take some time for all of the goods and services trade effects of Brexit to become clear, but there is currently little reason to think that forecasts of the order of a 5% hit to GDP over a few years are likely to be wrong. New trade deals may recover a tenth of that.

— David Henig πŸ‡ΊπŸ‡¦ (@DavidHenigUK) March 12, 2021