Rayvin
-
Posts
20773 -
Joined
-
Last visited
-
Days Won
15
Posts posted by Rayvin
-
-
So is Cameron saying today that Israel are going to escalate with Iran? This is going stunningly badly for everyone involved tbh. A sobering reminder of what the breakdown of interdependency means for the world.
Still, I suppose BAE and Lockheed are having a field day.
-
1
-
-
On 16/11/2023 at 22:55, Rayvin said:
That is the only logical view if he at some point decides to back a ceasefire. That the only thing stopping him from doing it now is that not enough innocents have been killed to satisfy Israel.
He gets some respect from me if he sticks to his guns and pushes Israel to decimate all of Gaza in an attempt to destroy Hamas because at least that will mean it is genuinely the only option he thinks there is. If at some point he flips around and says we need a ceasefire cos 20k, 30k, 50k are dead, then no, he's getting nothing from me for that. All that tells me is that he knew ceasefire is what this would come to, and he was waiting for the death toll to hit a predefined number/global outrage to become unsustainable. Instead of, y'know, doing the thing he knew he should have done from the word go.
So right now I'm really hoping Israel are successfully going to permanently eradicate Hamas for the rest of time, because that's the hill Biden has chosen to die on.
On 16/11/2023 at 23:30, Rayvin said:I am saying that there are two options out of this. One is a ceasefire. The other is the total annihilation of Hamas. Further to that, I am saying that at this point, with 10k dead, Biden better fucking believe that the only way out of this is the annihilation of Hamas, because if he turns around later at 20 or 30k dead and calls for a ceasefire, all I'm going to think is that for BIDEN PERSONALLY the key consideration in whether or not a ceasefire was the right course of action was how many innocent lives had been lost.
None of this has anything to do with Israel's view, which I strongly suspect is that the total annihilation of Hamas is achievable. Israel are not going to suddenly come up with a ceasefire as a policy suggestion on this though, so they will remain consistent to their view.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2024/apr/04/israel-us-gaza-joe-biden-benjamin-netanyahu-phone-call Biden called for a ceasefire at 30k it turns out.
Israel wiping out Hamas was never remotely realistic unless they were going to commit a full on genocide through Gaza, so I want to just flag this post back up. The whole world turning around now and saying a ceasefire has to be reached is just stomach turning. The US knew, we knew, everyone fucking knew that Israel weren't going to fucking succeed. Why did we have to let them kill 30k+ people? Because apparently we needed to let Israel kill a sufficient number of innocents so as to be somewhat 'appeased'. The world let Israel collect a blood debt on Palestinian lives.
It is beyond sickening how the world has handled this.
-
1
-
-
Just now, Alex said:
People like you give me hope for the future. You might not feel that way yourself but you’re idealistic in a good way and well informed. Young people like that are likely to make things change. It’s the ones obsessed with what Joey Essex is up to that are the problem tbh. Not that it’s exclusively young people like. Once you’re an old cunt like me you tend to get less upset about things outside your control for the sake of your own sanity, that’s all.
A few years ago maybe. I'm not that young anymore tbf, and I'm now spent as a force for 'good'. I'm too cynical and jaded, and I can't see how any of it can ever improve in reality. The ship sailed and I lost hope when it did. I'm now just bitter, as per my previous post
-
3
-
-
Mind you, Labour are trying to paint me (us?) as the enemies...
MIddle Class Lefties apparently are the enemy of NHS reform. Not fucking worthless, abject politicians like Wes Streeting.
-
Yeah I'll definitely be cheering that outcome. Though I doubt it'll be the end of him.
-
16 minutes ago, Renton said:
Not much. I'm fortunate to be Gen X so have managed to acquire some wealth with which to see me through to old age, hopefully. But then I see what the millenials and Gen Z need to contend with, including my kids, and I honestly despair. Like everything else in my life at the moment, I am just firefighting, trying to solve problems one at a time as they develop. But things can change unexpectedly for the good as well as the bad so you never know.
Although I do admit I will really, really enjoy the GE night if it goes as expected. May elections with Ben Houchen hopefully getting the boot is the aperitif.
I'll enjoy it too on some level I'm sure. Every staunch Brexiteer that goes down will be celebrated. JRM would be a real scalp, I gather he's in trouble.
-
1
-
-
2 minutes ago, Renton said:
Couldn't agree more with Gaza and CLimate change. We should do our bit within the remit we are now an irrelevance internationally. Losing our sense of exceptualism is key, ironically I think the tories have expedited this through the disaster of Brexit.
I honestly don't think we disagree that much politically, we just see it from different angles. For me, getting the tories out of power for a generation is simply the most important thing. Got to stop the mad man knifing me before I think about healing the wounds.
There are arguments somehow if Labour need to form a coalition, particularly with the LDs, this could facilitate a route to PR. This seems extremely unlikely to me now. More likely I think, if the conservatives face near wipe out and Reform do not win a single seat with say 15% of the vote, ironically this may encourage these parties to adopt a PR stance and put more pressure on Labour. Who knows, but until this issue is sorted I don't see us getting the stability for long-term changes we need in this country regarding issues like climate change.
In fairness, none of my position is tactical or motivated by anything other than the fact that I am deeply pissed off and let down by politics in this country, and I am simply beyond being able to compromise on it any more on a personal level.
I agree that we are aligned on basically everything. The difference I think just comes down to hope/optimism for the future. You have some.
-
Also not so much desperate to fail as desperate to see other people also sharing my views trying to hold them to account, which makes sense you would think in ensuring that I don't just give up on the whole thing?
Granted Gaza and climate change aren't the sum total of my issues with Labour. I'd still vote for them despite those things if they were doing either of the two things that actually mattered. On Gaza we're just a pathetic nation with no actual leadership skills, doesn't matter who is in charge, it's going to be the same. On climate change, its the same. Baked into the national psyche at this point.
-
1
-
-
Just to clarify, I too want Labour to succeed. I just measure success in more than just winning this election. They have to actually also be good and useful in government.
-
1
-
1
-
-
Progressive young/urban voters turning away from Labour over Gaza and climate change apparently: https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2024/apr/11/labour-may-fail-to-grab-target-seats-as-young-voters-turn-away-over-gaza-and-climate
Could just be a scare article but some suggestion it could cost them some key seats here and there. Doubt it matters in the end but hopefully something that will remind Starmer that we're not all collectively a centre right hive mind.
Sunder Katwala, the director of the non-partisan thinktank British Future, said: “This is a 2025 or 2028 challenge for Labour. There is a danger of taking your core vote for granted, and that danger will be very apparent after the election.”
-
2 hours ago, NJS said:
Yes but in a nice way.
Are you a twat in real life? 🙂
I don't personally feel like I am but I suspect the same could be said for most of the Tory party
I did have a civil conversation with an ethnonationalist recently and somehow resisted the urge to cancel him, so I'm going to use that single data point to claim that I could be worse
-
1
-
-
1 hour ago, NJS said:
more woke than Rayvin.
Do I come across as that woke to you guys
-
2
-
-
1 minute ago, Alex said:
They were lied to though. I take your point but as we’ve said on here before it’s relatively easy to sell a bullshit vision of something that hasn’t happened. Whereas now they know they were lied to it’s different. The other thing is, which is opinion because I haven’t research to back this up, I think a lot of people who’s never even bother voting were motivated to vote in the referendum.
Yeah just to be clear then, I'm not saying that most of the British public are secret fascists. I'm saying that enough of them are stupid enough that they don't need to be in order to cause harm, and that this characteristic should be enough to keep the Tories around.
-
4 minutes ago, Dr Gloom said:
Also people didn’t really know what they voting for on Brexit. If Cameron had negotiated an emergency break on immigration with the EU we probably would have got away with it. That’s what it was ultimately about, really.
It should never have gone to referendum, let alone a binary in/out one.
The Brexit vote showed the public wants more control on immigration (another reason the Tories are fucked). There’s nothing wrong with that and if doesn’t mean they would elect a far right government. I think the majority are too sensible/boring
They still elected Johnson though, and he's certifiable. The sensible/boring British public voted for this complete fiasco we've had for the last 5 years. Clearly they didn't understand how mental their choice was going to be, but all that means is that they lack the critical thinking skills to understand the consequences of what they're voting for, meaning it could easily happen again. That's my point - the British public cannot be trusted not to make stupid voting decisions on the right hand side of the political spectrum.
-
11 minutes ago, Renton said:
People voted for Bexit across an entire spectrum of lies, from Lexit to outright racism. The people behind it were certainly far right, I wouldn't include Johnson in that group though personally. So I just don't think you can extrapolate from this that the majority of people in the UK are far right leaning, especially as the Tories did not win the popular vote. People are gullible and believed the lies, simple as that. They've belatedly wised up.
Labour will first and foremost give us stability in their first term, competence. I hope you will be pleasantly surprised what they then go on to do., but we'll see. To add btw, I despised Corbyn, still do. But twice I held my nose and voted for him as the lesser of two evils. I would hope those at the left spectrum end of the Labour party could do the same, rather than being a prick like Jones trying to sabotage the party.
Loads of the centrists tried to sabotage Corbyn, so I assume they were all pricks too. Also I voted for two centrist Labour administrations before this. My issue with Starmer, as you know because I keep saying it, is that he fails to deliver anything useful to me across the only two policies that can make any significant difference to the country. Should that change, consider my vote bought.
As for the Brexit point, I didn't say in any post that the majority of people were far right leaning. I said what you have just said, that they were capable of voting for far right insanity, as evidenced by Brexit itself. I think we agree on this point tbh.
-
7 minutes ago, Renton said:
Johnson wasn't voted in to deliver a right wet dream though was he? In fact, arguably the opposite. Brexit was never framed that way, and he promised "levelling up". The culture war bollocks almost exclusively came after he was elected. And even in 2019, more people voted for left leaning parties than right.
Johnson was elected on a promise to please everybody and to do this he lied to everybody. His lies have ultimately been found out and will destroy his party.
As fot GenZ, are they really all enamoured with the likes of Tate? I thought in the UK at least younger people, and increasingly the middled aged, were moving in favour of so called progressive parties. I guess you wouldn't accept Labour as being progressive, but I think you're just wrong on that.
I think that's exactly why he was voted in. "Let's get Brexit done" was the framing of the entire campaign - and Brexit remains, all the way through, a far right wet dream. I don't really understand how him campaigning to deliver a hard brexit (pure enough for the right wing of his party, remember) is somehow something other than a highly desirable right wing fantasy that a lot of people voted for. None of us would have said in 2019 that Johnson's platform was about bettering lives or anything, it was entirely on Brexit.
Unsure of the leanings of the statesmen but Gen Z are definitely in the crosshairs, yes: https://www.newstatesman.com/politics/society/2023/11/gen-z-most-conservative-generation-radical-youth
Labour are presently nothing because we don't know what they stand for. They're a series of assumptions that we're projecting onto them due to our own biases. But tbh I would still vaguely consider them progressive anyway, at least in some areas. That said, I've no idea which areas those are at the moment, just blind optimism tbh.
-
1 minute ago, Renton said:
No, I don't regard him in those terms. He is an authoritarian narcissistic psychopath with zero idealogical principles, an extreme version of Johnson. In the UK, people rejected Johnson once they finally realised what he was (I know it was obvious to us). I can't comment on the US, very different country.
They voted him in to deliver a far right wet dream. There is no escaping that this country is absolutely capable of making batshit voting choices as long as they're on the right of politics. It is surely all the more believable now that Labour have undeniably moved to the right. The Tories went to the right, Labour did, that just moves the centre to the right too. So Braverman, I would argue, isn't far right now - she's right of the new centre.
It is what it is. Gen Z are in trouble too btw, really alarming surge in right wing sentiments coming from them. With the left collapsing as a cultural force, they're being left to channel their frustrations in the way instagram influencers like Tate tell them to. So I don't actually see much optimism for the death of the hard right, there' plenty coming for the Tories to run at.
-
3 minutes ago, Dr Gloom said:
disagree. the majority want boring/sensible centrism and improving living standards
How come the majority voted for Brexit then? The majority have the potential to be incredibly stupid.
-
3 minutes ago, Renton said:
No he wasn't, he was a popularist only interested in himself, zero idealogy. Gloom is right on this. Neither far right nor far left are getting elected in the UK.
Would you consider Trump far right? Asking because he was of course a democrat and swapped over for opportunistic reasons too.
If we're calling Braverman far right, we have to call Johnson the same. Opportunist or not, he delivered the far right wet dream. Actions define us, not words.
-
6 minutes ago, Dr Gloom said:
have you seen the latest polls? last time the tories worked strategically with the brexit party. reform are not being as helpful this time. they want the one nation tories out. they've already pulled them to the right but their job isn't done yet.
if they are successful and some of the more catastrophic polling for the tories comes to pass, we could see the Lib Dems as the new opposition. i think this scenario is farfetched but reform could fuck them if the progressive parties form an alliance and people do vote strategically.
what if labour then governs from the soft right, as you suggest?
what does the future look like for the tories with kemi badenoch, suella braverman or nigel farage as leader? this country will never elect a far right party, just as it will never elect one from the hard left.
Whole world is turning right wing, the left has lost. All that happens is everyone shifts to the right. The Tories will take up their new position as culture warriors first and foremost.
I absolutely believe that this country can and will elect a far right politician. I believe Boris Johnson was/is one.
-
2 minutes ago, Dr Gloom said:
They're on to their third PM of the term since the Brexit deal was agreed, so we weren't that far off. Brexit destroyed the tories, possibly forever
We were saying they wouldn't make it 6 months tbf. The Tories are not dead, they will never be dead. That is the only truth to take from all of this.
-
I guess we shall soon see what splendours Labour have in store for us.
Very little point in arguing about it though, none of us have a fucking clue what they'll do at this point and this board in general has a shocking track record with predictions anyway. Remember when we all thought that the Tories would never see out a full term after Brexit?
-
15 minutes ago, Dr Gloom said:
you're talking about Brown losing in 2010? that one was cyclical. people were ready for change and the tories successfully weaponised the global financial crisis. i can't blame brown too much for that. he got his chance at the top job too late in the end and he was always a bit too dour and a bit too scotish, despite doing some really good things as chancellor and pm (notably leading the world out of global financial meltdown)
miliband fucked it in 2015, i agree. there was space then to oppose austerity and he bottled it. so much of it did hinge on his failure to eat a bacon sandwich and his apparent lack of a personality though - such a shame because he has shown he is a funny likeable bloke in the years since. it's sad so many politicians are scared to show their personality when they have one.
the truth is though that elections are won in the centre. it's once you win power that you can move to the left and actually change the country for the better. i get why he isn't saying anything right now but i'll quick to judge him if he is chicken shit once he's in downing street too.
the labour party has always been a broad church and i wouldn't say you're not welcome. but owen jones and the rest, who are only happy when throwing grenades at the leadership when we're finally on the brink of victory, can see themselves out. if they'd rather try to derail things than try to positively influence future policy then just fuck off.
The centrists did the same to Corbyn for the entirety of his tenure. There was article after article about how unhappy they were and if I recall correctly there was a leadership challenge that they were obliterated in as well.
Taking the partisan glasses off for both sides here, the broad church is dead. Both sides have turned on each other and it is not going to be reversed. To his credit, Starmer has recognised this and instead of trying to placate the left and build bridges, has gone for the soft right. That is all that is happening here IMO. So Labour have shifted right to compensate for the collapse of the broad church, and due to the Tories heading farther right themselves.
The moderate left is now fairly homeless. The one upside for me is that I just do not care anymore. This is the first political conversation I've had in months, whereas it used to be daily. I am now free. The UK sucks, its going to hell, no one is going to prevent that, and I have accepted it. It's nice to re-run the old hits of course..!
-
That sandwich does indeed have a lot to answer for. I wonder how much of that loss was the sandwich, and how much was the Tories successfully attaching the SNP to Labour.
It is a bit of a shame tbh, I think Miliband could have done ok.
Newcastle United: Club Sold To PCP - Official
in Newcastle Forum
Posted
That does make her seem a tad erratic, though I appreciate the Mirror is the Mirror. I like Stavely though, she's been the bridge between club and owners. I hope she's still playing some sort of a role.