Europe --- In or Out

[Rayvin 4949]

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/oct/07/macron-woos-uk-car-firms-over-private-dinner

 

Macron had a business dinner with the heads of major British based car manufacturers to offer them a better environment to operate in - presumably in France.

 

@Christmas Tree

 

France doesn't appear to be behaving in a way that suggests they're about to back down.

[ewerk 26192]

4 minutes ago, Rayvin said:

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/oct/07/macron-woos-uk-car-firms-over-private-dinner

 

Macron had a business dinner with the heads of major British based car manufacturers to offer them a better environment to operate in - presumably in France.

 

@Christmas Tree

 

France doesn't appear to be behaving in a way that suggests they're about to back down.

This is what I’ve previously said. CT has banged on about how no deal hurts the EU but it’s also a massive opportunity for them to attract lots of industry from the U.K. to Europe.

[ewerk 26192]

1 hour ago, Sonatine said:

 

 The fucking state of them. Yet their vote was equal to mine.

’She couldn’t even run McDonalds, or Burger King or the Pound Shop’. Her points of reference speak volumes.

[Alex 30257]

Trying to brainwash them with facts 

[Renton 17633]

53 minutes ago, Rayvin said:

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/oct/07/macron-woos-uk-car-firms-over-private-dinner

 

Macron had a business dinner with the heads of major British based car manufacturers to offer them a better environment to operate in - presumably in France.

 

@Christmas Tree

 

France doesn't appear to be behaving in a way that suggests they're about to back down.

And Nissan is owned by Renault who have plenty of spare capacity in France and, along with all the big car firms, constantly seek to streamline operations, not fucking make them more complex and expensive. And France will be very keen to reduce their chronic unemployment levels.

 

Difficult to predict what's going to happen, isn't it? 

 

It's noticeable btw that unlike most larger European countries, the UK doesn't have a homegrown mass production car company. All came because of access to EU markets, and there's no loyalty from them to remain. 

Edited October 7, 2018 by Renton

[Renton 17633]

It strikes me btw that closest extant deal with the EU the government is seeking is the one TURKEY has. I've got to honest, that really is worse than no deal.

 

[TheGingerQuiff 2412]

2 hours ago, Renton said:

And Nissan is owned by Renault who have plenty of spare capacity in France and, along with all the big car firms, constantly seek to streamline operations, not fucking make them more complex and expensive. And France will be very keen to reduce their chronic unemployment levels.

 

Difficult to predict what's going to happen, isn't it? 

 

It's noticeable btw that unlike most larger European countries, the UK doesn't have a homegrown mass production car company. All came because of access to EU markets, and there's no loyalty from them to remain. 

 

JLR?

[Renton 17633]

59 minutes ago, TheGingerQuiff said:

 

JLR?

Owned by Tata (Indian) aren't they? The only UK manufacturers are super high end (Bentley). If you want to buy British, buy one of them.....

[TheGingerQuiff 2412]

17 minutes ago, Renton said:

Owned by Tata (Indian) aren't they? The only UK manufacturers are super high end (Bentley). If you want to buy British, buy one of them.....

 

They are now, but you said homegrown and their HQ and a chunk of their production is still here as well as most of their R&D etc. There are other considerations other than just EU access why foreign brands produce here though, skills in particular. If not they'd all be in eastern europe where labour is much cheaper.

[Renton 17633]

2 hours ago, TheGingerQuiff said:

 

They are now, but you said homegrown and their HQ and a chunk of their production is still here as well as most of their R&D etc. There are other considerations other than just EU access why foreign brands produce here though, skills in particular. If not they'd all be in eastern europe where labour is much cheaper.

 

But the point remains that unlike Germany, France, Italy and spain, we are particularly vulnerable because there is no UK owned car companies. It's worth pointing out too that Nissan et al were lured here by Thatcher precisely because we were a gateway to Europe and had a relatively cheap operating base. This was before the fall of the Berlin wall of course. If the Japanese companies were looking for a location today then they would probably opt for Eastern Europe.

 

Bottom line is automobile companies are footloose, there is no geographical reason to be in the UK. If conditions change so they cease to be profitable, they'll be off. Most likely it will be a boiled frog scenario as production lines are phased out but in 10 years it's likely they'll all be gone with a Canada type deal. 

[ewerk 26192]

Mercedes withdrew plans to build cars in Sunderland because of the Brexit vote and the loss of EU membership. How many jobs would that have created?

[TheGingerQuiff 2412]

34 minutes ago, Renton said:

 

But the point remains that unlike Germany, France, Italy and spain, we are particularly vulnerable because there is no UK owned car companies. It's worth pointing out too that Nissan et al were lured here by Thatcher precisely because we were a gateway to Europe and had a relatively cheap operating base. This was before the fall of the Berlin wall of course. If the Japanese companies were looking for a location today then they would probably opt for Eastern Europe.

 

Bottom line is automobile companies are footloose, there is no geographical reason to be in the UK. If conditions change so they cease to be profitable, they'll be off. Most likely it will be a boiled frog scenario as production lines are phased out but in 10 years it's likely they'll all be gone with a Canada type deal. 

 

By that reckoning they'll already be looking to move there regardless of what happens? Not sure I get why JLR being foreign owned matters either. They're British in all but ownership and can't see why where the owner is based would make them more or less inclined to move. 

[Renton 17633]

2 hours ago, TheGingerQuiff said:

 

By that reckoning they'll already be looking to move there regardless of what happens? Not sure I get why JLR being foreign owned matters either. They're British in all but ownership and can't see why where the owner is based would make them more or less inclined to move. 

 

So basically not british at all. Does it make a difference? I think it does. Take VW for instance, can you ever imagine them taking all production out of Germany? I can't. But JLR? Tata won't give a single fuck.

 

Its not just car manufacture, there's an alarming lack of UK ownership in lots of key sectors. We've flogged off virtually everything over the years, even to foreign governments. Take nuclear power, i was reading the other day that us leaving EURATOM will have the consequence that ownership of our fissile material will pass on to EDF. Basically the french government will own our uranium ffs. 

 

Id expect even without Brexit some production would drift to eastern EU counries anyway. But which EU country favoured expansion of the EU over further integration? That'd be the UK. We've made our own bed. 

Edited October 7, 2018 by Renton

[Meenzer 13988]

10 hours ago, Renton said:

It strikes me btw that closest extant deal with the EU the government is seeking is the one TURKEY has. I've got to honest, that really is worse than no deal.

 

 

But Turkey is joining the EU, remember? Those leaflets we all got said so, so it must be true. Good news for the UK, we'll be readmitted soon enough! 

[TheGingerQuiff 2412]

2 hours ago, Renton said:

 

So basically not british at all. Does it make a difference? I think it does. Take VW for instance, can you ever imagine them taking all production out of Germany? I can't. But JLR? Tata won't give a single fuck.

 

Its not just car manufacture, there's an alarming lack of UK ownership in lots of key sectors. We've flogged off virtually everything over the years, even to foreign governments. Take nuclear power, i was reading the other day that us leaving EURATOM will have the consequence that ownership of our fissile material will pass on to EDF. Basically the french government will own our uranium ffs. 

 

Id expect even without Brexit some production would drift to eastern EU counries anyway. But which EU country favoured expansion of the EU over further integration? That'd be the UK. We've made our own bed. 

 

People do care about where their cars are made though so I don't think Tata would just up sticks. It'd be a dangerous move, being British defines JLR. In the same way that German cars=efficient. French cars, plastic shite. American cars laughable etc.

[RobinRobin 9172]

3 hours ago, TheGingerQuiff said:

 

People do care about where their cars are made though so I don't think Tata would just up sticks. It'd be a dangerous move, being British defines JLR. In the same way that German cars=efficient. French cars, plastic shite. American cars laughable etc.

But what about import tariffs etc?  Will that impact on where they build?  I don't know the answer, but at the end of the day i would think it will come down to where the best market is for their product.

[Christmas Tree 3997]

Or they do what Nissan are doing and get overseas parts suppliers to set up in the U.K. creating more jobs.

 

[TheGingerQuiff 2412]

1 hour ago, RobinRobin said:

But what about import tariffs etc?  Will that impact on where they build?  I don't know the answer, but at the end of the day i would think it will come down to where the best market is for their product.

 

Their "product" fundamentally changes the day they leave Britain though. They're multinational already like all of the big players so they'd adapt accordingly but they won't be nonchalantly upping sticks and leaving the UK, and Tata being Indian doesn't increase the likelihood of that. Imo anyway

Edited October 8, 2018 by TheGingerQuiff

[PaddockLad 14528]

14 minutes ago, Christmas Tree said:

Or they do what Nissan are doing and get overseas parts suppliers to set up in the U.K. creating more jobs.

 

 

So they’re setting up in the UK to import the parts that Nissan needs from overseas? Won’t these parts be subject to tariffs after the end of next March regardless of whether they have branches set up in the UK or not, which is almost certainly the current situation anyway, seeing as they are already importing parts for Nissan? Feel free to correct anything I’ve got wrong here, am not claiming to be an expert...

[Christmas Tree 3997]

7 minutes ago, PaddockLad said:

 

So they’re setting up in the UK to import the parts that Nissan needs from overseas? Won’t these parts be subject to tariffs after the end of next March regardless of whether they have branches set up in the UK or not, which is almost certainly the current situation anyway, seeing as they are already importing parts for Nissan? Feel free to correct anything I’ve got wrong here, am not claiming to be an expert...

 

My understanding is that they are getting the suppliers of those parts to open new production sites in the UK next to the Nissan plant. 

 

Tarrifs are not not going to be an issue imo as at minimum, a free trade deal will be struck. No way EU wants the extra tarrif costs on all their cars coming here.

 

 

[Renton 17633]

1 hour ago, Christmas Tree said:

Or they do what Nissan are doing and get overseas parts suppliers to set up in the U.K. creating more jobs.

 

Source?

 

85% of Nissans supply chain is imported. Good luck replacing that in 6 months, 2 years evwn. 

[Renton 17633]

36 minutes ago, Christmas Tree said:

 

My understanding is that they are getting the suppliers of those parts to open new production sites in the UK next to the Nissan plant. 

 

Tarrifs are not not going to be an issue imo as at minimum, a free trade deal will be struck. No way EU wants the extra tarrif costs on all their cars coming here.

 

 

 

I agree with your last sentence. Think about what you are saying though. Nissan works on economies of scale, EU suppliers supply the whole UK. There would be a massive inefficiency supplying UK firms only. And exporting would have the same JiT isues.

 

You are aware that the only notable economist supporting Brexit accepts it decimate UK manufacturing? 

[Rayvin 4949]

4 hours ago, Christmas Tree said:

 

My understanding is that they are getting the suppliers of those parts to open new production sites in the UK next to the Nissan plant. 

 

Tarrifs are not not going to be an issue imo as at minimum, a free trade deal will be struck. No way EU wants the extra tarrif costs on all their cars coming here.

 

 

 

The only argument I can think of for this, is that relocating their operations to mainland Europe would be costly and expensive, moreso than presumably sponsoring the move of their suppliers to the UK. Nissan would have to pay for the latter, surely. Although I'm puzzled, if these companies are prepared to move to the UK, why don't British companies just replace them anyway? Presumably because labour costs are too high here to make them competitive. Which is the same problem that these newly located businesses will have if they set up shop in the UK.

[Renton 17633]

4 minutes ago, Rayvin said:

 

The only argument I can think of for this, is that relocating their operations to mainland Europe would be costly and expensive, moreso than presumably sponsoring the move of their suppliers to the UK. Nissan would have to pay for the latter, surely. Although I'm puzzled, if these companies are prepared to move to the UK, why don't British companies just replace them anyway? Presumably because labour costs are too high here to make them competitive. Which is the same problem that these newly located businesses will have if they set up shop in the UK.

 

It's an insane sunlit uplands unicorn fantasy. Companies aren't going to spring up overnight to supply Nissan. Nobody really believes this, not even the most ardent Brexiter fantasist. The reality is the exact opposite will happen. Supply chain companies will die as Nissan phases out UK production. 

[Rayvin 4949]

It will require government subsidy. Only way it can work, surely. Unless they're about to get rid of the minimum wage.