Europe --- In or Out

[Renton 17759]

Just now, Rayvin said:

 

Is this deal good enough that we should back it then? I mean what's happening to freedom of movement? Is that staying?

 

I think FoM will also have a name change. Personally at this stage I'd accept this shit compromise to avoid no deal which may be the only other option.

[ewerk 26317]

Just now, Rayvin said:

 

Is this deal good enough that we should back it then? I mean what's happening to freedom of movement? Is that staying?

I can't see freedom of movement remaining. That would be a total capitulation for the UK that would have zero chance of getting the Leavers' backing.

[ewerk 26317]

Just now, Renton said:

 

I think FoM will also have a name change. Personally at this stage I'd accept this shit compromise to avoid no deal which may be the only other option.

And that's how they split the vote.

There's no deal as good as what we have. Given the three options on the ballot paper I'd vote to remain.

[Rayvin 4964]

Then fuck it, I'm sticking in for a second vote. Freedom of Movement was basically the only thing I cared about personally. If it means No Deal in the end, oh well.

[Renton 17759]

8 minutes ago, Rayvin said:

Then fuck it, I'm sticking in for a second vote. Freedom of Movement was basically the only thing I cared about personally. If it means No Deal in the end, oh well.

Really? You didn't care about the economy, or the Irish border, or Scotland? If you think no deal is "oh well", you're in for a hell of a shock. 

[Meenzer 14040]

16 minutes ago, ewerk said:

What is it with cunts and all the war/colonial comparisons?

 

 

We're thick as fuck, like. Totally sold on the story of our glorious past to the point of ignoring modern reality.

[ewerk 26317]

Aye, was it Piers Morgan last night asking how we survived for centuries before the EU? Maybe we should go back to sailing round the world colonising weaker countries and stripping them of their natural resources.

Most of the people blowing about the past know better but it washes with the plebs like CT with great success.

[NJS 3978]

I've heard/read several "we used to rule seas" type statements from leavers since the ref - hence the remark about wanting to return not to the 1950s but to the 1590s.

[Meenzer 14040]

A return to rum, sodomy and the lash.

 

Sounds alright actually

[Dr Gloom 19819]

37 minutes ago, Renton said:

It confirms a few things. First, the EU have played a blinder, and have us exactly where they want us, potentially in perpetuity. Second, this could only happen because as we thought we have no leverage. And third, no deal is a complete bluff which no PM could sanction. What a pyhrric victory this has been for Leave. Pathetic. 

no deal has never been an option. forget no deal is better than a bad deal - no Tory PM would oversee it

39 minutes ago, ewerk said:

Well that's when a People's Vote becomes a realistic option. Of course Labour will push for a GE but I can't see that happening. So assuming that parliament can't agree a collective vision for the deal then a PV is pretty much the only option IMO.

may won't oversee no deal, neither will she put forward the legislation in parliament that could see brexit reversed. i don't see any outcome other than another new election, which will essentially be a second referendum 

[ewerk 26317]

1 minute ago, Dr Gloom said:

may won't oversee no deal, neither will she put forward the legislation in parliament that could see brexit reversed. i don't see any outcome other than another new election, which will essentially be a second referendum 

A GE doesn't necessarily solve the problem. Labour won't pledge to reverse Brexit, they'll just say that they can negotiate a better deal. And I think that May is too scared of an election campaign to call one.

[Dr Gloom 19819]

Just now, ewerk said:

A GE doesn't necessarily solve the problem. Labour won't pledge to reverse Brexit, they'll just say that they can negotiate a better deal. And I think that May is too scared of an election campaign to call one.

i didn't say it would solve the problem. 

[ewerk 26317]

So a PV is the only way to resolve things. Everyone agreed? Good.

[Dr Gloom 19819]

an election would be a chance for corbyn to abandon his eurosceptic 'principals' and listen to the party membership. he's the one who is banging on about making the party more democratic. 

a PV scares me, i think it's our best chance of reversing the whole thing but it is a punt. and i don't see it happening. 

Edited November 14, 2018 by Dr Gloom

[ewerk 26317]

Corbyn has refused to listen to the membership so far, why would that suddenly change in the event of a GE? We can only hope that he's overruled by those writing the manifesto.

[ewerk 26317]

51 minutes ago, ewerk said:

What is it with cunts and all the war/colonial comparisons? And wasn't he arguing for a Norway deal before the referendum?

 

And again...

 

[PaddockLad 14584]

2 groups happy with this "deal":

 

1. The EU

2. The CoL & various  corporate behemoths. 

 

 

Go figure

 

 

[ewerk 26317]

It'd be interesting to see whether the ERG would back a PV.

[NJS 3978]

14 minutes ago, Dr Gloom said:

an election would be a chance for corbyn to abandon his eurosceptic 'principals' and listen to the party membership. he's the one who is banging on about making the party more democratic. 

a PV scares me, i think it's our best chance of reversing the whole thing but it is a punt. and i don't see it happening. 

Maybe "scares" is the wrong word but as I've said, I think those assuming its outcome are taking it too much for granted. 

[Christmas Tree 3997]

2nd ref might deliver an even bigger leave win given that you would be hearing the following....

 

EU making us vote again

Elite making us vote again

Osbournes project fear never happened

EU army is real

etc etc etc

 

 

[Renton 17759]

Quote

U.K. Prime Minister Theresa May will ask her cabinet to back her draft Brexit deal on Wednesday, despite the fact that she might still fail to get it past her own Conservative Party.

Here’s what’s said to be in the terms of the U.K.’s divorce deal so far, according to officials briefed on its contents.

The Irish Border

This was the hardest part to negotiate but convincing May’s own side to back it could be even more difficult. Under the terms of the so-called backstop guarantee -- designed to avoid border checks on goods crossing the land frontier with Ireland -- the whole U.K. will be in a customs union with the EU.

There will be no way for the U.K. to unilaterally leave that backstop arrangement, despite May’s efforts to secure a suitable exit mechanism.

What it means: This is a toxic combination for pro-Brexit Tories in May’s team who want to “take back control” of British laws, tariffs and borders, and strike free trade deals around the world.

The British Border

May wanted to avoid a new customs border in the Irish Sea, separating mainland Britain from Northern Ireland. But Northern Ireland will be more deeply embedded in the EU’s customs union than the rest of the U.K. because it will sign up to the EU’s full customs code, according to three European officials and one British official.

The treaty will set out differences between the treatment of Northern Ireland and the rest of the U.K., according to diplomats. Northern Ireland will stick to some of the EU’s single market rules for goods so that food and agriculture products can cross the Irish border without red tape.

This is a major risk for May. In order to stay in power, she relies on the votes of Northern Ireland’s Democratic Unionist Party in Parliament. They have vowed to oppose any deal that keeps Northern Ireland in a different customs or regulatory regime from the rest of Britain.

Level Playing Field

It’s not just the customs union. The U.K. will also sign up to EU single market regulations on good standards and “level playing field” trade commitments. That means the country will stay aligned to European state aid, competition and social and environmental rules.

The Trap

May’s pro-Brexit ministers initially demanded a fixed end date to the backstop, to ensure the U.K. wouldn’t be kept captive inside the EU customs union forever. The EU refused, insisting that there could not be a time limit to a guarantee clause that might be needed indefinitely.

Instead, the deal offers a review mechanism, but it does not give the U.K. the power to unilaterally withdraw from the backstop.

Again, this is unacceptable to hardline Brexit supporters in May’s Tory party.

Legal Advice

May is facing calls to give the cabinet the full private legal advice spelling out why exactly her deal is worth supporting -- and especially how it can reassure pro-Brexit ministers that the U.K. can’t be kept against its will in the backstop customs arrangements forever.

Instead, she’s provided a summary of that legal opinion, produced by Attorney General Geoffrey Cox, and it gives no comfort to worried ministers.

According to one person familiar with the matter, the summary legal advice won’t help May. It makes clear that she failed to negotiate any meaningful new mechanism to give the U.K. more control over how long it will be forced to stay in the backstop regime.

The Money

Toward the end of the transitional period in 2020, the U.K. will be able to choose between extending these existing status quo trade terms -- at a price of continuing its annual payments of about 10 billion pounds ($13 billion) to the EU -- or dropping out of the single market and customs union and into the Irish border backstop.

That would mean no need for such payments, but it would also mean committing to keeping inside the EU’s customs regime indefinitely.

Future Partnership

The 600-page divorce deal also contains a far shorter blueprint for the future relationship between the U.K. and the EU.

This draft makes clear that the backstop arrangement for Northern Ireland will set the baseline for friction-free tradeacross the Irish border for the long term. Any future trade deal must provide as a minimum the same open border on the island of Ireland.

The draft text holds out the prospect -- which Brexit backers crave -- of a slimmed down, Canada-style free trade agreement. But it will only be for mainland Britain. If the government chooses such a deal, Northern Ireland will have to remain inside the backstop customs regime of the EU while the rest of the country goes its separate way.

Such an outcome will be unacceptable to Tories who value the union of the United Kingdom, and those DUP politicians who prop up May’s minority government.

 

This is from Bloomberg. No chance it's getting past parliament if this is true. 

Edited November 14, 2018 by Renton

[Renton 17759]

4 minutes ago, Christmas Tree said:

2nd ref might deliver an even bigger leave win given that you would be hearing the following....

 

EU making us vote again

Elite making us vote again

Osbournes project fear never happened

EU army is real

etc etc etc

 

 

All those points are rubbish though, including the last one if we stay in. I'm not a fan of a PV though because, yes, I fear the stupidity of the CT gammons who think like you.  

 

A quick question CT, so you admit this deal is fucking atrocious? If so, what dies that tell you about the relative leverage of the EU and UK, and the feasibility of no deal? 

[Christmas Tree 3997]

Do we think there will be resignations this afternoon?

[Christmas Tree 3997]

1 minute ago, Renton said:

All those points are rubbish though, including the last one if we stay in. I'm not a fan of a PV though because, yes, I fear the stupidity of the CT gammons who think like you.  

 

Im not saying are good, I’m simply saying how it will be framed.

[Renton 17759]

5 minutes ago, Christmas Tree said:

Do we think there will be resignations this afternoon?

My guess is no. Cabinet will hang outAy to dry in front of parliament.