Christmas Tree 3997 Posted November 16, 2018 Author Share Posted November 16, 2018 Interesting. Sir Desmond Swayne, eurosceptic, just interviewed on Sky news saying he could well vote for Mays deal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rayvin 4964 Posted November 16, 2018 Share Posted November 16, 2018 Yeah there have been some Lib Dems saying that as well but CT, there just isn't enough of them to get past Labour, the SNP, and the ERG. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Christmas Tree 3997 Posted November 16, 2018 Author Share Posted November 16, 2018 4 minutes ago, Rayvin said: Yeah there have been some Lib Dems saying that as well but CT, there just isn't enough of them to get past Labour, the SNP, and the ERG. Well, given she stays I’ve told you what could happen. It will be clearer in 7 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rayvin 4964 Posted November 16, 2018 Share Posted November 16, 2018 5 minutes ago, Christmas Tree said: Well, given she stays I’ve told you what could happen. It will be clearer in 7 days. I believe she'll stay, but am positive her deal will not. I really don't know why you have such faith in her on this. Are you that desperate not to be wrong about all of this that you're blinding yourself to the most likely outcomes? As much as I wanted Corbyn to renew Labour, i had to accept that it just hasn't worked. What is it going to take with you and May? She's literally going to have to have her head on a pike outside parliament for you to think she's lost, by the sounds of it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Christmas Tree 3997 Posted November 16, 2018 Author Share Posted November 16, 2018 1 minute ago, Rayvin said: I believe she'll stay, but am positive her deal will not. I really don't know why you have such faith in her on this. Are you that desperate not to be wrong about all of this that you're blinding yourself to the most likely outcomes? As much as I wanted Corbyn to renew Labour, i had to accept that it just hasn't worked. What is it going to take with you and May? She's literally going to have to have her head on a pike outside parliament for you to think she's lost, by the sounds of it. No, I’m definitely not 100% saying this will happen, I’m simply looking at the way the news cycle happens and the alternatives. The biggest majority in Parliament is for avoiding no deal. This delivers it. Once the draaama of these few days is over, the government PR (I’ll not detail again), will kick in. Eurosceptics are considering backing it and Labour MP’s. Once MP’s get back to their constituents and hear from happy businesses desperate for certainty they are going to come under increasing pressure to back it, particularly if as currently, it’s deal or no deal. So far she’s soaked up the kicking, got remainers and leavers on side. It’s all about where momentum goes from here. ( not that momentum). This from a Labour MP this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ewerk 26285 Posted November 16, 2018 Share Posted November 16, 2018 There were always going to be some resignations over the deal. Looks to me like May has stemmed the flood and essentially hasn't lost any of Cabinet's big hitters. A decent result for her. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rayvin 4964 Posted November 16, 2018 Share Posted November 16, 2018 8 minutes ago, Christmas Tree said: No, I’m definitely not 100% saying this will happen, I’m simply looking at the way the news cycle happens and the alternatives. The biggest majority in Parliament is for avoiding no deal. This delivers it. Once the draaama of these few days is over, the government PR (I’ll not detail again), will kick in. Eurosceptics are considering backing it and Labour MP’s. Once MP’s get back to their constituents and hear from happy businesses desperate for certainty they are going to come under increasing pressure to back it, particularly if as currently, it’s deal or no deal. So far she’s soaked up the kicking, got remainers and leavers on side. It’s all about where momentum goes from here. ( not that momentum). This from a Labour MP this morning. Well, it'll be a lack of balls that sees us into her deal then, if it does happen. It's the only scenario that leaves the Tories as an electable force, so on that basis I guess i should expect half of Labour to vote for it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Christmas Tree 3997 Posted November 16, 2018 Author Share Posted November 16, 2018 5 minutes ago, ewerk said: There were always going to be some resignations over the deal. Looks to me like May has stemmed the flood and essentially hasn't lost any of Cabinet's big hitters. A decent result for her. Mans according to sources close to Graham Brady, not 48 letters in. ERG & JRM looking weak. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rayvin 4964 Posted November 16, 2018 Share Posted November 16, 2018 4 minutes ago, Christmas Tree said: Mans according to sources close to Graham Brady, not 48 letters in. ERG & JRM looking weak. They just don't have the numbers to make a vote of no confidence count for anything. No one is going to want to hand them the reigns, so what's the point. Their chance to do damage is the parliamentary vote. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Christmas Tree 3997 Posted November 16, 2018 Author Share Posted November 16, 2018 Also, the most corrupt thing in British politics is Labours fluff that they could negotiate a super duper Brexit deal (Their six tests). It’s worked well politically while Mays deal was unknown, but now that’s going to come under a lot more challenge in the coming weeks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Christmas Tree 3997 Posted November 16, 2018 Author Share Posted November 16, 2018 3 minutes ago, Rayvin said: They just don't have the numbers to make a vote of no confidence count for anything. No one is going to want to hand them the reigns, so what's the point. Their chance to do damage is the parliamentary vote. Could be argued that by defeating them May is even stronger. That momentum again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rayvin 4964 Posted November 16, 2018 Share Posted November 16, 2018 4 minutes ago, Christmas Tree said: Also, the most corrupt thing in British politics is Labours fluff that they could negotiate a super duper Brexit deal (Their six tests). It’s worked well politically while Mays deal was unknown, but now that’s going to come under a lot more challenge in the coming weeks. That is a long way from the most corrupt thing in British politics and you know it. The Tories argued they could get a great deal and look what we have. Plenty of other Tories are saying No Deal is in the national interest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rayvin 4964 Posted November 16, 2018 Share Posted November 16, 2018 3 minutes ago, Christmas Tree said: Could be argued that by defeating them May is even stronger. That momentum again It's not her personal credibility that is being voted on though, it's the deal. She isn't the next Thatcher man, she cant strong arm this through by force of will. The deal will be voted for or against based on its merits and background political fear about alternatives. That's it. No one is going to vote for it because they think May is a strong leader. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ewerk 26285 Posted November 16, 2018 Share Posted November 16, 2018 Well it's happened, the civil unrest we expected with this deal has spilled out onto the streets. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Renton 17746 Posted November 16, 2018 Share Posted November 16, 2018 9 minutes ago, Christmas Tree said: Also, the most corrupt thing in British politics is Labours fluff that they could negotiate a super duper Brexit deal (Their six tests). It’s worked well politically while Mays deal was unknown, but now that’s going to come under a lot more challenge in the coming weeks. The six test were directly taken from what the Leave campaign promised. What's corrupt about holding people to their promises? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Renton 17746 Posted November 16, 2018 Share Posted November 16, 2018 BTW, ignore the JRM graphic, I can't delete the cunt. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Renton 17746 Posted November 16, 2018 Share Posted November 16, 2018 The ERG will not be talked round to support this deal. The main issue is the backstop obviously. The fact we can't unilaterally end it is actually a real loss if sovereignty. The irony. Everybody knows hand on heart the backstop will he permanent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ewerk 26285 Posted November 16, 2018 Share Posted November 16, 2018 It will be permanent for NI. There's no reason for it to be permanent for GB. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Renton 17746 Posted November 16, 2018 Share Posted November 16, 2018 (edited) 5 minutes ago, ewerk said: It will be permanent for NI. There's no reason for it to be permanent for GB. Is a wet border really ever acceptable? But anyway, my guess is that we will never have the capacity or will to get Dr Fox's special deals, they don't exist anyway. It'll be a permanent CU and, if we want JIT, most likely de facto SM membership, again, permanently. Edited November 16, 2018 by Renton Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Christmas Tree 3997 Posted November 16, 2018 Author Share Posted November 16, 2018 33 minutes ago, Renton said: The six test were directly taken from what the Leave campaign promised. What's corrupt about holding people to their promises? That’s the issue though now, the narrative will move from holding people responsible to what Labour will actually deliver should they get in. Will they hold themselves to the six tests? If not, what do they believe they can get. Staying in the single market / keeping FOM. Staying in the CU / giving up trade deals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJS 3977 Posted November 16, 2018 Share Posted November 16, 2018 Surely people have now realised these great trade deals are a myth? Even wto is a minefield. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
trooper 940 Posted November 16, 2018 Share Posted November 16, 2018 48 no confidence letters reached its game on for May Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alex 30376 Posted November 16, 2018 Share Posted November 16, 2018 As CT perfectly demonstrates realising something and admitting it are two different things Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Christmas Tree 3997 Posted November 16, 2018 Author Share Posted November 16, 2018 1 minute ago, trooper said: 48 no confidence letters reached its game on for May Nobody knows til Graham Brady pipes up. He hasn’t. She’ll romp home regardless. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Renton 17746 Posted November 16, 2018 Share Posted November 16, 2018 18 minutes ago, NJS said: Surely people have now realised these great trade deals are a myth? Even wto is a minefield. Trade deals are easy. Piece of piss. I mean, look how easily we have negotiated one with the EU. The US and China are shitting themselves. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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