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Europe --- In or Out


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56 minutes ago, Renton said:

Juncker now saying he's not optimistic a no deal can be avoided. Time for panic buying yet? Over we go!

We can’t have it because of the Irish border though, surely? That’s the EU’s red line

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2 minutes ago, Dr Gloom said:

We can’t have it because of the Irish border though, surely? That’s the EU’s red line

 

Pay attention Gloom. No deal is the default, the EU can't stop us. It's up to May now, but there are some very worrying signs she is prepared to destroy the country (and peace in Ireland) right now. Junckers comments today are alarming, as we're Tusks a week or 2 ago. 

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Just now, Rayvin said:

How can Theresa May possibly be so wedded to Brexit that she would allow this to happen. How. How does she have the power to do this, what the actual fuck.

 

She had the power to do it when she enacted A50 with parliament's consent. 

 

Everybody I can think of who has a clue on the mechanics say that No Deal is a very likely outcome now. 

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2 minutes ago, Renton said:

 

She had the power to do it when she enacted A50 with parliament's consent. 

 

Everybody I can think of who has a clue on the mechanics say that No Deal is a very likely outcome now. 

 

But her view is that if she leaves it late, people will vote for her deal because No Deal is worse. That might happen tbf although it would be an absolute disgrace.

Edited by Rayvin
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I mean think about it, assume May actually wants a no deal. Her time wasting antics are entirely consistent with her actually aiming for this. Going back to Brussels is just more time wasting, the ERG will never be appeased. Parliament is paralysed but we are inextricably drawn to the cliff. 

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1 minute ago, Rayvin said:

 

But her view is that if she leaves it late, people will vote for her deal because No Deal is worse. That might happen tbf although it would be an absolute disgrace.

 

How will it happen? And if it doesn't, then what? 

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6 minutes ago, Rayvin said:

I think the view is that Parliament becomes so desperate for something that isn't no deal, it just votes it through.

 

NI be damned.

NI be damned? The backstop is good for NI. 

 

The ERG aren't voting for this, or the DUP. Maybe not all the independents. The SNP? Labour? 

 

She's not reaching out to any opposition. Corbyn is a no deal Brexiter so will whip his party to oppose or abstain. Do you really think she can get it through? The EU clearly doesn't. 

Edited by Renton
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Is Corbyn a no deal Brexiter? I'm not sure he is you know. I've seen a lot of evidence that he's a Brexiter but nothing that he's a no deal one. He seems more adamant that no deal should be avoided than he is about anything else.

 

I'm not saying she necessarily can, I'm saying that this appears to be her angle and that running down the clock plays into her hands.

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1 minute ago, NJS said:

I still think her no deal threat is just an arm twister for her deal - as Starmer has said today. 

 

Well me too but it does appear to only present two options as Starmer has said, and it's hopelessly irresponsible.

 

The thing is as well, if we get no deal and crash out, they'll do a poll a couple of weeks later "would you prefer to be in the EU". It'll be up to 70% remain or something like that. Almost inevitably.

Edited by Rayvin
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18 minutes ago, Renton said:

 

Pay attention Gloom. No deal is the default, the EU can't stop us. It's up to May now, but there are some very worrying signs she is prepared to destroy the country (and peace in Ireland) right now. Junckers comments today are alarming, as we're Tusks a week or 2 ago. 

I know it’s the default but neither side wants it so for that reason I don’t think it’ll happen.

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2 minutes ago, Rayvin said:

Is Corbyn a no deal Brexiter? I'm not sure he is you know. I've seen a lot of evidence that he's a Brexiter but nothing that he's a no deal one. He seems more adamant that no deal should be avoided than he is about anything else.

 

I'm not saying she necessarily can, I'm saying that this appears to be her angle and that running down the clock plays into her hands.

 

I think he's a disaster socialist tbh. Will he whip his party to support the WA which hasn't even superficially changed? I doubt it. 

 

So let's assume May's bluss is called. Then what? 

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Just now, Dr Gloom said:

I know it’s the default but neither side wants it so for that reason I don’t think it’ll happen.

Things happen all the time which no side really wants. The mechanism to stop it is purely with the executive (May). 

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1 hour ago, Renton said:


I'm going to start buying plenty of pasta and rice, tins, sauces. I've got no storage space for fresh food or frozen food though. 

 

If it gets as far as there being food shortages, there'll definitely be power outages too, so no problem. :good: 

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2 minutes ago, Renton said:

Things happen all the time which no side really wants. The mechanism to stop it is purely with the executive (May). 

i don’t believe she wants it either. 

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How is Theresa May possibly going to look at presiding over No Deal and the absolute fucking hell that would produce, and think that this is worth it. She cannot be that much of a psycho. Unless she literally fucking resigns the moment her deal gets knocked on the head and fucking hell, I can almost see it actually. Her deal voted down, no deal all but a certainty, May resigns, Parliament is a shambles, we'd have... fucking who in control? Who becomes leader by default? We'd inevitably have to go for a GE at that point. You would fucking hope that Parliament would cancel A50 as a matter of national security, but do any of them have the stones to do so?

 

That's it though tbh - I think she'll just resign if her deal doesn't go through.

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Just now, Rayvin said:

How is Theresa May possibly going to look at presiding over No Deal and the absolute fucking hell that would produce, and think that this is worth it. She cannot be that much of a psycho. Unless she literally fucking resigns the moment her deal gets knocked on the head and fucking hell, I can almost see it actually. Her deal voted down, no deal all but a certainty, May resigns, Parliament is a shambles, we'd have... fucking who in control? Who becomes leader by default? We'd inevitably have to go for a GE at that point. You would fucking hope that Parliament would cancel A50 as a matter of national security, but do any of them have the stones to do so?

 

That's it though tbh - I think she'll just resign if her deal doesn't go through.

Yeah either resignation, forcing a GE and an extension of A50, which the EU will back, or a watered down version of her shit deal is passed. The second option means the EU budging so possibly less likely, though they've already hinted they would accept a softer exit with fewer red lines 

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2 minutes ago, Rayvin said:

How is Theresa May possibly going to look at presiding over No Deal and the absolute fucking hell that would produce, and think that this is worth it. She cannot be that much of a psycho. Unless she literally fucking resigns the moment her deal gets knocked on the head and fucking hell, I can almost see it actually. Her deal voted down, no deal all but a certainty, May resigns, Parliament is a shambles, we'd have... fucking who in control? Who becomes leader by default? We'd inevitably have to go for a GE at that point. You would fucking hope that Parliament would cancel A50 as a matter of national security, but do any of them have the stones to do so?

 

That's it though tbh - I think she'll just resign if her deal doesn't go through.

 

Good question. If that happens there is no executive to cancel A50 and we go over by default. A GE just isn't in the time frame and really solves fuck all. 

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