Rayvin 4964 Posted October 17, 2019 Share Posted October 17, 2019 4 minutes ago, Dr Gloom said: i don't think there is a majority for anything in parliament tbh  Then it'll be No Deal and Boris still wins. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meenzer 14031 Posted October 17, 2019 Share Posted October 17, 2019 Parliament will be won over by the sheer crackingness of the deal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dr Gloom 19806 Posted October 17, 2019 Share Posted October 17, 2019 no deal won't be allowed to happen Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rayvin 4964 Posted October 17, 2019 Share Posted October 17, 2019 The irony to all of this course is that it appears to be the EU who are totally in control of this. Â "Wait till the last minute to get a deal, it's when you see the whites of your opponents eyes" - The UK waited, the EU saw the whites of our eyes and we conceded on basically everything. Â "No Deal is a negotiating gambit to get a better deal" - the EU, the party in the position of strength, seems to be about to use no deal to force the UK to vote for a very EU friendly deal because they know we fear it more. Â Aside from Brexit itself, the UK is being humiliated here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rayvin 4964 Posted October 17, 2019 Share Posted October 17, 2019 1 minute ago, Dr Gloom said: no deal won't be allowed to happen  How? If the EU say it's this deal or bust, how are we going to force them to give us an extension? If Johnson has secured that statement from them, we're fucked. Because if we don't vote for this deal, it's either revoke or No Deal. And of the two former options, I think they'll take the deal over revoke. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ewerk 26282 Posted October 17, 2019 Share Posted October 17, 2019 On 10/15/2019 at 16:42, ewerk said: Any of them who voted for May's deal will vote for this. The committment to a level playing field will see many of the ERG out but may well see several Labour rebels back the deal. The DUP are almost definitely out. My hunch is that I can't see him getting the votes for this but it might be tight. So we have the committment to a level playing field and the backstop has seen the DUP oppose. The situation remains that there is a chance of getting this through Parliament but it's definitely odds against. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dr Gloom 19806 Posted October 17, 2019 Share Posted October 17, 2019 4 minutes ago, Rayvin said:  How? If the EU say it's this deal or bust, how are we going to force them to give us an extension? If Johnson has secured that statement from them, we're fucked. Because if we don't vote for this deal, it's either revoke or No Deal. And of the two former options, I think they'll take the deal over revoke. revoke Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rayvin 4964 Posted October 17, 2019 Share Posted October 17, 2019 Just now, Dr Gloom said: revoke  Why are people so confident that Parliament will do this over a Johnson deal? The 19 Labour rebels won't even countenance a second referendum, let alone revoke. I doubt the Tory rebels could bring themselves to choose that over a deal as well.  Parliament is going to be very aware that voting down this deal means that we're looking at either No Deal or Revoke, and against the uncertain backdrop of that final choice, I think they'll take the deal. Johnson thinks they will, and the EU thinks they will (assuming the EU are indeed going to back Johnson up on this and make clear that any further extensions are going to be technical only). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rayvin 4964 Posted October 17, 2019 Share Posted October 17, 2019 4 minutes ago, ewerk said: So we have the committment to a level playing field and the backstop has seen the DUP oppose. The situation remains that there is a chance of getting this through Parliament but it's definitely odds against. Â Why is it odds against? Â Â Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dr Gloom 19806 Posted October 17, 2019 Share Posted October 17, 2019 4 minutes ago, Rayvin said:  Why are people so confident that Parliament will do this over a Johnson deal? The 19 Labour rebels won't even countenance a second referendum, let alone revoke. I doubt the Tory rebels could bring themselves to choose that over a deal as well.  Parliament is going to be very aware that voting down this deal means that we're looking at either No Deal or Revoke, and against the uncertain backdrop of that final choice, I think they'll take the deal. Johnson thinks they will, and the EU thinks they will (assuming the EU are indeed going to back Johnson up on this and make clear that any further extensions are going to be technical only). I’m not at all confident Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rayvin 4964 Posted October 17, 2019 Share Posted October 17, 2019 Just now, Dr Gloom said: I’m not at all confident  The only chance we stand, I think, is a coherent remain movement insisting on a second referendum amendment to the deal. Well thought out and planned beforehand.  So we're fucked. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ewerk 26282 Posted October 17, 2019 Share Posted October 17, 2019 2 minutes ago, Rayvin said: Â Why is it odds against? Â Â Because he's not going have the DUP, several of the ERG and the ex-Tories voting with him. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rayvin 4964 Posted October 17, 2019 Share Posted October 17, 2019 Just now, ewerk said: Because he's not going have the DUP, several of the ERG and the ex-Tories voting with him. Â What makes you so sure that the ERG won't vote for this? I don't think they're a principled bunch, I think they'll recognise that this is the only game in town for Brexit, and they'll cave and vote it through. I suspect it'll be: Â Almost all Tories + 19 Labour rebels + at least half of the Tory rebels, probably including Ken Clarke, Rudd, and a handful of others. Grieve and Boles may sit it out, along with any who joined the LDs, but many will go for it. 288 + 19 + 14 Tory rebels would do it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rayvin 4964 Posted October 17, 2019 Share Posted October 17, 2019 Â Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Renton 17744 Posted October 17, 2019 Share Posted October 17, 2019 (edited) 20 minutes ago, ewerk said: So we have the committment to a level playing field  Do we? Is this confirmed and legally entrenched in the new WA? And @Rayvin, have I missed the bit the EU have said it is this deal or nothing, that they won't accept a Benn extension? Edited October 17, 2019 by Renton Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Renton 17744 Posted October 17, 2019 Share Posted October 17, 2019 3 minutes ago, Rayvin said:   Then he has to resign. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Renton 17744 Posted October 17, 2019 Share Posted October 17, 2019 4 minutes ago, Rayvin said: Â Also, this will encourage the ERG to vote against the deal, won't it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rayvin 4964 Posted October 17, 2019 Share Posted October 17, 2019 1 minute ago, Renton said:  Do we? Is this confirmed and legally entrenched in the new WA? And @Rayvin, have I missed the bit the EU have said it is no deal or nothing, that they won't accept a Benn extension?  Sorry no, it was speculated by the Spectator's political editor as the government's trump card and given how this is unfolding I think they're probably right.  2 minutes ago, Renton said:  Then he has to resign.  The only reason for him to say that is to bolster his credentials ahead of a GE. It's irrelevant to the actual discourse - but for him to be confident enough to state it, he must have either the expectation that his deal will go through, or the EU's guarantee of the previous point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rayvin 4964 Posted October 17, 2019 Share Posted October 17, 2019 2 minutes ago, Renton said: Also, this will encourage the ERG to vote against the deal, won't it? Â Unless he's talking to them and has revealed that it's just posturing for a subsequent election. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ewerk 26282 Posted October 17, 2019 Share Posted October 17, 2019 10 minutes ago, Rayvin said:  What makes you so sure that the ERG won't vote for this? I don't think they're a principled bunch, I think they'll recognise that this is the only game in town for Brexit, and they'll cave and vote it through. I suspect it'll be:  Almost all Tories + 19 Labour rebels + at least half of the Tory rebels, probably including Ken Clarke, Rudd, and a handful of others. Grieve and Boles may sit it out, along with any who joined the LDs, but many will go for it. 288 + 19 + 14 Tory rebels would do it. IDS has reserved judgement and appears to be leaning towards the DUP’s views. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ewerk 26282 Posted October 17, 2019 Share Posted October 17, 2019 7 minutes ago, Renton said:  Do we? Is this confirmed and legally entrenched in the new WA? And @Rayvin, have I missed the bit the EU have said it is this deal or nothing, that they won't accept a Benn extension? I believe it’s in the political declaration and therefore underpins any future negotiations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Renton 17744 Posted October 17, 2019 Share Posted October 17, 2019 3 minutes ago, ewerk said: I believe it’s in the political declaration and therefore underpins any future negotiations.  Yeah, removed from the legally binding WA. No way can any Labour MP vote for this shit. The political declaration also spells the effective end of car manufacturing in the UK. I can't see this getting through. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gemmill 34413 Posted October 17, 2019 Share Posted October 17, 2019 If the EU blobstrops and say its either this deal or no deal, then all the more reason for it to go to a referendum. In which we tell them, no sorry, it's this deal or Remain. They would gladly forego the next phase of negotiations for us to just stay in instead.  I think this most likely ends up with a referendum attached. And if we still leave with this deal then everyone can fuck off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gemmill 34413 Posted October 17, 2019 Share Posted October 17, 2019 Cunts.   Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ewerk 26282 Posted October 17, 2019 Share Posted October 17, 2019 John Mann unsurprisingly voting for the deal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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