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1 minute ago, Rayvin said:

Holy shit, some actual good news.

 

The sleaze stuff does genuinely appear to be pissing off the gammons, I'm not sure which of their principles it's violating since it looks entirely routine to me in terms of how we got here, but long may it continue.

 

I actually think the constant war with the EU is probably also affecting this. You'd have to be pretty fucking stupid to back Johnson while he rips up a deal he agreed to while blaming the EU for it.

 

The Sleaze stuff isn't fully factored in yet, but will affect the true blue tories in shires much more than the gammons. As levelling up clearly becomes BS that will affect the red wall though. You can only lie for so long until people notice, where has Johnson got left to go? 

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Goes without saying but it would be a good moment for a charismatic and inspired Labour leader to really start twisting the knife... 

 

2 minutes ago, Renton said:

 

The Sleaze stuff isn't fully factored in yet, but will affect the true blue tories in shires much more than the gammons. As levelling up clearly becomes BS that will affect the red wall though. You can only lie for so long until people notice, where has Johnson got left to go? 

 

Nowhere clearly - his best hope is that other events come along and people forget.

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1 minute ago, Renton said:

A cautious reminder though, Labour need more than parity, they still have fuck all chance of government without a coalition. They should wake up and smell the roses regarding PR. 

 

56% if you combine Labour, LDs and Greens. More presumably if you add the SNP in there. Yes, needs a coalition though. Totally agree and will not budge on that.

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2 minutes ago, spongebob toonpants said:

BBC doing a fine job on Radio 5 thephone in on this morning. Nicky Campbell adding "balance" by equating it all th Berine Ecclestone and Tony Blair. Just the topical 25 years ago

 

In this case wasn't he very much devil's advocate because all his guests agreed we are witnessing tory corruption. I think he even said the topic was like trying to clap with one hand. 

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3 minutes ago, Rayvin said:

 

56% if you combine Labour, LDs and Greens. More presumably if you add the SNP in there. Yes, needs a coalition though. Totally agree and will not budge on that.

 

I dunno what will happen if the tories drew with Labour on proportion of the vote. We know the FPTP system benefits them so they would get a lot more seats, but presumably not a majority. And there is no party other than perhaps the ulster unionists that would for a coalition with them. I guess we'd have an unstable coalition of the left of sorts. 

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Just now, Renton said:

 

I dunno what will happen if the tories drew with Labour on proportion of the vote. We know the FPTP system benefits them so they would get a lot more seats, but presumably not a majority. And there is no party other than perhaps the ulster unionists that would for a coalition with them. I guess we'd have an unstable coalition of the left of sorts. 

 

More importantly, a coalition of the 'let's not fuck over our main trading partner'.

 

The Greens would work with Labour and improve them, the LDs I'm always a bit suspicious of but at least as far as the EU goes you could trust them. The SNP would give Labour anything they wanted as long as they were offered another independence vote. It just takes Labour to have a bit of vision to make this a reality.

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1 minute ago, Rayvin said:

 

More importantly, a coalition of the 'let's not fuck over our main trading partner'.

 

The Greens would work with Labour and improve them, the LDs I'm always a bit suspicious of but at least as far as the EU goes you could trust them. The SNP would give Labour anything they wanted as long as they were offered another independence vote. It just takes Labour to have a bit of vision to make this a reality.

 

I was talking following an election which represented today's voting indentions, without any cooperation between parties before the GE. It would be much better to hurt the tories by cooperating before a GE but sadly won't happen. Obviously a lot can change, but for the Tories I just can't see any of it being good. This winter and next year are going to hurt everyone financially. 

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1 minute ago, Renton said:

 

I was talking following an election which represented today's voting indentions, without any cooperation between parties before the GE. It would be much better to hurt the tories by cooperating before a GE but sadly won't happen. Obviously a lot can change, but for the Tories I just can't see any of it being good. This winter and next year are going to hurt everyone financially. 

 

Yes, gloating about this recent polling aside, it's taken an awful lot of shit to get us to this point and the year ahead looks incredibly grim. I can't believe so many people voted for this obvious shitstorm.

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16 minutes ago, Renton said:

 

I dunno what will happen if the tories drew with Labour on proportion of the vote. We know the FPTP system benefits them so they would get a lot more seats, but presumably not a majority. And there is no party other than perhaps the ulster unionists that would for a coalition with them. I guess we'd have an unstable coalition of the left of sorts. 

One percent lead for Labour equates to about a 20 seat lead for the tories but way short of majority. 

 

Coalition implies trusting the LDs which as Rayvin says isn't a given. 

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2 minutes ago, NJS said:

One percent lead for Labour equates to about a 20 seat lead for the tories but way short of majority. 

 

Coalition implies trusting the LDs which as Rayvin says isn't a given. 

 

If you're the senior member in the coalition you have effective control. Besides, what would the alternative be, allow for an LD/Con coalition? I just can't see the LDs getting into bed with the Tories again, especially this lot. 

 

Edit: Alos an LD coalition with Labour would almost certainly guarantee a referendum on PR, so might be a good thing. 

Edited by Renton
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1 hour ago, Renton said:

 

If you're the senior member in the coalition you have effective control. Besides, what would the alternative be, allow for an LD/Con coalition? I just can't see the LDs getting into bed with the Tories again, especially this lot. 

 

Edit: Alos an LD coalition with Labour would almost certainly guarantee a referendum on PR, so might be a good thing. 

A coalition with a Kennedy, Campbell and from early signs Davey led LD would be okay, its a Clegg or Swinson led LD I'd be wary of though I agree on PR. 

 

Of course including the SNP likely means another independence referendum as well. 

Edited by NJS
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1 minute ago, NJS said:

A coalition with a Kennedy, Campbell and from early signs Davey led LD would be okay, its a Clegg or Swinson led LD I'd be wary of though I agree on PR. 

 

Of course including the SNP likely means another independence referendum as well. 

 

The latter is now inevitable whatever happens imo. If Labour were actually in power as part of a coalition that might benefit retaining the union, as I suspect one of the Scots' main objections to the status quo is perpetual rule by Tories. Still, PR for rUK and an independent Scotland would be a fantastic result.

 

I can dream....  

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The thing about this whole Paterson situation is that if the Tories had've taken their medicine it would have been forgotten about by now. Instead it's a week later and Tory corruption is becoming a real theme in people's heads. Now the opposition parties are going to try to ban MPs performing consultancy work which means there are going to be a lot of Tory MPs severely out of pocket and severely pissed off at Johnson.

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6 minutes ago, Renton said:

I don't understand, will someone educate me? 

 

There are now multiple different kinds of rainbow flag in circulation to signify various gender and sexual orientations. I'm in no way familiar enough with them to know which one this represents, but presumably it's a fairly broad one for the trans community in general.

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