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Vladimir Putin and Russia


Anorthernsoul
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9 minutes ago, Renton said:

Not sure I see the point here. Just turn off the taps. 

 

Just theorising, but if Putin sees a coup coming and a removal of power, could he be looking to destabilase the possibility of Russian supply to the west being reinstated? i.e. aiming to further screw over western economies as a parting shot? 

Far to easy for his replacement to just turn the taps back on.

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Some guy on the radio said it may have been timed to coincide with the opening of the new Norway-Poland pipeline tomorrow, as a warning. I assume NATO must have some submrine presence in the Baltic? 

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On 27/09/2022 at 14:33, Renton said:

Not sure I see the point here. Just turn off the taps. 

 

Couldn't, that would have put Gazprom in breach of contract and would have resulted in millions in fines, if pipeline blows "oops not my fault"

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28 minutes ago, PaddockLad said:

Ukraine applies to join NATO on the same terms as recently joined Finland & Sweden…same day as Russia “formally” annexes four areas of Ukraine… will that end the war? 🤔


Don’t think Sweden and Finland have joined yet.

 

Hard to see them letting Ukraine join while Russia are occupying part of Ukraine. Wouldn’t NATO then have to come to Ukraines defence?

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10 hours ago, Christmas Tree said:


Don’t think Sweden and Finland have joined yet.

 

Hard to see them letting Ukraine join while Russia are occupying part of Ukraine. Wouldn’t NATO then have to come to Ukraines defence?

 

We would, so you're likely right. That said I am starting to wonder if that's where this is heading either way. Putin annexing regions into Russia is his opportunity to claim Ukraine is breaching Russian sovereignty in those places, and gives him his pretext for a nuclear response. If that happens then IMO NATO is in there no matter what.

 

 

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Yeah but as much as Putin is trying to paint himself as the saviour of the developing world there, it's not like he has widespread and fervent support for this even amongst such nations.

 

I disagree with the assertion of the guy making that twitter thread - that this was the obvious and apparent strategy from day one. It's been far too haphazard throughout from Russia for that to be true. While I don't doubt that the issue of Western hegemony is a longstanding grievance of Putin's, and a backdrop to a lot of his commentary, I struggle with the idea that this alone and above all else was the reason he kicked this off - it would have been far more centralised in the narrative up until now if it had been.

 

This is the pivot, the attempt to re-cast what is happening. The reality is that 20 years ago Russia would have been more than happy to join up to Western structures if it could have been done in a way wherein Putin could have maintained power throughout - he decided against this because his central aim is ensuring his own power, and now towards the end of his life, his own legacy.

 

I do think it quite likely he will order nuclear strikes because he really has gone all in on this now though. He won't survive this if Russia is repelled, he has to win. So yes Tom, I agree, we are in trouble now. How many lives about to be lost at the whim of a psychopath.  And he is a psychopath - that has been as clear as day for years. There was never any excuse.

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I'm also going to add that we (the UK) are very possibly a key target here. I have for some time been noticing the UK being cited by Russia throughout much of what goes on - and I don't know, maybe he's like that with France and Germany too but we only hear it about us because of the press, but genuinely I think we're right up there with the US on his shitlist. He cited Dresden in that speech - there are plenty of other examples he could have picked across many countries - he could have called out Germany for actually invading Russia - instead he has cast them as a victim of what I can only assume at this point is Anglo-Saxon hegemony.

 

I am convinced we will get hit if this escalates into a broader conflict.

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Having said all that, bring it the fuck on as far as I'm concerned. If it goes hot, it wouldn't be the moment for the West to shy back - it would be the moment we put the psychotic cunt down for good.

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I think several things will dictate any response to Putin using nuclear weaponry. 
 

First, where he targets- if he hits any NATO members, he’ll be getting a warm reply. 
If he targets one of the “hoping to be NATO” countries, the response will be the same. 
Added to that, where, within any country he targets, will play a large part in the response. 
If he targets a town or city, goodbye world it’s been a wild ride. 
If he targets a strategic military site, say for example Brizlee Hill in Northumberland, I think a like for like nuclear response, and also a bunker busting “Goodbye Vlad” missile to take him out will be sufficient- he must be taken out, but whoever steps in after him needs to see we aren’t fucking about but are still open to de-escalation. 
 

It’s a terrifying thought, particularly when we have a current leader who idolises another fucking psychopath, but if handled correctly, even a strike on NATO soil needn’t be the end of us all. 
 

I’m still holding on to the diminishing hope that his nuclear arsenal is in a similar state to the rest of his military, and he’s playing the biggest game of bluff ever, or if he launches,  it just goes boom at the launch site. 

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