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Championship Run In  

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Looking at the run ins, I think Brighton have the easiest; they're either facing teams who've nowt to play for (Norwich, QPR, Villa) or teams facing the drop (Birmingham, Bristol, Wigan, and Wolves). That said, they're facing Villa and Norwich who've been under performing and are better than their league positions and Brighton will also be facing teams fighting for their lives...

 

We're next with 1 relegation candidate (Burton), 2 Promotion candidates (Leeds, Shef Wed) and then finally play 4 teams who will likely be on the beach (Barnsley, Cardiff, Ipswich and Preston). Come through the next 3 games with 6+pts and I'd fancy us to win the final 4 games against the teams on their holidays.

 

Huddersfield have the toughest run in, I reckon. 3 sides who could well still be in the hunt for a promotion (Norwich*, Preston and Fulham) and 3 sides fighting against relegation (Forest, Wolves, Birmingham) only 2 holiday sides (Derby, Cardiff).

 

10 game form has us all on 1.9PpG, 6 game has us first (1.83PpG), Brighton second (1.5) and Huddersfield way back on (1.17) which is the same as Blackburn. If we revert to our Season's PpG for the final 7 we'll end on 95.68.

 

Leeds and Fulham are the form teams around the Play Off spots going into the final 7 games.

 

 

 

 

 

*Norwich are both a promotion battler and a holiday side because while they're still in the scrap now, by the time Brighton face them they won't be.

Edited by The Fish
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I think we'll win the league, we'll have a few games where everything clicks and that'll be enough imo. Brighton will come 2nd, there's a chance they might nick us since it's still so close but I think that's the top 2. 
I think Leeds will come up through the play-offs, Huddersfield are hitting a rough patch at a bad time and I just think the battling style of Leeds will fare better in the knockout bit. 

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I think we'll win the league, we'll have a few games where everything clicks and that'll be enough imo. Brighton will come 2nd, there's a chance they might nick us since it's still so close but I think that's the top 2. 

I think Leeds will come up through the play-offs, Huddersfield are hitting a rough patch at a bad time and I just think the battling style of Leeds will fare better in the knockout bit. 

Are you me or am I you?

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I think we'll win the league, we'll have a few games where everything clicks and that'll be enough imo. Brighton will come 2nd, there's a chance they might nick us since it's still so close but I think that's the top 2. 

I think Leeds will come up through the play-offs, Huddersfield are hitting a rough patch at a bad time and I just think the battling style of Leeds will fare better in the knockout bit. 

I was going back and forth between them hitting a rough patch and being well setup for playoffs.

 

Doesn't 3rd usually fail to get promoted too or is that just confirmation bias and they do actually go up the 25(-30?)% they're supposed to?

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In fact, 39.50% of the teams that have finished in the top play-off place across the three divisions have been promoted.

 

http://www.skysports.com/football/news/11095/10275474/football-league-play-offs-is-third-place-a-curse-or-is-that-a-myth

 

I suspect that's a lot tighter in the Championship, but probably still a fallacy.

Edited by adios
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I was going back and forth between them hitting a rough patch and being well setup for playoffs.

 

Doesn't 3rd usually fail to get promoted too or is that just confirmation bias and they do actually go up the 25(-30?)% they're supposed to?

 

3rd placed team has failed to go up 3 out of the last 5 seasons, (5 out of the last 10, 8 of the last 20).

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On the podcast, very early doors, you said that Newcastle were 100%(!) to get promoted.

 

Wasn't that about Sissoko never playing another game for us? I can't remember, most of the time on there I'm just saying shit that pops into my head :lol:

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I'm sure Fergus or the other chap will remember if that's what it was, as they were bemused at the time.  

 

As was I, and I don't think that statement about Sissoko would have done it.

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That's an impressively high percentage.

Aye, that Sky Sports page made it out like 3rd place isn't a curse because they're the most likely side to go up. But the question should really have been answered "Yes it's a curse because more often than not a different side wins the Play Offs."

 

Huddersfield fans won't give a shit which other team goes up in their place, the issue is that they missed out.

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I'm a fan of the playoffs because it's exciting (and generally doesn't affect us), but I suppose it's the league equivalent of winning a game and then having it decided on penalties.

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I'm sure Fergus or the other chap will remember if that's what it was, as they were bemused at the time.  

 

As was I, and I don't think that statement about Sissoko would have done it.

 

Think it was just Moussa.

 

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God damn it, that's not nearly as mock-worthy as what I thought. :(

 

I'll still make the most of it though.

To be honest, I probably did say that Newcastle were 100% going up automatically, I just can't remember/find it. :lol:

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Thinking of luzzing some cash on Fulham coming up through the play offs.

Huddersfield   5/2

Leeds           10/3

Fulham           4/1 

Reading          5/1

Shef Wed        6/1

Brighton         40/1

Derby           100/1

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Fulham are probably the best side we've played. They tonked Huddersfield and Reading at home in October / November, but have been maddeningly inconsistent at times this season. For example, they've drawn at home to Blackburn, lost at home to Wolves and scraped a 1-0 at Rotherham since beating us. Huddersfield might have the setup to do it if they can recover their form by the end of the season. 

 

I'm almost certain now the top two will be us and Brighton, I'm just not sure on the order.

Edited by rogerbarton
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