2017 GE 1

[TheGingerQuiff 2412]

I'm working 3pm-11pm so it's landed nicely for me to stay up and watch the results. I think the two terror attacks knocked the stuffing out of his campaign. He was surging when the headlines were all about winter fuel and dementia tax. 

 

Brexit will absolutely fuck them anyway. It'd almost be a shame for Labour to win and take it on the chin for them

[Christmas Tree 3997]

6 minutes ago, Dr Gloom said:

I'm feeling deeply depressed about tomorrow. The vague hope that we might see another Brexit or trump result against the odds are receding by the hour, and he giddy excitement of a possible hung parliament after last week's revival have gone. my prediction is a Tory majority of around 70 seats. 

 

To to make matters worse, I'm doing to night shift as the results come in. 

 

Polls were wrong in 2015, wrong on Brexit, wrong on Trump. They haven't got a clue what's going on. A hung parliament is the least I think he'll get. Can't wait for the exit poll.

[Dr Gloom 19770]

He's never winning a majority man, give over 

[Rayvin 4963]

Agree that the Tories will win a majority. The rest is academic really. 60 seats sounds about right but frankly, knowing the voting success of the things I care about, it could be horrific.

 

That said, hopefully the polls persuade people to go out and vote.

[trooper 940]

For everyone voting today 

 

[RobinRobin 9192]

9 hours ago, Renton said:

Five more years of shit ahoy. 

 

Surely that was always going to be the outcome, whoever won

[Happy Face 29]

6 hours ago, Christmas Tree said:

 

Polls were wrong in 2015, wrong on Brexit, wrong on Trump. They haven't got a clue what's going on. A hung parliament is the least I think he'll get. Can't wait for the exit poll.

 

Difference is, all the polls were close in those cases and the results swung to the right because

1. people are ashamed to admit they vote out of self interest

2. people are ashamed to admit they vote out of hatred of 'the other'.

3. Left leaning young people respond to polls but don't go to cast a vote.

 

There's no precedent at all for what you predict.

[Renton 17702]

The polls weren't even wrong for these elections. All the results we're within the margin of error. Trouble is the margin always errs to the right, for the reasons HF suggests. 

[ewerk 26210]

In 2015 I believe most posts were well outside the margin of error. 

[Meenzer 14029]

Fair point from The Times that this was supposed to be the Brexit election. Could they not have pointed that out sooner though?

 

 

[ewerk 26210]

@Christmas Tree  Will you be taking a quick snap of your ballot to show us that you're a man of your word?

Edited June 8, 2017 by ewerk

[Monkeys Fist 38654]

Just now, ewerk said:

@Christmas Tree  Will you be taking a quick snap of your ballot to show us that you're a man of your word?

beside a duck pizza for proof. 

[Rayvin 4963]

11 minutes ago, Meenzer said:

Fair point from The Times that this was supposed to be the Brexit election. Could they not have pointed that out sooner though?

 

 

 

The Times is owned by Murdoch, why would they want to do anything to harm a Tory victory?

 

I wonder how drunk is drunk enough to be able to handle the results...

[Dr Gloom 19770]

To verify, I'd need a snap of his 32" jeans 

[Dr Gloom 19770]

3 minutes ago, Rayvin said:

 

The Times is owned by Murdoch, why would they want to do anything to harm a Tory victory?

 

I wonder how drunk is drunk enough to be able to handle the results...

 

Because they're a reputable broadsheet with a broad mix of views on their oped pages. Same goes for the wsj. The times is a Tory paper but don't operate the way you reckon all mainstream media outlets do.

[Rayvin 4963]

1 minute ago, Dr Gloom said:

 

Because they're a reputable broadsheet with a broad mix of views on their oped pages. Same goes for the wsj. The times is a Tory paper but don't operate the way you reckon all mainstream media outlets do.

 

[PaddockLad 14559]

33 minutes ago, ewerk said:

In 2015 I believe most posts were well outside the margin of error. 

 

Thats what I was thinking. It was widely predicted to be a hung parliament then Dimbleby nailed it with the BBC exit poll saying a clear majority for the Tories. Sadly can't se them being that far out this time,  think the Tories will even pick up a couple of seats in Scotland, maybe the Middlesbrough seat someone mentioned earlier in the week too. 

 

 

[Dr Gloom 19770]

1 minute ago, Rayvin said:

 

 

Well, you're obviously not going to get Tim Montgomery writing a column like that 

[ewerk 26210]

2 minutes ago, PaddockLad said:

 

Thats what I was thinking. It was widely predicted to be a hung parliament then Dimbleby nailed it with the BBC exit poll saying a clear majority for the Tories. Sadly can't se them being that far out this time,  think the Tories will even pick up a couple of seats in Scotland, maybe the Middlesbrough seat someone mentioned earlier in the week too. 

 

 

 

You would certainly have expected them to adjust their methodologies in light of what happened in 2015.

[Rayvin 4963]

2 minutes ago, Dr Gloom said:

 

Well, you're obviously not going to get Tim Montgomery writing a column like that 

 

I actually deeply wish I had your faith in the media. It would make my life so much less enraging.

[ewerk 26210]

'Enraging'

[Dr Gloom 19770]

8 minutes ago, Rayvin said:

 

I actually deeply wish I had your faith in the media. It would make my life so much less enraging.

 

It's an opinion page. Not all columnists have the same opinions or are drilled to say the same thing by their newspaper proprietor. 

 

Sure I've explained this to you before but this is case for all broad sheets, whatever their editorial line, and their news reporting will also be balanced and impartial.

 

These rules also apply to the likes of the mail and the sun - though even the sun had Frankie Boyle as a columnist for a while. I wouldn't say he is influenced by Rupert Murdoch.

 

 

Edited June 8, 2017 by Dr Gloom

[Meenzer 14029]

[Toonpack 6796]

23 minutes ago, PaddockLad said:

 

Thats what I was thinking. It was widely predicted to be a hung parliament then Dimbleby nailed it with the BBC exit poll saying a clear majority for the Tories. Sadly can't se them being that far out this time,  think the Tories will even pick up a couple of seats in Scotland, maybe the Middlesbrough seat someone mentioned earlier in the week too. 

 

 

 

They've gone big for the unionist vote and have been aided and abetted by Scottish Labour, they've campaigned solely on indyref#2 and appealed to the sash, the cunts. It's been all about stop the SNP who agree with more of Corbyn's policies than Scottish labour do (last stronghold of the Blairites - well until tomorrow probably).

[Howmanheyman 26723]

On 2017-6-6 at 0:31 AM, PaddockLad said:

Wonder if Diane Abbot, if she somehow, in some bizzare parallel universe obviously, became Home  Secretary on Friday morning, would she do anything as monumentally fuckin stupid as send known radicalised Uk Moslems off to fight with jihadis in North Africa? ..and then cut police numbers and funding so that they and others (some of whom were publicaly self confessed jihadis and went on tv to advertise it) couldn't possibly be properly monitored and then went on to murder innocent members of the public?  I'll grant you that's what the media perception of Abbott would have us beleive she'd be capable of, but with all this now in the public realm (obviously not being reported properly by the compliant media) having a go at her and Corbyn for their beliefs just smacks of being petty and snide, and completely misses the point about how unbeleiveably and possibly criminally incompetent May has been as  both Home Secretary and PM. 

 

The choices on Thursday are admittedly abysmally poor and are being brought into stark detail during this horrific wave of attacks the country is experiencing.but there's nothing to suggest that given the chance Jezza and Di won't finally grow up, leave the 6th form common room and make a decent go of it. Corbyn's demeanour and stature have grown hugely and visibly in the the last month. He's beginning to grasp right from wrong. Knocking him for old pronouncements is the stuff of the daily mail. After the learning curve of the last four weeks where he's stood tall and got almost everything spot on on every issue that even most of the preveiously hostile media have had to say "well, he's got a point there", all the while that spineless bitch has basically hidden away behind sound bites and underlings who are every bit as poor as anything on the Labour front bench.  

 

May called this election basically as another Brexit referendum. Even before Manchester and the events at the weekend that was out the window due to the Tory manifesto, seemingly jotted down on to the back of 20 Regal. If she's returned the EU council will publicaly slap her so hard in the face during negotiations she'll have to go running into the arms of the Donald, who will want the NHS on a plate for his US private healthcare chums  in return for other favourable trade deals, which he'll likely go back on as he, like the EU, hold all the aces. Id rather take my chances with Red Jezz and Mad Di and have a softer business friendly Brexit negotiated by ex attorney general Kier Starmer QC than see the most incompetent senior politician in my lifetime drive us off the end of a cliff. 

 

I still iexpect the Tories to win like, just had to get all that off my chest  

Good post, Rob.