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Relegation Again ?

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2 minutes ago, Ayatollah Hermione said:

:lol: Sending out formatted emails to mates with points and league tally. There must be more to life than this

:lol: It's that Bjork song:

I could write an eeeemail,

And format it in bo-old,

With some pretty colours,

There's more to life than this

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You lot are coming dangerously close to J69 territory here. 

Edited by The Fish

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8 minutes ago, The Fish said:

You lot are coming dangerously close to J69 territory here. 

 

If you were to show how close in some sort of tabled format how would that look?

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1 minute ago, Andrew said:

 

If you were to show how close in some sort of tabled format how would that look?

Venn diagram. Obvs

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Getting away from the fact I put some effort into the presentation of my thoughts, what’s your take on the substance of the post?

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2 minutes ago, The Fish said:

Getting away from the fact I put some effort into the presentation of my thoughts, what’s your take on the substance of the post?

After the Man Utd game I thought we could and should get at least 1 point per game which I think would be enough (i.e. 39 points). I'm not as optimistic as you with the haul, especially as we've struggled to break sides down at home who've come here looking for a point. Really hoping Slimani could make a crucial difference there though.

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It’s still way to tight to be overly confident. I think we’ll finish on less than 40 points but that we’ll still get enough to finish around 16-17th.

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1 minute ago, Alex said:

After the Man Utd game I thought we could and should get at least 1 point per game which I think would be enough (i.e. 39 points). I'm not as optimistic as you with the haul, especially as we've struggled to break sides down at home who've come here looking for a point. Really hoping Slimani could make a crucial difference there though.

Aye I’m basically banking on the 3 new players being the difference in tight games; Either Slimani and Kenedy providing goals or Dubravka preventing them. 

I’m not expecting Dubravka to play like he did on his debut in every game, but he shouldn’t need to. I’m expecting Kenedy to continue to impress and look dangerous. And yes, I’m expecting Slimani to hit the ground running, although that’s probably the least likely. 

To to be honest, it’s likely that it won’t need 40pts to survive, but I think it’s an achievable target. 

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I don't think we'll go down, just Kenedys displays so far have been enough to boost my confidence in that, never mind Dubravkas brilliant debut.

 

Its amazing really what an unexpected win will do for the picture, we went from struggling to win and dropping points all the time to having only lost to City recently and, hey, we're not conceding many goals, picking up points.

 

Kenedy now has two assists in three starts and has given our dead ball delivery another dimension, he really fires in corners rather than floating them which I like and which works to our advantage as we've got someone like Lascelles who really attacks them.

 

I don't expect Dubravka to keep that ridiculous performance level (be nice though) but a good/poor debut can make or break a goalkeeper and after that he, his defence and the fans will all be brimming with confidence in his ability which will be telling in the coming weeks.

 

Slimani is better than any other forward we have, simple as that, if he can get fit and play most/all of the remaining games of the season for us I reckon he'll finish the season our top scorer.

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17 minutes ago, strawb said:

I think we might finish 10th. The only thing I’m surprised about is how well Swansea have done with their new manager

I'd take 10th place like ;)

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Just now, Andrew said:

 

That's a hell of a jump between Huddersfield and Southampton despite Hudds being higher in the table.

That seemed a bit odd to me too. Happy with our odds anyway

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What's worth remembering is that we've only lost 2 out of the last 9 league games and both of those were to Man City. I genuinely think it hinges on Dummett and Lascelles staying fit for the run-in. If that's the case, we're going to be solid enough at the back to grind out/hold on to results and keep the goal difference canny. I'm going to remain quiet about Slimani's chances considering Sturridge going down injured should show how easy it is for things to go west in a second. If the defence stays true (and we can ride our luck a bit), then anything Slimani can bring could well be the difference between joint 16th on goal difference to 13/14th with a couple of games to spare.

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Here's some goalkeeping stats from Sky Sports that show how relevant Dubravka may be to our survival (and how absolutely mediocre Elliott and Darlow have been):

Loris Karius' save percentage is higher than Simon Mignolet in the Premier League this season

David de Gea (vertical scale) ranks top for shot-stopping, while Ederson ranks top for distribution (horizontal scale)

David de Gea has prevented almost 16 goals this season in all competitions, according to Jackson's data

 

This statistical analysis reckons Darlow's weak keeping has cost us an additional ~4 goals this season. 4 goals prevented, in key games where it mattered most, and we'd probably be 6 points clear of relegation. 

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10 hours ago, acrossthepond said:

Here's some goalkeeping stats from Sky Sports that show how relevant Dubravka may be to our survival (and how absolutely mediocre Elliott and Darlow have been):

Loris Karius' save percentage is higher than Simon Mignolet in the Premier League this season

David de Gea (vertical scale) ranks top for shot-stopping, while Ederson ranks top for distribution (horizontal scale)

David de Gea has prevented almost 16 goals this season in all competitions, according to Jackson's data

 

This statistical analysis reckons Darlow's weak keeping has cost us an additional ~4 goals this season. 4 goals prevented, in key games where it mattered most, and we'd probably be 6 points clear of relegation. 

Surprised at just how poorly Darlow and Elliot fare in those charts. 'Keeper wasn't a position any of us really identified as a weakness, but it looks fairly clear it should have been. I mean, Benitez spotted it, but he's a top class manager and it's his job.

Have our standards dropped so low that we're overrating two poor 'keepers? Or is the above analysis doing them a disservice?

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1 hour ago, The Fish said:

Surprised at just how poorly Darlow and Elliot fare in those charts. 'Keeper wasn't a position any of us really identified as a weakness, but it looks fairly clear it should have been. I mean, Benitez spotted it, but he's a top class manager and it's his job.

Have our standards dropped so low that we're overrating two poor 'keepers? Or is the above analysis doing them a disservice?

 

The fact that Elliot has ever been considered good enough to be our number 1 answers that question imo

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