Coronavirus

[Howay 12452]

22 minutes ago, Gemmill said:

 

 

"Chico's great but..."

 

 

 Move aside Chico. Also clicked on their twitter and one of the first tweets:

”Too sexy for my mask”  

[Gemmill 34361]

One thing from Whitty and Vallance last week that made no sense to me. They said that, if unchecked, we would be at 50k new cases a day by mid-October and that that would mean deaths per day a month later in mid-November of 200.

 

How is that deaths per day figure in November so low if we're registering 50k new cases a day? Back in the spring we were recording 1k deaths per day from a cases figure that was *nowhere near* 50k a day. 

 

So what is the explanation? As far as I can see it can only be one of two things

 

- either way *way* more people were getting infected back in the spring than we knew (and if you get 200 deaths from 50k cases then to run at 1k cases per day you must be getting 250k cases per day (?) 

 

- or they are suggesting that the virus is significantly less lethal now than it was then. 

 

Basically they're saying that if we allow this thing to go unchecked, we'll end up with fewer people dying than we did when we brought in a lockdown. That doesn't make sense. 

 

Unless someone else can explain those figures differently. Cos on the face of it they bear no relation to what we saw in the spring. 

 

The video of this is below btw, just to prove I'm not some wacky conspiracist.

 

 

[TheGingerQuiff 2412]

They might not be planning on deliberately wiping out care homes this time. That'll bring the rate down

[Toonpack 6830]

Read an article by a doctor few days ago (can't find it again now !!) who said when it all kicked off, they hadn't a clue what they were dealing with and they were swamped but have learned what treatments help alleviate the condition before it gets critical and that perhaps helps explain a reduction in deaths/ICU levels (so far) and the fact they're not seeding care homes with it !!

 

[ewerk 26252]

I think the estimated real rate of infection back in March was around 100k per day but because we weren't testing then the published figures were much lower. Also doctors have better ways to treat the virus now so that's part of the reason for lower mortality rates.

[Gemmill 34361]

So twice as many people a day were getting it, but 5 times as many people were dying from it. So medical intervention has reduced the mortality rate by c.60%. 

 

Assuming you haven't just pulled that 100k figure out your hoop btw. 

[Toonpack 6830]

36 minutes ago, Gemmill said:

So twice as many people a day were getting it, but 5 times as many people were dying from it. So medical intervention has reduced the mortality rate by c.60%. 

 

Assuming you haven't just pulled that 100k figure out your hoop btw. 

https://www.newscientist.com/article/2252699-covid-19-is-becoming-less-deadly-in-europe-but-we-dont-know-why/

And this US centric column

https://www.webmd.com/lung/news/20200901/what-changing-death-rates-tell-us-about-covid

 

Edited September 28, 2020 by Toonpack

[Gemmill 34361]

So it does appear to be getting less deadly then. I understand why they can't come out and say that but they clearly think it just based on those figures I posted earlier. 

[Toonpack 6830]

9 minutes ago, Gemmill said:

So it does appear to be getting less deadly then. I understand why they can't come out and say that but they clearly think it just based on those figures I posted earlier. 

It would appear so, but that could be down to the demographic of the infected being younger, it can still climb the age ladder and there is now evidence of "long covid" in some young'uns but still not a lot of quantifiable evidence to truly know.

Former colleague of mine was telling me, the Dr thinks that his lad had it in March, mid teens cross country runner, and he's still affected and still not right.

[Meenzer 14030]

The long covid stuff is pretty worrying, aye. I reckon we'd still be putting some of these restrictions in place if a virus emerged that only had the long covid characteristics, i.e. a long-term chronic impact on a large number of people across all age groups, not just the elderly/vulnerable. Not to the same extent, of course, but still. Worth bearing in mind alongside the death figures.

[Renton 17729]

25 minutes ago, Gemmill said:

So it does appear to be getting less deadly then. I understand why they can't come out and say that but they clearly think it just based on those figures I posted earlier. 

 

It's not getting less deadly from a biological perspective. The demographic getting it now are currently younger and treatment is better. The case rate from March is irrelevant because the only people tested back then were seriously ill being admitted to hospital. A lot of the most vulnerable people have already died also. The infection rate, and therfore death rate probably won't ever get as high before because people now socially distance and we have access to PPE. 

Edited September 28, 2020 by Renton

[Gemmill 34361]

I've got no intention of changing my behaviour for definite. I want fuck all to do with any long covid complications and fuck all to do with other people in general. 

 

This is the life for the INTJ population. Me and the Unabomber (fellow INTJ) are living our best lives. 

[Renton 17729]

The recent data for Newcastle is horrific. 247 cases oer 100,000.  A lot of people are going to die soon. 

Edited September 28, 2020 by Renton

[Gemmill 34361]

All this stuff about schools and then a tree falls on a year 2 kid at one of the Gosforth schools on Friday. Killed them sadly. Fucking brutal. 

[Gemmill 34361]

19 minutes ago, Renton said:

The recent data for Newcastle is horrific. 247 cases oer 100,000.  A lot of people are going to die soon. 

 

Depends doesn't it. If 50k cases a day translates to 200 deaths per day, maybe not so much. And yes all deaths are tragic etc. 

[Toonpack 6830]

Thing that gets me is the "it's only the old and ill" from people in their late 40's early 50's, Aye mate and until there is a cure/vaccine each day you're getting closer to the danger zone as well ! Not to mention how many people who don't even know that they have an underlying condition.

It's here for the foreseeable I reckon and sooner that's accepted and planned for/adapted to the better IMO, all this "we must get back to the old normal" is mental, if we do great ! but don't count on it.

No way am I changing what I do in terms of distancing/interaction etc. 

[Carl 175]

So the uni students that are locked in are just an experiment in heard immunity and of course the ones that survive can go home at Christmas 

[Toonpack 6830]

14 minutes ago, Carl said:

So the uni students that are locked in are just an experiment in heard immunity and of course the ones that survive can go home at Christmas 

They're a test case for landlords getting their cash, nothing more

[Alex 30355]

34 minutes ago, Toonpack said:

They're a test case for landlords getting their cash, nothing more

And the institutions themselves who cottoned on a good few years back they could make as much, if not more, from accommodation than fees

Edited September 28, 2020 by Alex

[PaddockLad 14574]

17 minutes ago, Alex said:

And the institutions themselves who cottoned in a good few years back they could make as much, if not more, from accommodation than fees

 

I said as much to my other half who's best friend is in charge of admissions at Bournemouth Uni....towns and cities all over the country have handed over huge swathes of their central business districts to multi million pound student accomodation investments and the kids banged up in them this month will sharp learn about the effects of that as they will literally have to fight the investors mate's in government to get out for Christmas....

[Alex 30355]

2 minutes ago, PaddockLad said:

 

I said as much to my other half who's best friend is in charge of admissions at Bournemouth Uni....towns and cities all over the country have handed over huge swathes of their central business districts to multi million pound student accomodation investments and the kids banged up in them this month will sharp learn about the effects of that as they will literally have to fight the investors mate's in government to get out for Christmas....

That huge one above the new Tesco in Gateshead where the Get Carter carpark was is a typical example. I think it’s one of the larger developments of its type in recent years, certainly outside the capital. It was marketed as student and key worker accommodation but the only ‘key workers’ will be student nurses. 

[Renton 17729]

Its mental how much student accommodation Newcastle has. 

[Renton 17729]

As far as I can make out on the dashboard the student area of Newcastle, Shieldfield and Jesmond, have the highest rates in the country. And this is before.most students from the proper University have come back. Surely they have to cancel physical presence this term and get the kids to stay at home? This is a disaster in the making. 

[Renton 17729]

And just to relay more cheery news, apparently 500,000 people have long covid syndrome. This affects people of all ages equally, so students shouldn't think they are immune. 

[Gemmill 34361]

13 minutes ago, Renton said:

As far as I can make out on the dashboard the student area of Newcastle, Shieldfield and Jesmond, have the highest rates in the country. And this is before.most students from the proper University have come back. Surely they have to cancel physical presence this term and get the kids to stay at home? This is a disaster in the making. 

 

Cancel physical presence for students but keep schools open for your kids, I'm guessing?