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The Entirely Reasonable Potential Transfers Thread


Ayatollah Hermione
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35 minutes ago, Phoenix711 said:

 

I think it actually matters a lot though because of FFP. Look at Everton, they have spent over £500m, around £280m net over five years and because of no CL, they have zero funds to buy players even if the owner is willing to be a sugar daddy. They might need to sell Richarlison to have funds this summer. They haven't spent that well but we could be in the same position and now they might be fighting relegation albeit they have DCL back which maybe enough to keep them safe.

 

Even with amortization, the £105m lost over 3 years (£90m of that is the Saudis pumping 30m in a season) includes other losses such as wages, agent fees, bonuses etc and it rises fast. The main reason for haggling is:

1. Keep summer deals down when better value is to be had

2. The aim this window is to stay up so keep spending down where players are overpriced

 

I know getting relegated means a loss of £100m+ but if we spent £100m and get relegated that's a huge loss that our owners could take but would set us back a lot. There needs to be transfers but it needs to be balanced against the real threat of relegation and its tough. From a fan's point of view, I hold different views and think, fk it, its not my money :P

My point wasn’t throw 80m at a player though, my point was just that if the club want a player, he will play in our team for a bit and do decent, then the money we paid for him isn’t going to be an issue if it’s 40m and he’s “worth” 25m. 
 

FFP isn’t going to break us when we are talking about the deal for Carlos tbh. I’d agree if we were planning to go mental and throw 80m at him to hit his release clause, but we’re not. I can’t really speak to Evertons issues but I know they are ran like a fucking joke, they’ve spent nearly half a billion quid on shit players - I am just saying if we overpay for a few that do a job for us currently it’s not going to be any issue. We have a good amount in the reserve, and a huge sponsorship deficit to make up just to get our sponsorships level with other PL clubs. When I said the Carlos fee doesn’t matter I’m meaning the perceived overpayment of 15m or whatever it might be, not throw 150m and 200k a week at the bloke. From what I understand wages is where we are keeping a clear structure (hence losing out on Digne as he demanded 150k a week). 
 

I think FFP can at times be a bit of an overblown specter too. Man city slapped it aside in court, and Everton ended up spending £22m on a left back and registering him fine weeks before they sold Digne. The issues Barca are having are La Liga FFP rules and Barca are ran like a total shit show too. 

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9 hours ago, Gemmill said:

Aye, re what the Fish says, this is about incremental improvement. Especially given where we are at present - incremental is as good as we can hope for. We're not gonna be picking up world beaters in 19th position. 


Kieran Maguire reckons we have £200mil to spend before we fall foul of FFP. My worry is we spunk the whole lot up the wall this January putting 4th and 5th choice signings on mental wages and leave us with a nightmare rebuild in the Summer....

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1 hour ago, Phoenix711 said:

 

I think it actually matters a lot though because of FFP. Look at Everton, they have spent over £500m, around £280m net over five years and because of no CL, they have zero funds to buy players even if the owner is willing to be a sugar daddy. They might need to sell Richarlison to have funds this summer. They haven't spent that well but we could be in the same position and now they might be fighting relegation albeit they have DCL back which maybe enough to keep them safe.

 

Even with amortization, the £105m lost over 3 years (£90m of that is the Saudis pumping 30m in a season) includes other losses such as wages, agent fees, bonuses etc and it rises fast. The main reason for haggling is:

1. Keep summer deals down when better value is to be had

2. The aim this window is to stay up so keep spending down where players are overpriced

 

I know getting relegated means a loss of £100m+ but if we spent £100m and get relegated that's a huge loss that our owners could take but would set us back a lot. There needs to be transfers but it needs to be balanced against the real threat of relegation and its tough. From a fan's point of view, I hold different views and think, fk it, its not my money :P


Hadn't seen this sorry, but I agree. The crackpots on Twitter saying "just add an extra £10mil on the Botman fee" aren't looking past the end of January. The club probably have a plan in place for the Summer and need to keep an eye on the bank balance, especially if we end up relegated which is a realistic possibility! 

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22 minutes ago, Kid Dynamite said:


Kieran Maguire reckons we have £200mil to spend before we fall foul of FFP. My worry is we spunk the whole lot up the wall this January putting 4th and 5th choice signings on mental wages and leave us with a nightmare rebuild in the Summer....

We can't be getting taken over, becoming the richest club in the world, and then spending all our time worrying that we're spending too much money. 

 

If Carlos is really about to go through, we're about to blast through £60m in the January window. Just enjoy it. 

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10 minutes ago, Kid Dynamite said:


Kieran Maguire reckons we have £200mil to spend before we fall foul of FFP. My worry is we spunk the whole lot up the wall this January putting 4th and 5th choice signings on mental wages and leave us with a nightmare rebuild in the Summer....

 

I've seen that number bandied around a bit. I'm not sure how accurate it can be when FFP is calculated over three years and transfer cost is amortised in along with contract fees and everything else over the duration of player contracts. So, without knowing the duration of the contracts we're offering to the players in spending this 200mil, how can Maguire be in any position to make such an estimate? Seems like there's a lot of guesswork involved. Maybe 200mil is a ballpark figure and not meant to be some sort of accurate accounting of our financial position and the finer details of the finances involved with any incoming players. This is probably more like the shoddy work of a CPA rather than the chadstein CA variant.

 

Anyway, it is obviously the case that this estimate must be based around estimating what we can spend and still avoid running afoul of the FFP rules for this window (i.e. the past three years back from 31/01/22), because any estimate extrapolating forward is just outright guesswork given the changes ahead in terms of revenue for the club. So that raises the question: is there any leniency period built into the FFP regulations? For example, if you run afoul of the rules for a 3-year financial period (e.g., 2019-2022), can it be corrected in the next 3-year period (e.g., 2020-2023) to avoid penalty?

 

Nerds of the forum! Unite in answering my simple question!

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£200m is a conservative estimate with all other things being equal. Once you add in the new deals we’re operating above that level.

 

The relatively short term deals for Trippier and Wood are evidence of FFP and trying to offset the costs over a shorter period than normal giving us more headroom to operate in a couple of years time.

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53 minutes ago, toonotl said:

 

I've seen that number bandied around a bit. I'm not sure how accurate it can be when FFP is calculated over three years and transfer cost is amortised in along with contract fees and everything else over the duration of player contracts. So, without knowing the duration of the contracts we're offering to the players in spending this 200mil, how can Maguire be in any position to make such an estimate? Seems like there's a lot of guesswork involved. Maybe 200mil is a ballpark figure and not meant to be some sort of accurate accounting of our financial position and the finer details of the finances involved with any incoming players. This is probably more like the shoddy work of a CPA rather than the chadstein CA variant.

 

Anyway, it is obviously the case that this estimate must be based around estimating what we can spend and still avoid running afoul of the FFP rules for this window (i.e. the past three years back from 31/01/22), because any estimate extrapolating forward is just outright guesswork given the changes ahead in terms of revenue for the club. So that raises the question: is there any leniency period built into the FFP regulations? For example, if you run afoul of the rules for a 3-year financial period (e.g., 2019-2022), can it be corrected in the next 3-year period (e.g., 2020-2023) to avoid penalty?

 

Nerds of the forum! Unite in answering my simple question!

I gave this a like despite your unnecessary attack on CPA’s 😒.

 

 

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I can’t fathom why anyone would worry about spending too much money after 15 years or whatever of Ashley. It’s not our money being spent and Im fairly sure they’ll be aware of FFP.

 

Spunk it! Spunk it all I say!

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There is no doubt that Carlos is going to be miles better than what we currently have but I’d be concerned about how good his english is, especially if we are hoping for him to organise what we already have.

And all this concern about FFP, once the Armco and Saudi Royal Air deals happen and the sponsors for everything from pasta to official tissue suppliers goes through the club will be rolling in it.

The biggest priority is fixing our midfield.

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6 hours ago, sammynb said:

There is no doubt that Carlos is going to be miles better than what we currently have but I’d be concerned about how good his english is, especially if we are hoping for him to organise what we already have.

And all this concern about FFP, once the Armco and Saudi Royal Air deals happen and the sponsors for everything from pasta to official tissue suppliers goes through the club will be rolling in it.

The biggest priority is fixing our midfield.

You're worried about his English?

It's gotta be better than lascelles just clapping like he's doing a Sea Lion impression

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10 minutes ago, Dr Gloom said:

 

rising from the ashes of the money owed to the the sir bobby robson foundation 

 

Seems to have matured from just formations but the player rating seemed a bit of a giveaway.

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12 hours ago, Kid Dynamite said:


Kieran Maguire reckons we have £200mil to spend before we fall foul of FFP. My worry is we spunk the whole lot up the wall this January putting 4th and 5th choice signings on mental wages and leave us with a nightmare rebuild in the Summer....

There's a great deal of time and a huge gap between our current commercial revenue stream and where we could be. 

 

If we can get commercial deals in place that lift our income for fuck all to West Ham, or Everton levels (which is fair market value imo). Our FFP envelope stretches once more. There's also the prospect of dumping a load of dead wood off our wage budget by selling the likes of Lascelles, Clark, Shelvey, Krafth, Longstaff(s), Gayle, etc. 

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