Transfers, 2023-24 season

[Gemmill 34167]

16 minutes ago, Craig said:

I think 5-6 is probably on the high side. I'm thinking 4-5 at most. I expect some will be retained who a lot might expect them to be released too. This is definitely a gradual project.

 

DIRECT ATTACK ON WYKIKI AGAIN. 

 

Do you get an alert when he posts?! 

[Meenzer 13967]

18 minutes ago, Craig said:

I think 5-6 is probably on the high side. I'm thinking 4-5 at most. I expect some will be retained who a lot might expect them to be released too. This is definitely a gradual project.

 

"5 is a bit excessive, I think it might be 5"  

 

 

 

(safety )

[Craig 6287]

1 minute ago, Gemmill said:

 

DIRECT ATTACK ON WYKIKI AGAIN. 

 

Do you get an alert when he posts?! 

 

Fuck me, here comes Terry McCann

[Howay 12447]

I feel the often mentioning of it leans to it being trying to deflate expectations in the market a bit. I think they talked a big game when they first arrived and the market responded by charging a huge premium, so this is likely an attempt to calm that down.

 

They want to spread payments, we saw that coming up time and again in January so I think this is a move so they can point to these quotes in negotiations and blame FFP for why they have to pay x up front with the rest coming through longer term clauses. 
 

The reality is we need a big overhaul, we can all go on like Howe can get performances out of Sean Longstaff but is that fair to Howe? He’s done an incredible job with the squad he has I really don’t see how it’s a fair and reasonable thing to turn around to him and say he has to keep starting Ryan Fraser up top for another season, especially when I’m really skeptical of FFP limits in general (see Everton who were supposedly crippled by FFP having absolutely no issue spending 30m on Alli plus bringing on the wages of that random Dutch bloke).

 

[Rayvin 4949]

I mean tbh I feel like they've been lowering expectations from the start anyway - yes there was talk of winning things but it was very much pitched as a 10 year project as far as winning the league goes. I actually don't think it would take that long if we spent well (assuming City and Liverpool current generations slide into decline together) but they've not said at any point that they were going to throw money around as far as I can recall?

[Howay 12447]

1 minute ago, Rayvin said:

I mean tbh I feel like they've been lowering expectations from the start anyway - yes there was talk of winning things but it was very much pitched as a 10 year project as far as winning the league goes. I actually don't think it would take that long if we spent well (assuming City and Liverpool current generations slide into decline together) but they've not said at any point that they were going to throw money around as far as I can recall?

You don’t need to explicitly say it though, if this type of takeover happened anywhere else and the new owners come in saying they aim to be competing right at the top and want to play for titles and CL football. I don’t think that’s lowering expectations regardless of a timeline given, all anyone hears is a Man City/PSG takeover has happened and their aims are exactly where everyone expects which equals there’s tons of money available. 

[Tom 13808]

 

 

 

 

 

[Ayatollah Hermione 12736]

Would accept that on a loan deal. Give Dubravka some decent competition in theory but I’m yet to be convinced by Henderson, like

[Dr Gloom 19736]

i know he's highly-rated but does anyone know what his distribution is like - is it a big improvement on dubravka's?

[The Fish 8949]

17 hours ago, Howay said:

 

 

 Goals, Assists, Goals less Penalties, xG and xA per 90 minutes

Tackles, Tackles won, Tackles attempted in Def, Mid and Attacking 3rds, Blocks, Interceptions and Clearances per 90

Pressures attempted, Successful Pressures, and where the pressures were attempted per 90

 

Total yards ball carried and yds progressed per 90

 

 

Dribbles attempted and succeeded, number of players dribbled past(#Pl) and number of nutmegs per 90

 

All data from FBRef

 

[The Fish 8949]

7 minutes ago, Dr Gloom said:

i know he's highly-rated but does anyone know what his distribution is like - is it a big improvement on dubravka's?

[Dr Gloom 19736]

1 minute ago, The Fish said:

 

[Dr Gloom 19736]

10 minutes ago, The Fish said:

 

 Goals, Assists, Goals less Penalties, xG and xA per 90 minutes

Tackles, Tackles won, Tackles attempted in Def, Mid and Attacking 3rds, Blocks, Interceptions and Clearances per 90

Pressures attempted, Successful Pressures, and where the pressures were attempted per 90

 

Total yards ball carried and yds progressed per 90

 

 

Dribbles attempted and succeeded, number of players dribbled past(#Pl) and number of nutmegs per 90

 

All data from FBRef

 

 

so pretty much better than ASM by every metric other than dribbles

[The Fish 8949]

1 minute ago, Dr Gloom said:

 

Howay Gloomy man, it's all pretty straight forward. Per 90 how many passes are completed, attempted, %, distance of passes. Then broken down into short medium and long range passing. 

 

The final box is pretty pointless, but it's; assists, xA, xA less actual assists, Key Passes, passes into final 3rd, passes into penalty area, crosses and progressive passes (disregards passes from defensive 3rd)

[The Fish 8949]

4 minutes ago, Dr Gloom said:

 

so pretty much better than ASM by every metric other than dribbles

Yep. However his expected assist return (0.17) isn't massively better than ASM's (0.2). Now, that could be because of the way Lyon play, the way ASM was played under Bruce (freedom of the pitch), the caliber of striker ASM has had to endure this season, etc.

 

 

[Dr Gloom 19736]

4 minutes ago, The Fish said:

Howay Gloomy man, it's all pretty straight forward. Per 90 how many passes are completed, attempted, %, distance of passes. Then broken down into short medium and long range passing. 

 

The final box is pretty pointless, but it's; assists, xA, xA less actual assists, Key Passes, passes into final 3rd, passes into penalty area, crosses and progressive passes (disregards passes from defensive 3rd)

 

right, ok. so does henderson have better distribution than dubravka? 

[Howay 12447]

Think you’ve got the expected assists flipped there, Paqueta creates more assist opportunities. It’s not a huge difference but it’s also not as tiny as on first glance, it’s larger than the difference between Murphy and ASM. Paqueta is a bit deeper, but he’s in a weaker league. 

[The Fish 8949]

 

7 minutes ago, Dr Gloom said:

 

right, ok. so does henderson have better distribution than dubravka? 

Going off the recorded stats alone, it's nearly identical short and medium range, but Dubravka is better at long range. 

[tinofbeans 86]

13 minutes ago, Howay said:

Think you’ve got the expected assists flipped there, Paqueta creates more assist opportunities. It’s not a huge difference but it’s also not as tiny as on first glance, it’s larger than the difference between Murphy and ASM. Paqueta is a bit deeper, but he’s in a weaker league. 

thats the thing, its a step up in terms of work rate etc. those numbers seem to point to him being a way better all round footballer than a pure dribbler. no real surprise. 

st max needs to change his game, but whether he will, i doubt it. 

[Dr Gloom 19736]

15 minutes ago, The Fish said:

 

Going off the recorded stats alone, it's nearly identical short and medium range, but Dubravka is better at long range. 

So probably not a £40m upgrade on dubravka going on stats alone. If we’re shelling out big money on a keeper it’s got to be for one more comfortable with the ball at his feet. 

[The Fish 8949]

12 minutes ago, Howay said:

Think you’ve got the expected assists flipped there, Paqueta creates more assist opportunities. It’s not a huge difference but it’s also not as tiny as on first glance, it’s larger than the difference between Murphy and ASM. Paqueta is a bit deeper, but he’s in a weaker league. 

 

Up there is "Expected Assists" per90 which Paqueta 'wins' (0.2 v ASM's 0.17)

 

Below is the shot and goal creating actions per 90. In that Paqueta regard does create more shot and goal opportunities, but as per above, ASM's been creating better quality final balls.

 

[Dr Gloom 19736]

ASM's created better final balls than Paqueta? 

 

Maybe we should rethink this one

[Dr Gloom 19736]

trust the stats man to suck the fun out of a rumour. i'll stick to watching the YT highlights reel in future 

[Toonpack 6766]

2 hours ago, Craig said:

I think 5-6 is probably on the high side. I'm thinking 4-5 at most. I expect some will be retained who a lot might expect them to be released too. This is definitely a gradual project.

 

Isn't 5 players at £50 mill each, which sounds like £250 mill spend, but really is only £50Mill spend, if they were all on 5 year contracts, due to amortisation.

[The Fish 8949]

6 minutes ago, Dr Gloom said:

So probably not a £40m upgrade on dubravka going on stats alone. If we’re shelling out big money on a keeper it’s got to be for one more comfortable with the ball at his feet. 

Dunno, stats don't show the whole picture. e.g. Henderson is a young 'keeper and hasn't played a lot. Sheffield United were anomalous and Man Utd are a basket case and have been for a while. But going off FBRef, he's not an upgrade, certainly not worth £40m!