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Premiership sack race - beeb


Rob W
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Premiership sack race

By Andrew McKenzie

 

 

Magpies boss Graeme Souness

Souness warned by Shepherd

Last season Manchester City's Kevin Keegan was the favourite to be the first managerial casualty of the season.

 

But it was Newcastle boss Sir Bobby Robson, who lasted just four games, that was first out of the door.

 

In all seven clubs changed their manager during the season but who are the managers facing the sack this time around?

 

GRAEME SOUNESS - NEWCASTLE

 

Souness' popularity with the Newcastle fans is at an all-time low, following a poor showing last season and his handling of Craig Bellamy.

 

Verdict: Badly needs to get off to a good start.

 

Odds on leaving/getting sacked: 3-1.

 

CHRIS COLEMAN - FULHAM

 

Coleman failed to build on a promising start to his managerial career and Fulham owner Mohamed Al Fayed will be looking to see an improvement this term.

 

Verdict: Pressure to perform.

 

Odds: 5-1

 

ALAN PARDEW - WEST HAM

 

Pardew has yet to convince West Ham supporters he is the man for the job and probably only survived last season due to their play-off win.

 

Verdict: On thin ice.

 

Odds: 8-1.

 

ALAIN PERRIN - PORTSMOUTH

 

A shock appointment, Perrin has started a major rebuilding job at Fratton Park but will he be given time to see it through?

 

Verdict: An unknown quantity in the Premiership.

 

Odds: 12-1.

 

ALAN CURBISHLEY - CHARLTON

 

Has done a wonderful job to establish the Addicks in the Premiership but has had to contend with raised, and some would argue unreasonable, expectations.

 

Verdict: More likely to be poached than sacked.

 

Odds: 14-1.

 

PAUL JEWELL - WIGAN

 

Has performed minor miracles to take Wigan into the top flight and he should be safe even if the Latics go down.

 

Verdict: Has time on his side.

 

Odds: 14-1.

 

MICK McCARTHY - SUNDERLAND

 

Has done a wonderful job in difficult circumstances and is likely to be given the chance to show he can keep his young side up.

 

Verdict: Looks to have long-term future on Wearside.

 

Odds: 14-1.

 

STEVE McCLAREN - MIDDLESBROUGH

 

Almost untouchable after leading them into Europe for a second season running.

 

Verdict: Safe from the sack but hotly tipped as a potential England boss.

 

Odds: 16-1.

 

STUART PEARCE - MANCHESTER CITY

 

After last season's honeymoon period he endured a difficult summer and we will now see the true test of his managerial skills.

 

Verdict: Potential to struggle.

 

Odds: 16-1.

 

DAVID O'LEARY - ASTON VILLA

 

Nobody is safe while Doug Ellis is still in charge, but O'Leary has done about as good a job as anyone could at Villa.

 

Verdict: Safe for now.

 

Odds: 16-1.

 

BRYAN ROBSON - WEST BROM

 

Defied the odds and his critics by saving the Baggies from the drop last time and deserves the chance to see the job through.

 

Verdict: Reputation restored.

 

Odds: 16-1.

 

STEVE BRUCE - BIRMINGHAM

 

Bruce has established Birmingham in the Premiership and looks to be taking the club places.

 

Verdict: More likely to jump than be pushed.

 

Odds: 20-1.

 

MARK HUGHES - BLACKBURN

 

Steered Rovers away from trouble last time after leaving Wales for Ewood Park and has been backed to do the same this season.

 

Verdict: Staying put.

 

Odds: 20-1.

 

SIR ALEX FERGUSON - MANCHESTER UNITED

 

The idea that he would not be in the Old Trafford hot-seat was barely imaginable a year ago, but with Malcolm Glazer in charge it is no longer such an unlikely prospect.

 

Verdict: With new owners comes new pressures.

 

Odds: 25-1.

 

DAVID MOYES - EVERTON

 

Should probably be given a job for life after leading Everton into the Champions League but has not had the best of summers.

 

Verdict: On safe ground at Goodison.

 

Odds: 25-1.

 

SAM ALLARDYCE - BOLTON

 

Enjoyed his best ever campaign last season by guiding the Trotters to sixth in the table and a place in the Uefa Cup.

 

Verdict: Part of the furniture at the Reebok.

 

Odds: 28-1.

 

RAFAEL BENITEZ - LIVERPOOL

 

Champions of Europe in his first season and new contracts for Steven Gerrard and Jamie Carragher. Can he do no wrong?

 

Verdict: The revolution has only just begun.

 

Odds: 40-1.

 

MARTIN JOL - TOTTENHAM

 

Spurs have lost their manager before Christmas in each of the last two seasons, but surely even they can see they should give the talented Jol time.

 

Verdict: Should be safe.

 

Odds: 40-1.

 

ARSENE WENGER - ARSENAL

 

Finished a distant second last season and then lost his captain in the summer, but Wenger has shown time and time again he can overcome any obstacle thrown at him.

 

Verdict: The job is his for as long as he wants it.

 

Odds: 50-1.

 

JOSE MOURINHO - CHELSEA

 

On his arrival he predicted greatness and on the basis of his first season it looks like he is as good as his word.

 

Verdict: Building a dynasty at Stamford Bridge.

 

Odds: 66-1.

 

No manager to leave a Premiership club in the 2005-2006 season. Odds: 33-1

 

# Odds from Blue Square are on the first manager to leave his club and correct on 8 August.

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  • 4 years later...

Hughton's the favourite to be the first out the door this season....

 

http://www.oddschecker.com/football/englis...r-to-leave-post

 

I don't think Ashley would sack him though, even if we were relegated bottom of the league Hughton has been the most stable manager Ashley has had. Now the club are in a position to survive the financial impact of relegation I think he's happy to live with it.

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Hughton's the favourite to be the first out the door this season....

 

http://www.oddschecker.com/football/englis...r-to-leave-post

 

I don't think Ashley would sack him though, even if we were relegated bottom of the league Hughton has been the most stable manager Ashley has had. Now the club are in a position to survive the financial impact of relegation I think he's happy to live with it.

 

 

utterly depressing

 

:)

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god, what a depressing thought. are we really destined to become another west brom style yo-yo club? happy to bounce between the two divisions

Low wage bill + yo-yo-ing between the divisions probably is Ashley's plan now. Bonus if we stay up but not the end of the world if we don't.

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god, what a depressing thought. are we really destined to become another west brom style yo-yo club? happy to bounce between the two divisions

 

At least West Brom try and play decent football. Sadly we won't even have that as a consolation

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it's not good business sense though is it? you'd think he'd try to increase value of his asset given he's clearly still looking at an exit strategy. a premier league club is worth a lot more than a championship club. why risk having to get out of the championship again? it surely won't be quite as easy next time.

 

you'd have thought he'd have learned his lesson from last time we went down. just a couple of quality signings in key areas would give us a much better chance of surviving. you don't have to throw stupid money at it but something beyond the odd freebie or loan, surely?

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it's not good business sense though is it? you'd think he'd try to increase value of his asset given he's clearly still looking at an exit strategy. a premier league club is worth a lot more than a championship club. why risk having to get out of the championship again? it surely won't be quite as easy next time.

 

you'd have thought he'd have learned his lesson from last time we went down. just a couple of quality signings in key areas would give us a much better chance of surviving. you don't have to throw stupid money at it but something beyond the odd freebie or loan, surely?

Common sense doesn't apply to Fat Mike and his cronies though does it? Maybe he's just as happy to ramp the cash out of the club if there isn't a buyer as naieve as he was......

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it's not good business sense though is it? you'd think he'd try to increase value of his asset given he's clearly still looking at an exit strategy. a premier league club is worth a lot more than a championship club. why risk having to get out of the championship again? it surely won't be quite as easy next time.

 

you'd have thought he'd have learned his lesson from last time we went down. just a couple of quality signings in key areas would give us a much better chance of surviving. you don't have to throw stupid money at it but something beyond the odd freebie or loan, surely?

 

It is good business as far as Ashley is concerned. Look at what it costs to consolidate your place in the Premier league.

 

Fulham are considered to be one of the more succesful at it and Fayed has pumped in hundreds of million.

 

We're probably still worth more than them.

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it's not good business sense though is it? you'd think he'd try to increase value of his asset given he's clearly still looking at an exit strategy. a premier league club is worth a lot more than a championship club. why risk having to get out of the championship again? it surely won't be quite as easy next time.

 

you'd have thought he'd have learned his lesson from last time we went down. just a couple of quality signings in key areas would give us a much better chance of surviving. you don't have to throw stupid money at it but something beyond the odd freebie or loan, surely?

 

It is good business as far as Ashley is concerned. Look at what it costs to consolidate your place in the Premier league.

 

Fulham are considered to be one of the more succesful at it and Fayed has pumped in hundreds of million.

 

We're probably still worth more than them.

 

Let us not forget that Fat MIke was pumping money in to the club last season, something that he'll almost certainly not have to do this season with the increased revenue. His business plan won't feature relegation.

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it's not good business sense though is it? you'd think he'd try to increase value of his asset given he's clearly still looking at an exit strategy. a premier league club is worth a lot more than a championship club. why risk having to get out of the championship again? it surely won't be quite as easy next time.

 

you'd have thought he'd have learned his lesson from last time we went down. just a couple of quality signings in key areas would give us a much better chance of surviving. you don't have to throw stupid money at it but something beyond the odd freebie or loan, surely?

 

It is good business as far as Ashley is concerned. Look at what it costs to consolidate your place in the Premier league.

 

Fulham are considered to be one of the more succesful at it and Fayed has pumped in hundreds of million.

 

We're probably still worth more than them.

 

Let us not forget that Fat MIke was pumping money in to the club last season, something that he'll almost certainly not have to do this season with the increased revenue. His business plan won't feature relegation.

 

As I wrote about the statements that came out in May....

 

They intend "to ensure that the club is run at a "break even" manner by the year 2015/2016". Initially I assumed they meant the club would be debt free. However the extra statement makes it clear that was not the intention.

 

Given that £37.7 million was lost in 2009 and £32.5 million is the expected loss for 2010, it's clear that the club intend to keep reducing yearly losses by about £5.4m every year to break even in 2016:

 

 

2009 = £37.7m loss

2010 = £32.5m loss

2011 = £27.1m loss

2012 = £21.7m loss

2013 = £16.3m loss

2014 = £10.9m loss

2015 = £5.5m loss

2016 = £0.1m loss

 

 

In order for the accounts to be signed off, Ashley will be forced to put the money into the club to cover those losses, every year. So by 2016 Ashley will have invested a further £81.6m.

 

However, with a clear statement that there will be no "capital outlay" on signing players, I can't see how such losses are projected.

 

In 2008 our accounts said Premier League TV income was £41m. The new deal is a 5% improvement on that.

 

The current Championship deal provided us £5m at best. Take away the £12m parachute payment and we'll still be at least £24m better off next season than we were last. Then you can add on any extra revenue from sponsorship, Puma and the two new kits that are about to be released (or is it three?).

 

The only way we can possibly lose just £5m less than we did last season is to use £20m of the additional income for something. Which leaves 3 possibilities

 

1. We'll spend £20m on players each season and Ashley will cover the reducing losses as turnover improves....but that contradicts the "no further capital outlay" statement.

 

2. We'll spend £20m on clearing the bank overdraft...but that only explains year one. Once that is paid there is no other debt remaining (other than to Ashley) so we should start to turn a profit ahead of plan.

 

3. We'll spend £20m on covering Ashley's loans....but why would Ashley put his own money in only to take it out again? That's basically the same as breaking even next year...which also contradicts the 5 year plan, and the statement that those loans are not being repaid.

 

Of course, my assumption throughout this post has been that the plan is based on staying in the Premier League.

 

It's taken me this long to realise the plan is to avoid a loss even if we get relegated back to the championship.

 

A plan for failure.

 

http://nufc-ashlies.blogspot.com/2010/05/t...nd-that-is.html

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