Burb

I doubt Ashley has suddenly called his dogs off, having spent months preparing these legal steps. Either the Premier League have reached out with some kind of olive branch or (most likely) some administrator at Blackstone Chambers sat on the wrong part of their keyboard.

Well he says that it's "partly supposition", which probably isn't enough to publish such an accusation, particularly given his outlet's whole shtick is quality.

I was talking via Twitter DM with a very respectable journalist (out of politeness I won't say his name, although I'm sure I could ask to reveal it if required), and he thinks that there are strong disagreements within the Premier League about whether they actually want the takeover to go through or not, which has led to very mixed messages being communicated to NUFC and the buying consortum. On another note, an opinion I keep reading on Twitter is that Blackstone Chambers wouldn't have agreed to take on Ashley's forthcoming case against the Premier League unless they were sure they had a very strong argument; in your opinion, Isegrim, how much logic is there to this theory?

Sorry only just logged back in. This feels a little out of date now but anyway: -Not necessarily. -Why would the court case be held in the UK? The key word was "dodgy"; short of sending in the British military to occupy Qatar and overthrow their domestic court system, there is no way the Premier League could "force" the Qataris to make good on their payments. Of course it would invalidate the Premier League/beIN contract meaning that the Premier League can resell the outstanding years for the MENA rights, but the Qataris could challenge this in the UK courts (see below points), and the Premier League would be negotiating any new contract from a very weak and desperate position. -Almost all of which goes directly to the clubs. But disregarding the financial aspect, what of the optics of the Premier League going to court with its biggest foreign partners over their purported failing to support them in a dispute about piracy? All the Premier League has is its branding. -I agree but it doesn't discount that beIN have been very productive partners for the Premier League and that losing their interest would be a significant blow to the market value of their rights in the MENA region. They are also an organisation and country that have their manipulative little fingers in many different pies all across world football. They hold the considerable influence to be a very damaging enemy of the Premier League, whether we like it or not.

Thanks, I signed. I'd edit your original post too just in case people don't see your correction here

Is the link working? 404s for me

Everything feels very grey. The Qataris don't have to prove anything to cause damage to the Premier League - -They could stop broadcasting Premier League matches in MENA until 2022 and hurt the product's popularity -They could withhold due payments (justified as "compensation" through a dodgy Qatari court ruling) -They could utilise their bottomless moneypit to take the Premier League through an expensive and tedious court case in the UK (regardless of whether they actually won it or not) -Even simply refusing to bid for future media rights would lose the Premier League a very valuable customer, and potentially even make them a very influential enemy It doesn't matter that the Saudis probably deserve to pass the O&D test far more than they deserve to fail it, the Premier League want their hands to be completely tied in front of beIN in approving this deal. If the approval can be interpreted in any way by the Qataris as a subjective decision for Saudi Arabia against them...

Indeed thanks. Personally my mind keeps coming back to beIN Sports having submitted a QC's report to the Premier League detailing why they believe there is a legal case for rejecting the Saudi bid: https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/lawyers-report-urges-premier-league-to-block-newcastle-takeover-h5mv83jq3 I would bet anything that the Premier League are using this as a road map in order to approve the takeover in an entirely legally watertight manner, knowing that they are likely to have to head off the points raised by beIN within the report afterwards, in as transient a fashion as possible. Therefore, whilst the distinction between the PIF and the ruling government may be a possibly, even probably legally watertight assertion - and they certainly cannot reject the takeover based on this - it is also not an unchallengeably definitely legally watertight assertion, and so the Premier League need the Saudis to help them out by making it such.

Totally agree, it just seems like the PL are trying to build a case, not for court, or even specifically for the outcome of this O&D test, but because they foresee this big bust up with beIN coming and they need powerful arguments to minimise the outrage of the Qataris as you say, essentially "we drove a really hard bargain, in the end the Saudis' legal entity argument was just too clear cut". Out of curiosity Isegrim, if the Premier League did go down the path that some seem to suggest - indefinitely stalling their decision, allowing the Saudis' exclusivity to lapse, Ashley then negotiating with a rival bidder and the Premier League approving that rival bidder (either because they can conduct two O&D tests concurrently or because Ashley withdraws the Saudis' bid) - would the Saudis have any means of legal recourse against the Premier League, or is the no timeframe for the O&D test essentially a catchall loophole for the Premier League to exploit in this situation?

Seems like the "end-game" to the successful conclusion of these negotiations. The Premier League are briefing the media in a manner similar to that seen in any high-profile negotiations, for instance where we saw the UK and EU governments briefing en masse about how the Brexit withdrawal deal was close to collapse in the final days before the negotiations' deadline. It puts pressure on the other side for last concessions and makes it look like they have driven a hard bargain on the eventual successful conclusion of the negotiations. The PIF can now make some superficial changes to their decision making structure and it'll be done.

Agreed but what else, other than a promise, can the Saudis offer the Premier League that they won't go back to faciliating piracy once approval for the takeover is given? Essentially the one magic question the Premier League really want answering is: "What reassurances do we give our broadcasting partners when they ask us why we have given the thumbs up to a country that stole from all of us?" Something tangible that the Premier League could point to, showing that approving the takeover had indisputably 100% solved the piracy issues, would be dynamite.

I'm really curious as to whether Saudi Arabia can offer anything more than a promise to the Premier League that they will not facilitate piracy in the future? On the face of it the Saudis banning beIN until at least 2022 (when they can outbid beIN on the next contract) combined with Saudi Arabia owning a Premier League club but being unable to legally broadcast any games to citizens, would seem the perfect cocktail for future piracy offences by Saudi Arabia no matter how many promises they make and how pure of heart those promises are right now. Can the UK government step in and agree a potential punishment trade embargo on Saudi Arabia if the Saudis recommit offences, can the Premier League enact punishments directly on Newcastle United for what their owners do, can the Premier League freeze all future investment and relationships with Saudi Arabia etc etc?

What’s your basis for fearing it will be rejected? It's a strange one. When I look at this deal in a cold-blooded, logical fashion, I am certain that the decision to approve this deal was made by the Premier League long ago. This is because the legal basis to block the deal seems infinitely flimsy at best and non-existent at worst, and the benefits of this deal to the Premier League and English football infinitely outweigh the downsides. Richard Masters has been a sales and marketing guy within the Premier League for many years, so there is no-one better placed than he to understand the benefits of foreign investment into the Premier League. Some time ago, I considered that between the end of this week to next week would be when the deal was officially approved. This is because from a PR management viewpoint the media fallout of the announcement had to be managed, and the best place for this is buried at the beginning of Project Restart, avoiding it being fed any additional momentum by the WTO ruling occurring after its announcement, and burning out before the summer transfer window. The actions of beIN Sports this week have reasserted this thinking; of course as major stakeholders, the Premier League will have been treating beIN Sports extremely courteously during this takeover and giving them gracious thank yous every time they volunteered their generous help with the investigation. beIN's startling upscaling of aggression in the past week is a Qatari trademark indication that things are not going their way at all however. Paying for a QC's report backing their view to be the sent to the Premier League epitomises this, and gives an indication as to what the Premier League may have hinted to beIN about their own thinking for the legal basis of blocking the deal. That is my logical viewpoint, but the paranoia that keeps nagging me is that we are in particularly emotional times. Will Richard Masters and co. find the calling of the media-created "People's Champion" option irresistible - reject the deal, ignore the long-term drawbacks, receive the temporary faux-adulation of beIN, Fifa, Uefa, rival league associations, the British media et al.? I seriously doubt the Premier League are so stupid.