Christmas Tree

Massive boost to May getting Amber Rudd back in there batting for her.

From the CBI We are united in the view that the Government’s proposed deal represents hard-won progress. It requires all sides – including business – to compromise, Despite the political noise at Westminster, the real life implications for people and regions across the UK are what really matter. Business urges all involved to assess the way forward on this basis.”

Only 100 to go and she’ll catch up to JC’s record on resignations

Junior health minister / May loyalists / brexiteer. Looking after domestic Brexit readiness apparently.

Nobody knows til Graham Brady pipes up. He hasn’t. She’ll romp home regardless.

That’s the issue though now, the narrative will move from holding people responsible to what Labour will actually deliver should they get in. Will they hold themselves to the six tests? If not, what do they believe they can get. Staying in the single market / keeping FOM. Staying in the CU / giving up trade deals.

Could be argued that by defeating them May is even stronger. That momentum again

Also, the most corrupt thing in British politics is Labours fluff that they could negotiate a super duper Brexit deal (Their six tests). It’s worked well politically while Mays deal was unknown, but now that’s going to come under a lot more challenge in the coming weeks.

Mans according to sources close to Graham Brady, not 48 letters in. ERG & JRM looking weak.

No, I’m definitely not 100% saying this will happen, I’m simply looking at the way the news cycle happens and the alternatives. The biggest majority in Parliament is for avoiding no deal. This delivers it. Once the draaama of these few days is over, the government PR (I’ll not detail again), will kick in. Eurosceptics are considering backing it and Labour MP’s. Once MP’s get back to their constituents and hear from happy businesses desperate for certainty they are going to come under increasing pressure to back it, particularly if as currently, it’s deal or no deal. So far she’s soaked up the kicking, got remainers and leavers on side. It’s all about where momentum goes from here. ( not that momentum). This from a Labour MP this morning.

Well, given she stays I’ve told you what could happen. It will be clearer in 7 days.

Interesting. Sir Desmond Swayne, eurosceptic, just interviewed on Sky news saying he could well vote for Mays deal.

Have you factored in a last resort of a PV lead by a brexiteer PM / Chancellor / treasury?

That’s your silliest post to date. They are power hungry maniacs.

Gove “staying”.

See my scenario with Boris as PM, JRM as chancellor etc

See my post on a PV. This time you’d have Patrick Mumford advising the treasury on projections

If May goes and we get a brexiteer PM I just can’t see how they get a better deal. If it ever got to PV we would have a brexiteer PM / Government and all the money / machinery promoting leave this time. A brochure to every home this time promising sunny uplands instead of project fear. Labour would still be promising to Brexit as well or risk alienating core vote at next election. It would almost be the opposite position to the last vote.

Simply because if May lasts, that’s the choice MP’s will get.

@Renton point yesterday was interesting about a minority government not being able to rule and Corbyn getting in that way was interesting. Not sure of mechanics though. However public outcry and refferendum being ignored and Corbyn getting in without an election may be problematic for Labour.

??? That’s been Labour policy since summer.

The threat of no brexit was relating to government falling not on offer from her.

Mays main talent is overcoming incredibly difficult situations.

She ruled out a PV 53 times in Parliament yesterday.