The recession

[Christmas Tree 4003]

Its a strange one - obviously people are hurting though job losses which is real but I still feel it's largely a confidence issue in terms of banks and stock markets.

 

If the toxic assets are covered by the government then the banks really have no excuse but to lend (to credible people/business).

 

 

See I agree totally with this. Until it all started to get silly last Autumn, I didnt pass loads of houses up for sale due to repossession. I know a wide range of people from various backgrounds and wasnt aware of toxic debt. I wasnt even aware of job losses until after it went tits up.

 

So who borrowed all the toxic debt????? Parky

 

If it wasnt the average joe in Britain, then I see no reason why people wont carry on as before when credit frees up.

 

I know people had lots of personal debt, but virtually everyone I know would class this as managable debt.

 

Very confused on who has fucked up.

[Park Life 71]

Its a strange one - obviously people are hurting though job losses which is real but I still feel it's largely a confidence issue in terms of banks and stock markets.

 

If the toxic assets are covered by the government then the banks really have no excuse but to lend (to credible people/business).

 

 

See I agree totally with this. Until it all started to get silly last Autumn, I didnt pass loads of houses up for sale due to repossession. I know a wide range of people from various backgrounds and wasnt aware of toxic debt. I wasnt even aware of job losses until after it went tits up.

 

So who borrowed all the toxic debt????? Parky

 

If it wasnt the average joe in Britain, then I see no reason why people wont carry on as before when credit frees up.

 

I know people had lots of personal debt, but virtually everyone I know would class this as managable debt.

 

Very confused on who has fucked up.

 

 

 

 

 

What you need to understand is that Capitalism survives by borrowing from the future. The future borrowed the money.

[NJS 4004]

I thought they all spent the last few months writing off all the bad debt so that they could return to making profit this year.

 

As I said before we (investment bank) would have made a profit last year but for LB and Iceland - I see no reason why we won't make a profit this year.

 

Lehmann Brothers?

 

 

Yeah it cost the bank as a whole (I work for the London branch) about 1bn euros - if the US government had bailed them out as they did with AIG etc we'd have been okay.

[Christmas Tree 4003]

Its a strange one - obviously people are hurting though job losses which is real but I still feel it's largely a confidence issue in terms of banks and stock markets.

 

If the toxic assets are covered by the government then the banks really have no excuse but to lend (to credible people/business).

 

It doesn't work like that.

 

The game doesn't just stop and then start fresh form 0.

 

 

My understanding from every media source Ive ever heard on this issue is that is exactly whats happening.

 

It stopped

The toxic debt is been dumped

Banks are re-financing

It will start again

[Christmas Tree 4003]

Its a strange one - obviously people are hurting though job losses which is real but I still feel it's largely a confidence issue in terms of banks and stock markets.

 

If the toxic assets are covered by the government then the banks really have no excuse but to lend (to credible people/business).

 

 

See I agree totally with this. Until it all started to get silly last Autumn, I didnt pass loads of houses up for sale due to repossession. I know a wide range of people from various backgrounds and wasnt aware of toxic debt. I wasnt even aware of job losses until after it went tits up.

 

So who borrowed all the toxic debt????? Parky

 

If it wasnt the average joe in Britain, then I see no reason why people wont carry on as before when credit frees up.

 

I know people had lots of personal debt, but virtually everyone I know would class this as managable debt.

 

Very confused on who has fucked up.

 

 

 

 

 

What you need to understand is that Capitalism survives by borrowing from the future. The future borrowed the money.

 

 

Will that be Labours election slogan

[Park Life 71]

Its a strange one - obviously people are hurting though job losses which is real but I still feel it's largely a confidence issue in terms of banks and stock markets.

 

If the toxic assets are covered by the government then the banks really have no excuse but to lend (to credible people/business).

 

It doesn't work like that.

 

The game doesn't just stop and then start fresh form 0.

 

 

My understanding from every media source Ive ever heard on this issue is that is exactly whats happening.

 

It stopped

The toxic debt is been dumped

Banks are re-financing

It will start again

 

 

They can re-finance all they like. It's over. I paid €4 for a loaf of bread the other day. The writing is on the wall.

[Park Life 71]

Its a strange one - obviously people are hurting though job losses which is real but I still feel it's largely a confidence issue in terms of banks and stock markets.

 

If the toxic assets are covered by the government then the banks really have no excuse but to lend (to credible people/business).

 

 

See I agree totally with this. Until it all started to get silly last Autumn, I didnt pass loads of houses up for sale due to repossession. I know a wide range of people from various backgrounds and wasnt aware of toxic debt. I wasnt even aware of job losses until after it went tits up.

 

So who borrowed all the toxic debt????? Parky

 

If it wasnt the average joe in Britain, then I see no reason why people wont carry on as before when credit frees up.

 

I know people had lots of personal debt, but virtually everyone I know would class this as managable debt.

 

Very confused on who has fucked up.

 

 

 

 

 

What you need to understand is that Capitalism survives by borrowing from the future. The future borrowed the money.

 

 

Will that be Labours election slogan

 

 

If I ran the Labour Party it would be in power forever.

[NJS 4004]

Its a strange one - obviously people are hurting though job losses which is real but I still feel it's largely a confidence issue in terms of banks and stock markets.

 

If the toxic assets are covered by the government then the banks really have no excuse but to lend (to credible people/business).

 

 

See I agree totally with this. Until it all started to get silly last Autumn, I didnt pass loads of houses up for sale due to repossession. I know a wide range of people from various backgrounds and wasnt aware of toxic debt. I wasnt even aware of job losses until after it went tits up.

 

So who borrowed all the toxic debt????? Parky

 

If it wasnt the average joe in Britain, then I see no reason why people wont carry on as before when credit frees up.

 

I know people had lots of personal debt, but virtually everyone I know would class this as managable debt.

 

Very confused on who has fucked up.

 

Property prices and job losses in the US were the root cause - banks decided that asset backed securities raised on mortgages were "worthless" which caused a stampede of selling. People like Northern Rock had both deals based on this US stuff and had too many people on dodgy ground here. Again I'd argue the only good reason that property priced fall is confidence.

[Park Life 71]

Its a strange one - obviously people are hurting though job losses which is real but I still feel it's largely a confidence issue in terms of banks and stock markets.

 

If the toxic assets are covered by the government then the banks really have no excuse but to lend (to credible people/business).

 

 

See I agree totally with this. Until it all started to get silly last Autumn, I didnt pass loads of houses up for sale due to repossession. I know a wide range of people from various backgrounds and wasnt aware of toxic debt. I wasnt even aware of job losses until after it went tits up.

 

So who borrowed all the toxic debt????? Parky

 

If it wasnt the average joe in Britain, then I see no reason why people wont carry on as before when credit frees up.

 

I know people had lots of personal debt, but virtually everyone I know would class this as managable debt.

 

Very confused on who has fucked up.

 

Property prices and job losses in the US were the root cause - banks decided that asset backed securities raised on mortgages were "worthless" which caused a stampede of selling. People like Northern Rock had both deals based on this US stuff and had too many people on dodgy ground here. Again I'd argue the only good reason that property priced fall is confidence.

 

Property has no value.

[Christmas Tree 4003]

Its a strange one - obviously people are hurting though job losses which is real but I still feel it's largely a confidence issue in terms of banks and stock markets.

 

If the toxic assets are covered by the government then the banks really have no excuse but to lend (to credible people/business).

 

 

See I agree totally with this. Until it all started to get silly last Autumn, I didnt pass loads of houses up for sale due to repossession. I know a wide range of people from various backgrounds and wasnt aware of toxic debt. I wasnt even aware of job losses until after it went tits up.

 

So who borrowed all the toxic debt????? Parky

 

If it wasnt the average joe in Britain, then I see no reason why people wont carry on as before when credit frees up.

 

I know people had lots of personal debt, but virtually everyone I know would class this as managable debt.

 

Very confused on who has fucked up.

 

Property prices and job losses in the US were the root cause - banks decided that asset backed securities raised on mortgages were "worthless" which caused a stampede of selling. People like Northern Rock had both deals based on this US stuff and had too many people on dodgy ground here. Again I'd argue the only good reason that property priced fall is confidence.

 

Dont think you can ever go wrong with property as long as your not after a quick exit. Rentals are steadily increasing due to the housing slump (I assume people not being able to get mortgages) and when it does pick up, prices will once again rise. (Subject to having the right location, ofcourse).

[snakehips 0]

I was given to understand that the key to ending all this was a return to inter-bank lending?

 

I would be surprised if Joe Soap in the street (who has debts on his flexible friend) isn't concentrating on clearing a bit of that first before he goes out and buys another plasma tv or holiday in Florida. In turn, the manufacturing in China/India of items Joe Soap would have otherwise been buying, dries up. Their economies subsequently falter. The demand on oil decreases. The price of oil decreases. Profits are down. Profit margins aren't maintained. Lay-offs occur to streamline 'the business (business talk for saving money to get the profit margin back). Joe Soap loses his job. Even less plasma tv's ect are made. The economy in China/India....etc etc. A vicious cycle.

[Park Life 71]

I was given to understand that the key to ending all this was a return to inter-bank lending?

 

I would be surprised if Joe Soap in the street (who has debts on his flexible friend) isn't concentrating on clearing a bit of that first before he goes out and buys another plasma tv or holiday in Florida. In turn, the manufacturing in China/India of items Joe Soap would have otherwise been buying, dries up. Their economies subsequently falter. The demand on oil decreases. The price of oil decreases. Profits are down. Profit margins aren't maintained. Lay-offs occur to streamline 'the business (business talk for saving money to get the profit margin back). Joe Soap loses his job. Even less plasma tv's ect are made. The economy in China/India....etc etc. A vicious cycle.

 

The final phase of market capitalism is socialism which is where we are heading now with public money bailing out private infrastructure.

 

China is playing the endgame.

[ChezGiven 0]

Seriously though, from the financial perspective, its just a market adjustment. The free credit boom led to unwarranted increases in demand for housing / homeownership. This 'false' increase in demand, led to massive price increases, which led to a greater supply of credit since the prediction of rising value of the investment assets led to over-extension of credit again. This price/demand and credit/supply cycle has been going on for a long time. Some Economists have been warning of the dire consequences heading our way since before 2004. Its exacly the same as what happened during the dotcom boom, with the same dynamics, except that time the credit was for start-ups not for housing.

 

The market for credit needs to re-adjust and we are in the adjustment period. There are also other factors at play, in particular the cash reserve and liquidity ratios that banks were using on their assets, which fucked them over when their lines of credit started to go toxic. Hence the impact on the wider economy.

[Christmas Tree 4003]

I was given to understand that the key to ending all this was a return to inter-bank lending?

 

I would be surprised if Joe Soap in the street (who has debts on his flexible friend) isn't concentrating on clearing a bit of that first before he goes out and buys another plasma tv or holiday in Florida. In turn, the manufacturing in China/India of items Joe Soap would have otherwise been buying, dries up. Their economies subsequently falter. The demand on oil decreases. The price of oil decreases. Profits are down. Profit margins aren't maintained. Lay-offs occur to streamline 'the business (business talk for saving money to get the profit margin back). Joe Soap loses his job. Even less plasma tv's ect are made. The economy in China/India....etc etc. A vicious cycle.

 

And part of the cycle must be growth, again

[NJS 4004]

I was given to understand that the key to ending all this was a return to inter-bank lending?

 

 

I haven't seen any let-up in that tbh - I think its an excuse for increased caution - not necessarily a bad thing of course.

[Renton 18038]

I've got to admit that at present I know almost nothing about macro-economics at present, but I do detect Parky is talking out his arse again.

[snakehips 0]

I was given to understand that the key to ending all this was a return to inter-bank lending?

 

I would be surprised if Joe Soap in the street (who has debts on his flexible friend) isn't concentrating on clearing a bit of that first before he goes out and buys another plasma tv or holiday in Florida. In turn, the manufacturing in China/India of items Joe Soap would have otherwise been buying, dries up. Their economies subsequently falter. The demand on oil decreases. The price of oil decreases. Profits are down. Profit margins aren't maintained. Lay-offs occur to streamline 'the business (business talk for saving money to get the profit margin back). Joe Soap loses his job. Even less plasma tv's ect are made. The economy in China/India....etc etc. A vicious cycle.

 

The final phase of market capitalism is socialism which is where we are heading now with public money bailing out private infrastructure.

 

China is playing the endgame.

 

Is it not true that China basically owns USA? They (the Chinese) have been buying up bonds/suraties or somesuch gobbledigook to the tune of $100 trillion + ??

[Christmas Tree 4003]

Seriously though, from the financial perspective, its just a market adjustment. The free credit boom led to unwarranted increases in demand for housing / homeownership. This 'false' increase in demand, led to massive price increases, which led to a greater supply of credit since the prediction of rising value of the investment assets led to over-extension of credit again. This price/demand and credit/supply cycle has been going on for a long time. Some Economists have been warning of the dire consequences heading our way since before 2004. Its exacly the same as what happened during the dotcom boom, with the same dynamics, except that time the credit was for start-ups not for housing.

 

The market for credit needs to re-adjust and we are in the adjustment period. There are also other factors at play, in particular the cash reserve and liquidity ratios that banks were using on their assets, which fucked them over when their lines of credit started to go toxic. Hence the impact on the wider economy.

 

 

I used to be on a buy-to-let forum called Housemouse in 2003, and there was always one guy (like parky) who predicted the credit crunch / doom and gloom. No bugger ever took him seriously and the forums recently closed, Poor bastard, just when he's finally proved right

[Park Life 71]

Seriously though, from the financial perspective, its just a market adjustment. The free credit boom led to unwarranted increases in demand for housing / homeownership. This 'false' increase in demand, led to massive price increases, which led to a greater supply of credit since the prediction of rising value of the investment assets led to over-extension of credit again. This price/demand and credit/supply cycle has been going on for a long time. Some Economists have been warning of the dire consequences heading our way since before 2004. Its exacly the same as what happened during the dotcom boom, with the same dynamics, except that time the credit was for start-ups not for housing.

 

The market for credit needs to re-adjust and we are in the adjustment period. There are also other factors at play, in particular the cash reserve and liquidity ratios that banks were using on their assets, which fucked them over when their lines of credit started to go toxic. Hence the impact on the wider economy.

 

As my mate at Dresdner bank said "Who cares, after all its not our money".

[manc-mag 1]

I was given to understand that the key to ending all this was a return to inter-bank lending?

 

I would be surprised if Joe Soap in the street (who has debts on his flexible friend) isn't concentrating on clearing a bit of that first before he goes out and buys another plasma tv or holiday in Florida. In turn, the manufacturing in China/India of items Joe Soap would have otherwise been buying, dries up. Their economies subsequently falter. The demand on oil decreases. The price of oil decreases. Profits are down. Profit margins aren't maintained. Lay-offs occur to streamline 'the business (business talk for saving money to get the profit margin back). Joe Soap loses his job. Even less plasma tv's ect are made. The economy in China/India....etc etc. A vicious cycle.

 

Yes, yes but how does that affect J69 ffs? He's not called Joe.

[Park Life 71]

Seriously though, from the financial perspective, its just a market adjustment. The free credit boom led to unwarranted increases in demand for housing / homeownership. This 'false' increase in demand, led to massive price increases, which led to a greater supply of credit since the prediction of rising value of the investment assets led to over-extension of credit again. This price/demand and credit/supply cycle has been going on for a long time. Some Economists have been warning of the dire consequences heading our way since before 2004. Its exacly the same as what happened during the dotcom boom, with the same dynamics, except that time the credit was for start-ups not for housing.

 

The market for credit needs to re-adjust and we are in the adjustment period. There are also other factors at play, in particular the cash reserve and liquidity ratios that banks were using on their assets, which fucked them over when their lines of credit started to go toxic. Hence the impact on the wider economy.

 

 

I used to be on a buy-to-let forum called Housemouse in 2003, and there was always one guy (like parky) who predicted the credit crunch / doom and gloom. No bugger ever took him seriously and the forums recently closed, Poor bastard, just when he's finally proved right

 

 

If China sells it $ reserves for € it will be a finality.

[Park Life 71]

I was given to understand that the key to ending all this was a return to inter-bank lending?

 

I would be surprised if Joe Soap in the street (who has debts on his flexible friend) isn't concentrating on clearing a bit of that first before he goes out and buys another plasma tv or holiday in Florida. In turn, the manufacturing in China/India of items Joe Soap would have otherwise been buying, dries up. Their economies subsequently falter. The demand on oil decreases. The price of oil decreases. Profits are down. Profit margins aren't maintained. Lay-offs occur to streamline 'the business (business talk for saving money to get the profit margin back). Joe Soap loses his job. Even less plasma tv's ect are made. The economy in China/India....etc etc. A vicious cycle.

 

The final phase of market capitalism is socialism which is where we are heading now with public money bailing out private infrastructure.

 

China is playing the endgame.

 

Is it not true that China basically owns USA? They (the Chinese) have been buying up bonds/suraties or somesuch gobbledigook to the tune of $100 trillion + ??

 

 

Yes, China is going after America. America can't win it can only fight a war with China.

[NJS 4004]

I've got to admit that at present I know almost nothing about macro-economics at present, but I do detect Parky is talking out his arse again.

 

 

Some of his barbs show his heart is in the right place.

 

I often feel like a traitor working for a bank given some of my anti-capitalist leanings - I've just agreed to work from home for 2 days next week to avoid the protests in the city but part of me would like to join them

[Renton 18038]

I was given to understand that the key to ending all this was a return to inter-bank lending?

 

I would be surprised if Joe Soap in the street (who has debts on his flexible friend) isn't concentrating on clearing a bit of that first before he goes out and buys another plasma tv or holiday in Florida. In turn, the manufacturing in China/India of items Joe Soap would have otherwise been buying, dries up. Their economies subsequently falter. The demand on oil decreases. The price of oil decreases. Profits are down. Profit margins aren't maintained. Lay-offs occur to streamline 'the business (business talk for saving money to get the profit margin back). Joe Soap loses his job. Even less plasma tv's ect are made. The economy in China/India....etc etc. A vicious cycle.

 

Yes, yes but how does that affect J69 ffs? He's not called Joe.

 

Are you sure the 'J' doesn't stand for Joe?

[snakehips 0]

I was given to understand that the key to ending all this was a return to inter-bank lending?

 

I would be surprised if Joe Soap in the street (who has debts on his flexible friend) isn't concentrating on clearing a bit of that first before he goes out and buys another plasma tv or holiday in Florida. In turn, the manufacturing in China/India of items Joe Soap would have otherwise been buying, dries up. Their economies subsequently falter. The demand on oil decreases. The price of oil decreases. Profits are down. Profit margins aren't maintained. Lay-offs occur to streamline 'the business (business talk for saving money to get the profit margin back). Joe Soap loses his job. Even less plasma tv's ect are made. The economy in China/India....etc etc. A vicious cycle.

 

Yes, yes but how does that affect J69 ffs? He's not called Joe.

 

Are you sure the 'J' doesn't stand for Joe?

 

Aye, Joe 90. A right specky cunt.