Rayvin
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Posts posted by Rayvin
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2 minutes ago, Dr Gloom said:
that's the only strategy as far as i can tell - hoover up the floating voters in the middle by default by not promising - or standing for - anything. it's not exactly an inspiring vision for the future, i agree, but it worked for biden.
there are two ways to look at it: it's either a massive missed opportunity to bring about transformative change from a position of strength, or the win at all costs strategy will pave the way for stealth policies that will reverse some of the damage the tories have done to the country. i guess time will tell. however, i do think it's true that most elections are won from the centre, but once in power the governing party can introduce legislation that matters, that wasn't in the manifesto
Agree here, and I'm open to the reality that it could be the latter.
Mind you, we should look cautiously at the US situation too - it worked for Biden on that occasion but he seems to be right back against Trump again now, with the latter ahead in the polls. My personal belief is that you do need to come up with a way to 'win' at some point, and that involves actually having a vision for where the country needs to go. Britain is still stuck in a slow motion car crash, and while Labour will at least hit the brakes, it's not about to start trying to turn the car around. We're going to continue off the cliff until someone with some ideas comes along.
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Interesting article from the Guardian here on perceptions of Labour beyond just the polling.
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2024/apr/22/labour-tories-election-polls-analysis
Starmer's Labour are polling lower than Milliband and Corbyn on:
- Keeping Promises
- Understanding the problems the country faces
And are variable (the same? only slightly better?) than both on
- Good team of leaders
- Fit to govern
The Tories have nosedived on every metric. So as I guess we all know, this just confirms that Labour is winning by default, not because they are seen as having anything to offer.
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4 minutes ago, Renton said:
Very sorry to hear about the personal situation there Rayvin, hope it works out for you. I honestly believe movement between countries will be one of the first things to improve after the election. Not full FoM maybe, but something to make your situation more bearable hopefully. It will be more than you'd get under the tories, for sure. I found the timing of Van der Lyen's "offer" odd, but it will still be on the table I reckon after a GE when it will be taken up. Although even a young one like you must be in his 30s now?
I am, she's not. That offer would have been a godsend tbh, but frankly it appeared out of nowhere and was shot down almost as quick, so I didn't exactly have time to get my hopes up.
I'm not really trying to justify my position solely on that anyway as I did feel very strongly about this anyway. It's just extra context.
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4 hours ago, Dr Gloom said:
I definitely don’t think you’re a simpleton! But why do you need a party to run on a rejoin ticket given you know how long it’s going to take to implement? It’s just political suicide at this point, right?As I've said before, if everyone voted Labour despite misgivings and unhappiness with certain policies, then Labour would never be motivated to change the way they operate. They would simply stay where they are.
Withholding my vote is the only way I can demonstrate to Starmer that his lies were unacceptable, and that he cannot take me for granted. So it's not even about thinking that we can just pop back into the EU at this point, it's that Labour are refusing to tell the truth on how damaging this has been, and that we need to walk it back. Until they do that, I won't vote for them - with the exception of if they push for voting reform. I can justify that vote to myself on the basis that it saves us from this binary nonsense which only serves to entrench stupid policies like Brexit.
I'm not expecting I am noticed, or that I achieve anything with this. I simply can't not do it. It would be an erosion of my sense of self, and the values that are important to me. All for what? A vote that is meaningless for a party that won't notice either way, and will win without me. I'm better off preserving my sense of self since at least that is an impact I can feel.
If you need this to make more sense in a pragmatic way than it does, my partner is European and we are struggling to find a way for her to be here, meaning that much of my life involves being separated from someone I care about. Now, I would have taken this stance anyway I like to think, but that specific reality does rather underline it. Labour have nothing to offer me that will make that any better. They just continue to spit in my face to placate fucking morons. I have no respect for that, and I won't vote for what I don't respect.
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1 minute ago, Dr Gloom said:
I wholeheartedly agree about rejoining. But it just isn’t politically possible in this election cycle. I can see how you must feel politically homeless however as every major party has come to this conclusion, other than the SNP.
I agree with Renton too though. As soon as they win power Labour will start unilaterally aligning regulation in certain key areas - whether it’s cars, chemicals, food and drink etc.
But it’s not as simple as just rejoining. The EU wouldn’t have us back anytime soon. We have to prove to them that the headbangers aren’t in charge anymore. And that’s going to talk time and patience
Honestly I do feel like you think I'm a simpleton in all of this and that I think we can just flick a switch and go back to how things were. I reckon we're 20 or 30 years off rejoining if we ever do.
That's not going to change my voting choices though. This country is beyond saving until we go back to it, and so I won't pretend that any meaningful change can come about otherwise. You have faith that Labour can rearrange some deckchairs as the ship sinks and that this will change something for the better, but I don't. So I would argue that there is simply nothing for me to vote for that I believe in. Not after all of Labour's lies and all the principles they've trampled to win.
Labour is getting nothing from me until they demonstrate that they are worth me giving them my vote on the basis of the things I care about. They consistently give me the finger with everything they say on this, so that's what I'm giving them back.
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2 minutes ago, Renton said:
Fair enough.
Can I just ask a purely pragmatic question? If Labour were pro rejoining, and won at the GE, do you think we could simply rejoin?
Im sure you know I am as pro-EU as they come - if you look back into deep history on here you'll see I was positive about the EU long before UKIP even existed. I had the EU flag as part of my profile. But I recognise its gone for 10, more likely 20 or 30 more years. The EU will not countenance us rejoining until the eurosceptic movement is utterly vanquished. May well not happen in my lifetime.
But closer alignment with the EU is definitely going to happen under Labour, the process of reconciliation will begin the day after the GE. Apart from anything else, it's the lowest hanging economic fruit available. But it's not a manifesto issue for this GE for any party, including reform and the LDs. So basing your vote on it makes little sense to me. Being pragmatic again, Labour is simply your best option and on this issue you have no representation.
My point is that someone needs to be flying the flag for rejoining and holding back their vote on this basis. No issue is as important to me as this one, and I won't endorse any party that doesn't support rejoining. Even if rejoining took years, I'd vote for a party with the balls to tell the truth on the need to go back.
My plan is to spoil my ballot remember, I don't need any of them to endorse my view. My view is meaningless to them, but while that remains the case, they are meaningless to me.
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On 19/04/2024 at 23:30, Renton said:
No. Corbyn is irrelevant now. I'm pointing out that Corbyn helped us get here in the first place, he helped facilitate Brexit. Aimed at those who won't now vote for Starmer because of his current Brexit stance (which I personally think is a facade) but happily voted for Corbyn, an actual Brexiter (behind a facade).
I resigned party membership once Corbyn's Labour took a second referendum off their manifesto, and only went back when they took it forward as a policy again in the 2019 election.
I was fucking consistent on this believe it or not.
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3 hours ago, Howmanheyman said:
"Why don't we have threads dissing U12 girls teams winning the league against boys, Reg?"
.thumb.jpg.739dde39e13ddafd14edfce9778c4eca.jpg)
"Because why would we? We're a football board having a laugh, taking the piss, talking about football. Leave it to RTG for that shite "
"Don't oppress me! It's my right as a man to discuss U12 girls teams!"
"I'm not oppressing you, but you're not an MLF?"
"I want to be one."
"What?!"
"I want to be an MLF and talk shite about U12 girls teams."
"But why? You're a Mag on a NUFC forum, we don't do that shite?"
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"Why don't we agree that CT, as a man from boldon, has the right to talk shite about U12 girls especially as he's dangerously close to Sunderland even though he's a Mag on a NUFC forum."
"But what's the point?"
"I want to invest in crypto currency as well!"
Was having a fairly shit morning, logged in here, read this and had my first proper laugh of the day. Cheers mate
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3 hours ago, Renton said:
All you lefty idealists out there need to do the right thing too.
Unless rejoining the EU or wanting voting reform are now considered to be left wing policies, I'm probably more a radical centrist at this point as opposed to anything else.
And I'm still not voting Labour, not that they need me to.
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That does make her seem a tad erratic, though I appreciate the Mirror is the Mirror. I like Stavely though, she's been the bridge between club and owners. I hope she's still playing some sort of a role.
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So is Cameron saying today that Israel are going to escalate with Iran? This is going stunningly badly for everyone involved tbh. A sobering reminder of what the breakdown of interdependency means for the world.
Still, I suppose BAE and Lockheed are having a field day.
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On 16/11/2023 at 22:55, Rayvin said:
That is the only logical view if he at some point decides to back a ceasefire. That the only thing stopping him from doing it now is that not enough innocents have been killed to satisfy Israel.
He gets some respect from me if he sticks to his guns and pushes Israel to decimate all of Gaza in an attempt to destroy Hamas because at least that will mean it is genuinely the only option he thinks there is. If at some point he flips around and says we need a ceasefire cos 20k, 30k, 50k are dead, then no, he's getting nothing from me for that. All that tells me is that he knew ceasefire is what this would come to, and he was waiting for the death toll to hit a predefined number/global outrage to become unsustainable. Instead of, y'know, doing the thing he knew he should have done from the word go.
So right now I'm really hoping Israel are successfully going to permanently eradicate Hamas for the rest of time, because that's the hill Biden has chosen to die on.
On 16/11/2023 at 23:30, Rayvin said:I am saying that there are two options out of this. One is a ceasefire. The other is the total annihilation of Hamas. Further to that, I am saying that at this point, with 10k dead, Biden better fucking believe that the only way out of this is the annihilation of Hamas, because if he turns around later at 20 or 30k dead and calls for a ceasefire, all I'm going to think is that for BIDEN PERSONALLY the key consideration in whether or not a ceasefire was the right course of action was how many innocent lives had been lost.
None of this has anything to do with Israel's view, which I strongly suspect is that the total annihilation of Hamas is achievable. Israel are not going to suddenly come up with a ceasefire as a policy suggestion on this though, so they will remain consistent to their view.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2024/apr/04/israel-us-gaza-joe-biden-benjamin-netanyahu-phone-call Biden called for a ceasefire at 30k it turns out.
Israel wiping out Hamas was never remotely realistic unless they were going to commit a full on genocide through Gaza, so I want to just flag this post back up. The whole world turning around now and saying a ceasefire has to be reached is just stomach turning. The US knew, we knew, everyone fucking knew that Israel weren't going to fucking succeed. Why did we have to let them kill 30k+ people? Because apparently we needed to let Israel kill a sufficient number of innocents so as to be somewhat 'appeased'. The world let Israel collect a blood debt on Palestinian lives.
It is beyond sickening how the world has handled this.
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Just now, Alex said:
People like you give me hope for the future. You might not feel that way yourself but you’re idealistic in a good way and well informed. Young people like that are likely to make things change. It’s the ones obsessed with what Joey Essex is up to that are the problem tbh. Not that it’s exclusively young people like. Once you’re an old cunt like me you tend to get less upset about things outside your control for the sake of your own sanity, that’s all.
A few years ago maybe. I'm not that young anymore tbf, and I'm now spent as a force for 'good'. I'm too cynical and jaded, and I can't see how any of it can ever improve in reality. The ship sailed and I lost hope when it did. I'm now just bitter, as per my previous post
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Mind you, Labour are trying to paint me (us?) as the enemies...
MIddle Class Lefties apparently are the enemy of NHS reform. Not fucking worthless, abject politicians like Wes Streeting.
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Yeah I'll definitely be cheering that outcome. Though I doubt it'll be the end of him.
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16 minutes ago, Renton said:
Not much. I'm fortunate to be Gen X so have managed to acquire some wealth with which to see me through to old age, hopefully. But then I see what the millenials and Gen Z need to contend with, including my kids, and I honestly despair. Like everything else in my life at the moment, I am just firefighting, trying to solve problems one at a time as they develop. But things can change unexpectedly for the good as well as the bad so you never know.
Although I do admit I will really, really enjoy the GE night if it goes as expected. May elections with Ben Houchen hopefully getting the boot is the aperitif.
I'll enjoy it too on some level I'm sure. Every staunch Brexiteer that goes down will be celebrated. JRM would be a real scalp, I gather he's in trouble.
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2 minutes ago, Renton said:
Couldn't agree more with Gaza and CLimate change. We should do our bit within the remit we are now an irrelevance internationally. Losing our sense of exceptualism is key, ironically I think the tories have expedited this through the disaster of Brexit.
I honestly don't think we disagree that much politically, we just see it from different angles. For me, getting the tories out of power for a generation is simply the most important thing. Got to stop the mad man knifing me before I think about healing the wounds.
There are arguments somehow if Labour need to form a coalition, particularly with the LDs, this could facilitate a route to PR. This seems extremely unlikely to me now. More likely I think, if the conservatives face near wipe out and Reform do not win a single seat with say 15% of the vote, ironically this may encourage these parties to adopt a PR stance and put more pressure on Labour. Who knows, but until this issue is sorted I don't see us getting the stability for long-term changes we need in this country regarding issues like climate change.
In fairness, none of my position is tactical or motivated by anything other than the fact that I am deeply pissed off and let down by politics in this country, and I am simply beyond being able to compromise on it any more on a personal level.
I agree that we are aligned on basically everything. The difference I think just comes down to hope/optimism for the future. You have some.
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Also not so much desperate to fail as desperate to see other people also sharing my views trying to hold them to account, which makes sense you would think in ensuring that I don't just give up on the whole thing?
Granted Gaza and climate change aren't the sum total of my issues with Labour. I'd still vote for them despite those things if they were doing either of the two things that actually mattered. On Gaza we're just a pathetic nation with no actual leadership skills, doesn't matter who is in charge, it's going to be the same. On climate change, its the same. Baked into the national psyche at this point.
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Just to clarify, I too want Labour to succeed. I just measure success in more than just winning this election. They have to actually also be good and useful in government.
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Progressive young/urban voters turning away from Labour over Gaza and climate change apparently: https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2024/apr/11/labour-may-fail-to-grab-target-seats-as-young-voters-turn-away-over-gaza-and-climate
Could just be a scare article but some suggestion it could cost them some key seats here and there. Doubt it matters in the end but hopefully something that will remind Starmer that we're not all collectively a centre right hive mind.
Sunder Katwala, the director of the non-partisan thinktank British Future, said: “This is a 2025 or 2028 challenge for Labour. There is a danger of taking your core vote for granted, and that danger will be very apparent after the election.”
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2 hours ago, NJS said:
Yes but in a nice way.
Are you a twat in real life? 🙂
I don't personally feel like I am but I suspect the same could be said for most of the Tory party
I did have a civil conversation with an ethnonationalist recently and somehow resisted the urge to cancel him, so I'm going to use that single data point to claim that I could be worse
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1 hour ago, NJS said:
more woke than Rayvin.
Do I come across as that woke to you guys
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1 minute ago, Alex said:
They were lied to though. I take your point but as we’ve said on here before it’s relatively easy to sell a bullshit vision of something that hasn’t happened. Whereas now they know they were lied to it’s different. The other thing is, which is opinion because I haven’t research to back this up, I think a lot of people who’s never even bother voting were motivated to vote in the referendum.
Yeah just to be clear then, I'm not saying that most of the British public are secret fascists. I'm saying that enough of them are stupid enough that they don't need to be in order to cause harm, and that this characteristic should be enough to keep the Tories around.
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4 minutes ago, Dr Gloom said:
Also people didn’t really know what they voting for on Brexit. If Cameron had negotiated an emergency break on immigration with the EU we probably would have got away with it. That’s what it was ultimately about, really.
It should never have gone to referendum, let alone a binary in/out one.
The Brexit vote showed the public wants more control on immigration (another reason the Tories are fucked). There’s nothing wrong with that and if doesn’t mean they would elect a far right government. I think the majority are too sensible/boring
They still elected Johnson though, and he's certifiable. The sensible/boring British public voted for this complete fiasco we've had for the last 5 years. Clearly they didn't understand how mental their choice was going to be, but all that means is that they lack the critical thinking skills to understand the consequences of what they're voting for, meaning it could easily happen again. That's my point - the British public cannot be trusted not to make stupid voting decisions on the right hand side of the political spectrum.
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Politics
in General Chat
Posted
Possible ignorance here, but before the Tories started kicking off about this particular issue I assume it was already a thing. Like it didn't just start happening suddenly once the immediate devastation of Brexit was complete.
So before Rwanda and so on, what were we doing about it? And is it actually an issue, or just a more Tory nonsense?