Rayvin
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Posts
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Days Won
15
Everything posted by Rayvin
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He is, he's refused to leave as I understand it. Much will depend on whether the government can remain functional in some form or another, or how well the chain of command is preserved.
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Some commentators are saying Putin's grasp of reality has slipped altogether now, so on that basis we probably can't rely on him being a rational actor. I don't know if it's true though, this all seems very calculated to me.
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I've read some people saying that Ukraine isn't faring as badly as it seems - they're engaging in asymmetric warfare which effectively means they've recognised they're the weaker player and have ceded ground with only light resistance (which does map against the number of casualties being quite low). This means the likelihood is that the Russians take Kyiv, which is a sad day indeed, but from that point on they're going to have absolute hell on their hands. I suspect Putin would have preferred that Ukraine met him head on, but that doesn't appear to be what's happening. So either Ukraine is about to give up without much of a fight at all, or they're preparing for a long and protracted fight.
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Kremlin apparently acknowledging that Ukraine has expressed willingness to sign a neutrality pledge with guarantees that it will never join NATO. Also expects relationships with Western countries to return to normal after this... Putin looking for a way out?
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Guardian is reporting that Ukraine is forbidding men and boys aged 16 to 60 from leaving the country. Zelenskiy told his people that he called for help, but sees no one ready to stand with them. He says it looks dire but won't leave the capital. Ukrainian ship was destroyed along with every soul on board after being told to stand down by a Russian military ship. The Ukrainians told the Russians to go fuck themselves in response. Brave of them.
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Could Chernobyl be used to threaten Europe and others into letting this happen, with the threat that "assurances cannot be made of how safe it will be". Honestly if we've let that happen then we've all accepted that we're just going to lose Ukraine altogether.
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Retaliatory action in what sense, what is he gonna do other than cut them off, something everyone seems to have accepted anyway? Pathetic response.
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What actually did go on with you two anyway? Did one of you declare a war of self defence as a pretext for invading the other's back garden?
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I don't agree with all of this but I respect the view. I do agree with some of it. I don't think any of it changes my belief that whoever started this, it needs ending.
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Exactly. It doesn't matter at all if anything that we've pretended to be over the years is actually true.
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So am I, for what it's worth. But only one side is waving guns around in the face of Europe. If this was happening on America's doorstep I might see it differently, but it's not. It's happening right on the edge of the EU, the last bastion of hope for the civilised world in any sense whatsoever (IMO). We need to respond or he will keep going. People (maybe not you, can't remember - but people aligned with your view at least) were saying just a few days ago "oh he won't invade, it's posturing, he's living rent free in the US' head haha" and all that bullshit. Well he invaded. And he's gone for the whole fucking country. And I note that in those same circles, Putin is no longer the 'glorious madlad standing up to the US' but more of a 'well, you know, this is what happens... I hate it as much as you do, but we did ask for it". You and I have no idea if he will or will not stop here, but the very fact that he has done this at all means we have to assume he won't. We need to respond in the face of fascist totalitarianism. Against someone who fans the flames of said fascist totalitarianism the world over.
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Calls in Europe for this to be the 'whatever it takes' moment as far as sanctions go. Not sure what that means tbh but I guess we may as well go as far as possible.
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If it is a reality, and I do accept that not that it justifies anything, then we have to be the bigger dog. This is a western styled democracy that is about to be toppled by a totalitarian dictatorship.
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So we start mobilising and tell Putin that either he leaves or we remove him once mobilised.
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The EU, if you combined forces and threw the UK in, has a standing army of about 1 million troops. No fucking way is Russia repelling that if they went into Ukraine.
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People on the left have told me Russia is self sufficient, the centre say this is ruining them. I don't know who to believe on that front but it seems clear to me that Putin will have expected the sanctions and isn't troubled by them. I don't know why you're bringing in Iraq and Afghanistan unless you think two wrongs make a right and are condoning a race to the bottom on the grounds that the US started it. I've had this conversation all over the place in recent days and it always comes down to the reality that some people think bloodying the nose of the US is more important that the lives of the people on BOTH sides who are dying for this fucking madness.
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Aside from anything else, he shouldn't 'get away with this' at all. It's a sovereign nation ffs. A country which had genocide carried out against it by the very nation that is trying to conquer it. He should not get away with this.
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Yes, that's what I think - but then I also think we should be stopping him. He is testing us repeatedly and I am convinced will try for a minor NATO country next time out. If we really think this stops at Ukraine, letting him have it, while deplorable and cowardly, is probably the rational thing to do. If we think he'll probably continue, then we'd be better off making him pay in lives and money for every step he tries to take. We're giving him a free hit.
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Moreover, Putin has just declared war on the Ukraine for 'self defence' We can say whatever we damn well want at this point, in terms of justifications.
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Fewer lives are lost if it's over fast.
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True. I still feel as though he wouldn't have committed to this unless he was sure that he could take it, and that the West wouldn't intervene though. He's not an idiot.
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Without air support or access to the same level of sophisticated technology. agorodnyuk describes multiple ground invasions on several fronts. He adds:
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Invading Ukraine is rational (for an ambitious and empire driven man) if he believes no one will stop him.
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But that only happens if we chase him to Moscow, surely. He's not going to launch nukes over being pushed out of Ukraine. And if he's about to lose power in Russia, he won't be able to launch them anyway.
