Big Onion 0 Posted May 31, 2009 Share Posted May 31, 2009 (edited) Matt, you seriously think he's gonna sell a club for £100m that has debts outstanding of £100m +, payable to him, and just go "Oh don't worry about that. That's all included in the £100m acquisition price." What's his alternative? You can't value the club on future profits, because it doesn't make any, or on cash flows, as they're all negative and will get worse. We don't have a Premier League place and would need considerable investment to get it back. He has poured money down a black hole and he's not getting it back. Further along the line he'd have to find more money or face admininstration pressure. I'd hazard a guess that his loan is junior to anything from the banks as well but if they weren't then I'm stuggling to see him getting all of his money back in that situation. If he left it to Barclays they would have us into and out of pre-pack administration in a fortnight. That's his worst case scenario. If an offer comes in a penny better, he should take it. Anyone valuing this business will see his shareholder loans as equity by any other name. Rather than looking at what gone into the business, bidders should be looking at looming obligations. That's what will force Ashley's hand. Is it at all possible Ashley might end up looking at administration as his best option? *Googles pre-pack administration* Edited May 31, 2009 by Big Onion Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Park Life 70 Posted May 31, 2009 Share Posted May 31, 2009 Matt, you seriously think he's gonna sell a club for £100m that has debts outstanding of £100m +, payable to him, and just go "Oh don't worry about that. That's all included in the £100m acquisition price." So basically you're saying that the price of the club has barely dropped at all then? Why would he even attempt that, after failing to do it when the club was in the premiership? He was asking anywhere between £300m and £450m according to reports last year. The Dubai lot were quoted a fantastic sum and said no immediately (didn't even meet the main man he was asking so much). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Hova Posted May 31, 2009 Share Posted May 31, 2009 He has poured money down a black hole and he's not getting it back. The £100Mil was 'loaned' to the club, it wasn't money invested. So I'll be surprised if he'd just 'write' it off. Can't see it myself. When he put that money in, he was still in his honeymoon period. Do we know for sure that he loaned it to the club, and I don't know much about this - would it be legal to suddenly declare it as a loan after things started going pear-shaped? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Park Life 70 Posted May 31, 2009 Share Posted May 31, 2009 My understanding is that the club debt inc the one to MA is 170m in total. Does anyone really know? This isn't the real issue however, running costs inc wages are at club killing levels. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
peasepud 59 Posted May 31, 2009 Share Posted May 31, 2009 Is it all at possible Ashley might end up looking at administration as his best option? *Googles pre-pack administration* At least its not 2-Pac administration Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Matt 0 Posted May 31, 2009 Share Posted May 31, 2009 (edited) Is it at all possible Ashley might end up looking at administration as his best option? A distant last. I'm convinced he'd get more in a sale than in admin. FA rules about 'football creditors' being repaid in full as an obligation of league membership make things difficult for other creditors. I think football creditors would include players, not just other clubs so admin is no way for us to be rid of the wage obligation. A few lads at work deal with 'problem' business and their list of priorities is very different to how a bank would normally approach a business. A lot depends on where Barclays is. The external creditor element has made the situation very difficult. We don't want to end up at the hands of any bank-led restructuring mobs. Edited May 31, 2009 by Matt Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Park Life 70 Posted May 31, 2009 Share Posted May 31, 2009 Is it at all possible Ashley might end up looking at administration as his best option? A distant last. I'm convinced he'd get more in a sale than in admin. FA rules about 'football creditors' being repaid in full as an obligation of league membership make things difficult for other creditors. I think football creditors would include players, not just other clubs so admin is no way for us to be rid of the wage obligation. A few lads at work deal with 'problem' business and their list of priorities is very different to how a bank would normally approach a business. A lot depends on where Barclays is. The external creditor element has made the situation very difficult. We don't want to end up at the hands of any bank-led restructuring mobs. What's your gut feeling Matt, could this go bad? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Happy Face 29 Posted May 31, 2009 Share Posted May 31, 2009 He has poured money down a black hole and he's not getting it back. The £100Mil was 'loaned' to the club, it wasn't money invested. So I'll be surprised if he'd just 'write' it off. Can't see it myself. When he put that money in, he was still in his honeymoon period. Do we know for sure that he loaned it to the club, and I don't know much about this - would it be legal to suddenly declare it as a loan after things started going pear-shaped? From http://www.nufc-finances.org.uk/... Of the £149m debt roughly£100m is owed to Mike Ashley. He has said that this is a loan that isn't expected to have to be paid back before July 2009 at the earliest, unless the club is bought from him. Lots of good stuff in the 2008 results section of that site. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Matt 0 Posted May 31, 2009 Share Posted May 31, 2009 (edited) (@ Parky) Na. One of my mates at work works in restructuring and he deals with some absolute horrorshows- businesses that make us look like Microsoft- so if there's hope for them them there's hope for us as well. I reckon Ashley's written this off now. Busted flush. He just wants to get back what he possibly can without putting any more money in. That means a sale at whatever he can get. I think it's a sensible approach from him. However a new board will need to have a significant amount of capital to tide us over the next couple of seasons. Puts us up for another transitional period though! Edited May 31, 2009 by Matt Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Park Life 70 Posted May 31, 2009 Share Posted May 31, 2009 He has poured money down a black hole and he's not getting it back. The £100Mil was 'loaned' to the club, it wasn't money invested. So I'll be surprised if he'd just 'write' it off. Can't see it myself. When he put that money in, he was still in his honeymoon period. Do we know for sure that he loaned it to the club, and I don't know much about this - would it be legal to suddenly declare it as a loan after things started going pear-shaped? From http://www.nufc-finances.org.uk/... Of the £149m debt roughly£100m is owed to Mike Ashley. He has said that this is a loan that isn't expected to have to be paid back before July 2009 at the earliest, unless the club is bought from him. Lots of good stuff in the 2008 results section of that site. Roughly the current situation is that we have to find 20m every 3 months for player wages. Without PL money that is a considerable danger. After July they will be trying to halve that I'd imagine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Park Life 70 Posted May 31, 2009 Share Posted May 31, 2009 (@ Parky) Na. One of my mates at work works in restructuring and he deals with some absolute horrorshows- businesses that make us look like Microsoft- so if there's hope for them them there's hope for us as well. I reckon Ashley's written this off now. Busted flush. He just wants to get back what he possibly can without putting any more money in. That means a sale at whatever he can get. I think it's a sensible approach from him. However a new board will need to have a significant amount of capital to tide us over the next couple of seasons. Puts us up for another transitional period though! Thanks. Not too bothered about a couple of transitional seasons as long as the club is still there in its current form. The new buyers will need to invest around 130-160m on top of purchase if we stay out the PL for 2 years by my clumsy sums. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Craig 6307 Posted May 31, 2009 Share Posted May 31, 2009 He has poured money down a black hole and he's not getting it back. He'll put the club into administration before he accepts that. Gemmill is right. The price to an interested party is £200m but Ashley has structured the finances so that the price tag is only £100m. The 'club' effectively doesn't owe anything at the moment as he owns it. However as soon as he flogs it, he'll be owed an extra £100m and you can guarantee he'll be more of a cunt than any loan shark from your worst nightmare. We're fucked basically. £200m for a championship club? And not a very good one at that! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom 13876 Posted May 31, 2009 Share Posted May 31, 2009 Well even stability and rebuilding in the championship is better than the retard rollercoaster ride we have been on so far! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Happy Face 29 Posted May 31, 2009 Share Posted May 31, 2009 .com's reporting it like he doesn't want the loan back like... We're given to understand that the £100m price tag is an "all-in" price and that Ashley has written off the estimated £110m of additional funding that he shored up the club with - in other words a new owner does inherit that extra sum as a liability. I am a mong like so maybe I've misunderstood. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Craig 6307 Posted May 31, 2009 Share Posted May 31, 2009 He has poured money down a black hole and he's not getting it back. The £100Mil was 'loaned' to the club, it wasn't money invested. So I'll be surprised if he'd just 'write' it off. Can't see it myself. When he put that money in, he was still in his honeymoon period. Do we know for sure that he loaned it to the club, and I don't know much about this - would it be legal to suddenly declare it as a loan after things started going pear-shaped? From http://www.nufc-finances.org.uk/... Of the £149m debt roughly£100m is owed to Mike Ashley. He has said that this is a loan that isn't expected to have to be paid back before July 2009 at the earliest, unless the club is bought from him. Lots of good stuff in the 2008 results section of that site. Just realised... he's hoping to fuck off before all the accounts details from last summer are published, isn't he? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Park Life 70 Posted May 31, 2009 Share Posted May 31, 2009 He has poured money down a black hole and he's not getting it back. He'll put the club into administration before he accepts that. Gemmill is right. The to an interested party is £200m but Ashley has structured the finances so that the price tag is only £100m. The 'club' effectively doesn't owe anything at the moment as he owns it. However as soon as he flogs it, he'll be owed an extra £100m and you can guarantee he'll be more of a cunt than any loan shark from your worst nightmare. We're fucked basically. £200m for a championship club? And not a very good one at that! No way he can add his 100m. Doesn't make sense. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Craig 6307 Posted May 31, 2009 Share Posted May 31, 2009 He has poured money down a black hole and he's not getting it back. He'll put the club into administration before he accepts that. Gemmill is right. The to an interested party is £200m but Ashley has structured the finances so that the price tag is only £100m. The 'club' effectively doesn't owe anything at the moment as he owns it. However as soon as he flogs it, he'll be owed an extra £100m and you can guarantee he'll be more of a cunt than any loan shark from your worst nightmare. We're fucked basically. £200m for a championship club? And not a very good one at that! No way he can add his 100m. Doesn't make sense. Why not? Newcastle United Football Club are in debt to Michael Ashley to the sum of £100m. So long as he owns the football club this is a negligable amount as it's his own interest that the money is invested. The football club still retains a value outside of this loan amount which he's listed as £100m. So if someone buys the club for £100m, it is still in debt to Mike Ashley to the tune of £100m. Are you seriously telling me he'll forget about this? Particularly as he's haemorraged half his fortune and is now reported to be only worth £700m? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Park Life 70 Posted May 31, 2009 Share Posted May 31, 2009 To think Aston Villa was purchased for 62m. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Park Life 70 Posted May 31, 2009 Share Posted May 31, 2009 He has poured money down a black hole and he's not getting it back. He'll put the club into administration before he accepts that. Gemmill is right. The to an interested party is £200m but Ashley has structured the finances so that the price tag is only £100m. The 'club' effectively doesn't owe anything at the moment as he owns it. However as soon as he flogs it, he'll be owed an extra £100m and you can guarantee he'll be more of a cunt than any loan shark from your worst nightmare. We're fucked basically. £200m for a championship club? And not a very good one at that! No way he can add his 100m. Doesn't make sense. Why not? Newcastle United Football Club are in debt to Michael Ashley to the sum of £100m. So long as he owns the football club this is a negligable amount as it's his own interest that the money is invested. The football club still retains a value outside of this loan amount which he's listed as £100m. So if someone buys the club for £100m, it is still in debt to Mike Ashley to the tune of £100m. Are you seriously telling me he'll forget about this? Particularly as he's haemorraged half his fortune and is now reported to be only worth £700m? Nobody will pay 200m for the club. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Matt 0 Posted May 31, 2009 Share Posted May 31, 2009 He has poured money down a black hole and he's not getting it back. He'll put the club into administration before he accepts that. Gemmill is right. The price to an interested party is £200m but Ashley has structured the finances so that the price tag is only £100m. The 'club' effectively doesn't owe anything at the moment as he owns it. However as soon as he flogs it, he'll be owed an extra £100m and you can guarantee he'll be more of a cunt than any loan shark from your worst nightmare. We're fucked basically. £200m for a championship club? And not a very good one at that! Why would he put it into administration? That removes his control over the business. If he liquidated it tomorrow he'd get less than selling the whole club, so that is not going to happen. Other creditors might seek this route if things on the bank side did not improve. A lot rests on what the score is with this Barclays overdraft- are we using it? If it's maxed out then we are not in good shape. Any buyer will have to plug this on day 1. Buyers would not put themselves at the mercy of Ashley as a debtholder even if he did want that back. They'd either pay it off entirely or agree a 'discount' price to pay him back here and now. He wants the sale- that shifts negotiating power away from him. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Park Life 70 Posted May 31, 2009 Share Posted May 31, 2009 He has poured money down a black hole and he's not getting it back. He'll put the club into administration before he accepts that. Gemmill is right. The price to an interested party is £200m but Ashley has structured the finances so that the price tag is only £100m. The 'club' effectively doesn't owe anything at the moment as he owns it. However as soon as he flogs it, he'll be owed an extra £100m and you can guarantee he'll be more of a cunt than any loan shark from your worst nightmare. We're fucked basically. £200m for a championship club? And not a very good one at that! Why would he put it into administration? That removes his control over the business. If he liquidated it tomorrow he'd get less than selling the whole club, so that is not going to happen. Other creditors might seek this route if things on the bank side did not improve. A lot rests on what the score is with this Barclays overdraft- are we using it? If it's maxed out then we are not in good shape. Any buyer will have to plug this on day 1. Buyers would not put themselves at the mercy of Ashley as a debtholder even if he did want that back. They'd either pay it off entirely or agree a 'discount' price to pay him back here and now. He wants the sale- that shifts negotiating power away from him. That's why I don't understand his front foot approach. Softly - softly keeps his position intact and he has time to get a buyer by stealth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Happy Face 29 Posted May 31, 2009 Share Posted May 31, 2009 He has poured money down a black hole and he's not getting it back. He'll put the club into administration before he accepts that. Gemmill is right. The price to an interested party is £200m but Ashley has structured the finances so that the price tag is only £100m. The 'club' effectively doesn't owe anything at the moment as he owns it. However as soon as he flogs it, he'll be owed an extra £100m and you can guarantee he'll be more of a cunt than any loan shark from your worst nightmare. We're fucked basically. £200m for a championship club? And not a very good one at that! Why would he put it into administration? That removes his control over the business. If he liquidated it tomorrow he'd get less than selling the whole club, so that is not going to happen. Other creditors might seek this route if things on the bank side did not improve. A lot rests on what the score is with this Barclays overdraft- are we using it? If it's maxed out then we are not in good shape. Any buyer will have to plug this on day 1. Buyers would not put themselves at the mercy of Ashley as a debtholder even if he did want that back. They'd either pay it off entirely or agree a 'discount' price to pay him back here and now. He wants the sale- that shifts negotiating power away from him. That's why I don't understand his front foot approach. Softly - softly keeps his position intact and he has time to get a buyer by stealth. He can't meet Shearer's terms. He can't do that AND say he's staying. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Park Life 70 Posted May 31, 2009 Share Posted May 31, 2009 He has poured money down a black hole and he's not getting it back. He'll put the club into administration before he accepts that. Gemmill is right. The price to an interested party is £200m but Ashley has structured the finances so that the price tag is only £100m. The 'club' effectively doesn't owe anything at the moment as he owns it. However as soon as he flogs it, he'll be owed an extra £100m and you can guarantee he'll be more of a cunt than any loan shark from your worst nightmare. We're fucked basically. £200m for a championship club? And not a very good one at that! Why would he put it into administration? That removes his control over the business. If he liquidated it tomorrow he'd get less than selling the whole club, so that is not going to happen. Other creditors might seek this route if things on the bank side did not improve. A lot rests on what the score is with this Barclays overdraft- are we using it? If it's maxed out then we are not in good shape. Any buyer will have to plug this on day 1. Buyers would not put themselves at the mercy of Ashley as a debtholder even if he did want that back. They'd either pay it off entirely or agree a 'discount' price to pay him back here and now. He wants the sale- that shifts negotiating power away from him. That's why I don't understand his front foot approach. Softly - softly keeps his position intact and he has time to get a buyer by stealth. He can't meet Shearer's terms. He can't do that AND say he's staying. We're fcked then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Craig 6307 Posted May 31, 2009 Share Posted May 31, 2009 He has poured money down a black hole and he's not getting it back. He'll put the club into administration before he accepts that. Gemmill is right. The price to an interested party is £200m but Ashley has structured the finances so that the price tag is only £100m. The 'club' effectively doesn't owe anything at the moment as he owns it. However as soon as he flogs it, he'll be owed an extra £100m and you can guarantee he'll be more of a cunt than any loan shark from your worst nightmare. We're fucked basically. £200m for a championship club? And not a very good one at that! Why would he put it into administration? That removes his control over the business. If he liquidated it tomorrow he'd get less than selling the whole club, so that is not going to happen. Other creditors might seek this route if things on the bank side did not improve. A lot rests on what the score is with this Barclays overdraft- are we using it? If it's maxed out then we are not in good shape. Any buyer will have to plug this on day 1. Buyers would not put themselves at the mercy of Ashley as a debtholder even if he did want that back. They'd either pay it off entirely or agree a 'discount' price to pay him back here and now. He wants the sale- that shifts negotiating power away from him. That's why I don't understand his front foot approach. Softly - softly keeps his position intact and he has time to get a buyer by stealth. He can't meet Shearer's terms. He can't do that AND say he's staying. We're fcked then. Aye Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Matt 0 Posted May 31, 2009 Share Posted May 31, 2009 Maybe he's still got those bets on HBOS open Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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