***Official Mike Ashley Euro express thread***

[Happy Face 29]

Well if that's the case then obviously the 'easy start' stuff gets put into perspective too as that becomes 'representative' also when you take half the seasons fixtures as the sample. Doesn't really bother me either way tbh, I just think most people have a very realistic critical view of things (with some disparity of emotional responses, given natural optimism/pessimism) but sadly the debate always seems to get hijacked by the very few lunatics at either end of the spectrum who insist on misrepresenting those very reasonable views.

 

As is generally the case with the more reasonable posters i'm not even sure what the argument is here. I think we agree broadly, and semantics is the only issue.

 

The first 9 games were easier. Only 3 games against the current top 10, average league position of the opposition was 13th, but we did what we've never done before and got results from those easy games. 19 points from that was brilliant.

 

The 9 games in November/December was a harder test, some harder teams, average position of 9th. 8 points from those games is not good enough considering 5 of the teams are lower than us (between 9th and 18th).

 

We earned the points early in the season so we could afford to drop them more recently, we've played every team and have our current position on merit.

 

My view is the more recent form, with injuries and suspensions, is a better indicator of how the second half of the season will go than that initial run when we had a first 11 that didn't need to change at all. I'll be astounded if we manage to get 30 points out of 57 again....but I was astounded when we did it earlier, so fingers crossed.

Edited January 10, 2012 by Happy Face

[jaythesouthernmag 0]

a couple of teams will catch NUFC before now and the end of the season. Not sure who, Stoke maybe, but we haven't got a cat in hells chance of qualifying for europe through the league position, especially when another player is sold and the money is pocketed.

 

Will Alan Pardew be tempted to join another club, that backs their manager, soon ?

[ChezGiven 0]

Well if that's the case then obviously the 'easy start' stuff gets put into perspective too as that becomes 'representative' also when you take half the seasons fixtures as the sample. Doesn't really bother me either way tbh, I just think most people have a very realistic critical view of things (with some disparity of emotional responses, given natural optimism/pessimism) but sadly the debate always seems to get hijacked by the very few lunatics at either end of the spectrum who insist on misrepresenting those very reasonable views.

 

As is generally the case with the more reasonable posters i'm not even sure what the argument is here. I think we agree broadly, and semantics is the only issue.

 

The first 9 games were easier. Only 3 games against the current top 10, average league position of the opposition was 13th, but we did what we've never done before and got results from those easy games. 19 points from that was brilliant.

 

The 9 games in November/December was a harder test, some harder teams, average position of 9th. 8 points from those games is not good enough considering 5 of the teams are lower than us (between 9th and 18th).

 

We earned the points early in the season so we could afford to drop them more recently, we've played every team and have our current position on merit.

 

My view is the more recent form, with injuries and suspensions, is a better indicator of how the second half of the season will go than that initial run when we had a first 11 that didn't need to change at all. I'll be astounded if we manage to get 30 points out of 57 again....but I was astounded when we did it earlier, so fingers crossed.

Is it recent form for everyone or just us? Does City's poor run of results predict their second half of the season. In fact, lets look at the recent runs of the top 4.

 

City won 2 of last 5 and have lost at home for the first time in ages against a side we tanked and they lost to the mackems. Thats them fucked on your logic.

 

Man U have won 3 of their last 5 but lost to shitty Blackburn and a side you contend is not as good as they appear, i.e. us. Poor them.

 

Spurs are unbeaten in 5 but dropped points against Swansea, which seems to have a huge weighting in your system, lets hope its just your system for their sake.

 

Chelsea have 1 league win in 5 games which is fairly shit, especially when you see they dropped points at Wigan and Fulham and lost to Villa, all weighted highly by your predictions for the second half of the season.

 

The nature of 'form' means predictions / assessments of how games should / should have gone are not 'independent'. Otherwise Chelsea never drop points against Wigan. The only thing that matters is the total run of form over the season and using 3 games where we picked up 1 point against supposedly poor sides (one of which drew with City the next match) to make predictions is as daft as using the Man U result. I know you are meant to be using 9 games but in reality its only those 3 games that have gone against expectations.

[Happy Face 29]

Well if that's the case then obviously the 'easy start' stuff gets put into perspective too as that becomes 'representative' also when you take half the seasons fixtures as the sample. Doesn't really bother me either way tbh, I just think most people have a very realistic critical view of things (with some disparity of emotional responses, given natural optimism/pessimism) but sadly the debate always seems to get hijacked by the very few lunatics at either end of the spectrum who insist on misrepresenting those very reasonable views.

 

As is generally the case with the more reasonable posters i'm not even sure what the argument is here. I think we agree broadly, and semantics is the only issue.

 

The first 9 games were easier. Only 3 games against the current top 10, average league position of the opposition was 13th, but we did what we've never done before and got results from those easy games. 19 points from that was brilliant.

 

The 9 games in November/December was a harder test, some harder teams, average position of 9th. 8 points from those games is not good enough considering 5 of the teams are lower than us (between 9th and 18th).

 

We earned the points early in the season so we could afford to drop them more recently, we've played every team and have our current position on merit.

 

My view is the more recent form, with injuries and suspensions, is a better indicator of how the second half of the season will go than that initial run when we had a first 11 that didn't need to change at all. I'll be astounded if we manage to get 30 points out of 57 again....but I was astounded when we did it earlier, so fingers crossed.

Is it recent form for everyone or just us? Does City's poor run of results predict their second half of the season. In fact, lets look at the recent runs of the top 4.

 

City won 2 of last 5 and have lost at home for the first time in ages against a side we tanked and they lost to the mackems. Thats them fucked on your logic.

 

Man U have won 3 of their last 5 but lost to shitty Blackburn and a side you contend is not as good as they appear, i.e. us. Poor them.

 

Spurs are unbeaten in 5 but dropped points against Swansea, which seems to have a huge weighting in your system, lets hope its just your system for their sake.

 

Chelsea have 1 league win in 5 games which is fairly shit, especially when you see they dropped points at Wigan and Fulham and lost to Villa, all weighted highly by your predictions for the second half of the season.

 

The nature of 'form' means predictions / assessments of how games should / should have gone are not 'independent'. Otherwise Chelsea never drop points against Wigan. The only thing that matters is the total run of form over the season and using 3 games where we picked up 1 point against supposedly poor sides (one of which drew with City the next match) to make predictions is as daft as using the Man U result. I know you are meant to be using 9 games but in reality its only those 3 games that have gone against expectations.

 

But you know that's not what I've done, nowhere have I mentioned 3 games here or 4 there. I've used 2 months which is half the season gone.

 

Do a custom table on November Decembers results.

 

http://www.statto.com/football/stats/england/premier-league/2011-2012/custom-table

 

The table hardly changes, no clubs move more than a few positions, apart from us dropping from 7th to 18th....

 

1 Manchester United

2 Tottenham Hotspur

3 Arsenal

4 Manchester City

5 Liverpool

6 Chelsea

7 Stoke City

8 Everton

9 West Bromwich Albion

10 Aston Villa

11 Fulham

12 Wigan Athletic

13 Sunderland

14 Norwich City

15 Wolverhampton Wndrs

16 Swansea City

17 Blackburn Rovers

18 Newcastle Unite

19 Bolton Wanderers

20 Queens Park Rangers

[ChezGiven 0]

a couple of teams will catch NUFC before now and the end of the season. Not sure who, Stoke maybe, but we haven't got a cat in hells chance of qualifying for europe through the league position, especially when another player is sold and the money is pocketed.

 

Will Alan Pardew be tempted to join another club, that backs their manager, soon ?

Howay man. We've had a poor run and 7th isn't exactly nailed on (nor does it guarantee Europe at this stage) but to say we haven't got a cat in hell's chance on one hand then to struggle to name more than one team below us who might finish above us hardly makes sense. Btw, isn't Stoke Baggio's local team?

 

we haven't. Looking at our squad - and the transfer policy, lets face it most of us are wondering who will be next to leave and see the money disappear - and since August it's been obvious it isn't good enough to attain a high enough league position over 38 games to qualify for europe.

 

Some may have been fooled by a decent start, against generally the poorer teams, and a more athletic midfield [which I predicted would probably happen when Nolan was sold] but not everyone is so gullible.

 

The judgement may be harsh, but I'm sticking by it, as well as my long term view - as usual.

There were only 2 or 3 knobheads on here saying Nolan going made sense and it would improve our midfield. This point of view got me the tag Ashley apologist and was generally looked down upon by all. I think it was me, CT and 2J who argued that Nolan going was a good thing, whoever it was, it was a minority and i dont remember you being in it.

 

I am a 'told you so' sort of person too but i'm also a stickler for the details. You and everyone else thought selling Nolan meant we were selling club and it showed our lack of ambition. This latter point may or may not be true but firstly Nolan going is not evidence for it and secondly neither were you positive about him leaving.

[ChezGiven 0]

Well if that's the case then obviously the 'easy start' stuff gets put into perspective too as that becomes 'representative' also when you take half the seasons fixtures as the sample. Doesn't really bother me either way tbh, I just think most people have a very realistic critical view of things (with some disparity of emotional responses, given natural optimism/pessimism) but sadly the debate always seems to get hijacked by the very few lunatics at either end of the spectrum who insist on misrepresenting those very reasonable views.

 

As is generally the case with the more reasonable posters i'm not even sure what the argument is here. I think we agree broadly, and semantics is the only issue.

 

The first 9 games were easier. Only 3 games against the current top 10, average league position of the opposition was 13th, but we did what we've never done before and got results from those easy games. 19 points from that was brilliant.

 

The 9 games in November/December was a harder test, some harder teams, average position of 9th. 8 points from those games is not good enough considering 5 of the teams are lower than us (between 9th and 18th).

 

We earned the points early in the season so we could afford to drop them more recently, we've played every team and have our current position on merit.

 

My view is the more recent form, with injuries and suspensions, is a better indicator of how the second half of the season will go than that initial run when we had a first 11 that didn't need to change at all. I'll be astounded if we manage to get 30 points out of 57 again....but I was astounded when we did it earlier, so fingers crossed.

Is it recent form for everyone or just us? Does City's poor run of results predict their second half of the season. In fact, lets look at the recent runs of the top 4.

 

City won 2 of last 5 and have lost at home for the first time in ages against a side we tanked and they lost to the mackems. Thats them fucked on your logic.

 

Man U have won 3 of their last 5 but lost to shitty Blackburn and a side you contend is not as good as they appear, i.e. us. Poor them.

 

Spurs are unbeaten in 5 but dropped points against Swansea, which seems to have a huge weighting in your system, lets hope its just your system for their sake.

 

Chelsea have 1 league win in 5 games which is fairly shit, especially when you see they dropped points at Wigan and Fulham and lost to Villa, all weighted highly by your predictions for the second half of the season.

 

The nature of 'form' means predictions / assessments of how games should / should have gone are not 'independent'. Otherwise Chelsea never drop points against Wigan. The only thing that matters is the total run of form over the season and using 3 games where we picked up 1 point against supposedly poor sides (one of which drew with City the next match) to make predictions is as daft as using the Man U result. I know you are meant to be using 9 games but in reality its only those 3 games that have gone against expectations.

 

But you know that's not what I've done, nowhere have I mentioned 3 games here or 4 there. I've used 2 months which is half the season gone.

 

Do a custom table on November Decembers results.

 

http://www.statto.co...12/custom-table

 

The table hardly changes, no clubs move more than a few positions, apart from us dropping from 7th to 18th....

 

1 Manchester United

2 Tottenham Hotspur

3 Arsenal

4 Manchester City

5 Liverpool

6 Chelsea

7 Stoke City

8 Everton

9 West Bromwich Albion

10 Aston Villa

11 Fulham

12 Wigan Athletic

13 Sunderland

14 Norwich City

15 Wolverhampton Wndrs

16 Swansea City

17 Blackburn Rovers

18 Newcastle Unite

19 Bolton Wanderers

20 Queens Park Rangers

That doesnt address my point which is that table is meaningless. Posting the table of meaninglessness to counteract my point that it meaningless is pointless.

[Guest alex]

a couple of teams will catch NUFC before now and the end of the season. Not sure who, Stoke maybe, but we haven't got a cat in hells chance of qualifying for europe through the league position, especially when another player is sold and the money is pocketed.

 

Will Alan Pardew be tempted to join another club, that backs their manager, soon ?

Howay man. We've had a poor run and 7th isn't exactly nailed on (nor does it guarantee Europe at this stage) but to say we haven't got a cat in hell's chance on one hand then to struggle to name more than one team below us who might finish above us hardly makes sense. Btw, isn't Stoke Baggio's local team?

 

we haven't. Looking at our squad - and the transfer policy, lets face it most of us are wondering who will be next to leave and see the money disappear - and since August it's been obvious it isn't good enough to attain a high enough league position over 38 games to qualify for europe.

 

Some may have been fooled by a decent start, against generally the poorer teams, and a more athletic midfield [which I predicted would probably happen when Nolan was sold] but not everyone is so gullible.

 

The judgement may be harsh, but I'm sticking by it, as well as my long term view - as usual.

There were only 2 or 3 knobheads on here saying Nolan going made sense and it would improve our midfield. This point of view got me the tag Ashley apologist and was generally looked down upon by all. I think it was me, CT and 2J who argued that Nolan going was a good thing, whoever it was, it was a minority and i dont remember you being in it.

 

I am a 'told you so' sort of person too but i'm also a stickler for the details. You and everyone else thought selling Nolan meant we were selling club and it showed our lack of ambition. This latter point may or may not be true but firstly Nolan going is not evidence for it and secondly neither were you positive about him leaving.

I was quite happy Nolan went btw. Ask either 2J or sweetleftpeg. Not sure about Leazes though

[ChezGiven 0]

a couple of teams will catch NUFC before now and the end of the season. Not sure who, Stoke maybe, but we haven't got a cat in hells chance of qualifying for europe through the league position, especially when another player is sold and the money is pocketed.

 

Will Alan Pardew be tempted to join another club, that backs their manager, soon ?

Howay man. We've had a poor run and 7th isn't exactly nailed on (nor does it guarantee Europe at this stage) but to say we haven't got a cat in hell's chance on one hand then to struggle to name more than one team below us who might finish above us hardly makes sense. Btw, isn't Stoke Baggio's local team?

 

we haven't. Looking at our squad - and the transfer policy, lets face it most of us are wondering who will be next to leave and see the money disappear - and since August it's been obvious it isn't good enough to attain a high enough league position over 38 games to qualify for europe.

 

Some may have been fooled by a decent start, against generally the poorer teams, and a more athletic midfield [which I predicted would probably happen when Nolan was sold] but not everyone is so gullible.

 

The judgement may be harsh, but I'm sticking by it, as well as my long term view - as usual.

There were only 2 or 3 knobheads on here saying Nolan going made sense and it would improve our midfield. This point of view got me the tag Ashley apologist and was generally looked down upon by all. I think it was me, CT and 2J who argued that Nolan going was a good thing, whoever it was, it was a minority and i dont remember you being in it.

 

I am a 'told you so' sort of person too but i'm also a stickler for the details. You and everyone else thought selling Nolan meant we were selling club and it showed our lack of ambition. This latter point may or may not be true but firstly Nolan going is not evidence for it and secondly neither were you positive about him leaving.

I was quite happy Nolan went btw. Ask either 2J or sweetleftpeg. Not sure about Leazes though

Happy to hoy you in with the knobheads.

[Guest alex]

a couple of teams will catch NUFC before now and the end of the season. Not sure who, Stoke maybe, but we haven't got a cat in hells chance of qualifying for europe through the league position, especially when another player is sold and the money is pocketed.

 

Will Alan Pardew be tempted to join another club, that backs their manager, soon ?

Howay man. We've had a poor run and 7th isn't exactly nailed on (nor does it guarantee Europe at this stage) but to say we haven't got a cat in hell's chance on one hand then to struggle to name more than one team below us who might finish above us hardly makes sense. Btw, isn't Stoke Baggio's local team?

 

we haven't. Looking at our squad - and the transfer policy, lets face it most of us are wondering who will be next to leave and see the money disappear - and since August it's been obvious it isn't good enough to attain a high enough league position over 38 games to qualify for europe.

 

Some may have been fooled by a decent start, against generally the poorer teams, and a more athletic midfield [which I predicted would probably happen when Nolan was sold] but not everyone is so gullible.

 

The judgement may be harsh, but I'm sticking by it, as well as my long term view - as usual.

There were only 2 or 3 knobheads on here saying Nolan going made sense and it would improve our midfield. This point of view got me the tag Ashley apologist and was generally looked down upon by all. I think it was me, CT and 2J who argued that Nolan going was a good thing, whoever it was, it was a minority and i dont remember you being in it.

 

I am a 'told you so' sort of person too but i'm also a stickler for the details. You and everyone else thought selling Nolan meant we were selling club and it showed our lack of ambition. This latter point may or may not be true but firstly Nolan going is not evidence for it and secondly neither were you positive about him leaving.

I was quite happy Nolan went btw. Ask either 2J or sweetleftpeg. Not sure about Leazes though

Happy to hoy you in with the knobheads.

Well, if the penis-shaped cap fits...

[Happy Face 29]

That doesnt address my point which is that table is meaningless. Posting the table of meaninglessness to counteract my point that it meaningless is pointless.

 

As the fixtures worked out, we were 3rd or so after 10 and 11 games and you were having a pop at me for saying it was an easy start.

 

If the fixtures had come out with the games played in November/December being played at the start, in late August to October, then we'd have been 18th when you were making that argument. Would you have been confident of the European push under those circumstances?

 

The latter run of fixtures is every bit as informative about our ability as the former. I say moreso, unless we add a few more players before the window closes.

Edited January 10, 2012 by Happy Face

[ChezGiven 0]

That doesnt address my point which is that table is meaningless. Posting the table of meaninglessness to counteract my point that it meaningless is pointless.

 

As the fixtures worked out, we were 3rd or so after 10 and 11 games and you were having a pop at me for saying it was an easy start.

 

If the fixtures had come out with the games played in November/December being played at the start, in late August to October, then we'd have been 18th when you were making that argument. Would you have been confident of the European push under those circumstances?

 

The latter run of fixtures is every bit as informative about our ability as the former. I say moreso, unless we add a few more players before the window closes.

I'm not arguing that we are going to push on for Europe and i dont get or care for your hypothetical point. i'm arguing against using arbitrary samples of matches to predict the future. As you know stats, you'll know that form and injuries creates a dependency on the outcomes of events, with previous events affecting future probabilities. This form effect creates mini-pathways and trends in events across time but the only important one is the long-term one that stretches from match 1 to match 38. Now nothing is certain and those trends can be mis-leading which is why judgement is important. My judgement that 3 wins out of 4 and 60 minutes of the Liverpool match where i thought we were shading the game means we have the resilience and quality in the side to maintain the new trend. I agree completely that Ba / Tiote's absence and no new players (or some leaving) would massively call this into question. I just dont get the emphasis on what is essentially 6 games in your 9 where we pick up 2 points (3 where we werent expected to pick up anything and 3 when we didnt pick up anything where expected for the ONLY TIME THIS SEASON). In the other 3 of your 9 we do as expected.

[LeazesMag 0]

a couple of teams will catch NUFC before now and the end of the season. Not sure who, Stoke maybe, but we haven't got a cat in hells chance of qualifying for europe through the league position, especially when another player is sold and the money is pocketed.

 

Will Alan Pardew be tempted to join another club, that backs their manager, soon ?

 

is that your expert view ?

[LeazesMag 0]

a couple of teams will catch NUFC before now and the end of the season. Not sure who, Stoke maybe, but we haven't got a cat in hells chance of qualifying for europe through the league position, especially when another player is sold and the money is pocketed.

 

Will Alan Pardew be tempted to join another club, that backs their manager, soon ?

Howay man. We've had a poor run and 7th isn't exactly nailed on (nor does it guarantee Europe at this stage) but to say we haven't got a cat in hell's chance on one hand then to struggle to name more than one team below us who might finish above us hardly makes sense. Btw, isn't Stoke Baggio's local team?

 

we haven't. Looking at our squad - and the transfer policy, lets face it most of us are wondering who will be next to leave and see the money disappear - and since August it's been obvious it isn't good enough to attain a high enough league position over 38 games to qualify for europe.

 

Some may have been fooled by a decent start, against generally the poorer teams, and a more athletic midfield [which I predicted would probably happen when Nolan was sold] but not everyone is so gullible.

 

The judgement may be harsh, but I'm sticking by it, as well as my long term view - as usual.

There were only 2 or 3 knobheads on here saying Nolan going made sense and it would improve our midfield. This point of view got me the tag Ashley apologist and was generally looked down upon by all. I think it was me, CT and 2J who argued that Nolan going was a good thing, whoever it was, it was a minority and i dont remember you being in it.

 

I am a 'told you so' sort of person too but i'm also a stickler for the details. You and everyone else thought selling Nolan meant we were selling club and it showed our lack of ambition. This latter point may or may not be true but firstly Nolan going is not evidence for it and secondly neither were you positive about him leaving.

 

I didn't think the single sale of Nolan meant we were a selling club at all, I am saying 100% that the sales of Carroll, Enrique, Nolan and the pocketing of the cash - and other players previous to that too - rather than building on a good core of players, which is what a big club ought to do never mind an ambitious club, meant we were a selling club. In fact, I've been saying Mike Ashley was taking us back to being a selling club for years, and was roundly disagreed with by the vast majority, this is the reason I was banned on NO, because I said it and stuck to my guns. I did this not out of being stubborn and "wanting to be right", but because I knew 100% that I was correct, and still am.

 

I've outlined all the reasons over the years why I think the club has gone backwards, and the reasons for the current "upper blip", which is all it is, unfortunately.

 

I think the sale of Nolan is neither here nor there, as a single sale, you could make a case for keeping him and make a case for selling him for the fee before he got older and his contract ran out, as he still had 2 years to go. If it was the decision of the manager, then I would back that particular decision and the backing of him whatever I personally thought of him as a player. It isn't about what you or me or anybody else thinks of players, it is what the manager thinks and what the manager wants.

 

If you don't believe we are a selling club because I'm telling you, then believe it because Kevin Keegan says it.

 

 

So at the end of the day, the manager has not been backed by the money from these sales, and he is being expected to operate like managers of small time clubs. This is the reason he will go to a big club that backs their managers if he continues to do a good job under these circumstances, then you will see Ashley's setup for what it really is. A selling club, like the small clubs. Either that or he will be sacked for not getting into europe despite being forced to operate like a selling club. I've also said this numerous times, and I'm sticking by it just like I've stuck to everything else over the years.

 

These sort of judgements are crystal clear when you have seen it all before.

Edited January 10, 2012 by LeazesMag

[Christmas Tree 4003]

So Pardew will either walk or get sacked at some point and however good we do, you will always say......aha, but this is as good as it gets.

 

Cant you just appreciate that some people just enjoy the thrills and spills of a season without needing to be brought down to gloom land.

[Happy Face 29]

That doesnt address my point which is that table is meaningless. Posting the table of meaninglessness to counteract my point that it meaningless is pointless.

 

As the fixtures worked out, we were 3rd or so after 10 and 11 games and you were having a pop at me for saying it was an easy start.

 

If the fixtures had come out with the games played in November/December being played at the start, in late August to October, then we'd have been 18th when you were making that argument. Would you have been confident of the European push under those circumstances?

 

The latter run of fixtures is every bit as informative about our ability as the former. I say moreso, unless we add a few more players before the window closes.

I'm not arguing that we are going to push on for Europe and i dont get or care for your hypothetical point. i'm arguing against using arbitrary samples of matches to predict the future. As you know stats, you'll know that form and injuries creates a dependency on the outcomes of events, with previous events affecting future probabilities. This form effect creates mini-pathways and trends in events across time but the only important one is the long-term one that stretches from match 1 to match 38. Now nothing is certain and those trends can be mis-leading which is why judgement is important. My judgement that 3 wins out of 4 and 60 minutes of the Liverpool match where i thought we were shading the game means we have the resilience and quality in the side to maintain the new trend. I agree completely that Ba / Tiote's absence and no new players (or some leaving) would massively call this into question. I just dont get the emphasis on what is essentially 6 games in your 9 where we pick up 2 points (3 where we werent expected to pick up anything and 3 when we didnt pick up anything where expected for the ONLY TIME THIS SEASON). In the other 3 of your 9 we do as expected.

 

It's all judgement, but my mini pathway is longer than yours.

 

Not a euphemism.

[ChezGiven 0]

He makes some good points and am glad to see people discounting Nolan's sale from their overall view. Its important to remove Nolan from the debate, see Cabaye & Tiote in the middle against Man U and be happy. We can (for a multitude of reasons) remove Barton from the debate. Which leaves us quite rightly with Enrique and Carroll, the sales of whom support (not prove) what LM says. Its always been my view it doesnt prove it and to be fair to LM he says its his prediction, which he is entitled to.

[Christmas Tree 4003]

He makes some good points and am glad to see people discounting Nolan's sale from their overall view. Its important to remove Nolan from the debate, see Cabaye & Tiote in the middle against Man U and be happy. We can (for a multitude of reasons) remove Barton from the debate. Which leaves us quite rightly with Enrique and Carroll, the sales of whom support (not prove) what LM says. Its always been my view it doesnt prove it and to be fair to LM he says its his prediction, which he is entitled to.

 

Im not sure how the Carrol sale supports his view that we are a selling club yet his standard bearer club can sell Torres to Chelsea and not be a selling club.

 

Im also not sure why Im getting back on this roundabout so I'll quickly get off.

[LeazesMag 0]

So Pardew will either walk or get sacked at some point and however good we do, you will always say......aha, but this is as good as it gets.

 

Cant you just appreciate that some people just enjoy the thrills and spills of a season without needing to be brought down to gloom land.

 

you should have said that to the people who moaned on when we WERE keeping our best players, backing managers and playing in europe. Like Gloomy for instance.

[ChezGiven 0]

That doesnt address my point which is that table is meaningless. Posting the table of meaninglessness to counteract my point that it meaningless is pointless.

 

As the fixtures worked out, we were 3rd or so after 10 and 11 games and you were having a pop at me for saying it was an easy start.

 

If the fixtures had come out with the games played in November/December being played at the start, in late August to October, then we'd have been 18th when you were making that argument. Would you have been confident of the European push under those circumstances?

 

The latter run of fixtures is every bit as informative about our ability as the former. I say moreso, unless we add a few more players before the window closes.

I'm not arguing that we are going to push on for Europe and i dont get or care for your hypothetical point. i'm arguing against using arbitrary samples of matches to predict the future. As you know stats, you'll know that form and injuries creates a dependency on the outcomes of events, with previous events affecting future probabilities. This form effect creates mini-pathways and trends in events across time but the only important one is the long-term one that stretches from match 1 to match 38. Now nothing is certain and those trends can be mis-leading which is why judgement is important. My judgement that 3 wins out of 4 and 60 minutes of the Liverpool match where i thought we were shading the game means we have the resilience and quality in the side to maintain the new trend. I agree completely that Ba / Tiote's absence and no new players (or some leaving) would massively call this into question. I just dont get the emphasis on what is essentially 6 games in your 9 where we pick up 2 points (3 where we werent expected to pick up anything and 3 when we didnt pick up anything where expected for the ONLY TIME THIS SEASON). In the other 3 of your 9 we do as expected.

 

It's all judgement, but my mini pathway is longer than yours.

 

Not a euphemism.

Its all about the point of inflection, that one result which sends you on a new trajectory of form. For Sunderland, their defeat to us was meant to have been that sort of result. I think the Bolton game was an inflection point after our poor run of form, even though the Liverpool game was a disappointment.

 

A previous point where our form changes was the away defeat at City, an inevitable result but predictive of the next 6 games unfortunately. Its all swings and roundabouts.

[LeazesMag 0]

He makes some good points and am glad to see people discounting Nolan's sale from their overall view. Its important to remove Nolan from the debate, see Cabaye & Tiote in the middle against Man U and be happy. We can (for a multitude of reasons) remove Barton from the debate. Which leaves us quite rightly with Enrique and Carroll, the sales of whom support (not prove) what LM says. Its always been my view it doesnt prove it and to be fair to LM he says its his prediction, which he is entitled to.

 

Im not sure how the Carrol sale supports his view that we are a selling club yet his standard bearer club can sell Torres to Chelsea and not be a selling club.

 

 

eerrr........because they backed their manager rather than pocket the cash ? Sorry if that's a bit too obvious CT.

[Guest alex]

He makes some good points and am glad to see people discounting Nolan's sale from their overall view. Its important to remove Nolan from the debate, see Cabaye & Tiote in the middle against Man U and be happy. We can (for a multitude of reasons) remove Barton from the debate. Which leaves us quite rightly with Enrique and Carroll, the sales of whom support (not prove) what LM says. Its always been my view it doesnt prove it and to be fair to LM he says its his prediction, which he is entitled to.

 

Im not sure how the Carrol sale supports his view that we are a selling club yet his standard bearer club can sell Torres to Chelsea and not be a selling club.

 

Im also not sure why Im getting back on this roundabout so I'll quickly get off.

I suppose LFC spent all the Torres money (plus more) and they let the manager decide who comes and goes. Not sure I'd trust Dalglish on that score like.

[Happy Face 29]

That doesnt address my point which is that table is meaningless. Posting the table of meaninglessness to counteract my point that it meaningless is pointless.

 

As the fixtures worked out, we were 3rd or so after 10 and 11 games and you were having a pop at me for saying it was an easy start.

 

If the fixtures had come out with the games played in November/December being played at the start, in late August to October, then we'd have been 18th when you were making that argument. Would you have been confident of the European push under those circumstances?

 

The latter run of fixtures is every bit as informative about our ability as the former. I say moreso, unless we add a few more players before the window closes.

I'm not arguing that we are going to push on for Europe and i dont get or care for your hypothetical point. i'm arguing against using arbitrary samples of matches to predict the future. As you know stats, you'll know that form and injuries creates a dependency on the outcomes of events, with previous events affecting future probabilities. This form effect creates mini-pathways and trends in events across time but the only important one is the long-term one that stretches from match 1 to match 38. Now nothing is certain and those trends can be mis-leading which is why judgement is important. My judgement that 3 wins out of 4 and 60 minutes of the Liverpool match where i thought we were shading the game means we have the resilience and quality in the side to maintain the new trend. I agree completely that Ba / Tiote's absence and no new players (or some leaving) would massively call this into question. I just dont get the emphasis on what is essentially 6 games in your 9 where we pick up 2 points (3 where we werent expected to pick up anything and 3 when we didnt pick up anything where expected for the ONLY TIME THIS SEASON). In the other 3 of your 9 we do as expected.

 

It's all judgement, but my mini pathway is longer than yours.

 

Not a euphemism.

Its all about the point of inflection, that one result which sends you on a new trajectory of form. For Sunderland, their defeat to us was meant to have been that sort of result. I think the Bolton game was an inflection point after our poor run of form, even though the Liverpool game was a disappointment.

 

A previous point where our form changes was the away defeat at City, an inevitable result but predictive of the next 6 games unfortunately. Its all swings and roundabouts.

 

The next 3 games will be a good barometer of that.

[Christmas Tree 4003]

He makes some good points and am glad to see people discounting Nolan's sale from their overall view. Its important to remove Nolan from the debate, see Cabaye & Tiote in the middle against Man U and be happy. We can (for a multitude of reasons) remove Barton from the debate. Which leaves us quite rightly with Enrique and Carroll, the sales of whom support (not prove) what LM says. Its always been my view it doesnt prove it and to be fair to LM he says its his prediction, which he is entitled to.

 

Im not sure how the Carrol sale supports his view that we are a selling club yet his standard bearer club can sell Torres to Chelsea and not be a selling club.

 

Im also not sure why Im getting back on this roundabout so I'll quickly get off.

I suppose LFC spent all the Torres money (plus more) and they let the manager decide who comes and goes. Not sure I'd trust Dalglish on that score like.

 

Yup. They let the mad man waste millions while our money is sitting somewhere within "the club".

 

A year down the line one point separates us and our goalscorer is scoring for fun while there 35 million man struggles to get a game.

 

As we used to do that its easy to see why it appeals but that doesnt mean its the right course of action.

[LeazesMag 0]

He makes some good points and am glad to see people discounting Nolan's sale from their overall view. Its important to remove Nolan from the debate, see Cabaye & Tiote in the middle against Man U and be happy. We can (for a multitude of reasons) remove Barton from the debate. Which leaves us quite rightly with Enrique and Carroll, the sales of whom support (not prove) what LM says. Its always been my view it doesnt prove it and to be fair to LM he says its his prediction, which he is entitled to.

 

Im not sure how the Carrol sale supports his view that we are a selling club yet his standard bearer club can sell Torres to Chelsea and not be a selling club.

 

Im also not sure why Im getting back on this roundabout so I'll quickly get off.

I suppose LFC spent all the Torres money (plus more) and they let the manager decide who comes and goes. Not sure I'd trust Dalglish on that score like.

 

bingo. Did CT really need that spelled out for him

[LeazesMag 0]

He makes some good points and am glad to see people discounting Nolan's sale from their overall view. Its important to remove Nolan from the debate, see Cabaye & Tiote in the middle against Man U and be happy. We can (for a multitude of reasons) remove Barton from the debate. Which leaves us quite rightly with Enrique and Carroll, the sales of whom support (not prove) what LM says. Its always been my view it doesnt prove it and to be fair to LM he says its his prediction, which he is entitled to.

 

Im not sure how the Carrol sale supports his view that we are a selling club yet his standard bearer club can sell Torres to Chelsea and not be a selling club.

 

Im also not sure why Im getting back on this roundabout so I'll quickly get off.

I suppose LFC spent all the Torres money (plus more) and they let the manager decide who comes and goes. Not sure I'd trust Dalglish on that score like.

 

Yup. They let the mad man waste millions while our money is sitting somewhere within "the club".

 

A year down the line one point separates us and our goalscorer is scoring for fun while there 35 million man struggles to get a game.

 

As we used to do that its easy to see why it appeals but that doesnt mean its the right course of action.

 

and Liverpool have been doing it all wrong for 40 years ? Sigh. Are you advocating not backing managers as the way to succeed in football ?