Christmas Tree

Xmas possibly - new year with 20% VAT no chance. Sounds bad when you say it like that but as with all taxes they soon become the norm. First of all, most shops will try and boost / keep the sales going with offers like "we'll pay the vat increase" etc. Secondly, an extra 2.5% on the cost of say a new Smartphone is not going to put someone off buying it. If you are going to spend £450 on a new product, suddenly having to pay an extra £11.25p will not be a dealbreaker imo.

Yes......It it gets really bad the army usually take over in the Green Godesses. On this occasion the firemen who refuse to strike are manning some of the engines but as during the miners strike there is also sort of shit kicking off allegedly.

Sand Dancer not a geordie But still only half a mile from the tyne (Closer to the tyne than most parts of Newcastle I think )

I still dont understand your thrust here. The government and their independant advisors have models that predict a rise after a recession. Im sure they take into account lags etc and yet still believe their models to be right. Was it not the norm in the 80's and 90's to come out of recession, followed by private sector growth Are we getting hung up on headline figures of 19% cuts when in truth this is actually 4.9% cut for the first year and so on. It may be the economy does grow as expected or better and the whole thing gets even better. The bottom line however in all of this is that there is more than one train of thought out there and you know fine well that this is an argument that cant be won in advance. Brown was clearly using a different model to Cameron, thats for sure. We did come out of recession in the 80s and 90s but Japan didnt. One therefore doesnt follow the other. The basic answer is 'Not everyone is using the same models'. The enormously boring answer is: There are 2 broad schools, neoclassical (Real Business Cycle Models) favoured by amongst other the godfather of monetarism, Milton Friedman. It argues against any form of fiscal policy (as Matt just mentioned due to crowding out) and in its purest form rejects the role of governments in economic policy. Eyebrows should be raised there. These models all do the same thing, how will firms, household, banks and everyone else react to a change in economic conditions brought about by shocks or policy? The predicted changes in behaviour of individuals, predicts how good or bad the change is for the economy. You need to know where you are today (problematic when data is lagged) and find an equivalent situation in history to give you data to feed your predictions. So in essence they are based on how we all act with the model required to make an assumption about our behaviour. This assumptions is called 'rationality' so everyone acts in exactly the right way to ensure the outcome of his action is the best for him. Sound stupid? It gets better, the classical approach also assumes that a very special thing called an 'economic equilibrium' (everyone is as happy as possible) not only exists but is the norm. The supporters of this model have strongly argued for decades that government spending only has limited positives and should not be used as a tool in the economy. Then there are Neo-Keynesian models that still assume people are rational but that markets are not perfect, failures exist and in particular things like prices and wages are sticky or inflexible in the short-term. This makes much more sense to anyone living in the real world. This school spends much more effort explaining individual behaviour and drives further into the psychology of people's actions (micro-economics) to show that, in contrast to the dominant thought (capitalism in its fairly pure form has really dominated for a while) that managing markets via government intervention was justifiable and a good thing. Now, the next distinction is between models used by banks and markets in practice that are simple to use but stunningly shit and a joke in the profession and new DSGE models. These new models are really complicated to populate with data but are much simpler in structure. The ECB have a Neo-Keynesian DSGE called the Smets-Wouter ( http://www.ecb.int/home/html/researcher_swm.en.html ) but is not been applied to individual countries. Its also been recently shown as a bit outdated (2003) and doesnt work in abnormal recessions (which we have because of the interest rates). In this case the Romer / Bernstein model is a better predictor. http://www.voxeu.org/index.php?q=node/4818 So its far from clear everyone is using the same model. The smaller banks and market tend to use the old defunct macro models that are still the most prevalent (even though academia has moved on from their earlier works). Then there are plenty of central banks using either RBC (classical) models, keynesian models, DSGE ones or none of the above. Finally we really dont know whether anyone reading the outputs has the first clue about the subject or is driving an agenda. What we do know that by using data from the Great Depression and running it through the latest predictive model that has been developed specifically to deal with the financial crisis says that spending now will move the economy onto a permanently higher level of GDP. Thats the Eggertsson paper i quoted, the lad from the NY federal reserve. You are right of course, this debate wont be resolved today. However, worth pointing out that retail sales in the UK have slumped in the last 2 months. There's that laggy data again http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/economi...n-spending.html Personally I think that was on the cards until the spending reveiw was announced and is also why I think we'll see a pre christmas and new year surge now.

The annoying thing is though that it wasnt banks lending to small businesses that got us into this mess. It was dodgy mortgage deals, mainly in the US. I think even Northern rocks problems were mainly with their US debt? Banks in this country have always made profits as part of normal business which included lending to risky small businesses. I can understand them pulling back from dodgy self cert mortgages etc but see no problem in small business lending as previously carried out. Seems daft.

Congrats. Take it she lives somewhere cold

I still dont understand your thrust here. The government and their independant advisors have models that predict a rise after a recession. Im sure they take into account lags etc and yet still believe their models to be right. Was it not the norm in the 80's and 90's to come out of recession, followed by private sector growth Are we getting hung up on headline figures of 19% cuts when in truth this is actually 4.9% cut for the first year and so on. It may be the economy does grow as expected or better and the whole thing gets even better. The bottom line however in all of this is that there is more than one train of thought out there and you know fine well that this is an argument that cant be won in advance. I think the point is "recessions are always followed by growth" is the kind of assumption which is more based on patchy history rather than any sound basis. You also have to consider the lack of bank lending as a huge obstacle to any growth. As we also keep saying the cuts will also lead to private job losses as those companies like EDS which service the public sector cut back. Totally agree thats this one point is the biggest make or break for this plan and would also concede that I have heard nothing new on this. For 3 years now politicians, starting with Brown, have banged on about the banks need to start lending yet nothing seems to get done. Dont know how they can persuade them but it needs a fix, now.

London firefighters to strike on Bonfire Night Unbelievable. Dont these idiots realise that they need to keep the public on side. Strike if their is no alternative but bot on Bonfire night.

I still dont understand your thrust here. The government and their independant advisors have models that predict a rise after a recession. Im sure they take into account lags etc and yet still believe their models to be right. Was it not the norm in the 80's and 90's to come out of recession, followed by private sector growth Are we getting hung up on headline figures of 19% cuts when in truth this is actually 4.9% cut for the first year and so on. It may be the economy does grow as expected or better and the whole thing gets even better. The bottom line however in all of this is that there is more than one train of thought out there and you know fine well that this is an argument that cant be won in advance.

Hopefully this run in the team lasts and he might improve a wee bit more. Needs to cut out the silly mistakes, he seems too relaxed at times. Maybe he is meditating too much. My thoughts exactly and I just hope he can get through the mackem game unscathed either from them or the ref. Think he'll be like a man posessed.

aye were so unpredictable at the moment, literally cant predict any of those games even the Arsenal one with their knack of self destruction at times who knows. This But this is the sort of up and down season we all expected until the initial few games got our blood racing. Happy to just keep picking points up at the minute.

Sure there was something on TV a while back about one of the 69 lot working in Fenwicks. Suppose its only a recent occurence finding it strange footballers not doing something normalish when they retire. When I was a teenager it seemed that every footballers nest egg was a pub somewhere. Alan Foggon? I think runs one in South Shields, Simonside arms. Geoff Hurst used to work for a furniture stain insurance company when I had dealings with.

Depends on how important the goal is, normally jump around like a lunatic if it's an important goal, and jump on the bloke next to me, wave to people I know in different parts of the ground, I nearly jumped off level 7 literally when we scored the third against Villa, and if it's a team I don't like I spend thirty seconds giving the opposition fans the v's rather childishly. Made me laugh. I do that but only against the mackems

See he doesnt really wind me up. I just find I skip past his posts. I dont find he really brings anything to any conversations. In many threads you will notice he posts the odd random thing trying to be funny / attract attention but more and more people (like me) just dont bother. He seems a bit desperate tbf. But, each to their own. If thats how he gets his kicks This.

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Cheers you lot, really made me chuckle. Some cracking one liners Cameron Winston Tebbit is doing fine...... He's obviously has Labour leanings as he soaked me from the scales. Didnt realise those little things were so powerful on young'uns having previously had three daughters. Changing the nappy is now quite a hazardous occurrence so any tips welcome. Have been told that Mr Winkle / Johnson etc has to be pointing down not up before the nappy is closed??? Just waiting for the trip to the Newcastle shop.

Going to be difficult to see how when 650k are to be added to the 2.47m already unemployed just through the Public sector cuts. Heres the forecast Pud http://budgetresponsibility.independent.go...asts_190810.pdf BTW Im not disagreeing its going to be difficult or that it WILL happen, only that the people with all the zillions of data forecast that it will. The bottom line is we will have to wait and see, however it does seem that there are still lots of levers left to pull and by all accounts it looks as though the boe is going to do even more quantitive easing next month Also bye the way, a little chappie arrived yesterday during the West ham Game weighing a wapping 9lb 4oz. Not sure whether he'll be Red or Blue but he will definitely be black and white

Its all summed up in these couple of sentences for me. You have proved time and again you haven't got a clue what you are talking about, but at least you are consistent - you believe the tories know what they are doing, and you are backing them up I don't mind a bit of blind political support, in my opinion you know what your basic principals are and you support the party that represents them. I'll be honest CT, I have a lot more respect for someone like you, who has picked a side and is sticking with it, than for people who don't vote or who are swayed by whoever is being supported by Murdoch at the time. I obviously think you are wrong, and disagree with pretty much everything you post, but I'll be honest its these floating voter wankers I cant stand Thanks for the compliment (I think ) The paragrapgh that you have highlighted that you say sums up that I havent got a clue confuses me. Those are all forecasts that are FACTS. I havent made them up, official Independant groups are forecasting them. I can appreciate anyone having a different leaning in politics and have no problem with that, but using that paragraph to say I have no clue seems strange.

Not that hard to grasp really. Where in a recession, in debt and interest rates cant be reduced any further to encourage consumer spending and the banks are reluctant to lend to small business looking to invest. But we're not any more What do you do? Stimulate the economy which will pay off the debt in the long term, or slash spending to gain a more favourable rate from the bond market to keep financing the debt anyway? Sounds great. What if the economy doesnt pick up, how long do you keep borrowing and stimulating all the time racking up not only the debt, but the hideous interest on that debt? The tory plan allows for business growth, less debt and far cheaper interest terms on that debt. The models used by Nobel prize winning economists suggest that the former is better. The IMF, CBI, OBCR, Markets etc etc disagree The proof will be in the pudding but if employment doesnt recover next year, then we could be looking at a situation similar to Japan in the 90s. How will we get the one million job losses back into work if the economy isnt growing? Answer is, with great difficulty. The facts are that the economy has been growing and every major forecaster is forcasting that this growth will continue. Employment is also rising and is also forecast to continue with a net reduction in unemoployment by the end of the parliament. You can quote this guy til your blue in the face but that doesnt mean you or he is right. His your doom and gloom scenario is not currently happening, the opposite is happening and forecast to continue. Its not a straightforward choice between policies and quite rightly, the public sector should reduce in size as the economy has shrunk. The private sector contracts with the economy naturally, the public sector isnt governed by market forces so someone needs to decide to reduce budgets, to employ less people etc. A degree of this is correct. What the Chinese do is to ensure money they are spending is done in a co-ordinated way as part of an economic plan, building roads and transport links between manufacturers who are hierarchically linked in specific markets, using regional development agencies to ensure favourable lending rates to high potential local firms with export potential. But again forecasts are for growth. And also again, the markets seem to back these predictions. The governor of the BoE was in Newcastle in 2009 when he announced £30m of money to One North East to subsidise a scheme for local manufacturing to establish networks in hierarchically linked companies in Europe. This was one of the first areas Cameron (a self-proclaimed one nation Tory) targeted for reduced spending. Its that lack of coherence in Tory thinking, coupled with the aggressiveness of their attack on our welfare state that concerns me the most. I think its quite clear that the Tories have a whole realm of policies relating to generating private growth and foreign investment. With regard to the welfare state, they are only doing what Labour should have done, wanted to do, but couldnt do because of infighting. (Source J.Powell & A. Darling this week). This has been gone over many times and its a no brainer because as you say, the proof is in the pudding and no one will be proved right or wrong for several years.

CT, you realise that this basically translates as "because Chez knows what he's talking about, and my learned-it-from-The-Sun patter is no match for someone with some actual knowledge." In other words, Papa L had it spot on. Ofcourse that's what it means bright lad Let's all discuss Chez's comments.... You first. I'm not the one claiming that the argument us littered with errors, our that I'm too tired to get into it, in lieu of just admitting that I don't have the first fucking clue what I'm talking about though. Which you finally seem to have admitted after 75 pages of bluster. Sums up your contribution so far, perfectly . Internet warrior mode tbf

Pointing out the non-truths wouild be a start. Its tempting but its like listening to talk sport when the Keegan crisis was going on. Sometimes its just not worth it. Like Polly Toynbee or the Mail its just preaching to the converted. (I might if Im bored during the night in ) Just say you can't answer it, you'll feel better when you are honest with yourself! And its noticeable you usually tend towards the "can't be bothered" excuse whenever Chez crops up here, maybe because he destroys you with ease and at will? It's also noticeable you don't read threads well or you would see I answered several hours before you posted this drivel. The reason FYI I don't argue much with Chez is that his arguments are usually at a very high economics theory level and I don't mind admitting it quite often sounds like gobbledegook. Now run along or post something worthwhile to the debate Tell you what, i will as soon as you manage to, but i won't hold my breath! Good to know i was right about you though, you won't take him on because he knows what he's talking about and is right and ending with a patronising insult shows you know i was right as well. An apology would have been fine. A bigger man and all that

Nice to have it laid out without all the spin.

You first. Basically means the price of eggs is set to double. Next.