Europe --- In or Out

[Renton 21032]

31 minutes ago, Christmas Tree said:

 

 See you in 3 years then.

 

As it happens I don’t expect the EU to “capitulate”, I expect a deal to be agreed in the next few weeks as it’s EVERYONES interests.

 

 

 

The WA needs to be settled in the next 2 months actually, so we'll see where we are after Christmas. Where did you get 3 years from? 

 

As for future trade deal, I predict the EU will not compromise their 4 freedoms. We'll either withdraw our red lines, or accept Canada with a permanent Irish backstop involving an Irish Sea backstop. Or no deal and catastrophe, followed by the above after much grovelling.  Can't tell which yet.

 

What's your prediction, so we can record it for posterity? 

[ewerk 30159]

It isn’t just the Irish thing though. It’s also the businesses that have been built on frictionless trade that isn’t possible under a straightforward free trade deal.

[Isegrim 9676]

3 hours ago, Christmas Tree said:

 

But we won’t be in the EU.

 

At essence we are arranging a free trade deal. The Irish border is the main thing making this less straightforward and it is therefor up to both sides to find a solution. (As is happening).

Exactly, the UK is leaving the EU. Therefore those are not just negotiations with a third country but with a current member. The EU can’t allow to set a dangerous precedent. Also all arrangements with close European countries who are not already members are constructed to focus on the integral freedoms of the Union with most of them having to accept them as well. Thinking that the Union will sacrifice them for a trade arrangement with the UK is wishful thinking. The UK is neither politically nor economically important enough to let this happen even though a lot of Brexiteers seem to think that the UK is the centre of the world.

[ewerk 30159]

Nonsense! It wasn’t for us you’d be speaking German.

[Christmas Tree 4669]

3 hours ago, Renton said:

 

The WA needs to be settled in the next 2 months actually, so we'll see where we are after Christmas. Where did you get 3 years from? 

 

As for future trade deal, I predict the EU will not compromise their 4 freedoms. We'll either withdraw our red lines, or accept Canada with a permanent Irish backstop involving an Irish Sea backstop. Or no deal and catastrophe, followed by the above after much grovelling.  Can't tell which yet.

 

What's your prediction, so we can record it for posterity? 

 

Well that self imposed exile went well   I’m glad your back, I was missing you   

 

My only real prediction is that we’ll do the withdrawal deal very soon and head off to the transition period for 2/3 years.

 

What happens then is finger in the air stuff really. May will have gone and it depends who replaces her. Personally I think the party will realise there’s more to life than Brexit and go with one of the younger generation. That person will rightly concentrate on domestic stuff with an eye on 2022 election.

 

Quietly behind the scenes the final deal will get done which will be as I said in 2016, some sort of bespoke associate arrangement that creates a U.K. wide custom union and a free trade deal. There’s lots of chatter about a new bespoke efta/eea pillar just for us but as the greatest legal Eu / U.K. minds are arguing about it on Twitter, I’ll refrain.

 

 

[Christmas Tree 4669]

1 hour ago, Isegrim said:

Exactly, the UK is leaving the EU. Therefore those are not just negotiations with a third country but with a current member. The EU can’t allow to set a dangerous precedent. Also all arrangements with close European countries who are not already members are constructed to focus on the integral freedoms of the Union with most of them having to accept them as well. Thinking that the Union will sacrifice them for a trade arrangement with the UK is wishful thinking. The UK is neither politically nor economically important enough to let this happen even though a lot of Brexiteers seem to think that the UK is the centre of the world.

 

This, however is a new situation for the EU, complicated by the EU land border which is why both sides are working towards a solution. 

[Isegrim 9676]

44 minutes ago, Christmas Tree said:

 

This, however is a new situation for the EU, complicated by the EU land border which is why both sides are working towards a solution. 

Of course it is a new situation and of course both sides are looking for a solution. That’s a totally meaningless statement.

 

The thing is that it’s more than two years since the refffferendum and the day of the actual exit is looming with still no agreeable solution for known problems being found. It’s something that should have been thought through ahead of the refffffferendum and before advocating to leave the EU.

 

At the present time expecting a favourable deal for any side is just wishful thinking. At the moment it does leave especially businesses in the Uk as well as in the EU in the limbo as no one knows how trade will be conducted in the future. Well no one except you of course.

[Christmas Tree 4669]

11 minutes ago, Isegrim said:

Of course it is a new situation and of course both sides are looking for a solution. That’s a totally meaningless statement.

 

The thing is that it’s more than two years since the refffferendum and the day of the actual exit is looming with still no agreeable solution for known problems being found. It’s something that should have been thought through ahead of the refffffferendum and before advocating to leave the EU.

 

At the present time expecting a favourable deal for any side is just wishful thinking. At the moment it does leave especially businesses in the Uk as well as in the EU in the limbo as no one knows how trade will be conducted in the future. Well no one except you of course.

 

I don’t disagree about the pre refferendum planning. Very few if anybody was discussing the consequences of the Irish border. But we are where we are and because it is in everyone’s interest to reach a withdrawal deal, I’m fairly certain one will be agreed.

 

We are in the final “tunnel”. May will agree a deal, it will come back to parliament and a binary choice will be given, deal or no deal.

 

Labour and conservative remainers will come under intense pressure to agree a deal that has been agreed by the EU 27 and the U.K. government. 

[ewerk 30159]

16 minutes ago, Christmas Tree said:

 

I don’t disagree about the pre refferendum planning. Very few if anybody was discussing the consequences of the Irish border

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/amp/uk-politics-eu-referendum-36486016

Just two former prime ministers. But what would they know?

[Isegrim 9676]

On 21.6.2016 at 23:23, Ant said:

 

hard border control between north/south again that's basically it, you've went from open border which makes tourism,travel and trade easier along with it looking more "open" between north/south, back to a hard border creating an isolation/division of the two, then the likes of sinn fein have already started talk of their needing to be a "unification" vote .

 

The economic ramifications for the north are what's far more worrying, especially in agriculture, among other issues with the flow of trade and customs etc

Ant’s answer to a question just ahead of the vote. Guess who was asking what...

 

Strange that nobody thought about the possible effects of a vote to leave.

[Renton 21032]

There was poll of leavers recently. The large majority, 80%,  were in favour of the break up of the union (Scotland, NI) if it meant they could have their precious Brexit. They don't give a shit. 

Edited October 28, 2018 by Renton

[Christmas Tree 4669]

3 hours ago, ewerk said:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/amp/uk-politics-eu-referendum-36486016

Just two former prime ministers. But what would they know?

 

As you know fine well, the issue wasn’t given the prominence it should have had given how important it’s become post vote. I could be wrong, but I don’t recall you banging on about it before the vote.

[Christmas Tree 4669]

59 minutes ago, Isegrim said:

Ant’s answer to a question just ahead of the vote. Guess who was asking what...

 

Strange that nobody thought about the possible effects of a vote to leave.

 

Yes, I raised it 2 days before, Cant recall it being discussed much until I did and certainly not how it would complicate getting a deal. 

[Renton 21032]

It didn't become an issue until May wrote her red lines and pulled us out of the SM and CU. Nobody thought that would happen, look back if you don't believe me,

[Rayvin 5150]

Here's my prediction:

 

The government will achieve hard Brexit with a couple of minor deviations from the Canada model which will be hailed as a great success because the Tories' future depends on people believing this.

 

The EU will regard the negotiations as a success for them because they probably will be, and CT will state that he was right because all sides are claiming victory and asserting that they have achieved their desired aims.

 

All will be lying, even the EU probably, but it will allow CT to say he was right.

[Gemmill 44090]

It's telling that CT is debating with a German bloke who is absolutely wiping the floor with him in terms of English grammar, vocabulary and spelling. And that's before you even get started on the respective content of their arguments. Brexit in a nutshell.

[Alex 34717]

Looking forward to the next couple of weeks with him going on about how great the Budget is 

[ewerk 30159]

10 hours ago, Christmas Tree said:

 

As you know fine well, the issue wasn’t given the prominence it should have had given how important it’s become post vote. I could be wrong, but I don’t recall you banging on about it before the vote.

Yeah, you see even in the event of a Leave win no one, not even the Leavers, were planning a hard Brexit so it wasn't so much of an issue for me. It's only since then that the Brexiteers have decided that the entire 52% wanted absolutely nothing to do with Europe any more that we have this has become such a sticking point. But there were smarter people than me warning about it before the vote, it's just that you, like most Englishmen, couldn't give a fuck about the future of NI.

[Renton 21032]

7 hours ago, Rayvin said:

Here's my prediction:

 

The government will achieve hard Brexit with a couple of minor deviations from the Canada model which will be hailed as a great success because the Tories' future depends on people believing this.

 

The EU will regard the negotiations as a success for them because they probably will be, and CT will state that he was right because all sides are claiming victory and asserting that they have achieved their desired aims.

 

All will be lying, even the EU probably, but it will allow CT to say he was right.

For that to happen, NI will need special status. And JiT industries will be fucked. It'll be very hard to dress it up as a win. I think, after what Raab has said recently, the Tories will go full on about EU bullying and intransigence in this scenario and things will turn very ugly. 

[Renton 21032]

21 minutes ago, ewerk said:

Yeah, you see even in the event of a Leave win no one, not even the Leavers, were planning a hard Brexit so it wasn't so much of an issue for me. It's only since then that the Brexiteers have decided that the entire 52% wanted absolutely nothing to do with Europe any more that we have this has become such a sticking point. But there were smarter people than me warning about it before the vote, it's just that you, like most Englishmen, couldn't give a fuck about the future of NI.

 

Of course it really became a huge issue after the GE when May leapt into bed with Foster. This is a disaster entirely of May's making.

[ewerk 30159]

But we're getting a new 50p coin to celebrate Brexit so it's all been worth it.

[Christmas Tree 4669]

 One day....

 

In other news, Merkel stepping down as leader of CDU following 2nd poor election results.

[NJS 4355]

More centrists biting the dust..... 

[ewerk 30159]

She's stepping down as leader but wants to remain as Chancellor.

[Rayvin 5150]

This is a bit of a worry since she's been the last adult in the room for some time, as far as international politics goes