Politics

[Christmas Tree 3997]

5 minutes ago, Renton said:

 

So we are staying in the CU then? How will that work with your fabled trade deals. You don't know what the backstop is, so you? Clueless.

 

 Answer the question on Nissan first and then I’ll put you right here as well.

[Renton 17825]

10 minutes ago, Christmas Tree said:

 

 

 

Im cherry picking

 

Ive quoted a paragraph from the article YOU linked, which clearly states they fear a no deal scenario and going on to WTO rules. 

 

You find me a sentence in the article that backs up your claim they are dead if we leave the SM.

 

Not your spin, a sentence. I’m waiting

 

It's the point of the whole article.

 

"Because Britain is currently part of the EU, this is a straightforward process. Each of the 28 EU member states belongs to the single market, which has been designed to facilitate trade by removing tariffs, as well as other trade and customs barriers. Rather than having 28 different industrial safety regulations, for instance, there is a single set of regulations that applies across all member states. The single market means trade between 28 different countries is free, fast and “frictionless”, just as it would be if the EU were one very large country. “Frictionless trade has enabled the growth that has seen our Sunderland plant become the biggest factory in the history of the UK car industry, exporting more than half of its production to the EU,” Nissan said, in a statement for this article."

 

Do you accept that a Canada deal means we are outside the SM?

 

I'm not arguing with you further since you can't grasp the basics. It's like trying to teach a 5 year old calculus.

Edited October 5, 2018 by Renton

[Christmas Tree 3997]

14 minutes ago, Renton said:

 

It's the point of the whole article.

 

"Because Britain is currently part of the EU, this is a straightforward process. Each of the 28 EU member states belongs to the single market, which has been designed to facilitate trade by removing tariffs, as well as other trade and customs barriers. Rather than having 28 different industrial safety regulations, for instance, there is a single set of regulations that applies across all member states. The single market means trade between 28 different countries is free, fast and “frictionless”, just as it would be if the EU were one very large country. “Frictionless trade has enabled the growth that has seen our Sunderland plant become the biggest factory in the history of the UK car industry, exporting more than half of its production to the EU,” Nissan said, in a statement for this article."

 

Do you accept that a Canada deal means we are outside the SM?

 

I'm not arguing with you further since you can't grasp the basics. It's like trying to teach a 5 year old calculus.

 

So you couldn’t. 

[ewerk 26441]

38 minutes ago, Christmas Tree said:

 

The Irish backstop will end up being a UK wide customs arrangement.

Firstly, that has been rejected by the EU.

Secondly, how does that prevent illegal goods such as substandard livestock passing over the border?

[Rayvin 4964]

So CT's position is that we'll get a deal which will eliminate tariffs on car parts and Nissan will survive. Renton's position is that no such deal is possible and it's the SM or WTO.

 

I dont think either of you can win this one yet although i still think it's wishful thinking from CT given everything we've seen so far.

 

CT, do you accept that if we don't get that deal, Nissan are in trouble?

[Christmas Tree 3997]

6 minutes ago, ewerk said:

Firstly, that has been rejected by the EU.

Secondly, how does that prevent illegal goods such as substandard livestock passing over the border?

 

But this is a negotiation, both sides are desperate for a deal and the U.K. wide backstop is the only goer in town.

 

As for the 2nd point, how do they handle illegal smuggling now? I imagine it will be all tied up in regulations over the next 2 years as the details are thrashed out and at some point the DUP will be thrown under the bus.

[Renton 17825]

3 minutes ago, Rayvin said:

So CT's position is that we'll get a deal which will eliminate tariffs on car parts and Nissan will survive. Renton's position is that no such deal is possible and it's the SM or WTO.

 

I dont think either of you can win this one yet although i still think it's wishful thinking from CT given everything we've seen so far.

 

CT, do you accept that if we don't get that deal, Nissan are in trouble?

 

Not quite. The EU has already offered Canada plus, it suits them as they have a trade surplus. But the problem with it is that it doesn't stop non tariff frictions and will most definitely kill Nissan and the supply chains. That's why economic models show Canada is only marginally better for the NE than WTO. It's always been about the non tariff barriers, tariffs themselves are a resolvable side issue.

 

CT doesn't get what the single market is and does. Classic Dunning Kruger.

[ewerk 26441]

1 minute ago, Christmas Tree said:

 

But this is a negotiation, both sides are desperate for a deal and the U.K. wide backstop is the only goer in town.

 

As for the 2nd point, how do they handle illegal smuggling now? I imagine it will be all tied up in regulations over the next 2 years as the details are thrashed out and at some point the DUP will be thrown under the bus.

The EU will not negotiate away one of the key tenets that has made it so successful. It cannot and will not offer one of the four freedoms without the rest. If you understand that then you will have a much better understanding of the whole withdrawal process.

And what sort of smuggling are you referring to going on now?

[Christmas Tree 3997]

8 minutes ago, Rayvin said:

So CT's position is that we'll get a deal which will eliminate tariffs on car parts and Nissan will survive. Renton's position is that no such deal is possible and it's the SM or WTO.

 

I dont think either of you can win this one yet although i still think it's wishful thinking from CT given everything we've seen so far.

 

CT, do you accept that if we don't get that deal, Nissan are in trouble?

 

Not neccesarily, for a few reasons.

 

1. I think we’d be able to overcome frictions at the border as we do for most goods arriving from outside the EU using tech.

 

2. The article Renton quotes talks about WTO costing Nissan £500 mill a year. That’s well within a government’s ability to smooth over by various means. E.G. There’s a massive hi tech park under construction next door to Nissan to allow some of Nissans overseas suppliers to set up on the doorstep.

 

3. I just can’t ever see this getting to no deal past March. If we approach that scenario May will go or Government goes or election / refferendum takes over and article 50 extended.

 

Everybody is grandstanding as the negogiations reach their climax if as I suspect, a good deal is agreed, I think it will be very hard in the cold light of day for Labour and the ERG to vote it down.

[Christmas Tree 3997]

11 minutes ago, ewerk said:

The EU will not negotiate away one of the key tenets that has made it so successful. It cannot and will not offer one of the four freedoms without the rest. If you understand that then you will have a much better understanding of the whole withdrawal process.

And what sort of smuggling are you referring to going on now?

 

The EU have already offered the custom union as a back stop to NI. So they will budge when it suits.

[ewerk 26441]

8 minutes ago, Christmas Tree said:

 

The EU have already offered the custom union as a back stop to NI. So they will budge when it suits.

No they won’t. Did you not see their reaction to May in Salzburg?

[Christmas Tree 3997]

2 minutes ago, ewerk said:

No they won’t. Did you not see their reaction to May in Salzburg?

 

That was to the whole chequers package. This is mainly just about solving the backstop. It’s been the sensible option since day 1 and will be the option we agree.

 

It sorts the withdrawal agreement and gives the Brexit lobby at least 2 years (could be extended), to put up or shut up about technical solutions.

[ewerk 26441]

47 minutes ago, Christmas Tree said:

 

That was to the whole chequers package. This is mainly just about solving the backstop. It’s been the sensible option since day 1 and will be the option we agree.

 

It sorts the withdrawal agreement and gives the Brexit lobby at least 2 years (could be extended), to put up or shut up about technical solutions.

The backstop is for NI only. That much has been very clear. The future trading relationship will not be settled as part of the withdrawal agreement. Again, that has been made very clear. You can bang on about it being a negotiation but the EU have made it abundantly clear what the parameters are for the future relationship from the beginning. It’s only the government and Brexiteers who have failed to grasp it.

[Renton 17825]

16 minutes ago, ewerk said:

The backstop is for NI only. That much has been very clear. The future trading relationship will not be settled as part of the withdrawal agreement. Again, that has been made very clear. You can bang on about it being a negotiation but the EU have made it abundantly clear what the parameters are for the future relationship from the beginning. It’s only the government and Brexiteers who have failed to grasp it.

The more informed Brexiteers are beginning to grasp this. The dimmer ones, not so much. 

[Christmas Tree 3997]

24 minutes ago, ewerk said:

The backstop is for NI only. That much has been very clear. The future trading relationship will not be settled as part of the withdrawal agreement. Again, that has been made very clear. You can bang on about it being a negotiation but the EU have made it abundantly clear what the parameters are for the future relationship from the beginning. It’s only the government and Brexiteers who have failed to grasp it.

 

No, the backstop agreed in December was for the whole U.K. The EU then tried to amend this in April with their legal text and we have been in stalemate ever since.

 

Regardless whether you like it or not, this is a negogiation and a compromise will have to be agreed.

 

This, hot off the press from The Times today.

 

 

[ewerk 26441]

18 minutes ago, Christmas Tree said:

 

No, the backstop agreed in December was for the whole U.K. The EU then tried to amend this in April with their legal text and we have been in stalemate ever since.

 

Regardless whether you like it or not, this is a negogiation and a compromise will have to be agreed.

 

This, hot off the press from The Times today.

 

 

Uh, no. The backstop is for NI only.

The commitments and principles outlined in this joint report will not pre-determine the outcome of wider discussions on the future relationship between the European Union and the United Kingdom and are, as necessary, specific to the unique circumstances on the island of Ireland. They are made and must be upheld in all circumstances, irrespective of the nature of any future agreement between the European Union and United Kingdom.

 

And again, a customs union alone does not sort out the NI border or frictionless trade.

 

[Christmas Tree 3997]

3 hours ago, ewerk said:

Uh, no. The backstop is for NI only.

 

 

And again, a customs union alone does not sort out the NI border or frictionless trade.

 

No, but the idea is that if the EU agree to the customs union, we will agree to regulatory alignment on Ireland.

[Christmas Tree 3997]

In fact, here we go

 

 

[ewerk 26441]

1 hour ago, Christmas Tree said:

In fact, here we go

 

 

 

I misread your earlier post and thought you were talking about May’s plan to be in the SM for goods. Apologies, you can now truly go home and tell your family that this has been your greatest day ever on TT.

The problem for May is that the DUP will most likely withdraw their support and even if they don’t she will have difficulty getting ERG backing.

[Christmas Tree 3997]

10 minutes ago, ewerk said:

 

I misread your earlier post and thought you were talking about May’s plan to be in the SM for goods. Apologies, you can now truly go home and tell your family that this has been your greatest day ever on TT.

The problem for May is that the DUP will most likely withdraw their support and even if they don’t she will have difficulty getting ERG backing.

 

 

I don’t disagree with the last bits but since losing a majority it’s been one painful step at a time.  Could well be that in return for backing on the backstop she agrees to chuck chequers and take Canada.

 

The DUP will probably take another bribe. Arlene is in with Barnier tomorrow so we’ll see how this goes.

 

I do wonder if there’s a bit of choreography going on.

[Renton 17825]

8 minutes ago, Christmas Tree said:

 

 

I don’t disagree with the last bits but since losing a majority it’s been one painful step at a time.  Could well be that in return for backing on the backstop she agrees to chuck chequers and take Canada.

 

The DUP will probably take another bribe. Arlene is in with Barnier tomorrow so we’ll see how this goes.

 

I do wonder if there’s a bit of choreography going on.

 

That would lead to a permanent backstop in NI. I doubt the DUP could agree to that. And death of JiT manufacturing, just in 2020 rather than 2019. What a ridiculously complicated arrangement just to get a good trade deal with Swaziland.

[ewerk 26441]

The death of JIT manufacturing AND losing the ability to strike our own trade deals. Cracking deal all round.

[Renton 17825]

1 minute ago, ewerk said:

The death of JIT manufacturing AND losing the ability to strike our own trade deals. Cracking deal all round.

Oh, aye. 

 

It's all about the immugrants really. 

[Howmanheyman 26942]

I can't wait till the moment we can all say the government's getting the hang of this brexit lark. 

[Alex 30452]

I see Gove has suggested people should be allowed to scavenge rubbish tips for old TVs etc.

Edited October 8, 2018 by Alex