Donald Trump

[Dr Gloom 24644]

Just now, Rayvin said:

 

My assessment of Hamas was about as grim as I could make it, so I'm not sure what in there felt charitable about it. 

 

Iran I'm not saying are blameless actors in this, they should just make peace with the political reality of the situation of Israel existing whether they consider it to be fair or not - but regardless I do not see any evidence at all in how the act that they would pre-emptively launch a nuclear missile that would guarantee their own annihilation at the same time. Nothing about how they have conducted any of this suggests that would be true.

 

yeah, i dunno if they'd be batshit enough to acquire a nuke, let alone launch one preemptively. not sure i agree with renton on that one, though nor would i want iran to get its hand on a nuke to test his theory

 

re: hamas, i dunno if i'd be as charitable to describe them as cornered animal, as if they don't bear some responsibility for Israel's retaliatory strikes. i hate hamas every bit as much as i hate netanyahu. 

 

my position is this: there is zero justification for what netanyahu has done to gaza. none whatsoever. it pains me to say this as a pro-israeli, but it is ethnic cleansing. netanyahu and his cronies should stand trial for war crimes. the only longterm outcome for the next generation of israelis is more fear, insecurity and death. you can try and destroy then annex gaza but this isn't going away. his actions turned israel into a pariah state while recruiting the next generation of hamas terrorists. that's all it's achieved - along with the slaughter of thousands of innocent civilians. 

 

however, hamas - and by extension iran - knew exactly what they were doing when they launched the october 7 attacks. they knew the israeli response would be brutal. the truth is khameni/netanyahu and hamas all wanted the conflict. both netanyahu and hamas need it to cling to power, which is all they care about - neither side care about the people they represent. 

 

[Dr Gloom 24644]

1 hour ago, Rayvin said:

 

But then they could just have done it by now. No one can stop Iran developing nukes if it wants to - no one. Not Israel, not the US. The best any external entity can do is try to force regime change, but that isn't a guarantee. IMO Iran is adopting the same strategy that Sadam attempted to use - he didn't have WMDs but he didn't actually tell anyone that because it was more useful for him to be in a position whereby people assumed he was dangerous than to actually justify that perception. Iran doesn't need nukes, it just needs to look like it can be close enough to getting them at any given point for Israel to leave it the fuck alone. And the reason I'm confident that this is the strategy they're working to is that they could have had nukes by now if they really wanted them.

 

I've done a lot of reading over the past few days about the Iranian regime and its politics, and it seems that its regional militias are worth more to it than any nuclear weapon would be. Moreover, it seems to be focused more on Saudi than Israel or the West - which I would argue supports the idea that it is a politically motivated actor, not a religiously motivated one.

 

Triggernometry is a right wing youtube channel that talks highbrow but we wouldn't cite it in any other context.

 

EDIT - if you don't believe me on that last point, look at their most recent videos. They've interviewed Reform's chairman, they've got another view a few days earlier talking about how Britain is a nation of immigrants, South African farm murders, yet another video on immigration into the UK, the end of wokeism, how the left is to blame for creating the right, another video on UK immigration... that's going back 1 month. That's the sort of channel this is, and the one you're aligning yourself with on this point. Maybe they're right, but I don't know why I should believe they are based on the nonsense of the rest of their channel.

 

i just watched it. don't know much about the channel beyond what you posted but i can see why renton is freaking out. syed makes a persuasive case 

[Renton 24975]

57 minutes ago, Rayvin said:

 

My assessment of Hamas was about as grim as I could make it, so I'm not sure what in there felt charitable about it. 

 

Iran I'm not saying are blameless actors in this, they should just make peace with the political reality of the situation of Israel existing whether they consider it to be fair or not - but regardless I do not see any evidence at all in how they act that they would pre-emptively launch a nuclear missile that would guarantee their own annihilation at the same time. Nothing about how they have conducted any of this suggests that would be true.

 

If you were absolutely convinced that the annihilation of Israel would guarantee you an infinite life in paradise, would it not be rational to do this? 

We've had countless examples of jihadist suicide terrorists giving up their lives for this exact motivation. The prospect of a nuclear Iran is not one that gives me much comfort. I don't understand why you don't get they have a completely different mindset. 

 

And no, they haven't achieved this - yet - due to a combination of many external pressures. But they are in contravention of treaties and have a large stock pile of uranium enriched far beyond what is useful for civilian use. Which has gone missing BTW. Comparisons with Iraq are bogus, this forum is old enough to record that most this board, me included, knew the WMD claims the were false (as did the inspectors of the time).

 

Really the US had to completely destroy their nuclear programme. If reports are true they have only caused a minor set back, i think the problem is much worse as inspectors will not be returning. 

Edited 6 hours ago by Renton

[Rayvin 6699]

47 minutes ago, Dr Gloom said:

 

yeah, i dunno if they'd be batshit enough to acquire a nuke, let alone launch one preemptively. not sure i agree with renton on that one, though nor would i want iran to get its hand on a nuke to test his theory

 

re: hamas, i dunno if i'd be as charitable to describe them as cornered animal, as if they don't bear some responsibility for Israel's retaliatory strikes. i hate hamas every bit as much as i hate netanyahu. 

 

my position is this: there is zero justification for what netanyahu has done to gaza. none whatsoever. it pains me to say this as a pro-israeli, but it is ethnic cleansing. netanyahu and his cronies should stand trial for war crimes. the only longterm outcome for the next generation of israelis is more fear, insecurity and death. you can try and destroy then annex gaza but this isn't going away. his actions turned israel into a pariah state while recruiting the next generation of hamas terrorists. that's all it's achieved - along with the slaughter of thousands of innocent civilians. 

 

however, hamas - and by extension iran - knew exactly what they were doing when they launched the october 7 attacks. they knew the israeli response would be brutal. the truth is khameni/netanyahu and hamas all wanted the conflict. both netanyahu and hamas need it to cling to power, which is all they care about - neither side care about the people they represent. 

 

 

The problem to a degree is October 7th has become something akin to the 'start of history' on this issue now, whereas I would argue Nakba was the start. 700,000 Arabs kicked out of their homes and driven out of regions of Palestine that they lived in. 15k dead. Everything that has followed has been in response to that - Hamas are monsters, but they're monsters born out of a hatred that I can understand - not justify, but understand. If my family, my community, had been purged in the way that Palestinians were - driven from their homes and ethnically cleansed - I would also likely be very hateful. That says nothing about Israel's right to exist, but simply looks at the consequences of their actions. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nakba

 

Since Nakba there have been 140,000 Palestinians killed by Israel. I've seen reports of small children being shot in their mother's arms by the IDF, little girls climbing over rubble and being shot twice (double tap to make sure), 10 year olds being taken out by snipers - all of this before October 7th. Just routine stuff. You do not need religion to make people hate in this situation. You just don't. The hate is automatic in response to the sorts of things the IDF have been perpetrating for decades. And to be really, really clear - if our children and families were suffering random executions, poisoned water supplies, forcible theft of property and so on.. we'd hate them too. Whoever that external force was, we'd hate them. That's why I view Hamas differently - because they're the product/consequence of that situation.

[Rayvin 6699]

3 minutes ago, Renton said:

 

If you were absolutely convinced that the annihilation of Israel would guarantee you an infinite life in paradise, would it not be rational to do this? 

We've had countless examples of jihadist suicide terrorists giving up their lives for this exact motivation. The prospect of a nuclear Iran is not one that gives me much comfort. I don't understand why you don't get they have a completely different mindset. 

 

And no, they haven't achieved this - yet - due to a combination of many external pressures. But they are in contravention of treaties and have a large stock pile of uranium enriched far beyond what is useful for civilian use. Which has gone missing BTW. Comparisons with Iraq are bogus, this forum is old enough to record that most this board, me included, knew the WMD claims the were false (as did the inspectors of the time).

 

Really the US had to completely destroy their nuclear programme. If reports are true they have only caused a minor set back, i think the problem is much worse as inspectors will not be returning. 

 

There was never any possibility that Iran's nuclear programme could be destroyed because they are a sufficiently educated country that the knowledge is just 'within' the state now. They are not an Islamic backwater. They seem to have decided back in the early 2000s not to pursue this anymore and genuinely must have stopped because if they didn't, they'd have achieved them by now.

 

I strongly suspect the Iranian government uses religion to motivate people in the same way everyone does - that does not mean they would take the same risks themselves. They will see themselves as an entity that safeguards their faith. What is more important to them, preserving Islam or destroying Israel? To me, I agree with you that it's now more likely that they will develop one, but how has Israel's interest been served here then? Trump and Iran were talking, why did Israel even do this? They wanted regime change, it's the best guess I've got, and because they've failed, they've made the world more dangerous. Would you agree with that much at least?

[Renton 24975]

5 minutes ago, Rayvin said:

 

There was never any possibility that Iran's nuclear programme could be destroyed because they are a sufficiently educated country that the knowledge is just 'within' the state now. They are not an Islamic backwater. They seem to have decided back in the early 2000s not to pursue this anymore and genuinely must have stopped because if they didn't, they'd have achieved them by now.

 

I strongly suspect the Iranian government uses religion to motivate people in the same way everyone does - that does not mean they would take the same risks themselves. They will see themselves as an entity that safeguards their faith. What is more important to them, preserving Islam or destroying Israel? To me, I agree with you that it's now more likely that they will develop one, but how has Israel's interest been served here then? Trump and Iran were talking, why did Israel even do this? They wanted regime change, it's the best guess I've got, and because they've failed, they've made the world more dangerous. Would you agree with that much at least?

 

Yes, we agree on the latter point. 

Building a nuclear bomb is not easy. But it is a documented fact (by UN inspectors) that they were/are trying, or at least positioning themselves to have the capability. No other reason to possess these centrifuges or have a stockpile of 60% high grade uranium, would you agree that?

 

Again, your suggesting Iran is just the average Joe autocratic state. It's not, it's a theocracy. The only one in the World I can think of outside the Vatican. It is the embodiment of an idealogical zeal to wipe out Israel. I don't t think coexistence is possible.

[Dr Gloom 24644]

57 minutes ago, Rayvin said:

 

The problem to a degree is October 7th has become something akin to the 'start of history' on this issue now, whereas I would argue Nakba was the start. 700,000 Arabs kicked out of their homes and driven out of regions of Palestine that they lived in. 15k dead. Everything that has followed has been in response to that - Hamas are monsters, but they're monsters born out of a hatred that I can understand - not justify, but understand. If my family, my community, had been purged in the way that Palestinians were - driven from their homes and ethnically cleansed - I would also likely be very hateful. That says nothing about Israel's right to exist, but simply looks at the consequences of their actions. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nakba

 

Since Nakba there have been 140,000 Palestinians killed by Israel. I've seen reports of small children being shot in their mother's arms by the IDF, little girls climbing over rubble and being shot twice (double tap to make sure), 10 year olds being taken out by snipers - all of this before October 7th. Just routine stuff. You do not need religion to make people hate in this situation. You just don't. The hate is automatic in response to the sorts of things the IDF have been perpetrating for decades. And to be really, really clear - if our children and families were suffering random executions, poisoned water supplies, forcible theft of property and so on.. we'd hate them too. Whoever that external force was, we'd hate them. That's why I view Hamas differently - because they're the product/consequence of that situation.

 

palestine was never an independent country. this sometimes gets lost in these discussions. it was part of the ottoman empire, later carved up as british mandate post WWI then as the state of israel by the UN after the brits ended the mandate.

 

i'm not defending the displacement and murder of palestinian people from a region they called home. of course i understand the hatred but israelis are also a product of their situation. the creation of the state of israel was a response to the holocaust, backed by the british and supported by the international community (beyond the arab world).

 

the international consensus was that jews needed a home, a place they could be safe after centuries fleeing persecution, most recently across europe during the pogroms and later the holocaust. 

 

that goes some way to explain what israel means to a lot of jewish people. those who live there today do so in fear and paranoia. they know they are surrounded by neighbours who hate them and who hate western style liberal democracy. unfortunately that paranoia has developed into the sort of rabid nationalism we see today in netanyahu's cabinet. 

[Toonpack 12649]

2 hours ago, Dr Gloom said:

 

your assessment of hamas and iran is rather forgiving. hamas is a terrorist group committed to the destruction of the state of israel and are supported by iran, which also wants to wipe the "zionist entity" from the map. iran also played a significant hand encouraging hamas to launch the october 7 attacks which helped give netanyahu the political capital needed to start all of this. remember iran did so in a bid to upend the normalisation of Israel-Saudi relations and further destabilise the region, so they achieved that goal. iran has also been engaged in proxy wars in the region for decades. i deplore what nethanyahu and trump are doing now also, but let's call a spade a spade. 

 

Hamas who were funded/propped up, initially to oppose the PLO, for years by Israel/Netanyahu. As for Oct 7th, I agree with your comments but there is nothing that can convince me that Netanyahu and the so called "best intelligence service in the world" didn't know it was coming and that they let it happen to create that political capital.

 

It's lost in the noise now, but Egypt warned Israel days before it happened but I am convinced Israel knew anyway.

 

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-67082047

[Dr Gloom 24644]

18 minutes ago, Toonpack said:

 

Hamas who were funded/propped up, initially to oppose the PLO, for years by Israel/Netanyahu. As for Oct 7th, I agree with your comments but there is nothing that can convince me that Netanyahu and the so called "best intelligence service in the world" didn't know it was coming and that they let it happen to create that political capital.

 

It's lost in the noise now, but Egypt warned Israel days before it happened but I am convinced Israel knew anyway.

 

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-67082047

mate, I’m convinced it delighted Netanyahu. That’s how much of a cunt the man is. He cares only about power, not the Israeli people. And certainly not the Palestinian people 

[Renton 24975]

2 hours ago, Dr Gloom said:

 

i just watched it. don't know much about the channel beyond what you posted but i can see why renton is freaking out. syed makes a persuasive case 

 

To clarify, it's an opinion I held before Syed. It also concerns me there will be high ranking people in the US who believe in the rapture who would like to make armageddon a self fulfilling prophecy. They really believe this shit.

[Renton 24975]

54 minutes ago, Toonpack said:

 

Hamas who were funded/propped up, initially to oppose the PLO, for years by Israel/Netanyahu. As for Oct 7th, I agree with your comments but there is nothing that can convince me that Netanyahu and the so called "best intelligence service in the world" didn't know it was coming and that they let it happen to create that political capital.

 

It's lost in the noise now, but Egypt warned Israel days before it happened but I am convinced Israel knew anyway.

 

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-67082047

 

Am not generally believing of conspiracy theories but reckon this one probably holds. I mean howay, Mossad manged to infiltrate hezbollah with hundreds of pager bombs but didn't spot this coming?

[Dr Gloom 24644]

It’s like i said - all the biggest cunts in the region wanted/needed the conflict to escalate to further their own ambitions. 

[Monkeys Fist 47185]

1 hour ago, Dr Gloom said:

the creation of the state of israel was a response to the holocaust

Admittedly, my knowledge of how they came to choose Israel as the place is lacking, but surely just after the war, when Europe was being redrawn, they could’ve made somewhere in Europe as the Jewish homeland that wasn’t surrounded by Arabs? 
 

I don’t know- southern Italy, Gibraltar, anywhere other than slap-bang in the middle of the Arab world? 

[Monkeys Fist 47185]

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Proposals_for_a_Jewish_state
 

Bloody hell- not many places proposed where you’d actually want to live. 

[Dr Gloom 24644]

27 minutes ago, Monkeys Fist said:

Admittedly, my knowledge of how they came to choose Israel as the place is lacking, but surely just after the war, when Europe was being redrawn, they could’ve made somewhere in Europe as the Jewish homeland that wasn’t surrounded by Arabs? 
 

I don’t know- southern Italy, Gibraltar, anywhere other than slap-bang in the middle of the Arab world? 

It’s the land Jews were forced to flee from by the Romans. There has always been a cultural and religious connection. Jewish people have always lived there (in numbers massively diminished, of course) and Jews were “returning” there long before 1948.

 

But it’s a classic example of how territory is carved up post-war. Decisions are taken to over how to deal with the spoils of war; new borders are established with little thought given to long term implications. See Kashmir etc etc 

[Rayvin 6699]

The real issue I have isn't with which state belongs where, it's that many hundreds of thousands of Palestinians were forcibly kicked out of their actual homes. Their whole lives were stolen. Surely there was a better way. Surely integration was that way.

[Dr Gloom 24644]

14 minutes ago, Rayvin said:

The real issue I have isn't with which state belongs where, it's that many hundreds of thousands of Palestinians were forcibly kicked out of their actual homes. Their whole lives were stolen. Surely there was a better way. Surely integration was that way.

it’s a good question. Could a single state Israel have existed in peace without the displacement of so many Palestinian Arabs? Fuck knows. FWIW, I think Palestinian Israelis (a sizeable chunk of israel’s population) enjoy a much better life than those poor sods in Gaza. 

[Toonpack 12649]

https://archive.is/rHhMU