Rayvin
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Posts
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Everything posted by Rayvin
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Ukraine is gone IMO, the best we can hope is that he conquers it with minimal bloodshed. Western policy on this has failed absolutely. Bluff has been called, and the vacuum of US withdrawal from global leadership awaits. As if Putin was going to be stopped by sanctions when he'd moved 200,000 troops to the border. All priced in. I work with a programmer in Dnipro. He messaged this morning to say he could hear explosions and his city was under martial law. Dnipro is on the other side of the country to the contested region ffs, and is a civilian target, surely? No bullshit reason Russia can give is worth this.
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I suspect a 'large enough to be depressing' number of them think that Ukraine is actually us, though. I've heard that this is a thing that happens over there.
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Aye, even then Nothing wrong with a bit of passion in a discussion though, I'm guilty of it myself plenty of times. I have a lot of respect for the people I discuss things with on here
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"those who monitor 5G"... what?
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Always a pleasure to debate with you, my friend
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Absolutely agree with this. De-escalation would be the best outcome by far and away.
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Then I think we've come to some semblance of a position we can both appreciate. Ukraine is in Europe, trying to join NATO and the EU. It is a potential friend and ally, under threat from a historic oppressor. I would want us to defend them because I don't think someone as calculating as Putin actually has the balls for a proper head on fight with the US. Maybe I'm wrong, it's not me making the decision either way - but there are consequences to our relative inaction here, and we'll be seeing them for years. I also think Biden's presidency will be defined by this to some extent.
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They're saying they'll do anything possible to support, which at least reads as though it includes military support. At least it could be read that way. They 'regret every single life lost' which could also be read that way, and they want to integrate Ukraine into NATO and Europe, clearly stated. Have we done that?
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Psychopath doesn't mean he has no sense of self preservation. We have psychopaths in office around the world, running businesses, at the top end of society in many places. They don't get there by making suicide plays just to spite people. They get there by preying on weakness and not giving a damn about anything other than their own objectives. None of Putin's objectives will be "get Russia nuked".
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That is indeed a great statement. The smaller nations, who know they have the most to lose from a collapse of international order, making themselves heard - this is why it is so important to stand up for these norms, so that countries like Kenya, Estonia and Ukraine have a voice and the ability to govern themselves.
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I mean this thread is really a discussion about US politics IMO, it just changes name based on whoever is President. It was previously a Trump thread, no? I don't think Russia would commit to their own actual annihilation over a loss of face in a ground war with the US that they know for sure they wouldn't win.
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Estonia apparently prepared to step up for Western values, even if Europe and the US won't: We stand united with Ukraine. We will not walk away. We will continue to support you in every possible way. I praise the Ukrainian leaders who, despite constant provocations, remain calm and express willingness to solve this conflict peacefully. Russia must end the intolerable provocations and stop fuelling the conflict, which has been ongoing for eight years. Moscow should immediately and unconditionally withdraw its forces from Ukraine’s territory and its immediate vicinity. We strongly condemn all military and hybrid actions against Ukraine. We regret that despite diplomatic efforts, there are no signs of willingness to de-escalate - quite the opposite, [with] the buildup of Russian forces continues, including in Belarus. I align myself with everyone who wishes we had a way to secure peace through the force of diplomacy and dialogue. Indeed, it is a decisive moment in European history. President Putin will answer to future generations for his violent actions. As European and western leaders, we also have the responsibility to step up to our values [and] our commitment to a Europe that is united and at peace. We regret every single life lost. It is our duty to protect our common values and the democracy we all helped to build. A threat to Ukraine is a threat to the security of Europe. The minimum we can do is to step up our practical support to Ukraine, which Estonia has done and will continue to do. In the EU, we will deliver on a massive package of sanctions and do so swiftly and decisively. But most importantly we must keep the door to EU and Nato open for Ukraine and we must have concrete next steps for further cooperation and integration. We know you will continue to value democracy and remain on the path of reforms. Eventually we will welcome you as the member of the European Union - you belong in Europe. We support Ukraine’s independence, sovereignty and territorial integrity. We remain fully committed to the policy of non-recognition of illegal annexation of Ukraine’s territories. Ukraine has a right to defend its borders and independence and we continue helping Ukraine to build its military capabilities to stand against the aggression.
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I'm attempting to appraise our strategy of containment for Putin across several decades. This is where the failure is. If there are no good options now, it's because we failed in the build up. Our sanctions failed in Crimea, apparently. Otherwise we wouldn't be here, right? If Putin gave a shit about sanctions, this wouldn't have happened. I don't personally believe he'd bring nukes into play over an invasion into another country btw, he's not stupid. I think we could ground war that. More than that, I think he'd actually fall off his chair if we actually did it. If we had marched troops into Ukraine as a 'peacekeeping' force, what would he have done? Launched nukes? I doubt it.
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That wasn't the bluff - the bluff was the idea that the West had the resolve to stand up to him properly. He's priced in the sanctions man, clearly they're not a concern compared to taking Ukraine or he wouldn't be doing it.
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I don't want to die in a nuclear holocaust either fwiw. I just think he's called our bluff and won.
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In reality, as we all know, we wouldn't. I doubt we'd actually do anything up until he was against the German borders tbh.
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I do realise this, I know I'll never see it. Putin and his right wing cronies the world over are actively taking us away from it though. This shit might cost us an extra century in the long run, maybe more. I think the EU is arguably a bigger player than even the US, if it could just federalise properly. If it could manage that, Russia would be a minor player in a bigger whole. It's not your job to work this out either. Putin has taken decades to get to this point, are we really saying that over the course of the last 30 years, progress couldn't have been made to avoid escalations like this? Putin wanted Russia to be taken seriously as a nation, and not to have the US encroaching on its borders. He reached out many times to the West in the early years, and while I really don't like the guy, we more or less spat in his face. As I said though, if there was never anything that could have been done, then the west has been pretending to be much more powerful than it actually is. And that's the most dangerous part of all of this, that revelation.
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I can see that, but this place has a habit of pigeonholing me into categories I don't actually belong to a lot of the time I am, first and foremost, a believer in a wider ranging and internationalist vision of humanity represented by increasingly strong ties between cultures and peoples, and the eventual elimination of the nation state. A fantasy, frankly, but that's what I believe in. It's why our departure from the EU was such a deal breaker for me with Labour. I find the idea that we'd abandon a sovereign country that is geographically inside of Europe, to a country that has enacted genocide upon them in living memory, to be utterly abhorrent. Stuff like this shows me that the West just isn't interested in what it purports to stand for. We may have been once, but now we have our tails between our legs, licking our wounds from our own right wing insurgencies and attempts to upset the international norms. As I've said many times, this stance is only going to embolden others. So it's not "we are sacrificing Ukraine", it's "we are sacrificing Western values and international norms throughout the world". They secured the Security Council during the cold war in recognition of their strength as a super power, that's hardly even relevant to now. Putin has made overtures to both NATO and the EU and we have locked him out. That is as much because it has been convenient for us to 'have a threat' to justify US military spending, as it is because Russia doesn't tick all the required boxes IMO. Frankly though, I don't get paid to think up strategies to contain Russia - that's not my job. Whoever does have that job, has failed. That's my point. So we can frame my whole position as this, if it's more acceptable to you: Whether we could have done anything about this or not, what it reveals about the West is that we are weak, riven by fear and insecurity, and that we will not stand up in defence of countries which share our values and systems. It reveals that the US philosophy is ultimately empty, there's just nothing there. It's all words. Renton is saying that this is the best we can do - fine - but then words were all it ever was. And Putin is showing us that he now understands that.
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Why does him being a psychopath mean he can't join the EU? Thatcher was a psychopath and we were in the EU. Besides, we'd be inviting Russia, not Putin. Russia will outlast Putin. I'm fine with my position on this. The fact that we've got to where we are shows a complete failure of Western strategy to contain Russia. You seem to talk as if there was nothing we could have done to stop this happening. That's ludicrous IMO. We have failed.
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Who said using military force? It's an option but if we had any semblance of competence, if the West wasn't in compete turmoil, it wouldn't have come to this. We're just about to enter the power vacuum left behind by the much diminished US. We should have been sending out olive branches to Putin long before this - now, he's going to continue taking apart everything we believe in. He secured Trump, Brexit, Crimea, and now Ukraine. He's getting everything he wants and we're just standing there, bending over.
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No it isn't. Standing by as he conquers neighbouring states is the definition of appeasement. Bringing him to the table so that we can interconnect, foster trust and lasting relationships, thus potentially encouraging and supporting change, is IMO at least, mature and rational. We will agree to disagree on this in the end I suspect, but I'm disgusted with the West on this. Disgusted with Putin too, he's a complete fucking psychopath, but we in the West clearly don't care about anything beyond our own borders anymore. Internationalism is doomed.
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https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/nov/04/ex-nato-head-says-putin-wanted-to-join-alliance-early-on-in-his-rule Yes the EU should have accepted him if it averted stuff like this and brought him to the table. We'll inevitably have to end up in bed with Russia long term anyway. Both of these are 'counteroffers' of good diplomacy - bringing people to the table rather than holding them up as the enemy. But it's more than that though - this shows that as far as Putin is concerned, he 'won' in Crimea. Whatever we did in response to that clearly failed. We therefore miscalculated that our response would be sufficient to deter further aggression. Putin could take the whole country if he wanted to and we'd do nothing beyond apparently ineffectual sanctions, that's what I now think. He's compromising international order, every unreacted to event like this, everything he 'gets away with' loosens the bonds that tie the world together.
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Whether we have handled it in the right way comes down to whether the Ukraine ever gets its territories back. We look weak as fuck to me, Putin wouldn't have gone in if he didn't think he'd won. I'm not saying we should be throwing nukes around, I'm saying that if we were doing diplomacy right, this never would have happened. If we'd encouraged Putin to join the EU, or let him join NATO when he asked. Why is Russia still on the table as a "threat" at all? The answer is that democracy fails us in moments like this. We are inconsistent through government and policy change, Russia is not. We are slow to react and pivot to new ideas and developments because we rule by committee, Russia is not. Putin is currently shining a light on what the West is. What is revealed in that light will determine how Russia, China, Brazil and various other regional powers will engage with us in future. So far, it looks grim. Biden looks weak.
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Feels like he's won to me. Appeasement from Biden and the EU, really underlining the decline of the west. Dismal to see.
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If we play like we have been, this one is in the bag. And it should be the one the finally puts an end to any lingering fears.
