Rayvin
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Posts
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Everything posted by Rayvin
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A proportionate military response that ensures no quick victory in the Ukraine for Russia while also making very clear that there is no intent to 'chase' Russia back to Moscow. Using whatever means that would entail, I'm not qualified enough to say. If Putin starts losing, he'll lose his grip on power. I still do not believe that Russia will fire nukes over their own war of aggression, even if they fail.
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You have a line in the sand, presumably, over which you would determine that you would have the UK fight him. Ukraine isn't your line, that's fair enough - but your argument doesn't hold unless you have no line at all. "We can let him have this one, it's not that bad" is a thin end of the wedge style approach that will lead to a cascading waterfall of landgrabs by 'strong men' the world over. And also, I really don't see Putin firing nukes over a war that he himself is the aggressor in. If we were trying to take over Russia, sure. But this isn't what that is.
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As crazy as it sounds at first reading (sorry PL ) I actually do think bumping him off would have the desired effect. No way any of his cronies would continue this without him. I don't think we live in a world where that can happen, but it wouldn't be a bad option.
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I'm with PL, I said so further up the page. He needs to be physically stopped.
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He must be very, very confident - he's put everything on this. If he doesn't succeed then I'm not even sure he'd be able to hang onto power. Russia would be humiliated across the world. He must be basically certain that he's going to win. They'll take out airbases and infrastructure and limit Ukraine's response capabilities to ground based approaches with limited manoeuvrability and options for co-ordination. If Ukraine ever got any sort of a foothold, IMO, he'll start hitting civilian targets. He may well already be doing that. This is the man who bought and paid for both Brexit and Trump, who has been destabilising our civilisation for decades. Yes, we created him. Yes, we should have approached this differently, and yes, this is partially our fault - but in the end, he's the incel out there with a gun who has started shooting. We need to act.
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I broadly agree with this but I don't see it happening until he takes another step. I don't know why but Europe always seems to need to throw one country to the dogs before it'll actually do anything about it.
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Ukraine's government is arming civilians, which makes me think we're going to see resistance once the government collapses. Putin doesn't give a shit anymore IMO, he's going to kill whoever he has to in order to conquer and subjugate them.
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This is absolutely true, and I say this even while some of my close friends fall into this bracket. Blinded by their hatred of US politics, they can't see what they're supporting.
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Ukraine is gone IMO, the best we can hope is that he conquers it with minimal bloodshed. Western policy on this has failed absolutely. Bluff has been called, and the vacuum of US withdrawal from global leadership awaits. As if Putin was going to be stopped by sanctions when he'd moved 200,000 troops to the border. All priced in. I work with a programmer in Dnipro. He messaged this morning to say he could hear explosions and his city was under martial law. Dnipro is on the other side of the country to the contested region ffs, and is a civilian target, surely? No bullshit reason Russia can give is worth this.
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I suspect a 'large enough to be depressing' number of them think that Ukraine is actually us, though. I've heard that this is a thing that happens over there.
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Aye, even then Nothing wrong with a bit of passion in a discussion though, I'm guilty of it myself plenty of times. I have a lot of respect for the people I discuss things with on here
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"those who monitor 5G"... what?
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Always a pleasure to debate with you, my friend
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Absolutely agree with this. De-escalation would be the best outcome by far and away.
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Then I think we've come to some semblance of a position we can both appreciate. Ukraine is in Europe, trying to join NATO and the EU. It is a potential friend and ally, under threat from a historic oppressor. I would want us to defend them because I don't think someone as calculating as Putin actually has the balls for a proper head on fight with the US. Maybe I'm wrong, it's not me making the decision either way - but there are consequences to our relative inaction here, and we'll be seeing them for years. I also think Biden's presidency will be defined by this to some extent.
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They're saying they'll do anything possible to support, which at least reads as though it includes military support. At least it could be read that way. They 'regret every single life lost' which could also be read that way, and they want to integrate Ukraine into NATO and Europe, clearly stated. Have we done that?
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Psychopath doesn't mean he has no sense of self preservation. We have psychopaths in office around the world, running businesses, at the top end of society in many places. They don't get there by making suicide plays just to spite people. They get there by preying on weakness and not giving a damn about anything other than their own objectives. None of Putin's objectives will be "get Russia nuked".
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That is indeed a great statement. The smaller nations, who know they have the most to lose from a collapse of international order, making themselves heard - this is why it is so important to stand up for these norms, so that countries like Kenya, Estonia and Ukraine have a voice and the ability to govern themselves.
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I mean this thread is really a discussion about US politics IMO, it just changes name based on whoever is President. It was previously a Trump thread, no? I don't think Russia would commit to their own actual annihilation over a loss of face in a ground war with the US that they know for sure they wouldn't win.
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Estonia apparently prepared to step up for Western values, even if Europe and the US won't: We stand united with Ukraine. We will not walk away. We will continue to support you in every possible way. I praise the Ukrainian leaders who, despite constant provocations, remain calm and express willingness to solve this conflict peacefully. Russia must end the intolerable provocations and stop fuelling the conflict, which has been ongoing for eight years. Moscow should immediately and unconditionally withdraw its forces from Ukraine’s territory and its immediate vicinity. We strongly condemn all military and hybrid actions against Ukraine. We regret that despite diplomatic efforts, there are no signs of willingness to de-escalate - quite the opposite, [with] the buildup of Russian forces continues, including in Belarus. I align myself with everyone who wishes we had a way to secure peace through the force of diplomacy and dialogue. Indeed, it is a decisive moment in European history. President Putin will answer to future generations for his violent actions. As European and western leaders, we also have the responsibility to step up to our values [and] our commitment to a Europe that is united and at peace. We regret every single life lost. It is our duty to protect our common values and the democracy we all helped to build. A threat to Ukraine is a threat to the security of Europe. The minimum we can do is to step up our practical support to Ukraine, which Estonia has done and will continue to do. In the EU, we will deliver on a massive package of sanctions and do so swiftly and decisively. But most importantly we must keep the door to EU and Nato open for Ukraine and we must have concrete next steps for further cooperation and integration. We know you will continue to value democracy and remain on the path of reforms. Eventually we will welcome you as the member of the European Union - you belong in Europe. We support Ukraine’s independence, sovereignty and territorial integrity. We remain fully committed to the policy of non-recognition of illegal annexation of Ukraine’s territories. Ukraine has a right to defend its borders and independence and we continue helping Ukraine to build its military capabilities to stand against the aggression.
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I'm attempting to appraise our strategy of containment for Putin across several decades. This is where the failure is. If there are no good options now, it's because we failed in the build up. Our sanctions failed in Crimea, apparently. Otherwise we wouldn't be here, right? If Putin gave a shit about sanctions, this wouldn't have happened. I don't personally believe he'd bring nukes into play over an invasion into another country btw, he's not stupid. I think we could ground war that. More than that, I think he'd actually fall off his chair if we actually did it. If we had marched troops into Ukraine as a 'peacekeeping' force, what would he have done? Launched nukes? I doubt it.
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That wasn't the bluff - the bluff was the idea that the West had the resolve to stand up to him properly. He's priced in the sanctions man, clearly they're not a concern compared to taking Ukraine or he wouldn't be doing it.
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I don't want to die in a nuclear holocaust either fwiw. I just think he's called our bluff and won.
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In reality, as we all know, we wouldn't. I doubt we'd actually do anything up until he was against the German borders tbh.
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I do realise this, I know I'll never see it. Putin and his right wing cronies the world over are actively taking us away from it though. This shit might cost us an extra century in the long run, maybe more. I think the EU is arguably a bigger player than even the US, if it could just federalise properly. If it could manage that, Russia would be a minor player in a bigger whole. It's not your job to work this out either. Putin has taken decades to get to this point, are we really saying that over the course of the last 30 years, progress couldn't have been made to avoid escalations like this? Putin wanted Russia to be taken seriously as a nation, and not to have the US encroaching on its borders. He reached out many times to the West in the early years, and while I really don't like the guy, we more or less spat in his face. As I said though, if there was never anything that could have been done, then the west has been pretending to be much more powerful than it actually is. And that's the most dangerous part of all of this, that revelation.
