Who's had the easiest start?

[Happy Face 29]

Going off a point Toonpack failed to take from Leazes in another thread, these are the average positions of the opposition faced for each club so far this season...

 

Man U 7.7

Bolton 7.8

Sunderland 9.1

Blackburn 9.3

Stoke 9.3

Spurs 9.4

Wigan 9.4

Swansea 9.9

Arsenal 10.3

WBA 10.6

Fulham 10.7

Norwich 10.9

Everton 10.9

Wolves 11.1

Chelsea 11.2

Liverpool 11.5

Villa 12.4

Newcastle 13.2

Man City 13.3

QPR 13.4

 

 

Liverpool should be ashamed of their start looking at that and Villa should have made more of their start.

 

QPR could be heading for disaster without having made more of their fixtures.

 

Bolton have a valid excuse for their position it seems. Not so much the Mackems and Blackburn, but arguably so.

 

Depending on where you finish the average of your opponents is between 10 and 11 come the end of the season, so those in blue have played a reprasentative cross-section of the teams.

Edited November 1, 2012 by Happy Face

[bobbyshinton 59]

tell me you did not sit and work that out

[Happy Face 29]

tell me you did not sit and work that out

 

[peasepud 59]

Is that based on their position at the time of playing each team or the current positions?

[Happy Face 29]

Is that based on their position at the time of playing each team or the current positions?

 

Current position. I'm not some kind of geek who's gonna look at historical position

[ChezGiven 0]

Lacks meaning because there is no independent variable. You're trying to guage whether a team has made a good start by collecting information thats dependent on whether they have made a good start. The circularity makes it a weak measure.

[Toonpack 6932]

Is that based on their position at the time of playing each team or the current positions?

 

Current position. I'm not some kind of geek who's gonna look at historical position

 

Meaningless, the "hardness factor" for those we've played is presumably affected by the fact we've played them and not lost to them.

 

Using your logic. We beat Fulham, Fulham drew with Man City ergo our game against Man City should be easier than our game against Fulham.

 

I missed no point btw.

[Happy Face 29]

Lacks meaning because there is no independent variable. You're trying to guage whether a team has made a good start by collecting information thats dependent on whether they have made a good start. The circularity makes it a weak measure.

 

Thought you'd appreciate it, after all, every comparison in football is relative.

[Happy Face 29]

Is that based on their position at the time of playing each team or the current positions?

 

Current position. I'm not some kind of geek who's gonna look at historical position

 

Meaningless, the "hardness factor" for those we've played is presumably affected by the fact we've played them and not lost to them.

 

Using your logic. We beat Fulham, Fulham drew with Man City ergo our game against Man City should be easier than our game against Fulham.

 

I missed no point btw.

 

there's only a small window where its informative. After 1 or 2 games the sample is too small, as you approach 19 games everyone has roughly the same average. After 9 or 10 games though, single spurious results have a smaller overall impact as the league is taking shape and there's enough disparity in who's played who to distinguish between easier and harder starts.

Edited October 28, 2011 by Happy Face

[OTF 6258]

Lacks meaning because there is no independent variable. You're trying to guage whether a team has made a good start by collecting information thats dependent on whether they have made a good start. The circularity makes it a weak measure.

 

Exactly. The teajms we've played are ranked so poorly because we're just that effin good.

[peasepud 59]

If you base it on the positions teams finished last season (therefore removing the circulatory factor of our result having a bearing on their position) then you get an average of 11.33 for the Toon or basically on average weve played teams that are as good as we were last season.

 

Mackems meanwhile are along the same lines 11.22 average so have played teams slightly worse than they were last season.

[manc-mag 1]

It doesn't really matter tbh because those constantly referring to an 'easy start' are basically peddling an agenda which is based on a false premise, namely "everyone who expresses happiness at our the start to the season are deluded morons who think we're on for a CL finish and are forming an orderly queue to bum Mike Ashley into ecstasy". It's simply not the case at all - everyone accepts we've had a relatively favourable start by the fixture generator, and have expressed their positiveness in genuinely measured tones. What is irrefutably cause for credit however (and enjoyment) is that you can only beat the teams that are put in front of you, and Newcastle United teams as a rule will absolutely make it their business to lose to many of the 'inferior' teams in that starting sequence given the opportunity. The fact its our best league sequence in a decade or more (whatever the statistic is) is an absolute disgrace and a sobering reminder about why we don't win anything as a club.

 

We haven't rolled over, we've dug in and got some decent results. Fucking enjoy it for what it is for fucks sake.

[Happy Face 29]

"everyone who expresses happiness at our the start to the season are deluded morons who think we're on for a CL finish and are forming an orderly queue to bum Mike Ashley into ecstasy".

 

Not saying that at all by the way. Don't think I've had a pop at anyone for being positive, deluded or Ashley loving. I tend to stick to making my own point than characterising posters based on their opinions.

 

When I've said the fixtures have been kind (undisputed fact) I've been told by some posters (not all of course) that we're where we are on merit and I'm being negative...and yes, that Mike Ashley deserves credit for it...hence threads like "respect for MA?"

 

What is irrefutably cause for credit however (and enjoyment) is that you can only beat the teams that are put in front of you, and Newcastle United teams as a rule will absolutely make it their business to lose to many of the 'inferior' teams in that starting sequence given the opportunity.

 

Aye, it's brilliant.

 

Perhaps it's down to the improvement in the training facilities that it's been our most injury free start to a season in my memory.

[Guest CabayeAye]

To be fair, our fixtures have been piss easy. Arsenal, Stoke away, the away derby and Spurs are all gifts of fixtures. The m*ckems have had it much harder with Swansea, Norwich, West Brom and Bolton. All really high flying teams who no-one will beat.

 

s*nderland have just been really unlucky. Their squad on paper could easily finish in Europe. Much better team than us. We've just had lots of luck against poor teams.

Edited November 1, 2011 by CabayeAye

[Happy Face 29]

To be fair, our fixtures have been piss easy. Arsenal, Stoke away, the away derby and Spurs are all gifts of fixtures. The m*ckems have had it much harder with Swansea, Norwich, West Brom and Bolton. All really high flying teams who no-one will beat.

 

s*nderland have just been really unlucky. Their squad on paper could easily finish in Europe. Much better team than us. We've just had lots of luck against poor teams.

 

The only one of those games the mackems lost was Norwivh though. The ones you cherry picked also ignored chelsea, arsenal and Liverpool. They've not been beaten by anyone in the bottom half.

 

No-one is suggesting they're better than us, but they've had a harder start.

[McFaul 35]

Going off a point Toonpack failed to take from Leazes in another thread, these are the average positions of the opposition faced for each club so far this season...

 

Man U 7.7

Bolton 7.8

Sunderland 9.1

Blackburn 9.3

Stoke 9.3

Spurs 9.4

Wigan 9.4

Swansea 9.9

Arsenal 10.3

WBA 10.6

Fulham 10.7

Norwich 10.9

Everton 10.9

Wolves 11.1

Chelsea 11.2

Liverpool 11.5

Villa 12.4

Newcastle 13.2

Man City 13.3

QPR 13.4

 

 

Liverpool should be ashamed of their start looking at that and Villa should have made more of their start.

 

QPR could be heading for disaster without having made more of their fixtures.

 

Bolton have a valid excuse for their position it seems. Not so much the Mackems and Blackburn, but arguably so.

 

Depending on where you finish the average of your opponents is between 10 and 11 come the end of the season, so those in blue have played a reprasentative cross-section of the teams.

A fairer comparison would be positions these clubs finished in last season.

 

I'm not getting carried away me, we simply have to fuck up somewhere along the line, but I'm enjoying watching these arsehole Chelsea, Arsenal and Liverpool fans saying what the fuck are these doing up there. I won't mention Tottenham because as a smaller club they're not quite accepted in to the party yet, but we're definitely not. If we get to game 19 and we're still 3rd I think I'll be even more excited than I was in 1996. I just expected us to piss the league then, and we should have but this time, it's like expecting Santa to bring you an apple and orange, and he's got allsorts in there, pinball machine for J69, £2000 PaddyPower gift voucher for me, blow up doll and some poppers for DEADMAN etc....7 4 0 SEVEN FOUR ZERO if we beat Everton, and look even if we lose 5-0 at both Mancs, we can do Chelsea at home, pale shadow of themselves, then Norwich and Swansea 6 points there for us, that would be 10 4 2, surely we'd still be third with the dippers at home on the horizon at christmas.

[Guest alex]

I'm not getting carried away me, we simply have to fuck up somewhere along the line, but I'm enjoying watching these arsehole Chelsea, Arsenal and Liverpool fans saying what the fuck are these doing up there. I won't mention Tottenham because as a smaller club they're not quite accepted in to the party yet, but we're definitely not. If we get to game 19 and we're still 3rd I think I'll be even more excited than I was in 1996. I just expected us to piss the league then, and we should have but this time, it's like expecting Santa to bring you an apple and orange, and he's got allsorts in there, pinball machine for J69, £2000 PaddyPower gift voucher for me, blow up doll and some poppers for DEADMAN etc....7 4 0 SEVEN FOUR ZERO if we beat Everton, and look even if we lose 5-0 at both Mancs, we can do Chelsea at home, pale shadow of themselves, then Norwich and Swansea 6 points there for us, that would be 10 4 2, surely we'd still be third with the dippers at home on the horizon at christmas.

[Happy Face 29]

I can't see why a fairer comparison is where a team finished last season. Surely the current manager/squad/performance is a better reference than last year.

 

Latest...

 

Stoke 8.2

Bolton 8.4

Man U 9

Sunderland 9.0

Arsenal 9.2

Wolves 9.2

Blackburn 9.3

Spurs 9.6

WBA 9.6

Everton 9.7

Wigan 9.8

----------------

Chelsea 11.2

Liverpool 11.2

Swansea 11.4

Norwich 11.7

Fulham 12.0

QPR 12.6

Newcastle 12.8

Villa 12.9

Man City 13.1

 

 

Stoke now the team with the most difficult fixtures up to now (cos they played us)

[Guest alex]

Doesn't Stoke's position take into account the fact we've had an easy start?

[Happy Face 29]

Doesn't Stoke's position take into account the fact we've had an easy start?

 

Not much, we're only a small proportion of their start. There is a degree of circularity to it, but it does put things into context. And informs predictions.

 

For example, Man City and Man U at polar opposites. As barnstorming as Man City have been (and even though they pulverised Man U), I'd still go with Man U for the title cos they've still kept it tight despite their much more difficult start. Liverpool and Chelsea have no excuses for their relatively poor starts.

 

Villa are 9th, but look like they could be relegation bait in the long run.

[ChezGiven 0]

I'm just glad that the sort of drivel posted in this thread masquerading as statistics will be over with in a few weeks.

 

Our start has been relatively easy compared to other clubs. Statistically, it must be impossible for clubs to have the same type of start to the season, as measured by any ranking of difficulty.

 

You can't really make an overall judgement until we near the 19 game mark, until then you have to look at each game and judge whether we are doing well using e.g. a comparison to last season.

 

If you think about the fact that these sort of discussion are born from point scoring sessions with mackems on twitter, then you realise how pointless they are.

 

[Guest alex]

Doesn't Stoke's position take into account the fact we've had an easy start?

 

Not much

After I posted that I suspected that it should've been accompanied with a wink.

[Happy Face 29]

Our start has been relatively easy compared to other clubs. Statistically, it must be impossible for clubs to have the same type of start to the season, as measured by any ranking of difficulty.

 

Many are claiming otherwise. The Mackems, Stoke, Spurs and Arsenal are as difficult a run as anyone has had if you read some posts. I'm in complete agreement with what you've said here.

 

 

You can't really make an overall judgement until we near the 19 game mark, until then you have to look at each game and judge whether we are doing well using e.g. a comparison to last season.

 

If you think about the fact that these sort of discussion are born from point scoring sessions with mackems on twitter, then you realise how pointless they are.

 

After 19 games you can just look at the table and it'll be pretty indicative of how things are going to finish. We're not a patient bunch though. While people are making the claims above, right now, i was interested to see if (using an imperfect method) I could rank the starts of everyone in the league. Rest assured I'm not submitting it for peer review in the national journal of statistics.

[ChezGiven 0]

I am your peer review

 

 

[Park Life 70]

Tucked.