Eddie Howes Dross Relegating Mags vs brighton who I think are still chasing europe?

[Andrew 5525]

City seem to have got themselves back together somewhat, haven't lost in over a month, through to the cup final. I'm expecting them to go unbeaten to the end of the season now. Wolves are indeed the form team in the league but they have also played the 6 worst teams in the league one after another.

Chelsea will lose to liverpool, they've also got us and forest in the run in all capable to taking points from one another but any loss in that run in is devastating for them.

 

Forests run in is pretty easy but they've also been dropping off pretty hard and I wonder if its just got a bit beyond them by now. 

For my money it is Us and City in 3rd and 4th with Chelsea and Forest potentially having a play off on the final day of the season.

[toonotl 3600]

Yep. Good points. I don't disagree with anything here. I was more so addressing the idea a few pages back that we'll need to win the rest of our games. Not only is that very unlikely to be true in general. It's actually pretty unlikely to be true even after this weekend since the teams around us are not exactly impervious to dropping points.

 

Taking that into consideration, I did say I think City are favourites against Wolves. It is true that Wolves haven't beaten anyone of particular note. But you can only beat who is in front of you and I think we very often see teams in good form who "haven't beaten anyone important" then play someone "important" and beat them too. Confidence cannot be underestimated imo. It happened to us with Bournemouth earlier in the season from memory. They hadn't beaten anyone significant. We drew confidence from that here on the forum with the usual sausage waving culprits. Probably myself included. And then they fuckin hammered us. (Although I could be misremembering and can't be arsed to look it up. So I recommend nobody else look it up either.  ) Anyway, as I said, I'm still backing City to win, but it isn't a fait accompli in my mind. None of our competitors for CL football are untouchable, including City (although they are certainly returning to form that can't be denied).

 

Anyway, all things considered, I completely agree with the general prognosis. So I'm just being a pedant.  Us and City are favourites now for 3rd and 4th. Chelsea and Forest competing for 5th in a basic competition to see who can tailspin their way out of the season with the best semblance of grace. And Villa are basically out of it short of a flawless run or Chelsea & Forest both collapsing completely to help them out.

[Toonpack 12115]

Fulham shouldn't be on the beach, they're 8th and that will likely get Europe (even 9th might).

[toonotl 3600]

I didn't look up their position to be honest. No mark club with no ambition. There's a chance nobody at the club even knows what place they're in. They'd be assuming about 12th based on the lack of vibes.

[Gemmill 52480]

Aye I have ZERO faith in Fulham pulling out results at this stage of the season. Them and Brighton have been playing hot potato with 8th spot for weeks now. 

[wykikitoon 23738]

I hate these media darling cunts. Expect a loss with Alan Smith pumping his cock like Arnie in an action movie. 

[Dr Gloom 24254]

Win our next two games and it’s all but done tbh 

[Holden McGroin 7968]

Get beat in both and we are probably out of it. 😀

[OTF 8659]

We're 5 points behind Arsenal, if we win all of our remaining games we'd be likely to finish second.

 

30/04: Arsenal v PSG CL SFI

04/05: Arsenal v Bournemouth

08/05: PSG v Arsenal CL SFII

12/05: Liverpool v Arsenal

19/05: Newcastle Utd v Arsenal

26/05: Southampton v Arsenal

 

I don't think that will happen, but I'm backing us to finish top 4, not having to rely on that bonus spot. Hopefully Joelinton is OK to play.

 

 

[Holden McGroin 7968]

I’d be more concerned looking down than up.

 

If Bogey team Brighton beat us then the Chelsea game is squeaky bum time. If we don’t win that then going to Arsenal to get 3 points is not a good place to be in. Statistically winning 4 times (any team) v Arsenal in a season is a massive rarity.

 

Edited 7 hours ago by Holden McGroin

[Craig 7339]

Brighton have gone off the boil IMO. Much prefer to be playing them now than a month or so ago. 

I think we'll get at least a point here but I reckon we'll sneak it - going for 2-1.

Share some sentiments about the importance - any loss at this stage of the season is going feel heightened given there's only a handful of matches left. That said, this isn't the important one - that's the Chelsea match. We win that and we finish top 5 easily.

There should be none of this "4 must-win games" panicky bullshit. Hardly surprising from CT mind you.

[OTF 8659]

15 minutes ago, Holden McGroin said:

I’d be more concerned looking down than up.

 

If Bogey team Brighton beat us then the Chelsea game is squeaky bum time. If we don’t win that then going to Arsenal to get 3 points is not a good place to be in. Statistically winning 4 times (any team) v Arsenal in a season is a massive rarity.

 

Obviously. I was pointing out that we don't need to win all of our remaining games.

 

I agree that the Brighton game will really take the pressure off the Chelsea one. We're going to bust a gut to win at "the Amex". All of our players will be properly motivated for it, for team, personal and financial reasons, I just hope we have the patience to not try to score from every play. We've seen our application be almost perfect in huge games this season (both Arsenal cup semis and the final against Liverpool) so I have full belief that once again we'll be at our best with not a hint of any sort of complacency.

[Holden McGroin 7968]

I don’t think we have any chance of finishing second. The Emirates game is a banker Arsenal win for me.

 

if we can get a point at Brighton I’d be delighted. Chelsea game is huge. They are back on form.

 

edited.

Edited 7 hours ago by Holden McGroin

[Gemmill 52480]

25 minutes ago, Holden McGroin said:

I’d be more concerned looking down than up.

 

If Bogey team Brighton beat us then the Chelsea game is squeaky bum time. If we don’t win that then going to Arsenal to get 3 points is not a good place to be in. Statistically winning 4 times (any team) v Arsenal in a season is a massive rarity.

 

 

The probability of beating a team 4 times in any given season improves dramatically when you've already beaten them 3 times.

[Gemmill 52480]

1 minute ago, Holden McGroin said:

I don’t think we have any chance of finishing fourth.

 

Eh?

 

This is absolutely ridiculous patter. 

 

[Toonpack 12115]

6 minutes ago, Holden McGroin said:

 

if we can get a point at Brighton I’d be delighted. Chelsea game is huge. They are back on form.

 

They drew 2-2 at Ipswich, beat Fulham 2-1 with two goals in last 10 minutes and squeaked past Everton 1-0. That's not any sort of form I'm concerned about.

[Gemmill 52480]

 

"Back on form". 

 

We're watching a man wet himself in real time. 

[Holden McGroin 7968]

 

14 minutes ago, Gemmill said:

 

Eh?

 

This is absolutely ridiculous patter. 

 

 

I meant second. 

Edited 7 hours ago by Holden McGroin

[Holden McGroin 7968]

2 minutes ago, Gemmill said:

 

"Back on form". 

 

We're watching a man wet himself in real time. 

Chelsea not Brighton.

 

Chelsea unbeaten in 5 in the league (albeit against poor opposition)

[Holden McGroin 7968]

8 minutes ago, Toonpack said:

 

They drew 2-2 at Ipswich, beat Fulham 2-1 with two goals in last 10 minutes and squeaked past Everton 1-0. That's not any sort of form I'm concerned about.

True but still unbeaten in 5 and if Cole Palmer gets back into any form then it’ll be interesting.

[Toonpack 12115]

1 minute ago, Holden McGroin said:

True but still unbeaten in 5 and if Cole Palmer gets back into any form then it’ll be interesting.

We are better than them, so long as we turn up.

[OTF 8659]

6 minutes ago, Holden McGroin said:

I don’t think we have any chance of finishing fourth. The Emirates game is a banker Arsenal win for me.

 

if we can get a point at Brighton I’d be delighted. Chelsea game is huge. They are back on form.

 

It will depend what has happened in the CL and against Liverpool for them.

 

Also, Chelsea are not really back on form, their xg has been dropping (it's under their average for the last 5 games). They are conceding less than they were earlier in the season. They've just had a run of easyish games.

 

We score 1.91 goals per game (at home that goes up to 2.24) and concede 1.29 (at home 1.12). We've won 4 of our last 5 games and our last 5 at home. They score 1.74 goals a game (1.65 away) and concede 1.18 (1.35 away). They've won 3 of their last 5 (Everton, Fulham, Spurs) and

drew the other two (Ipswich and Brentford). Of their last 5 away PL games they lost 3, won 1 and drew 1.

[Craig 7339]

Mentally I've got us down for beating Chelsea & Everton, getting a draw at Brighton and Arsenal likely to finally get one over on us this season. So 7 points to come. 

Did i read over the weekend that someone claimed the next 4 games are the biggest we've had for a long, long time?! 6 weeks after we won our first domestic trophy in 70 years?! Dear me ....

[Holden McGroin 7968]

3 minutes ago, OTF said:

 

It will depend what has happened in the CL and against Liverpool for them.

 

Also, Chelsea are not really back on form, their xg has been dropping (it's under their average for the last 5 games). They are conceding less than they were earlier in the season. They've just had a run of easyish games.

 

We score 1.91 goals per game (at home that goes up to 2.24) and concede 1.29 (at home 1.12). We've won 4 of our last 5 games and our last 5 at home. They score 1.74 goals a game (1.65 away) and concede 1.18 (1.35 away). They've won 3 of their last 5 (Everton, Fulham, Spurs) and

drew the other two (Ipswich and Brentford). Of their last 5 away PL games they lost 3, won 1 and drew 1.

xG