Rayvin

Yeah that sounds like a fair assessment to me.

Fine.

Although if it delays or softens Brexit, it gets a gold star from me.

Wait, what? I'm not worrying about any of this I was simply making the point that they won't let the economy fall apart. This whole thing isn't panicking me at all, my life has been a continuous train wreck for the past 2 years anyway, there's not much COVID-19 can do to me, to be perfectly frank. I think it'll blow over after a year or so without any particularly earth shattering long term consequences. Because the system has to perpetuate - we have no other models to move to.

2008 was a recession in my book, but it's been a while since I really looked at it. I just think in this era of boundless apocalyptic possibilities, collapse means collapse, and not shrinking But look, we don't know how bad this is yet anyway - but if the power stays on and the food keeps coming, then for me it's just a depression at worst, and one we'll probably bounce back from fairly quickly (within 5 years), without even the need for a world war this time. The only reason 2008 dragged on was because of austerity.

Well, tbf, you and I have wildly different definitions of the word "collapse"

Ok so you're talking about a depression. Ok yes, it'll be annoying for a while indeed, and life will be shit. No arguments from me there. I suppose the US will act as a control group in all of this. I think their economy will bounce back quicker if they take the hit as Trump wants them too, but I don't think it'll be worth the cost in lives.

I want to stress as well for the avoidance of doubt, that I think the Tories have handled this as well as they could have, with the exception of their initial dithering. I'm not criticising them - I'm just saying that there's a line in the sand somewhere on all of this. Western civilisation is not going to be allowed to be brought down by a virus with a mortality rate of 3%.

You think they'll let the entire economy fall apart? Are we getting wires crossed here or something - when you say 'fall apart', do you mean a depression? Cos if so then ok, I can see your point but it isn't a collapse. If you mean capitalism is going to be on its knees to save a few old people, you're barking up the wrong tree entirely. What they've done so far is all well and good, but it hasn't yet started really and seriously ruining the economy. I just read that we're going to have to prepare for powercuts. That's a step up in the economic stakes IMO, especially with everyone working from home. Then food next, presumably. They will hang on as long as they can, but the scales will tip in the end. The devastation caused by a total economic collapse will be far worse than the loss of even a million or so people. I'm not a Tory by any stretch of the imagination, and even I can see that. So you can bet your bottom dollar that they can too. Trump, bizarrely, kind of has the right of this - for the wrong reasons, granted, but there is a point somewhere in all of this where the lives lost are not as significant as the damage done/future generations lost to economic collapse. They won't let it come to the latter. Honestly, I'm not even sure they'll have to make that choice anyway - curve flattens, they lift lockdowns in essential areas and ease the economy back in. That's clearly the idea at least.

I'm not saying he isn't, but we aren't in total economic collapse yet - the stakes will change if we get anywhere remotely close to it.

They can send people back to work and lift the lockdowns. That's how they stop it. COVID-19 isn't causing the economic problems on its own, our response to it is. It could and almost certainly would cause a healthcare crisis on its own, but even that wouldn't be as bad as total economic collapse. If we get the latter, society is done. It's 2 days without food, I believe, for the wheels to come off society and Mad Max to start looking like a documentary. They will not let that happen, they just won't. They'll take as many hits, as many companies going under as they can realistically afford to do, but there is a red line somewhere - once we hit that, the lockdown gets lifted to save the majority of the economy, no matter how many lives it costs.

I agree with you. I just don't see this economic Armageddon happening, mostly because at some point the scales will tip and they will absolutely be ok with letting people die to preserve the 'actual structures'. They're not going to throw the global economic system under a bus for COVID-19 and a few hundred thousand dead. They've thrown more lives away in wars for a lot less. The world will bounce back, there will be lipservice paid to learning lessons, but honestly they're not going to risk a total economic collapse. It just won't happen. I don't know why anyone thinks these right wing governments, motivated by money and power, are going to risk both of those things for the sake of human compassion.

If it gets anywhere near what that article is outlining, they'll let the elderly die. Even here.

I'm still not sure how much damage this is really going to do in the end. Has anyone tried forecasting it?

People always say the right "are definitely fucked this time" and honestly, I just don't believe it anymore. They're basically invincible. I can't even bring myself to hope that you're right. I'll be amazed if Trump doesn't win, especially since it now appears clear that Joe "the rapist" Biden is not going to be able to unify the moderates and the left. The left are going for him with venom, and it's depressing as fuck.

Trump is laying the groundwork for him to claim that he tried to open the economy again but that individual states elected to ignore him. Probably democrat governed ones, which will also be referenced. The death toll will be dismissed by saying how much bigger the US population is than Spain and Italy, and how "you should see how people over there are suffering because of their economy, their whole economy has collapsed and it's very sad, and they wish they had done what we did, we were very strong, no one did it better, etc"

I think Trump gets re-elected still. He'll just claim the US was better than everyone else, their economy is stronger, that the rest of the world wishes that they'd listened to him etc. Same as always, he'll lie, people will challenge it only in anti-trump circles, and his base will just believe him.

Zoom seems to be the most widely used within publishing, everyone is on it. In other news, the NHS is now apparently desperate trying to source scrubs and other supplies from non-NHS suppliers, including Medical fetishwear companies... https://www.newsweek.com/medical-fetish-site-donates-stock-nhs-1494951

The Prime Minister should be tested indeed, as he is a key worker in the whole situation. I have an issue with Prince Charles getting one though since he is an irrelevance. I do think it's fair for Johnson to take some flack for being part of successive governments which failed to properly fund the system that is taking such good care of him.

It'll be loosely based on repeating/familiar phrases taken from your search history

No arguments on that front. Trump has been hilariously bad. Well, it would be hilarious if not for people dying.

It's not just on him though - they were in decline anyway. Hegemony is a short lived drug these days it seems. Europe would have been a great partner to get in with for the new era...

Well fucking said.

Can we assume that this is down to gig economy fallout?

Is that rate of increase (or something) or overall totals? Rate of increase wouldn't be that scary, but if that's the actual sum totals of US unemployment over time then fucking hell.