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As a matter of interest, are you paying a penalty for cashing out early?  ie. are the odds when cashing out shorter than they should be?

 

And, on average, what are the odds on your whole accumulator vs what you're getting when you cash out?

 

I could defo make an argument that Fish's strategy is more profitable than letting it ride but I fear the Quiff might actually have an aneurysm. ;)

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How will you manage to be in more than two places at the same time 

Cheers, usually pick 2 from  each league but only had Everton from the Prem, wolves and the Mackems game, Blackburn 3 others and the hartlepool game. It's only took is a season and a half to finally g

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:lol: Sorry.


"Would you agree that profitable sports betting is all about making better decisions than the market to the point where you can more than beat the bookies' vig?"

 

If the above argument is correct, every time @The Fish outsmarts the market to the point where he beats the vig (even if it's new vig) he increases his expected value.


In reality, he's probably just enhancing his losses a little bit with the extra juice, but that theory is sound for a winning gambler.

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9 minutes ago, TheGingerQuiff said:

You'd let the bookie off with £120 because you can't hold your nerve for 10 minutes. Generous lad!

This isn't how Maths works, though I daresay the Maths is on your side in that example.

 

(I think Liverpool need to score more than 66% of the time for that cashout to make sense).

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35 minutes ago, TheGingerQuiff said:

I've got a bet on with two mackems at my former company, that we'll finish higher in our league than they do theirs. One doesn't even bet but felt my offer was too good to turn down, both ridiculed me as deluded. Confident.

I'd cash out :D

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1 hour ago, TheGingerQuiff said:

Or just one of the teams to score >60%? Given the cashout offer is 40%?

The breakeven point is 100% of £80 or 40% of £200.  In reality, it's a little more as the other team could score another equaliser.

 

No real idea how to quantify that which is why I don't bet on sports. ;) 

 

ETA:  So, you are correct, 60% if you don't consider the chance of another equaliser.

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When the fun stops, stop.

 

I put £2.50 on the Euromillions £168m jackpot on Friday, but some Spaniard pocketed that. Worth it for the daydream of what we'd do with the money for a bit though.

 

I'd pay people to follow you lot around with whatever annoys you most.

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4 hours ago, The Fish said:

When the fun stops, stop.

 

I put £2.50 on the Euromillions £168m jackpot on Friday, but some Spaniard pocketed that. Worth it for the daydream of what we'd do with the money for a bit though.

 

I'd pay people to follow you lot around with whatever annoys you most.

How will you manage to be in more than two places at the same time :D

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