Europe --- In or Out

[Christmas Tree 3997]

16 minutes ago, ewerk said:

So the government were lying about the meaningful vote?

 

I suppose that depends on your interpretation of meaningful.

[Christmas Tree 3997]

15 minutes ago, Renton said:

 

Yeah, I get that. But two things. First, the draft agreement says "unless and until". Not time limited and EU won't agree to make it so, because then it's not a backstop. Secondly, the backstop isn't going to change the situation. The issue will still be there in 3, 5, 10 years time. Technology can't solve all the legal and security issues. 

 

I think it’s fair to say that Decembers various paragraphs on the backstop are defunct which is why we are where we are, looking for new scenarios that will replace them.

 

As for the 3, 5 or 10 years, May was pretty adamant today that chequers had not been discarded by Brussels and that the future trade deal would solve this.

 

Im not going to get into a back and forth with you on this because I know your position, but I honestly think that the border situation is being made out to be a far bigger deal than it is.

 

Something like 2% of stuff arriving from third countries to us is checked and the delay is about 2 minutes. I’m fairly sure technology, trusted traders etc could be used to minimise a lot of the checks.

[Renton 17767]

20 minutes ago, Christmas Tree said:

 

I think it’s fair to say that Decembers various paragraphs on the backstop are defunct which is why we are where we are, looking for new scenarios that will replace them.

 

As for the 3, 5 or 10 years, May was pretty adamant today that chequers had not been discarded by Brussels and that the future trade deal would solve this.

 

Im not going to get into a back and forth with you on this because I know your position, but I honestly think that the border situation is being made out to be a far bigger deal than it is.

 

Something like 2% of stuff arriving from third countries to us is checked and the delay is about 2 minutes. I’m fairly sure technology, trusted traders etc could be used to minimise a lot of the checks.

 

You're completely understating the amount of goods checked and time taken. But regardless, you're not taking into account the volume and nature of trade. It works for Canada because there is plenty of time for checks on shipped containers and the goods don't form part of JiT supply chains. 

 

But Ireland is a land border, and the channel uses Ro Ro ferries. Completely different situation. A lot of trade is in food which absolutely has to be checked for phytosanitary standards at border inspection posts which don't now even exist. And the volume is colossal, magnitudes more than Canada. Can you see the difference? Does it make sense to you?

 

I get you don't take my word for it. But why the fuck you won't listen to trade experts or CEOs of affected companies is beyond me. 

Edited October 22, 2018 by Renton

[Christmas Tree 3997]

24 minutes ago, Renton said:

 

You're completely understating the amount of goods checked and time taken. But regardless, you're not taking into account the volume and nature of trade. It works for Canada because there is plenty of time for checks on shipped containers and the goods don't form part of JiT supply chains. 

 

But Ireland is a land border, and the channel uses Ro Ro ferries. Completely different situation. A lot of trade is in food which absolutely has to be checked for phytosanitary standards at border inspection posts which don't now even exist. And the volume is colossal, magnitudes more than Canada. Can you see the difference? Does it make sense to you?

 

I get you don't take my word for it. But why the fuck you won't listen to trade experts or CEOs of affected companies is beyond me. 

 

See, the way you write comes across as though we are going to inspect every lorry carrying food. That’s simply not the case. The vast majority of goods will never be checked even if we left with no deal.

 

 

[Monkeys Fist 38756]

1 hour ago, Christmas Tree said:

 

See, the way you write …blah, blah, blahty-blah.

 

 

[Renton 17767]

6 hours ago, Christmas Tree said:

 

See, the way you write comes across as though we are going to inspect every lorry carrying food. That’s simply not the case. The vast majority of goods will never be checked even if we left with no deal.

 

 

Food is very heavily checked actually. Richard North, a fervent leaver who worked in a senior role on a border inspection post, has discussed this in length. 

 

But forget him, what dies he know? Well maybe look at the governments own warnings and more importantly their actions, turning the M20 into a lorry park. You claim that 2 mins delay is insignificant, but even this slight delay will cause tail backs of 20 miles, according to the port of Dover. You're basically saying it will be alright in the face of overwhelming evidence to the contrary from people who understand the issues.

 

There's a reason May wants in the single market for goods and agriculture and doesn't want Canada. She knows it will kill trade and farming in this country. 

[ewerk 26335]

9 hours ago, Christmas Tree said:

 

I suppose that depends on your interpretation of meaningful.

Meaningful as in the form described to Dominic Grieve when he voted against his own amendment.

[ewerk 26335]

9 hours ago, Christmas Tree said:

 

I think it’s fair to say that Decembers various paragraphs on the backstop are defunct which is why we are where we are, looking for new scenarios that will replace them.

 

Why is it defunct? It was clearly agreed to by both sides and the EU are certainly not going to let it slide. Any backstop will be on the basis of what was agreed in December.

9 hours ago, Christmas Tree said:

Im not going to get into a back and forth with you on this because I know your position, but I honestly think that the border situation is being made out to be a far bigger deal than it is.

As someone who lives 20 miles from the border are you really trying to say that you know better than I do about the importance of the Irish border? Are you really that arrogant?

[ewerk 26335]

8 hours ago, Christmas Tree said:

 

See, the way you write comes across as though we are going to inspect every lorry carrying food. That’s simply not the case. The vast majority of goods will never be checked even if we left with no deal.

 

 

Every consignment of food from animal origin is checked on arrival in the EU.

 

Also, we don't have anywhere near enough vets to carry out the required certifications. 

Edited October 23, 2018 by ewerk

[Monkeys Fist 38756]

1 hour ago, ewerk said:

Every consignment of food from animal origin is checked on arrival in the EU.

 

Also, we don't have anywhere near enough vets to carry out the required certifications. 

Pretty sure I read an article recently which said all ones we do have that are qualified for it are foreign nationals 

 

Edit; Here it is.

[Alex 30396]

 

[Meenzer 14051]

 

I do wish these Brexiteers would stop talking Britain down.

 

[ewerk 26335]

15 minutes ago, Alex said:

 

 I was thinking of that exact song this morning when reading his posts.

[ewerk 26335]

1 minute ago, Meenzer said:

 

I do wish these Brexiteers would stop talking Britain down.

 

He's not returning production to the UK until we abolish corporation tax and give companies the ability to fire at will.

Thank god there's someone speaking up for the little man against those faceless bureaucrats in Brussels.

[Sonatine 9991]

His hoovers are shit anyway, my mam had 2 and they were both fucking useless.

[ewerk 26335]

Quote

The EU will offer British Prime Theresa May a UK-wide customs union as a way around the Irish backstop issue, but it will have to be negotiated beyond the Withdrawal Agreement as a separate treaty, RTÉ News understands.

The Withdrawal Agreement will contain a specific commitment to a UK-wide customs arrangement by way of a legal article, but that commitment will say that a formal EU-UK customs union will require a separate agreement.

However, the EU, and the Irish Government still insist that a Northern Ireland-specific backstop remains in place, even if a separate UK-wide customs arrangement is negotiated.

London has long sought a UK-wide customs arrangement as a way to avoid customs checks on both the Irish land border and along the Irish Sea.

Re-worked elements of the draft Withdrawal Treaty have been seen by RTÉ News.

They appear to be in conflict with the Mrs May’s demand that the Withdrawal Agreement contain a UK-wide customs backstop that is "legally-binding" and temporary, and her position that a Northern Ireland-specific backstop remains "unacceptable".

It is not clear that London will be content with a legal "commitment" to arrange a UK-wide customs backstop if it has to be negotiated as a stand-alone agreement that sits outside the Withdrawal Agreement.

Yesterday in the House of Commons, Mrs May outlined four steps that the UK was demanding in order for an agreement to be reached, including "the commitment to a temporary UK-EU joint customs territory legally binding, so the Northern Ireland only proposal is no longer needed."

RTÉ News understands that the promise of a UK-wide customs backstop will feature prominently near the top of a re-drafted Withdrawal Agreement, and that previous references to Northern Ireland being part of the EU's "customs territory" will be dropped.

Northern Ireland will be referred to in more oblique terms further down the text, according to a draft.

However, the text will say that in the event of the Northern-Ireland specific backstop coming into effect, a separate annexe will set out how that would work.

That annexe will refer to the EU's Union Customs Code (UCC) applying in Northern Ireland, according to a draft text.

These drafts could change further when negotiations resume.

Customs remains the most sensitive issue in the negotiations, with the UK regarding any customs differential between Northern Ireland and the UK as unacceptable, and tantamount to having a customs border along the Irish Sea.

The European Commission has been attempting to "de-dramatise" the issue, by suggesting customs checks on goods between Britain and Northern Ireland could be electronically pre-cleared away from ports, and through the use of scanning and barcode technology.

While the EU has shifted its position to accommodating a UK-wide customs arrangement, it seems certain it will not be agreed and finalised within the Withdrawal treaty.

Officials say such an agreement would be highly complex, and would take some time to negotiate.

"That's complicated," one EU source told RTÉ News. "It's much more complicated than it sounds.

"The first point is the legal basis.  You can't do it under Article 50. That's always been our stance. The second point is the practical aspects. It's very complicated to work out all the details in a short period of time. These things need to be negotiated properly."

The EU will want to know which part of the Union Customs Code acquis (body of law) the UK is willing to swallow in order to be part of such a customs union.

In particular, it would have to be decided whether or not the UK will seek to negotiate, sign and implement its own trade deals, or whether it will still avail of free trade agreements (FTAs) the EU currently has with third countries.

The EU will also need to know whether, as it continues to negotiate its own trade deals around the world, it is doing so on behalf of 27 or 28 countries.

The other problem is that the only off-the-shelf arrangement the EU operates, aside from its own, is a customs union with Turkey.

The EU-Turkey customs union does not absolve Ankara of having to carry out checks for regulatory compliance.

Furthermore, Turkey must abide by EU-third country trade agreements, but not in a reciprocal way.

In the case of the EU-Canada trade deal (CETA), Turkey has to allow Canadian goods into its market on the same terms as they enter the EU, but Turkish goods are not given the same privileged access to the Canadian market.

"The EU-Turkey Customs Union has lots of issues," says the source. "Those are bound to be raised. But it's very difficult right now under the pressure of time, in the current context of the [Withdrawal Agreement] negotiations."

The other problem is regulatory compliance.

In order to avoid checks for industrial goods, live animals and food products on the Irish border, there would have to be alignment of the EU's single market rules.

However, a UK-wide backstop does not address that issue, implying that some kinds of checks would be required between GB and Northern Ireland.

EU officials were taken aback by Mrs May's very public new red lines, as there was an expectation that any new ideas would have been presented in private by the British negotiating team, who had been operating with their EU counterparts in highly secretive conditions in the run up to the last summit.

EU sources say member states will want to see firm details of the proposal Theresa May outlined in the House of Commons.

It is expected that the British negotiating team, lead by Mrs May's Europe adviser Olly Robbins, will return to Brussels shortly present to details of the new UK demands.

Pretty much the only option left on the table as far as I can see.

[Christmas Tree 3997]

25 minutes ago, ewerk said:

Pretty much the only option left on the table as far as I can see.

 

Basically what I told you yesterday, along with the re-drafting of the December agreement and oh look, even technology and pre border checks

[Christmas Tree 3997]

On 27/11/2017 at 17:59, Christmas Tree said:

 

The very simplistic  version as time is precious.

 

We have a bespoke deal (that the PM has talked about), that allows us to form a new customs union with the EU. Turkey has one and there are no barriers on products except agriculture. Ours would include agriculture.

 

This is why it’s pointless discussing Ireland because this scenario would continue with no border.

 

This is what will happen and how the Ireland issue will be resolved.

 

 

Oh, this as well

[ewerk 26335]

Have you read any of that article? It states that the NI specific backstop must be included, you said yesterday it was 'defunct'.

It also says that the UK-EU customs border will be negotiated after the withdrawal agreement, you said it would be in the WA.

So basically nothing like you said.

[Christmas Tree 3997]

6 minutes ago, ewerk said:

Have you read any of that article? It states that the NI specific backstop must be included, you said yesterday it was 'defunct'.

It also says that the UK-EU customs border will be negotiated after the withdrawal agreement, you said it would be in the WA.

So basically nothing like you said.

 

Stick with me and I’ll keep you right.

[ewerk 26335]

1. Talk shit.

2. Get caught out talking shit.

3. Pretend that step 2 never happened.

Do you Brexiters all get a handbook with these instructions?

[Meenzer 14051]

No, because that would constitute listening to experts.

[Christmas Tree 3997]

58 minutes ago, ewerk said:

1. Talk shit.

2. Get caught out talking shit.

3. Pretend that step 2 never happened.

Do you Brexiters all get a handbook with these instructions?

 

 

I told you about a Turkey styled custom union a year ago. And yesterday when you asked I explained about the U.K. wide backstop and that what was agreed in December was being re-written. Today you said it wasn’t.

 

[Renton 17767]

We've been relegated to a Turkey deal then. Seriously, this is the shittest outcome imaginable. Unbelievable. 

[Christmas Tree 3997]

9 minutes ago, Renton said:

We've been relegated to a Turkey deal then. Seriously, this is the shittest outcome imaginable. Unbelievable. 

 

No, we haven’t.