Europe --- In or Out

[Dr Gloom 20150]

you can't assume the berxiteers will suddenly assume power and it it will all transition smoothly. i think we're looking at a political crisis myself.

 

no one has the first clue how exiting the EU will go down, it could be absolute chaos. you'd need a strong government in such a situation, where in reality we'll be faced with exactly the opposite, which is why people are predicting a snap general election.

[Renton 18048]

But that's not how our system works. No government is going to call a general election to change party leader.

We are in unprecedented times. I can imagine the eurosceptic tories supporting a vote of no confidence for instance. I don't think you grasp what a mess we're in.

[Christmas Tree 4003]

 

by a united party, mid term. not in a general election.

Brown & Blair United

 

Again though, choosing a party leader is nothing to do with a general election.

[Christmas Tree 4003]

you can't assume the berxiteers will suddenly assume power and it it will all transition smoothly. i think we're looking at a political crisis myself.

 

no one has the first clue how exiting the EU will go down, it could be absolute chaos. you'd need a strong government in such a situation, where in reality we'll be faced with exactly the opposite, which is why people are predicting a snap general election.

ITS AGAINST THE LAW TO HAVE A SNAP GENERAL ELECTION!

[Renton 18048]

Do you have to be? I know, in the past, members of the Lords have been in the Cabinet.

He's not a lord either is he? And there's no coalition between Tories and ukip. Can't see it personally, to most sane reasonable people Farage is political turd.

[Renton 18048]

ITS AGAINST THE LAW TO HAVE A SNAP GENERAL ELECTION!

THE LAW CAN BE CHANGED WITH A MAJORITY COMMONS VOTE.

[Christmas Tree 4003]

We are in unprecedented times. I can imagine the eurosceptic tories supporting a vote of no confidence for instance. I don't think you grasp what a mess we're in.

Tories will not bring down a Tory government. They may well mount a leadership election though.

 

As for the "mess we are in". Why not wait til the votes are counted.

 

I think you'll find it will very much be business as usual. I appreciate though you do have a tendency to perceive outcomes far worse than they ever are.

[Christmas Tree 4003]

THE LAW CAN BE CHANGED WITH A MAJORITY COMMONS VOTE.

MP's have four more cushy years in Government. They are not going to vote themselves out.

[Renton 18048]

Fuck me CT you are blind. You think it's going to be business as usual, economically and politically. Righto.

[Dr Gloom 20150]

Brown & Blair United

 

Again though, choosing a party leader is nothing to do with a general election.

 

the labour party was united at that time, despite the resentment between the outgoing and incoming leaders, and i know that choosing a party leader is nothing to do with the general election. the point is it was a smooth transition and brown was able to govern until the election despite not having a mandate to govern from the general public because he had the widespread support of the party. this situation is completely different. you're looking at a a period of months and possibly years spent trying to negotiate our EU exit. all the while, we'll be beset with market turmoil. osborne has warned of an immediate post-brexit emergency budget of tax rises and increased austerity. there are all kind of unknowns and i don't see how such a divided party will be able to easily govern through a prolonged period of uncertainty. do you?

Edited June 17, 2016 by Dr Gloom

[Dr Gloom 20150]

business as usual

[Christmas Tree 4003]

Fuck me CT you are blind. You think it's going to be business as usual, economically and politically. Righto.

I do yes.

 

The bank of England's worst forecast is the mildest recession in the last 60 years. We've had plenty of recessions in that time and business has carried on as normal.

 

Some establishments such as the deusche bank are even forecasting that England may become a safe haven as the eurozone continues to fall apart.

 

Politically, the people will have spoken. It's then upto the government of the day to carry out those wishes. I do think there will be a challenge to Cameron, but the party will then vote for the new leader. (Probably Theresa May). Gove and Boris will be given jobs and life will get back to normal, just outside the EU (after two years notice).

[Christmas Tree 4003]

 

the labour party was united at that time, despite the resentment between the outgoing and incoming leaders, and i know that choosing a party leader is nothing to do with the general election. the point is it was a smooth transition and brown was able to govern until the election despite not having a mandate to govern from the general public because he had the widespread support of the party. this situation is completely different. you're looking at a a period of months and possibly years spent trying to negotiate our EU exit. all the while, we'll be beset with market turmoil. osborne has warned of an immediate post-brexit emergency budget of tax rises and increased austerity. there are all kind of unknowns and i don't see how such a divided party will be able to easily govern through a prolonged period of uncertainty. do you?

I do, because they will have picked a new leader and united behind that person. (Labour take note).

[Renton 18048]

I do yes.

 

The bank of England's worst forecast is the mildest recession in the last 60 years. We've had plenty of recessions in that time and business has carried on as normal.

 

Some establishments such as the deusche bank are even forecasting that England may become a safe haven as the eurozone continues to fall apart.

 

Politically, the people will have spoken. It's then upto the government of the day to carry out those wishes. I do think there will be a challenge to Cameron, but the party will then vote for the new leader. (Probably Theresa May). Gove and Boris will be given jobs and life will get back to normal, just outside the EU (after two years notice).

Got a link to this mildest recession in 60 years? A reputable one I mean?

[Renton 18048]

I do, because they will have picked a new leader and united behind that person. (Labour take note).

:lol:

[Alex 30778]

He's not a lord either is he?

I never said he was

[Dr Gloom 20150]

I do, because they will have picked a new leader and united behind that person. (Labour take note).

 

do the tories seem like a united party, capable of doing this right now?

[Dr Gloom 20150]

just another day in the office

 

 

 

In a matter of days, the UK electorate faces its biggest choice in more than a generation — whether to remain in the EU.

While the campaign to exit the bloc says a decision to remain would be the bigger risk, its opponents contend that breaking up with Brussels would be a leap in the dark.

Here is a selection of Financial Times news and analysis of the steps after Brexit.

The promise: the UK would seek to leave the EU by 2019 and would be prepared to defy Brussels over immigration laws, according to a leading pro-Brexit minister.

The risk: George Osborne, the chancellor of the exchequer, has warned of a £30bn black hole in public finances if Britain should vote to leave on June 23.

The immediate aftermath: David Cameron would probably face the end of his career as prime minister as EU membership was put aside.

The politics: the political and constitutional questions caused by a vote to leave could open up a period of profound uncertainty for the UK and the EU.

The legal analysis: the referendum is advisory rather than mandatory; what happens next is a matter of politics, not law.

The mechanics: the UK would have two years to negotiate a deal after triggering the exit clause of the EU treaties; extending talks beyond that would require unanimity.

The economics: the professional consensus is clear - leaving the EU would hit growth. The size of that impact would depend on factors such as trade, productivity and foreign direct investment. But champions of Brexit argue that the economy would prosper outside the EU.

Immigration: the record influx of EU nationals has proved a powerful rallying call for the Leave campaign. Some three-quarters of EU citizens working in the UK would not meet current visa requirements for non-EU overseas workers if Britain left the bloc. But such restrictions are likely to apply to new entrants rather than to EU migrants already in the UK.

Trade options: leading Leave campaigners say they would not seek to join the EU’s single market — which requires free movement of labour. Instead they would seek a trade deal with the bloc. Treatment of the service sector, which accounts for 80 per cent of UK gross domestic product, would be a huge issue.

The European response: European leaders have stepped up secret discussions for an EU without Britain, drawing up a plan B focused on closer security and defence co-operation.

 

 

via the FT

Edited June 17, 2016 by Dr Gloom

[Christmas Tree 4003]

 

do the tories seem like a united party, capable of doing this right now?

Come Friday morning, yes. It will be all love and kisses.

[Renton 18048]

just another day in the office

 

 

 

via the FT

Fuck the FT, we have CT!

[Dr Gloom 20150]

more from the economist

 

 

 

Belatedly business and the financial markets have woken up to the rising danger of Brexit. This week sterling slid to its lowest level against the dollar in eight years. Bosses of many of the biggest companies in Britain have come out strongly in favour of remaining in. Yet the chances that Brexit may happen look greater than at any time in the past five years. And that makes it worth dwelling on what Brexit would entail—and how it measures up to the promises of would-be leavers.

The merits of the claims of the leavers are hard to judge because nobody can be sure what relationship a departing Britain would have with the EU. There is no precedent aside from Greenland. It left the club in 1985, but it is tiny and remains a dependency of Denmark, which is still in the EU. The assumption, now confirmed by Mr Cameron, is that a vote for Brexit would trigger an application to withdraw under article 50 of the Lisbon treaty.

Article 50 provides that the EU will negotiate a new agreement with the withdrawing country over two years. That can be extended, but only by unanimous agreement. The article also specifies that, when agreeing a new deal, the EU acts without the involvement of the country that is leaving. To get a feel for the negotiating dynamic, imagine a divorce demanded unilaterally by one partner, the terms of which are fixed unilaterally by the other. It is a process that is likely to be neither harmonious nor quick—nor to yield a result that is favourable to Britain.

Indeed, the incentive for other EU countries is not to act with generosity. A decision to leave will be seen by many as a hostile and destabilising act for a union that is already in deep trouble. Voters across Europe are disillusioned with Brussels. Populist parties in France, the Netherlands, Italy and elsewhere are watching the Brexit debate closely. The EU will be desperate to show that a decision to leave does not have a painless outcome.

The immediate effects of a Brexit vote are likely to be bad. Prolonged uncertainty over Britain’s new relationship with the EU will discourage investment, especially foreign direct investment, of which Britain is the biggest net recipient in the EU. This is particularly worrying for a country with a large current-account deficit that must be financed by capital inflows. Fears about the current account, Britain’s credit rating and Brexit have been drivers of the pound’s recent fall.

The longer-term effects of Brexit are also likely to be adverse. Most studies suggest that economic growth would suffer. A detailed analysis from the Bank of England in October found that EU membership had benefited the British economy. Attempts to model the consequences of Brexit point to economic damage. Two American banks, Goldman Sachs and Citigroup, recently warned that growth and the pound would fall further after a vote to leave the EU.

The trickiest issue for a post-Brexit Britain would be how to maintain full access to the EU’s single market, the world’s biggest. This is crucial since almost half Britain’s exports go to the rest of the EU. It matters greatly for the fastest-growing component of exports, services (including financial services). It will not be simple.

Norway and Iceland have access to the single market through their membership of the European Economic Area (EEA). But they are obliged to observe all the EU’s single-market regulations without having a say in them, to make payments into the EU budget (in Norway’s case, around 90% of Britain’s net payment per head) and to accept free movement of EU migrants. As a Norwegian minister once put it, “if you want to run Europe, you must be in Europe. If you want to be run by Europe, feel free to join Norway.”

Switzerland, which is not in the EEA, has negotiated bilateral agreements that give access for goods but not most services. It has to keep to most single-market rules, contribute to the budget and accept free movement of people. The Swiss have been warned that, if they try to implement a 2014 referendum demand for limits on the latter, their trade agreement with the EU will lapse.

[Alex 30778]

This is just a fucking game to CT. It really is

[Dr Gloom 20150]

Come Friday morning, yes. It will be all love and kisses.

 

i'm not sure why i'm bothering here, but what exactly are you basing this assumption on?

[Christmas Tree 4003]

just another day in the office

 

 

 

via the FT

Putting aside the scaremongering there's nothing in there that frightens me

[Christmas Tree 4003]

This is just a fucking game to CT. It really is

Yawn, your usual boring retort.