Meenzer 14166 Posted September 21, 2016 Share Posted September 21, 2016 You lot are still arguing with CT? Can only be to make yourselves feel bigger and cleverer, surely? Cleverer, perhaps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Christmas Tree 4005 Posted September 22, 2016 Author Share Posted September 22, 2016 http://www.newstatesman.com/politics/uk/2016/09/new-times-david-miliband-why-left-needs-move-forward-not-back Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChezGiven 0 Posted September 22, 2016 Share Posted September 22, 2016 CT to return to your predictive powers, you were proclaiming he Cameron / Osbourne ticket was going to romp to victory at the next election. I can't be bothered to look for quotes so let's just agree you didn't predict they would both be out of politics before the end of year. So this sweeping certainty about what's going to happen is laughable given how clueless you were over the fate over your political super stars. Now in thinking about Brexit, I am looking at the Bloomberg article his morning on the £540bn London clearing market and counting the overall value of financial services at risk in the trillions. That amount of money will win in the negotiations and when push comes to shove the powerful vested interests in this country will secure what they want and need. At this point, May starts looking like Brown, her credibility goes as she won't deliver the simplistic Brexit that the old left voters wanted. In this case (simply described as 'vested interests retain their interest') there will be a lot of people voting against May's party in the next election as the 'we were duped' line will kill the incumbent leaders. Whether this translates into anything for Labour, I would share your doubts. However, the path that May is on is beset with massive political risks and her indecisive control freak nature may undo her dramatically within the next 3 years. You (personally) have to hope that Boris etc can step in to save the day. Or there will be huge political opportunities for the opposition. That's the bottom line - given the high risk political pathway for May's government, dismissing the opposition is naive and fails to grasp the mammoth repercussions that will come from the political decisions yet to be made. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Christmas Tree 4005 Posted September 22, 2016 Author Share Posted September 22, 2016 CT to return to your predictive powers, you were proclaiming he Cameron / Osbourne ticket was going to romp to victory at the next election. I can't be bothered to look for quotes so let's just agree you didn't predict they would both be out of politics before the end of year. So this sweeping certainty about what's going to happen is laughable given how clueless you were over the fate over your political super stars. Now in thinking about Brexit, I am looking at the Bloomberg article his morning on the £540bn London clearing market and counting the overall value of financial services at risk in the trillions. That amount of money will win in the negotiations and when push comes to shove the powerful vested interests in this country will secure what they want and need. At this point, May starts looking like Brown, her credibility goes as she won't deliver the simplistic Brexit that the old left voters wanted. In this case (simply described as 'vested interests retain their interest') there will be a lot of people voting against May's party in the next election as the 'we were duped' line will kill the incumbent leaders. Whether this translates into anything for Labour, I would share your doubts. However, the path that May is on is beset with massive political risks and her indecisive control freak nature may undo her dramatically within the next 3 years. You (personally) have to hope that Boris etc can step in to save the day. Or there will be huge political opportunities for the opposition. That's the bottom line - given the high risk political pathway for May's government, dismissing the opposition is naive and fails to grasp the mammoth repercussions that will come from the political decisions yet to be made. Bonjour First of all I didn't predict Cameron would romp home in 2020 given that he announced before the last general election that he wouldn't be standing in 2020. As for May, I can't say I have a handle on her yet. Seems very odd to make such a fractious policy as grammar schools her first big launch. She is either paying too much attention to her special advisor or is very astute and getting it "out there" in her honeymoon period. As for Brexit, the only coalition against it are the Lib Dems and SNP. If Labour chose to stand against "the will of the people", it would drive their 37% who voted for it, straight to UKIP. It's hard to guess what will happen with the actual negotiations. Now that the warnings of post vote recessions in 2016 have failed to materialise, ditto for the recession forecast for 2017, the scare stories have focussed more on the city. However there's equal stories out there that the majority of the city would get around any issues Brexit throws up. The improved financial outlook will certainly make the government a lot more chipper in the forthcoming negotiations. Hopefully we stick to playing hardball and the Germans realise the stupidity of playing tit for tat over trade. The free movement bit is where all of this hinges and given wants going on in Europe, the growing anti immigrant feeling and forthcoming elections, that might be a lot easier to sort out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChezGiven 0 Posted September 22, 2016 Share Posted September 22, 2016 Bonjour First of all I didn't predict Cameron would romp home in 2020 given that he announced before the last general election that he wouldn't be standing in 2020. Cameron / Osbourne, the leaders, the party, the status quo. Whatever, you weren't predicting Cameron / Osbourne would be out of politics and you cant claim he wouldnt be standing for parliament when he clearly said he would in March of this year. https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/mar/10/david-cameron-intends-stand-re-election-mp-in-2020 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gemmill 36061 Posted September 22, 2016 Share Posted September 22, 2016 He had Osborne (who he thought was an excellent chancellor) or Johnson (who he thinks is just a wonderful eccentric cuddly bear) taking over and romping to victory. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Christmas Tree 4005 Posted September 22, 2016 Author Share Posted September 22, 2016 Cameron / Osbourne, the leaders, the party, the status quo. Whatever, you weren't predicting Cameron / Osbourne would be out of politics and you cant claim he wouldnt be standing for parliament when he clearly said he would in March of this year. https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/mar/10/david-cameron-intends-stand-re-election-mp-in-2020 Pardon me for not predicting the result on June 23rd. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rayvin 4981 Posted September 22, 2016 Share Posted September 22, 2016 CT just admitted he was wrong about something... has that ever happened before? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alex 31004 Posted September 22, 2016 Share Posted September 22, 2016 I think he'd claimed he'd been wrong in the past when he said he was 5'6" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dr Gloom 20232 Posted September 22, 2016 Share Posted September 22, 2016 he still maintains he got down to a svelte 32" waist on a diet of wheat beer and duck pizzas Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChezGiven 0 Posted September 22, 2016 Share Posted September 22, 2016 Pardon me for not predicting the result on June 23rd. Bottom line. You have naively discounted the most powerful people in the country getting what they want. There is a very simple and very clear trade off. Either the working class get what they want and there is the complete restriction on immigration. Or the banking and financial elite get what they want and trade is protected. None of the banking or financial outcomes of Brexit are anywhere close to happening, hence there is no need for them to exert their power just yet. Who do you think takes the fall in the former case? May and her party. In this scenario, there is a political opportunity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Christmas Tree 4005 Posted September 22, 2016 Author Share Posted September 22, 2016 He had Osborne (who he thought was an excellent chancellor) or Johnson (who he thinks is just a wonderful eccentric cuddly bear) taking over and romping to victory. No. in this very thread I said.... As for Boris, I think most people thought he would be the next PM prior to the Gove knifing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Christmas Tree 4005 Posted September 22, 2016 Author Share Posted September 22, 2016 Bottom line. You have naively discounted the most powerful people in the country getting what they want. There is a very simple and very clear trade off. Either the working class get what they want and there is the complete restriction on immigration. Or the banking and financial elite get what they want and trade is protected. None of the banking or financial outcomes of Brexit are anywhere close to happening, hence there is no need for them to exert their power just yet. Who do you think takes the fall in the former case? May and her party. In this scenario, there is a political opportunity. They didn't get what they wanted on June 23rd. I still think we'll pull off a cracking deal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChezGiven 0 Posted September 22, 2016 Share Posted September 22, 2016 They didn't get what they wanted on June 23rd. I still think we'll pull off a cracking deal. Well no you cant control the vote, which was why it was the financial market event of the year. They tried to but it didnt work. They can control the negotiation though, or at least bring their influence to bear in a much more constructive manner. I think we will too, cracking for the markets. Not for the voters of forgotten provincial english towns. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gemmill 36061 Posted September 22, 2016 Share Posted September 22, 2016 No. in this very thread I said.... As for Boris, I think most people thought he would be the next PM prior to the Gove knifing. Two pages before that you'll have had Osborne as PM man. You're all over the shop like a wobbly jelly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dr Gloom 20232 Posted September 22, 2016 Share Posted September 22, 2016 Two pages before that you'll have had Osborne as PM man. You're all over the shop like your wobbly belly. FYP Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gemmill 36061 Posted September 22, 2016 Share Posted September 22, 2016 Well no you cant control the vote, which was why it was the financial market event of the year. They tried to but it didnt work. They can control the negotiation though, or at least bring their influence to bear in a much more constructive manner. I think we will too, cracking for the markets. Not for the voters of forgotten provincial english towns. Aye. Fucking hell man, this is going one way and it's what's best for the city. Anyone that thinks otherwise is mental. All that shit Osborne did last year with the Chinese and the bank tax was to placate HSBC and convince them to stay in this country. What the banks want, they'll get. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alex 31004 Posted September 22, 2016 Share Posted September 22, 2016 They didn't get what they wanted on June 23rd. I still think we'll pull off a cracking deal. And Teresa May is the best PM eva Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gemmill 36061 Posted September 22, 2016 Share Posted September 22, 2016 "A cracking deal." [emoji38] Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Park Life 71 Posted September 22, 2016 Share Posted September 22, 2016 Bait and switch innit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alex 31004 Posted September 22, 2016 Share Posted September 22, 2016 "A cracking deal." [emoji38] Gromit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dr Gloom 20232 Posted September 22, 2016 Share Posted September 22, 2016 measured take on labour's predicament by owen jones. labour might get somewhere if there were more voices like this, and fewer like paul mason. https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2016/sep/22/voters-back-corbyn-policies-but-wont-accept-freakshow?CMP=share_btn_fb Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Christmas Tree 4005 Posted September 22, 2016 Author Share Posted September 22, 2016 The field day the Tory 2020 campaign team and media are going to have with this come the election. You can't recover from 172 of your own MP's saying you are not fit for office. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Park Life 71 Posted September 22, 2016 Share Posted September 22, 2016 We will rule with slogans. /Stalin. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rayvin 4981 Posted September 22, 2016 Share Posted September 22, 2016 The field day the Tory 2020 campaign team and media are going to have with this come the election. You can't recover from 172 of your own MP's saying you are not fit for office. Unless its in a party leadership contest, and then apparently you can. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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