Politics

[NJS 4026]

The uncertainty of the summer spending review has gone.

 

Just as business has reacted positively to the unknown being known, the same applies to most people.

 

I think your view that only those in the public sector or involved with someone who is should be worried and everyone else is okay is simplistic. If I worked in a service area like say taxi driving in an area which will be affected badly I wouldn't feel that immune to the effects.

[Guest alex]

Can't see many people in the N.E. going beserk with the pressies this Xmas like.

[Matt 0]

The annoying thing is though that it wasnt banks lending to small businesses that got us into this mess. It was dodgy mortgage deals, mainly in the US. I think even Northern rocks problems were mainly with their US debt?

 

Banks in this country have always made profits as part of normal business which included lending to risky small businesses.

 

I can understand them pulling back from dodgy self cert mortgages etc but see no problem in small business lending as previously carried out. Seems daft.

 

No it was their massive over-reliance on short-term wholesale funding. When that dried up, the doors closed.

 

Businesses are complaining about the cost of borrowing- but long-term funds are more expensive than short-term and as banks shift themselves onto far more stable funding platforms, the cost of lending that money increases.

[Christmas Tree 4005]

The uncertainty of the summer spending review has gone.

 

Just as business has reacted positively to the unknown being known, the same applies to most people.

 

I think your view that only those in the public sector or involved with someone who is should be worried and everyone else is okay is simplistic. If I worked in a service area like say taxi driving in an area which will be affected badly I wouldn't feel that immune to the effects.

 

 

You see thats just it. Not being in the public sector, I was hammered like most in the private sector in 2008 when it all went tits up. My income virtually dissaapeared overnight. The public sector was protected from the worst of it by Labour and so while it is looking worse for the public sector, for the likes of me and many in the private sector we are coming up the other side of the curve.

 

Not booming, but recovering. I think this is the difference between the two sectors that people sometimes struggle to get their head around.

[Christmas Tree 4005]

The annoying thing is though that it wasnt banks lending to small businesses that got us into this mess. It was dodgy mortgage deals, mainly in the US. I think even Northern rocks problems were mainly with their US debt?

 

Banks in this country have always made profits as part of normal business which included lending to risky small businesses.

 

I can understand them pulling back from dodgy self cert mortgages etc but see no problem in small business lending as previously carried out. Seems daft.

 

No it was their massive over-reliance on short-term wholesale funding. When that dried up, the doors closed.

 

Businesses are complaining about the cost of borrowing- but long-term funds are more expensive than short-term and as banks shift themselves onto far more stable funding platforms, the cost of lending that money increases.

 

I understand what you are saying but small business seems to be complaining about the availability of loans, not the interest rate on those loans?

[Guest alex]

It's not like the two sectors are completely separate, CT. Not least in places like the N.E. You've got some brass neck accusing people of not getting the basics whilst making massive, facile generalisations like that.

[Christmas Tree 4005]

UK economic Growth rate beats all expectations

 

The British economy grew by 0.8% in the three months to September - double the rate that had been predicted by analysts.

 

Excellent news.

[Renton 18188]

The uncertainty of the summer spending review has gone.

 

Just as business has reacted positively to the unknown being known, the same applies to most people.

 

I think your view that only those in the public sector or involved with someone who is should be worried and everyone else is okay is simplistic. If I worked in a service area like say taxi driving in an area which will be affected badly I wouldn't feel that immune to the effects.

 

 

You see thats just it. Not being in the public sector, I was hammered like most in the private sector in 2008 when it all went tits up. My income virtually dissaapeared overnight. The public sector was protected from the worst of it by Labour and so while it is looking worse for the public sector, for the likes of me and many in the private sector we are coming up the other side of the curve.

 

Not booming, but recovering. I think this is the difference between the two sectors that people sometimes struggle to get their head around.

 

I think what you apparently fail to get your head around is that you work around is that you are working in a service industry. Even if your company doesn't have direct contracts with the council, other public bodies, or private companies dependent on public contracts, you are going to feel the effect when people can't afford to get a taxi to the shops or on a night out any more. Then people might take you up on your advice and start driving taxis of their own in competition, further reducing your income.

 

Not withstanding that, there is a very real possibility of a double dip recession. You seem to be unable to grasp how disastrous this would be.

[Guest alex]

The annoying thing is though that it wasnt banks lending to small businesses that got us into this mess. It was dodgy mortgage deals, mainly in the US. I think even Northern rocks problems were mainly with their US debt?

 

Banks in this country have always made profits as part of normal business which included lending to risky small businesses.

 

I can understand them pulling back from dodgy self cert mortgages etc but see no problem in small business lending as previously carried out. Seems daft.

 

No it was their massive over-reliance on short-term wholesale funding. When that dried up, the doors closed.

 

Businesses are complaining about the cost of borrowing- but long-term funds are more expensive than short-term and as banks shift themselves onto far more stable funding platforms, the cost of lending that money increases.

 

I understand what you are saying but small business seems to be complaining about the availability of loans, not the interest rate on those loans?

The thing, I've noticed that I can get a loan at the drop of a hat, I'm constantly having stuff put through my door, phonecalls from my bank, etc. offering my loans, presumably because I'm deemed low risk. But even then the interest rates are much higher than interest rates. So I think perhaps it's a case of those who need really them can't get them and those who don't are being encouraged to take out loans but at a rate which is very high in relation to the base rate.

[Christmas Tree 4005]

It's not like the two sectors are completely separate, CT. Not least in places like the N.E. You've got some brass neck accusing people of not getting the basics whilst making massive, facile generalisations like that.

 

 

The point I was making Alex was I though a simple one.

 

The private sector got hammered in real time as the crash happened

 

The public sector was protected to a large degree by Labour

 

Cant see what problem you have with those generilastions which most analysts agree with?

[Renton 18188]

UK economic Growth rate beats all expectations

 

The British economy grew by 0.8% in the three months to September - double the rate that had been predicted by analysts.

 

Excellent news.

 

Good news, not excellent. If you read the article rather than the headline you will see there are still real concerns.

 

"It's basically all down to construction again and I think the implication is that that's not sustainable," said James Nixon, economist at Societe Generale.

 

"The underlying rate is obviously significantly less than these headline numbers would suggest."

 

As you are right in saying, it's two years down the line that's important.

[ChezGiven 0]

UK economic Growth rate beats all expectations

 

The British economy grew by 0.8% in the three months to September - double the rate that had been predicted by analysts.

 

Excellent news.

 

The cuts havent been implemented yet.

 

The forecast for this quarter (which is versus this time last year) were downplayed because of the 50% tax rate and the VAT changes. The economy is now displaying the performance associated with investments made 12 months ago. Its lagged. The new government hasnt actually done anything yet, no costs are cut and no tax changes that werent already planned by Labour have been made.

 

The debate is about what happens once the cuts have been implemented, not before.

[NJS 4026]

UK economic Growth rate beats all expectations

 

The British economy grew by 0.8% in the three months to September - double the rate that had been predicted by analysts.

 

Excellent news.

 

 

"Experts predicted Newcastle to lose at least 8-0 at Old Trafford - because it was only 3-0 it was an excellent result".

 

 

The previous quarter was 1.2%

[Christmas Tree 4005]

The uncertainty of the summer spending review has gone.

 

Just as business has reacted positively to the unknown being known, the same applies to most people.

 

I think your view that only those in the public sector or involved with someone who is should be worried and everyone else is okay is simplistic. If I worked in a service area like say taxi driving in an area which will be affected badly I wouldn't feel that immune to the effects.

 

 

You see thats just it. Not being in the public sector, I was hammered like most in the private sector in 2008 when it all went tits up. My income virtually dissaapeared overnight. The public sector was protected from the worst of it by Labour and so while it is looking worse for the public sector, for the likes of me and many in the private sector we are coming up the other side of the curve.

 

Not booming, but recovering. I think this is the difference between the two sectors that people sometimes struggle to get their head around.

 

I think what you apparently fail to get your head around is that you work around is that you are working in a service industry. Even if your company doesn't have direct contracts with the council, other public bodies, or private companies dependent on public contracts, you are going to feel the effect when people can't afford to get a taxi to the shops or on a night out any more. Then people might take you up on your advice and start driving taxis of their own in competition, further reducing your income.

 

Not withstanding that, there is a very real possibility of a double dip recession. You seem to be unable to grasp how disastrous this would be.

 

 

I understand all of that and you examplify the point I am making.

 

All of what you suggest happened in 2008 and happened hard. The construction industry stopped overnight, People stopped getting taxis and laid off bricklayers etc started driving taxis.

 

The public sector kept on pretty much as normal.

 

Since 2008 the private sector has started to recover and continued to grow therefore work has picked up and some taxi drivers have returned to their old jobs.

 

While I agree there may be a dip in this recovery due to the fact the public sector will now feel some pain, and I agree it will effect places like Wales and the North East worse than surrey, it still wont be as bad as the effects of 2008.

 

You have to remember that the private sector is still about 4 times as big as the public sector (I think- dont have exact figures)

[Guest alex]

'Funny' difference between I've noticed between a lot of people in the public and private sectors is that those in the public sector don't seem to gloat so much when those in the private sector lose their jobs.

Edited October 26, 2010 by alex

[Guest alex]

It's not like the two sectors are completely separate, CT. Not least in places like the N.E. You've got some brass neck accusing people of not getting the basics whilst making massive, facile generalisations like that.

 

 

The point I was making Alex was I though a simple one.

 

The private sector got hammered in real time as the crash happened

 

The public sector was protected to a large degree by Labour

 

Cant see what problem you have with those generilastions which most analysts agree with?

It isn't that simple. Surely you can see the massive reliance on public sector jobs in a region like ours in terms of driving the private sector too. Someone from the N.E. Chamber of Commerce (proper Commie type, y'knaa?) was on the radio recently saying that something like 30% of all private sector income was connected to the public sector. Might have been higher actually, but you take my point.

Edited October 26, 2010 by alex

[Christmas Tree 4005]

UK economic Growth rate beats all expectations

 

The British economy grew by 0.8% in the three months to September - double the rate that had been predicted by analysts.

 

Excellent news.

 

Good news, not excellent. If you read the article rather than the headline you will see there are still real concerns.

 

"It's basically all down to construction again and I think the implication is that that's not sustainable," said James Nixon, economist at Societe Generale.

 

"The underlying rate is obviously significantly less than these headline numbers would suggest."

 

As you are right in saying, it's two years down the line that's important.

 

 

Renty Renty Renty......Lets just rejoice in some good news..... The article I was reading also had the following quote from analysts....

 

Economic growth over the past six months has now hit 2%, which is the fastest pace of expansion seen over two consecutive quarters for 10 years.

 

Some experts believe businesses will gain momentum now the government has laid out concrete plans to tackle the deficit in its Spending Review.

 

Albert Ellis, CEO of the recruitment consultancy Harvey Nash, told Sky News there would be an initial catch-up in figures before they level out.

 

He said: "For the next six or 12 months, we'll see further momentum.

 

"We're optimistic that we will see an absolute growth in the number of jobs."

 

I resisted the urge to make simple good news party political

[Christmas Tree 4005]

UK economic Growth rate beats all expectations

 

The British economy grew by 0.8% in the three months to September - double the rate that had been predicted by analysts.

 

Excellent news.

 

 

"Experts predicted Newcastle to lose at least 8-0 at Old Trafford - because it was only 3-0 it was an excellent result".

 

 

The previous quarter was 1.2%

 

 

The latest GDP figure marks a fourth consecutive quarter of growth since the recession - but it is well down on the 1.2% rise between April and June.

 

However, the Office for National Statistics (ONS) points out that bad weather at the start of the year contributed to a bounce back in the second quarter.

 

If this seasonal factor is taken into account, the underlying growth between July and

September was actually similar to that of the second quarter, it says.

[Christmas Tree 4005]

'Funny' difference between I've noticed between a lot of people in the public and private sectors is that those in the public sector don't seem to gloat so much when those in the private sector lose their jobs.

 

 

Thats shocking Alex. Please find some examples of gloating about people losing their jobs.....

[Guest alex]

'Funny' difference between I've noticed between a lot of people in the public and private sectors is that those in the public sector don't seem to gloat so much when those in the private sector lose their jobs.

 

 

Thats shocking Alex. Please find some examples of gloating about people losing their jobs.....

I've heard people more or less say as much. Sorry I didn't have my dictaphone handy.

[ChezGiven 0]

The Q3 performance of the UK economy has nothing whatsoever to do with policies implemented since the middle of Q2. Current peformance relates to past policy. Current policy is endangering the seeds of growth, which are related to Brown's fiscal expansionary policies.

[Christmas Tree 4005]

It's not like the two sectors are completely separate, CT. Not least in places like the N.E. You've got some brass neck accusing people of not getting the basics whilst making massive, facile generalisations like that.

 

 

The point I was making Alex was I though a simple one.

 

The private sector got hammered in real time as the crash happened

 

The public sector was protected to a large degree by Labour

 

Cant see what problem you have with those generilastions which most analysts agree with?

It isn't that simple. Surely you can see the massive reliance on public sector jobs in a region like ours in terms of driving the private sector too. Someone from the N.E. Chamber of Commerce (proper Commie type, y'knaa?) was on the radio recently saying that something like 30% of all private sector income was connected to the public sector. Might have been higher actually, but you take my point.

 

But even if those figures are true it just reaffirms my point.

 

If 30% comes from the public sector, 70% comes from the private sector so when the private sector died in the crash of 2008 the effects were / are alot worse than 5% a year cuts on 30% could possibly be to the private sector now.

[Guest alex]

It's not like the two sectors are completely separate, CT. Not least in places like the N.E. You've got some brass neck accusing people of not getting the basics whilst making massive, facile generalisations like that.

 

 

The point I was making Alex was I though a simple one.

 

The private sector got hammered in real time as the crash happened

 

The public sector was protected to a large degree by Labour

 

Cant see what problem you have with those generilastions which most analysts agree with?

It isn't that simple. Surely you can see the massive reliance on public sector jobs in a region like ours in terms of driving the private sector too. Someone from the N.E. Chamber of Commerce (proper Commie type, y'knaa?) was on the radio recently saying that something like 30% of all private sector income was connected to the public sector. Might have been higher actually, but you take my point.

 

But even if those figures are true it just reaffirms my point.

 

If 30% comes from the public sector, 70% comes from the private sector so when the private sector died in the crash of 2008 the effects were / are alot worse than 5% a year cuts on 30% could possibly be to the private sector now.

You're oversimplifying it again. It's 5% cuts across the board but places like the NE will be disproportionately affected where the cuts will be higher in terms of the working population which will have a big knock-on effect on the local private sector. That's his argument, not mine btw.

[Rob W 0]

'Funny' difference between I've noticed between a lot of people in the public and private sectors is that those in the public sector don't seem to gloat so much when those in the private sector lose their jobs.

 

 

Thats shocking Alex. Please find some examples of gloating about people losing their jobs.....

I've heard people more or less say as much. Sorry I didn't have my dictaphone handy.

 

feel free to quote me - "its about time the Public Sector felt a little pain"

[Christmas Tree 4005]

It's not like the two sectors are completely separate, CT. Not least in places like the N.E. You've got some brass neck accusing people of not getting the basics whilst making massive, facile generalisations like that.

 

 

The point I was making Alex was I though a simple one.

 

The private sector got hammered in real time as the crash happened

 

The public sector was protected to a large degree by Labour

 

Cant see what problem you have with those generilastions which most analysts agree with?

It isn't that simple. Surely you can see the massive reliance on public sector jobs in a region like ours in terms of driving the private sector too. Someone from the N.E. Chamber of Commerce (proper Commie type, y'knaa?) was on the radio recently saying that something like 30% of all private sector income was connected to the public sector. Might have been higher actually, but you take my point.

 

But even if those figures are true it just reaffirms my point.

 

If 30% comes from the public sector, 70% comes from the private sector so when the private sector died in the crash of 2008 the effects were / are alot worse than 5% a year cuts on 30% could possibly be to the private sector now.

You're oversimplifying it again. It's 5% cuts across the board but places like the NE will be disproportionately affected where the cuts will be higher in terms of the working population which will have a big knock-on effect on the local private sector. That's his argument, not mine btw.

 

I do understand that, just point out that when it happens, it still wont be as bad as the crash of 2008