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@trooper Fine running conditions in the big smoke today, low clouds and drizzle keeping the less hardy park-goers away. Distancing protocol being observed by all but the occasional dawdling family filling the width of the path as if it belonged to them. Subtle, low-key signage (pictured in happier weather) appears to be having the desired effect.

 

91038364_2615836205367615_33449796699489

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A friend of mine went into hospital yesterday with corona-virus they put him on one of the new Dyson ventilators last night and today he is really picking up very well

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2 hours ago, Dr Gloom said:

6,000? surely we're going to sky rocket way past that?

What makes you say that? 

 

I'm encouraged that the rate isn't exponentially increasing the last few days. Fingers crossed. 

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3 hours ago, Renton said:

 

The death rate has declined in the past 2 days and is currently only 1408. If that trend continues I don't expect to exceed 6000. In this wave at least. Still more than China. 

China went full draconian lock down early though. Ours was slow out of the blocks and half arsed 
 

You were predicting 100k minimum early in this thread. What changed? I wondered if that was high at the time but 6k seems conservative. Surely?

Edited by Dr Gloom

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26 minutes ago, wykikitoon said:

What makes you say that? 

 

I'm encouraged that the rate isn't exponentially increasing the last few days. Fingers crossed. 

We seem to be in the same trajectory as Italy, which already has 10k deaths 

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I think comparing ourselves to Italy we have to take some considerations in. They have a lot older population than us and we have moved to create these extra mobile hospitals a lot quicker than them. Granted they did a lock down quicker than us though. 

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Just now, wykikitoon said:

BTW Gloom is that an up to date graph? 

48 hours old actually. Here is the latest one 

AE601622-87D9-4663-BD6B-681CE8488FB1.jpeg

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2 minutes ago, Dr Gloom said:

China went full draconian lock down early though. As was slow out of the blocks and half arsed 
 

You were predicting 100k minimum early in this thread. What changed? I wondered if that was high at the time but 6k seems conservative. Surely?

 

Whats changed is what Neil Ferguson of Imperial has said. 100k was looking very likely, in fact a do nothing approach was predicted to kill 450k. This is because tge numbers would have been so great the NHS would have collapsed. We saw this in Lombardy. But instead we've gone on a pretty hard lock down. I think we might have been exceptionally lucky and done it just in time. From what i can tell it is being adhered to. China went further, but from having the disadvantage of not knowing what they were dealing with they got the mortality down to 5k. Incredible work.

 

We've done some things they have too. We've built new hospitals. We have engineers making new respirators. Weve reacted. Very early days yet but the signs are good. There is still no exit strategy though, that is a huge problem we can face after we get over the worst. 

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4 minutes ago, Dr Gloom said:

48 hours old actually. Here is the latest one 

AE601622-87D9-4663-BD6B-681CE8488FB1.jpeg

Look at tye last UK data point. Quite flat. I hope it's not an outlier. I hope its the effect of lockdown with a 1 week lag. Things are supposed to be improving in Lombardy now as well btw. 

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They mentioned the lack of an exit strategy today and I think they will look at that when it looks like it's possible it can happen. At the moment of course the attention is elsewhere.

 

Although according to the chart we locked down before Italy. I know a couple of Italians and they said they needed to get the army involved ASAP as the Italians have little respect for authorities. If they don't go in heavy handed they will just ignore it. 

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I was looking through my works team WhatsApp thread and someone posted an article about a firm in Canary Wharf sending everyone home due to a case on Feb 26th - that's 24/27 days before Johnson shut the pubs then implemented full on lockdown 3 days later. 

 

I think if we'd been locked down on the first of March  we'd be doing quite well now. 

Edited by NJS

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14 minutes ago, Renton said:

 

Whats changed is what Neil Ferguson of Imperial has said. 100k was looking very likely, in fact a do nothing approach was predicted to kill 450k. This is because tge numbers would have been so great the NHS would have collapsed. We saw this in Lombardy. But instead we've gone on a pretty hard lock down. I think we might have been exceptionally lucky and done it just in time. From what i can tell it is being adhered to. China went further, but from having the disadvantage of not knowing what they were dealing with they got the mortality down to 5k. Incredible work.

 

We've done some things they have too. We've built new hospitals. We have engineers making new respirators. Weve reacted. Very early days yet but the signs are good. There is still no exit strategy though, that is a huge problem we can face after we get over the worst. 

 

Are we believing China's stats btw? I don't believe a word of what they say about COVID

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6 minutes ago, Kid Dynamite said:

 

Are we believing China's stats btw? I don't believe a word of what they say about COVID

 

I believe their stats more or less, at least in the latter stages of the outbreak. I think they've been quite open and forthcoming, they released the genetic sequence very soon in the process for instance. I dont see a motivation for deception. Also the truth will out. This will be the most studied event in the history of science.  

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Might this change the picture?

6k deaths would be an amazing result. It doesn’t feel like our leaders have done an amazing job so far. I hope I’m wrong, obviously, but I fear the worst.

 

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Also. There are 9k people in hospital with cv19 now, that’s up from 6k on Friday.

Something isn’t right when Renton is the cheery one 

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8 minutes ago, Dr Gloom said:

Might this change the picture?

6k deaths would be an amazing result. It doesn’t feel like our leaders have done an amazing job so far. I hope I’m wrong, obviously, but I fear the worst.

 

 

But there's also talk that people dying of coronavirus incidentally are included in the figures (positive for the virus but die of something else). Swings and roundabouts. The R value is now  thought to be less than 1 in the UK. 

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Just now, Dr Gloom said:

Also. There are 9k people in hospital with cv19 now, that’s up from 6k on Friday.

Something isn’t right when Renton is the cheery one 

 

I'm no epidemiologist. I just thinknthe Imperial research is the most credible.

 

Anyway, im on an up day. I alternate. I'll be back to despair tomorrow. 

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I've just watched a clip of Dr Birx (the wife in America) explaining to an interviewer that the 100 to 200k figure that Trump is now saying would be "a good result" is "if all Americans do everything perfectly". The horror from the news anchor as she realises that 100 to 200k is not really what America can expect, it's actually America's best case scenario, is quite something. 

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