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Posts
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Everything posted by Rayvin
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Agreed but right now they're polling at the level of being wiped off the face of the earth. They'll be back within respectable parameters again within a couple of years, that's the annoying thing.
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So long story short, while this is an amusing drama, the upshot is that we'll end up with a new PM selected by the Tory MPs themselves, and who will have two years to steady the ship and make them look competent again. I think Truss may have been too useless too quickly for us really. Would have been great if she'd held off on this madness until she was a year in.
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Yeah I have to admit I would have said at the start of the season that it was highly improbable, but at this point I would say I'm heading towards 50:50 on it depending how the season goes. I watched some of the Spurs game last night and they looked terrible tbh. Not remotely interested in trying to take the initiative. Some of this depends on whether Liverpool properly recover mind you - I don't see us breaking into a top 4 of Arsenal (on current form), City, Chelsea and Liverpool. I could see it if we just had to force our way past Spurs or Man Utd (i.e. if Liverpool just have a fully shit season).
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I doubt there's anything stopping Labour from calling for a vote on it but they'd need enough Tories to go along with the process for it to get through. And a lot of those Tories would be quite literally signing their jobs away at this point in time, if they did so.
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The uncertainty will be bad, the replacement will be a boost, would be my guess. The depressing thing about this is that they have two years to 'move on' from it - they'll put a stabilising person in now. Truth be told, unless it's Johnson, we may start to see the other side of the Tory party (Cameron style Tories) begin to come back into control. Which obviously enhances them in an electoral sense. The smart move would be for whoever they put in there to come in and draw an immediate line between the ERG fanatics and everyone else, claim to be a government of adults now etc.
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There is no chance they're going to call a General Election - maybe if the polls were tighter they would consider it but as things stand it would be suicide. Unfortunately the only question we have ahead of us is whether it's Boris Johnson or Rishi Sunak, I fear. Not even sure which way I would want that to go, frankly. Also seems clear that they're intending to do whatever comes next without any sort of voting.
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We're probably just about good enough to be in that conversation on paper, but it's going to be hard work to recover progress on some of the points dropped so far. While we're playing well and are difficult to beat, we haven't taken full points off any of our "rival" top 4 challenging teams so far (granted, Liverpool and Man Utd away) - that's something we would need to change for this to happen really. I think we look well set for top half/challenging for European slots at least so I would think the minimum aim for this season is on track.
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I mean this has been superb. This is 100% the party they've always been - a professionalised and well spoken calamity who are able to appeal to the orcs who vote for them, but they've always managed to hide it behind a very controlled, tight grip on there many inadequacies. Unfortunately, Truss is the inadequate to end all inadequates. And the fact that I'm saying that post-Johnson is utterly incredible to me. She is the Gollum to the Tory Party Sauron. I cannot wait for the moment when she falls into Mount Doom due to her refusal to let go of power, and consequently blows up the eye of fire through which the Tories interact with the rest of us.
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At what point does armed insurrection seem like a more viable option than simply letting them continue destroying the country with their inadequacy?
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The Tories were clear on this tbf. "Fuck business" I believe was one of the post-referendum comments.
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Good point tbh. He'd have already launched nukes by now. Given that he was a Russian puppet, probably at Ukraine.
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Turned out to be Project Fucking Reality. Honestly this is the shit that gets me so wound up, the idea that people's gut feel can measure up to the cold, hard fucking reality of things. Fucking hell man. And even now, all would be forgiven if the people backing this lunacy would just grow up, hold their hands up and say they made a bad fucking call, and supported reversing it. Really hope the narrative shift on this becomes louder, and louder.
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I'm sorry like but I'm not forgiving this I don't care how divisive that is, the people who continue to back this can fuck off.
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Since we've gone around the houses on this a bit let's try to close off here - that first sentence above - for me, being stupid would mean they are incapable on an intellectual level of making a good determination. I don't believe that anyone has that excuse. Not educating yourself is a decision to remain ignorant and I have no respect for that, nor should anyone. So ultimately we just have slightly different definitions here of the word, but I hope it's clear where I'm coming from on it. On the second bit - yeah I guess it is oppressive. I'm still ok with it. I have absolutely run out of patience with people making emotive, non-sensical decisions based on demonstrably false information. It has, without exaggeration, ruined the country. Again, I'll say that the process by which people do that -should not be allowed-. It could be prevented through superior education around civics, greater control over media spin (on all sides). I have gone down the right wing rabbit holes, I read across all wings of media, I listen to podcasts even from the 'scary' right wingers that people call fascists and nazis. I'm not some ivory tower, guardian reading leftist who is out of touch with what the others are thinking, I've made a fucking point of getting stuck into what the other side are feeling, and have used this information to govern my views politically over many years. So, and I mean this honestly, I do know the arguments of the other side. I have thought them through in as close a mindset as I can get to 'neutral'. Hell, at one point in my mid 20s I was even in danger of disappearing down an alt right tunnel politically. But eventually, I kept coming back to the same points. I found that I valued informed, evidenced opinions which could paint a picture of how a policy would take us from A to B in a manner that I was able to logically follow. With both the left and right, I have applied this. The further to the extremes you go either way, the less you're able to follow the path between the two points. And I decided that if no one was able to explain the path from A to B, I would reject the argument. Consequently, I found myself across to the centre left side of the argument because that just happened to be where the fullest, most well evidenced opinions were. So I hope it's clear, I'm not a nodding head who doesn't check himself on his views or regularly challenge them - I do - but the simple reality is that based on my framework for making sense of the world, gut and emotion driven voting with no evidence that the policy you support will take you from A to B is up there with believing in god. It's a fantasy. You're voting for a fantasy. Not reality. How is that remotely helpful in society? It's absolute lunacy. So yes, oppressive though it may be, I'm afraid I value outcomes more than what I suppose I could most charitably call "indulgement". The latter is literally destroying the world in its quest to ignore reality. That said, I will always acknowledge an argument that has a clear A to B even if it's arguing something I don't presently agree with. So I'm hoping that since I'm just coming out and owning this point, you'll accept that we just have different views. You find my position repellent I suppose, but that's ok. I do understand yours fwiw.
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If it doesn't happen here, it's just not going to until the 2 years is up IMO. This is the most shambolic episode of government I've ever seen, there is no credible way the Tories can replace her but she absolutely needs to go. Horrifying stuff. Starmer making the right decision though here.
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I never said it wasn't democratically executed. In fact I think in one of my earlier posts already acknowledged it was. You're continuing to respond to what you think I'm saying rather than what I'm saying. Everything else in there - I agree. None of that is news though, and you're basically saying they're voting on insecurity, anxiety, feelings and emotion. Which is also what I'm saying they're doing. So yes, agreed. But my lasting point on this is that this is not helpful in achieving productive outcomes for our society, i.e. those that make our lives better. Indeed, they make our lives worse, and in the case of Brexit, seems to be actively working against their own stated aims. Other than that though man, yeah, I know why this happened. I understand it. As I said earlier, I forgave the original decision because I understood it. What I can't accept is people denying reality and doubling down now that they can see it's all nonsense. That's my issue. The fact we're still here with these lunatics in power, is because of that denial of reality. I'm not forgiving it until the wrongdoing is acknowledged.
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Who claimed that it was because they were stupid, exactly? I feel like you think that's what I'm saying but if so, you're not reading my posts properly. I also don't think I said they were lied to (they were). I said that their opinions being formed based on gut feel rather than informed evidence was a flawed structure that has no benefit within the democratic process. So if you prefer, the process by which people vote on gut feel instead of evidence and analysis, should be banned. Impractical, but then I was never really saying that there was any practical way of achieving this, I was just saying that it should be the case.
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Just to make totally sure that we're clear on this, I'm not calling for anything to be called democracy. The democracy we are living is a failed system that has been abused and distorted beyond being remotely useful by years of Tory rule and perversion by corporate and dirty money. I don't care if we exit this period one day with or without democracy as it is currently defined. I just want a less devastating system of governance where smart and experienced people are able to make decisions that benefit society. I think that's something that democracy can be but in our case isn't. Maybe something approaching a technocracy, who knows. My contention though, isn't that I want democracy. I just don't want the hell our current system is inflicting on us. And to go back to my original point (waaaay back), I'm in no hurry to reconcile with people who are being weaponised within this system against their own interests due to their propensity to dismiss and reject informed opinion in place of their gut feeling on matters. I'm really ok with that position too - they have failed me, not the other way around. I'm not going cap in hand and asking them to fuck me all over again, I'm just going to stand to the side and criticise their decision making framework and harp on endlessly about the consequences of their choices. That may make them dig their heels in all the more but... if that's true, they really are overgrown toddlers.
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This is also a good idea and last I checked would have us led by the Greens.
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Not saying they shouldn't vote because they're stupid, I'm saying they shouldn't be allowed to vote until they're informed and prepared to vote based on assessment of evidence. We are all capable of that, no one is too stupid to do so. Not all opinions are equal. Some are logically thought out and well evidenced, others are ignorant and baseless. I would like an identical version of democracy but one where politicians are shot (literally) for being found to lie, where the press are sued for misrepresentations of the truth, and where more effort is given to teaching people how their society works, how politics works, and what they're voting for.
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I'm not necessarily advocating for democracy. I want something that will improve people's lives. Democracy in its current form is broken and prioritises pandering to idiocy ahead of practical, rational outcomes. And as the link I provided shows, I'm not the only one who thinks so. Voting on gut feel is not something I will ever respect in any sense.
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Yeah the Tories really need to grow up here if this is the plan. You fucked up, you backed the wrong horse, fuck off and call a GE. There is no democratic process that can achieve what you want to achieve here. Fuck. Off.
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Erik ten HAAG-kaloogies vs, Eddie's United Camping Bastards
Rayvin replied to tooner's topic in Newcastle Forum
That's fair enough actually, ok. Sorry