Rayvin

This is a pointless argument because we disagree on the fundamentals of it. We both agree, I think, that Johnson would be an easier win for Labour than Sunak or Mordaunt. Where we disagree, is on the risk/reward aspect of it. A more competent Tory party is worth the risk in your eyes because they do less damage than Johnson (highly debatable since Johnson would be a lame duck and wouldn't implement the same levels of austerity) and therefore Labour have less to 'repair' when they inevitably win, which you have 100% faith in. I do not have 100% faith in it because that position is absurd in any sense, let alone the asylum of British politics. I'm on about 75% certainty that Labour win either way. So my calculation is fundamentally different to yours in that I have to add in a further 5 years of the Tories as an additional component of risk - and with that in mind, it's close, but I'd prefer Johnson. Their party is the mechanism for devastation, not Johnson. Same as the Republicans are in the US, and not specifically Trump. Do not lose sight of the real enemy in all of this. As I've said for a few weeks now, even with this poll lead I would want an electoral pact. I would want every gun we've got turned on the Tories. We cannot afford to be complacent now, we have to make sure they're put down. I have no clue why you're so laissez faire about it but I don't have it in me, this next election feels like it will be the most important one this country will have for a generation. I have plenty of work to do to build a life for myself that is worth living, I cannot afford to have 7 more years of the Tories, I just can't.

They're all loons IMO, some of them are just more honest about it than others. Seems unlikely he gets that 100 and the Tories seem to understand that they stand no chance if he takes over, so we may be back to 'strong and stable' Tory moderates from this point either way.

In an interview with LBC’s Andrew Marr, the former cabinet minister David Davis told Johnson “Go back to the beach”, while other Conservatives variously described the former prime minister as “electorally toxic”, “dangerous for democracy” and “Labour’s secret weapon”. The fact that they don't want him, is telling.

Me too on this last point - I just can't bear the thought of them getting away with this somehow. The entire right wing press will rally behind Mordaunt or Sunak who will remain credible for long enough to make it stick, then they'll come for Labour in the usual way that they always do. This poll lead has to survive two years of that - and maybe it can, but the Tories absolutely will attempt a reset on these two if they can, and the right wing press will support them in that. I don't think they'll win either... but this fucking party is like the zombie that you think you successfully brained only for it to lurch up a couple of minutes later - despite the fact that half of its head is missing - and take a chunk out of your leg. I'd be standing there unloading a shotgun into it's fucking face until there was nothing left but mush on the floor, at this point.

Where has this idea come from that the rest of the Tory party other than Johnson -aren't- psychopaths? Cameron killed 180,000 people with his ideologically driven austerity drive - a political choice. Johnson managed similar numbers, but he was aided by a pandemic tbf to him. It seems likely that the "moderates" are coming back with austerity in spades. I doubt Johnson would, he wants to be loved too much. As for 'the country can't sustain much more of this' I do appreciate all metrics for this sort of comment are subjective, but we passed that particular road sign about 5 years ago IMO. This country is fucked, is where I am. I'm borderline on it even being reversible at this point, I think we might actually just have fucked ourselves permanently into a much lower standard of life in the UK. But we did that over the past 12 years, not just through Johnson or Truss, not even just through Brexit. We did this under the moderate Tories, first and foremost. That point aside, with the 'hysterical' bit I was merely referencing the fact that you noted you were "aghast" that I would prefer Johnson and comfortable victory over moderates, austerity, and less comfortable victory. You want the moderates back in charge to impose 'sensible' austerity and all the harm that does, fair enough. I'd sooner take my chances with a giant infant who wants to be loved, at least until we can get rid of his party.

Somehow, despite the hysterical reactions to this view, I will soldier on.

My sentiments on the matter have no bearing on anything so you don't need too much hope mate Whatever will be is up to a handful of out of touch lunatics, not me.

Right but the Tories are now two parties within one. The moderates (by Tory standards) are now about to take back control of their party, and will be able to blame all the madness and chaos on the ERG lunatics, essentially creating a distinction in the minds of voters between them and what they replaced. So when the country starts to stabilise they will get the credit for that. My concern is that this position is the same one Labour have been relying on - the competent and capable ones in the room - if the Tory moderates get a crack at that first, Labour suddenly have a much harder time distinguishing themselves. We need to get these psychos out of office, and right now I'd take Johnson over anyone else on the basis that Labour are already set up to beat him. We need them divided. You might be right but I'll take 2 years of Johnson if it lowers the risk of 5 further years of the most destructive political party in history.

Think I'd prefer him back tbh, far more beatable than the others.

Yeah but they can just exclude Johnson from being one of the two - Mordaunt or Sunak could be the options put in front of people.

If they do, somehow, find it in themselves to submit to a General Election - I think that would redeem some of the Tories in my eyes. It is clear to everyone, including them, that they are not fit to govern at present. Acknowledging this and putting the country first for a change would be something that I could respect. But it's really not going to happen given how many of them would have to jump ship. Unless of course there's some almighty schism about to unfold in their attempts to find a new leader. I think though, that the ERG are now beaten.

I hope she feels fully and completely humiliated.

Fair enough, but you said they were positioning themselves as different to the Tories. And yes, we all know in the technical detail that this is true, but those sort of policies are window dressing, not real distinction. You're right though, I'm sure there's more to come.

Needs far more. You know it, I know it. None of that arrests any of the crisis we're living through. Although I do wonder if 'sick pay for all' extends to self employed. If it doesn't then none of that does anything whatsoever for me - would be useful to see something around mortgages/housing and the like.

I checked the Mail yesterday and it was full of comments backing Braverman, claiming she'd been sacked for being the first home secretary ever to actually do what she was supposed to do (presumably personally executing immigrants). Those guys might go Reform UK at least once the Tories settle down, but if Johnson comes back in I suspect they'll flock back.

Don't think it's a plan (this has been so chaotic I can't believe anyone could have orchestrated it) but do think there's a very real possibility of a return of Johnson here. If this had been a more gradual process with clear trip ups from the Tory high command on Truss, I could have believed it was a carefully managed set piece - but as it stands their whole party has exploded and they're all running around on fire. If that was the plan, I think they maybe overshot what was needed.

I had us 7/8th in my head so we're outperforming my expectations on that at the moment. Who knows in the end though, I mean Pardew managed a 5th place finish somehow.

It's been that long since we were in the conversation for it that I stopped paying attention, but what placement grants UEFA cup entry again? 5th and 6th?

Agreed but right now they're polling at the level of being wiped off the face of the earth. They'll be back within respectable parameters again within a couple of years, that's the annoying thing.

So long story short, while this is an amusing drama, the upshot is that we'll end up with a new PM selected by the Tory MPs themselves, and who will have two years to steady the ship and make them look competent again. I think Truss may have been too useless too quickly for us really. Would have been great if she'd held off on this madness until she was a year in.

Yeah I have to admit I would have said at the start of the season that it was highly improbable, but at this point I would say I'm heading towards 50:50 on it depending how the season goes. I watched some of the Spurs game last night and they looked terrible tbh. Not remotely interested in trying to take the initiative. Some of this depends on whether Liverpool properly recover mind you - I don't see us breaking into a top 4 of Arsenal (on current form), City, Chelsea and Liverpool. I could see it if we just had to force our way past Spurs or Man Utd (i.e. if Liverpool just have a fully shit season).

I doubt there's anything stopping Labour from calling for a vote on it but they'd need enough Tories to go along with the process for it to get through. And a lot of those Tories would be quite literally signing their jobs away at this point in time, if they did so.

The uncertainty will be bad, the replacement will be a boost, would be my guess. The depressing thing about this is that they have two years to 'move on' from it - they'll put a stabilising person in now. Truth be told, unless it's Johnson, we may start to see the other side of the Tory party (Cameron style Tories) begin to come back into control. Which obviously enhances them in an electoral sense. The smart move would be for whoever they put in there to come in and draw an immediate line between the ERG fanatics and everyone else, claim to be a government of adults now etc.

There is no chance they're going to call a General Election - maybe if the polls were tighter they would consider it but as things stand it would be suicide. Unfortunately the only question we have ahead of us is whether it's Boris Johnson or Rishi Sunak, I fear. Not even sure which way I would want that to go, frankly. Also seems clear that they're intending to do whatever comes next without any sort of voting.

We're probably just about good enough to be in that conversation on paper, but it's going to be hard work to recover progress on some of the points dropped so far. While we're playing well and are difficult to beat, we haven't taken full points off any of our "rival" top 4 challenging teams so far (granted, Liverpool and Man Utd away) - that's something we would need to change for this to happen really. I think we look well set for top half/challenging for European slots at least so I would think the minimum aim for this season is on track.