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Matt

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Everything posted by Matt

  1. The fanbase410 proposal is too blunt an implement, appealing only to a small proportion of our fanbase. I think it overestimates how many fans have that sort of cash to invest, it grossly overestimates how willing fans are to potentially risk the long-term financial wellbeing of themselves and their family and critically restricts the ability of funds to come in from overseas. It's an innovative idea, but there cannot be an adviser in the land that would suggest a football club is a suitable investment for a pension scheme. It's nothing of the sort. If the club went to the wall, so would most (if not all) of your money. It's a risky equity investment. That's before we consider the chaos of fans voting on how the club is run. What is really needed is a number of moderately wealthy businessmen who are committed to the club but do not have the funds to purchase the club outright (clearly there are some). They put in an equity slice of say £20-30m on a sale price of £80m (still way too high). The eventual risks, rewards and decision making is down to those owners. On top of this comes a managed piece of debt, subscribed as a bond by fans. This can be done in relatively small chunks, (£500/£1,000), raising £50m, for example. This is much more accessible to the fanbase in the UK and overseas (although there would be tax implications for both). The interest will have to be paid six-monthly or annually and the principal amount repain on maturity (a mix of 3/5/7 years). Given the interest in the wellbeing of the club, the interest would likely be slightly below prevailing market rates (this would also stop any predators). There would have to be a plan in place to service the debt, although the debt could simply be rolled over into a new bond if there was sufficient interest and support for the running of the club. If the debts are repaid, the club is owned by the original group of investors to run or sell as they see suitable. Critically, this structure can maintain a level of trust between the board/owners and debtholders (supporters). Covenants in the debt ensure that no dividends are paid out while the debt is in place and excess cash can be directed to repay the debt (so the club cannot sell players and sit on the cash). There are 1001 variations on the above and it all depends on the balance between the appetite of investors and the support of the fans.
  2. So, someone wants to get involved in the sale of a football club but doesn't like nasty things being said on the internet? Come off it.
  3. It will have done. Then along came the wages.
  4. exactly. Survival in the premiership requires investment, and the desire to be successful, which a club like Newcastle UNited should desire, means debts. Unfortunately, it might not suit everyone to admit it [although they should realise it now] but its reality. No it doesn't. It means debt if the owners don't want to stump up any of their own cash, of course. Nothing wrong with well-structured debt- in fact any large company should use it. NUFC have never had a problem servicing their debt. Shame the same cannot be said about the wage bill.
  5. MA is going to be sorely diappointed if we get promoted and he thinks he can fill his boots. I doubt we'd sell for £100m then either- we'd need a huge investment in players just to scrape last-day survival.
  6. The statement (bravely assuming it is accurate) would suggest that the deal has been agreed with Ashley (at a price well over the odds) and that Moat needs to complete the deal with Barclays. It also opens the door to additional consortium members to come in, or for a fans group to purchase a minority stake alongside other consortium members. No-one should be under any illusion- the wage cutting will have to continue under Moat as there simply isn't enough money to invest in players. However no-one should be turning their noses up either- the club having the faith of the fans is absolutely pivotal to getting money into the club. When the Halls took over, they didn't put in a huge amount of money but they got the club and the fans in line and the cash rolled in. Barclays will want to cut the working capital facility- and quickly. There's no billionaire waiting to bail us out so we will just have to hope Moat can get the fans back on board, getting the cash through the turnstiles and getting ourselves up the hard way.
  7. A half-way house would be a supporter-funded bond. We know Moat does not have the means to buy and run the club out of his own cash and will need to work carefully with the banks. Instead he could replace this funding with supporter funding which would pay interest and could be rolled over at maturity. The bondholders would have no voting rights within the club but could receive the club (via a funding vehicle) in the event of financial difficulties. That way, supporters are paid back one way or another and it aligns the interests of equity holders and the debt providers.
  8. Shouldn't they should just copy their idea and run with it themselves.
  9. I don't think he'll turn up. He once falsely claimed before he was acting on police advice but I think this time OB would be minded to do just that. Imagine the scrum outside the ground!
  10. Joined in 2008, played in three seasons and last year was his debut season. That'll be right.
  11. That would be brilliantly devious. Moat bids with backers, backers are actually funded via Ashley. Bid pays off the Ashley loan and gets his £100m. Then club is rejuvinated, money flows in and happy friendly loan is gradually repaid, when in fact all it's doing is repaying Ashley, probably with a bit extra on top. Ashley gets his cash, Moat gets his prize- NUFC for next to nowt.
  12. I don't think he has a clue and probably still expects punters to turn up regardless and with the transfer window shut in little over 3 weeks, he won't be able to make any more sales and will be locked into those wages for a further 4 months. I don't think we'll go that long without considerable further injections of cash and if it's not going well on the pitch (presumably it wouldn't be) then he'd be throwing good money after bad. Just because he paid £150m for a club worth a third of that, shouldn't mean the next owners are saddled with the same problem.
  13. SP can't recommend unless he doesn't have funds and has made some form of binding offer- so on that basis all the press stuff last night was wayward? Now that a clear bid has been identified, a refusal to sell will likely put a major drain on further income and result in the club being completely worthless.
  14. Deal announced: Toon set for Re-moat Control A tough first year in the job: Moat: "I'm totally drained" And finally, the expose: Moat: I helped Robin Hood, portrayed as a fox in the Disney classic, to survive in me by breathing through a straw so that he evaded the clutches of the unpopular tyrant King John
  15. My gripe is that it seems to drop signal quite easily and take a while to get it back, but then so few phones have a proper aerial in them anyway it's not surprising. The apps are great- I don't use many of them but for web browsing and checking train times (using the National Rail app) is very useful. I was on O2 anyway and was a doddle to upgrade- tbh their customer services are top notch, even offering me refunds on stuff when I hadn't even asked for them.
  16. There's no evidence he did or didn't, bearing in mind how much goes out of the club on wages before transfer fees are even contemplated.
  17. Administration here we come? Not if he's putting in a further £40m it isn't. Tbh if the sale isn't going anywhere we might as well get on with the season.
  18. Under Shepherd/Hall the debt and wage bill had become unsustainable, and all the income streams (sponsorship, future season ticket sales) had already been mortgaged Administration was a virtual certainty if a sale didn't go through By marrying the debt up to the shares Ashley has ensured that whoever next buys the club will buy it for its true net value and the debt will finally be "written off" But administration is an eventual certainty if we are not sold this time round as well, just in a division below. Just as with the Halls, the cashflow situation is absolutely dire.
  19. All hinges on Lescott. Moyes looks like he's not going to cave in and I'm sure we'd gladly take some of City's gazillions. Putting this story out has just let City know they can get him for less than Lescott, but more than £10m.
  20. Shows how much he was fighting it too see the match through to the end. RIP.
  21. No, this sort of thing goes on all the time. Banks are reclaiming whole fleets of jets from the Middle East right now. They fly out the pilots en masse, and they bring back the planes and park them in a storage airfield. Big problem with planes in Russia and the Stans though, where it can be a little harder to reclaim the jets.
  22. No chance- if we're in sale mode then any decent bid will be accepted. We should have been selling players before now. Still this is better than waiting until the end of the window and being forced into fire sales.
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