End of Season Report

[Happy Face 29]

Given Ashley is running one of the most successful businesses in the UK, within one of the most difficult sectors, you have got to smile at some of the posts above suggesting the Club Board isn't up to the job.

 

You could also turn that statement into....

 

Given Ashley injected over £100m into a poorly performing but well supported football club and got it relegated you have wonder how hes upto the job of running one of the most successful businesses in the UK.

 

Skillfully ignoring the fact that the "injection" (along with the rabid cost cutting) was simply to keep the ship standing still and afloat and not a new capital investment, which if it were , would have given some validity to your point.

 

How much of it paid off the mortgage?

[Toonpack 7200]

Given Ashley is running one of the most successful businesses in the UK, within one of the most difficult sectors, you have got to smile at some of the posts above suggesting the Club Board isn't up to the job.

 

You could also turn that statement into....

 

Given Ashley injected over £100m into a poorly performing but well supported football club and got it relegated you have wonder how hes upto the job of running one of the most successful businesses in the UK.

 

Skillfully ignoring the fact that the "injection" (along with the rabid cost cutting) was simply to keep the ship standing still and afloat and not a new capital investment, which if it were , would have given some validity to your point.

 

How much of it paid off the mortgage?

 

As far as I know, his total "in" was circa £268 Mill, £132 mill to buy, £70 Mill debt repayments (of which some will be the mortgage, not sure specific amount) plus £66-ish mill working capital.

[Happy Face 29]

Given Ashley is running one of the most successful businesses in the UK, within one of the most difficult sectors, you have got to smile at some of the posts above suggesting the Club Board isn't up to the job.

 

You could also turn that statement into....

 

Given Ashley injected over £100m into a poorly performing but well supported football club and got it relegated you have wonder how hes upto the job of running one of the most successful businesses in the UK.

 

Skillfully ignoring the fact that the "injection" (along with the rabid cost cutting) was simply to keep the ship standing still and afloat and not a new capital investment, which if it were , would have given some validity to your point.

 

How much of it paid off the mortgage?

 

As far as I know, his total "in" was circa £268 Mill, £132 mill to buy, £70 Mill debt repayments (of which some will be the mortgage, not sure specific amount) plus £66-ish mill working capital.

 

So the £250M+ Ashley insists had to put in or Newcastle would have been out of existence isn't quite right, Shepherd would not have needed the £132M to buy, or most of the £70m to pay off the mortgage/debt immediately.

 

He'd have needed to find some proportion of the £66m working capital used to pay wages/costs...if only Ashley could have come in as an investor, with a view to buy once the debt was restructured.

Edited April 27, 2011 by Happy Face

[Qwertyo 0]

Wind Up Merchant.

 

But his point is correct. You can't belittle BP based on a disaster. Is Sony suddenly unsuccessful overnight based on their recent issue?

 

Thanks for the translation.

 

I wasn't belittling BP but pointing out it wasn't an example of a successful Blue Chip. It's safety record has been pants for years and it is not as well rated as others in its sector like Shell for example.

[Happy Face 29]

Wind Up Merchant.

 

But his point is correct. You can't belittle BP based on a disaster. Is Sony suddenly unsuccessful overnight based on their recent issue?

 

Thanks for the translation.

 

I wasn't belittling BP but pointing out it wasn't an example of a successful Blue Chip. It's safety record has been pants for years and it is not as well rated as others in its sector like Shell for example.

 

 

Or Sports Direct?

 

Imagine if someone put on their CV that they had years of experience in a blue chip company and it turned out they stacked trainers at Sports Direct.

[ChezGiven 0]

Wind Up Merchant.

 

But his point is correct. You can't belittle BP based on a disaster. Is Sony suddenly unsuccessful overnight based on their recent issue?

 

Thanks for the translation.

 

I wasn't belittling BP but pointing out it wasn't an example of a successful Blue Chip. It's safety record has been pants for years and it is not as well rated as others in its sector like Shell for example.

Irrelevant for the purposes of this discussion. However, BP is a successful company, whichever way you look at it but whatever...

 

SD is not even in the top 20 retailers in the UK. I do include companies with a high street footprint in that, not just companies classified as Retail. I dont know actually where they rank but i counted at least 20 on Forbes on a list of UK companies that SD was too small to make it onto.

 

The important point is that low margin / cheap tat sells well in a recession, SD's recent performance reflects the recent success of the low margin / cheap tat sector. Using SD's success in the recession to argue that his business sense is highly rated doesnt really wash for all the reasons i've highlighted.

[Qwertyo 0]

Wind Up Merchant.

 

But his point is correct. You can't belittle BP based on a disaster. Is Sony suddenly unsuccessful overnight based on their recent issue?

 

Thanks for the translation.

 

I wasn't belittling BP but pointing out it wasn't an example of a successful Blue Chip. It's safety record has been pants for years and it is not as well rated as others in its sector like Shell for example.

 

 

Or Sports Direct?

 

Imagine if someone put on their CV that they had years of experience in a blue chip company and it turned out they stacked trainers at Sports Direct.

 

You have missed the point. Which was that Sports Direct is not a Blue Chip. It is the most successful midcap retailer.

[Deano 0]

Gemmill, you said that Christmas Tree's expectations were low.

In 1996-97, Ginola was with us and we finished second. But he only made 24 appearances and only scored once. You can't argue he deserved it more than Zola. And as much of Toon supporter as I am, surely you're not suggesting he sould have gotten it over Cantona in '95-96? .)

 

and then you said this.

, people allow their expectation levels to sneak back up. Christmas Tree for instance, was adamant that Carroll was going nowhere in January (one prediction he doesn't like to bring up) and was sick when we sold him. But now he's bouncing again and it's simply because he's allowed a bit of silence from the idiots in charge to reset his expectations. Some people aren't that forgetful.

 

Okay, you use the word 'expectations' in 2 different ways, I can see that.

But regarding the use of the word 'expectations' in the FIRST way, what should our expectations be?

We should expect to challenge for Europe. We should expect to challenge for the two domestic cups. We should expect to fight to keep our best players and to sign players that demonstrate an ambition to improve.

 

None of this is rocket science.

 

Absolutely right Gemmil.

 

Thing is i think we can challenge for that next season with a good summer. A good summer in which i actually expect us to have.

 

If we keep Enrique then great, but only if he really wants to stay. If we dont then im not arsed, resigned to it, if he wants to go then thats not our fault nor is it us not wanting to keep our best players. If he does go, so long as we replace him with M'Bengue or Taiwo or alike il be happy.

 

I dont see any of our other key players leaving at all.

[Toonpack 7200]

So the £250M+ Ashley insists had to put in or Newcastle would have been out of existence isn't quite right, Shepherd would not have needed the £132M to buy, or most of the £70m to pay off the mortgage/debt immediately.

 

He'd have needed to find some proportion of the £66m working capital used to pay wages/costs...if only Ashley could have come in as an investor, with a view to buy once the debt was restructured.

 

Not that simple.

 

Don't forget that figure is "only" £66 million with the cost cutting we've seen and is just to stand still, he'd have had to find all of it, plus more - the accounts were only signed off by the auditors because Ashley (in this case) underwrote future shortfalls, someone would have had to do likewise and we'd just lost £34mill even with the existing debt not being due as a lump.

 

There was a significant amount of around £27mill owed on transfer fees which had to be paid sharpish, which was part of the £70 mill figure.

 

All in all it's about £25mill a year in new money needed (minimum), of which we'd probably have needed two years worth as a lump up front, again I stress, just to stand still and with the cost cutting we've seen.

 

Even with an all time record revenue of £99 Mill in 2008 we still lost £20 Mill (even with the help of transfer profits of £10.8 Mill)

 

The only amount that can really be discounted is the purchase price.

[Happy Face 29]

So the £250M+ Ashley insists had to put in or Newcastle would have been out of existence isn't quite right, Shepherd would not have needed the £132M to buy, or most of the £70m to pay off the mortgage/debt immediately.

 

He'd have needed to find some proportion of the £66m working capital used to pay wages/costs...if only Ashley could have come in as an investor, with a view to buy once the debt was restructured.

 

Not that simple.

 

Don't forget that figure is "only" £66 million with the cost cutting we've seen and is just to stand still, he'd have had to find all of it, plus more - the accounts were only signed off by the auditors because Ashley (in this case) underwrote future shortfalls, someone would have had to do likewise and we'd just lost £34mill even with the existing debt not being due as a lump.

 

There was a significant amount of around £27mill owed on transfer fees which had to be paid sharpish, which was part of the £70 mill figure.

 

All in all it's about £25mill a year in new money needed (minimum), of which we'd probably have needed two years worth as a lump up front, again I stress, just to stand still and with the cost cutting we've seen.

 

Even with an all time record revenue of £99 Mill in 2008 we still lost £20 Mill (even with the help of transfer profits of £10.8 Mill)

 

The only amount that can really be discounted is the purchase price.

 

As I alluded to previously though, when he arrived Ashley put a stop to the cutting that Shepherd had started and went daft increasing the wage bill, so I don't buy that Freddy necessarily would have had higher costs. Nor would Freddy have had the massive protests in 2008 and the accompanying boycott of club shops or associated drop in ticket sales. So income would have been higher too. Not to mention the extra income of not being relegated.

 

Why do you think Freddy would have had to find more than Ashley has?

[Toonpack 7200]

So the £250M+ Ashley insists had to put in or Newcastle would have been out of existence isn't quite right, Shepherd would not have needed the £132M to buy, or most of the £70m to pay off the mortgage/debt immediately.

 

He'd have needed to find some proportion of the £66m working capital used to pay wages/costs...if only Ashley could have come in as an investor, with a view to buy once the debt was restructured.

 

Not that simple.

 

Don't forget that figure is "only" £66 million with the cost cutting we've seen and is just to stand still, he'd have had to find all of it, plus more - the accounts were only signed off by the auditors because Ashley (in this case) underwrote future shortfalls, someone would have had to do likewise and we'd just lost £34mill even with the existing debt not being due as a lump.

 

There was a significant amount of around £27mill owed on transfer fees which had to be paid sharpish, which was part of the £70 mill figure.

 

All in all it's about £25mill a year in new money needed (minimum), of which we'd probably have needed two years worth as a lump up front, again I stress, just to stand still and with the cost cutting we've seen.

 

Even with an all time record revenue of £99 Mill in 2008 we still lost £20 Mill (even with the help of transfer profits of £10.8 Mill)

 

The only amount that can really be discounted is the purchase price.

 

As I alluded to previously though, when he arrived Ashley put a stop to the cutting that Shepherd had started and went daft increasing the wage bill, so I don't buy that Freddy necessarily would have had higher costs. Nor would Freddy have had the massive protests in 2008 and the accompanying boycott of club shops or associated drop in ticket sales. So income would have been higher too. Not to mention the extra income of not being relegated.

 

Why do you think Freddy would have had to find more than Ashley has?

 

Don't recall the cost cutting under Fred to be honest, we'd just recorded our record loss. Salaries went up £10 mill between 2005-2007 and up another £11.1 2007/9 which is comparable.

 

Match Day revenue dropped £4.6 million from 2007 to 2009 and Commercial by £8.2 over the same period (some was outsourced though so not sure what that deal effect was).

 

So the revenue "drop" (due to protests, boycotts etc) equals £12.8 Mill over three years but we were/are no longer paying interest (£6+ mill/year) on existing borrowing so the revenue drop was actually less than our savings on interest payments by about £6 Mill.

 

Revenues were: 2005 £87 Mill, 2006 £83.1Mill, 2007 £87.1Mill, 2008 £99.4Mill and 2009 £86.1Mill.

 

I don't think he would have had to find more than Ashley, but I am certain he would have had to find circa £100 mill over the piece.

 

My only point in all of this is, there is no doubt a significant amount of "new" money was needed, even if it was half as much as I believe (which given our annual loss history is extremely doubtfull IMO) I can't see where it would have come from other than someone with deep pockets.

[Happy Face 29]

Don't recall the cost cutting under Fred to be honest, we'd just recorded our record loss. Salaries went up £10 mill between 2005-2007 and up another £11.1 2007/9 which is comparable.

 

My point from the other thread....

 

Who's to say the wage bill would have kept worsening under Shepherd like it did under Ashley too? On the day Ashley bought the last of Shepherd's shares we also signed Viduka. He went on to bring in Geremi, Barton & Smith in his first summer, some of the most costly wastes of space the club has ever seen. The summer before Shepherd had stripped the payroll of Shearer, Bowyer, Boumsong and Viana. Shepherd was tightening his belt much more than Ashley was willing to.

 

What Shepherd seems to have realised had been excessive spending and was apparently ready to curb/offset, Ashley paid no heed to when he arived and went on increasing to at least an equal degree for 2 more years. He could afford to, but it's not something you can say Shepherd would have done too. Every player at the club following relegation was on a contract signed by Mike Ashley. If the wages were too high at that point, it was entirely his own doing.

 

Match Day revenue dropped £4.6 million from 2007 to 2009 and Commercial by £8.2 over the same period (some was outsourced though so not sure what that deal effect was).

 

So the revenue "drop" (due to protests, boycotts etc) equals £12.8 Mill over three years but we were/are no longer paying interest (£6+ mill/year) on existing borrowing so the revenue drop was actually less than our savings on interest payments by about £6 Mill.

 

Revenues were: 2005 £87 Mill, 2006 £83.1Mill, 2007 £87.1Mill, 2008 £99.4Mill and 2009 £86.1Mill.

 

I don't think he would have had to find more than Ashley, but I am certain he would have had to find circa £100 mill over the piece.

 

My only point in all of this is, there is no doubt a significant amount of "new" money was needed, even if it was half as much as I believe (which given our annual loss history is extremely doubtfull IMO) I can't see where it would have come from other than someone with deep pockets.

 

Yes indeed, but again, that's all about what we imagine could have happened. I feared the worst too. But on the other hand we could have been bought by any one of the billionaires to have come into the league since who've wanted nothing to do with buying from Ashley. Shepherd and Hall's shares could have dwindled to zero value and Ashley could have bought the club for a nominal amount if he agreed to take on the debt...then he'd have had £132M to invest in the team rather than being handed to them. We have no clue what would happen. I know the club would never have gone out of existence.

[Ollie Burtons Grandad 0]

 

Absolutely right Gemmil.

 

Thing is i think we can challenge for that next season with a good summer. A good summer in which i actually expect us to have.

 

If we keep Enrique then great, but only if he really wants to stay. If we dont then im not arsed, resigned to it, if he wants to go then thats not our fault nor is it us not wanting to keep our best players. If he does go, so long as we replace him with M'Bengue or Taiwo or alike il be happy.

 

I dont see any of our other key players leaving at all.

 

 

Are you being serious? Challenging for a European spot, like fuck. Trying to keep out of the bottom 3 more like. The summer will see us getting in cut priced shite, remember Pardew keeping Tevez on the bench at WHU as he did not rate him enough? Prize talent spotter. Lets see exactly how much FCB spends before we wax lyrical about european spots.............

Pardew has already said how much he rates Ferguson so you can take that as "Enrique can fuck off and we wont need to replace him" I do admire your optimism but expect you to be sorely disappointed in trusting the FCB and Pardew.

[Guest Your Name Here]

The board have sacked Hugton, sold Carroll, defaced the Gallowgate roof, pushed through a planning application to clad the exterior of the ground with naff billboards, tried to blame Shearer for our relegation, scrapped the Singing Section and claimed the long term objective was not to finish lower than tenth.

 

If that’s a B+.....

 

We’ve done better than OK this season and for that we have Hughton and the team to thank, and possibly Graham Carr if we believe his own hype. The board’s contribution has been needless instability and something like a £25m profit on transfers.

[Phil 6]

I would give the board a C minus for not using the Carroll deal to get something out of Chelsea - Sturridge, van aanholt or any of there youth team. They missed the boat and it's not the first time.

[sniffer 0]

I fail to see how we've done better than OK.

[Guest Your Name Here]

I fail to see how we've done better than OK.

I guess that depends on what you expected. Avoiding relegation was many people’s target and we look like doing that with a bit to spare.

[sniffer 0]

A couple of results one way or another and that bit to spare may not be that much. No cup runs. A handful of games that were enjoyable but not many more. Loss of Carroll. People pinning their hopes on ameobi, FFS.

 

A successful season for a club like Blackpool but just an OK season to me if that, nothing more for a club this size.

[Park Life 71]

A couple of results one way or another and that bit to spare may not be that much. No cup runs. A handful of games that were enjoyable but not many more. Loss of Carroll. People pinning their hopes on ameobi, FFS.

 

A successful season for a club like Blackpool but just an OK season to me if that, nothing more for a club this size.

 

BUT THE BOOKS HAVE BEEN BALANCED!!!

[Gemmill 36184]

Gemmill, you said that Christmas Tree's expectations were low.

In 1996-97, Ginola was with us and we finished second. But he only made 24 appearances and only scored once. You can't argue he deserved it more than Zola. And as much of Toon supporter as I am, surely you're not suggesting he sould have gotten it over Cantona in '95-96? .)

 

and then you said this.

, people allow their expectation levels to sneak back up. Christmas Tree for instance, was adamant that Carroll was going nowhere in January (one prediction he doesn't like to bring up) and was sick when we sold him. But now he's bouncing again and it's simply because he's allowed a bit of silence from the idiots in charge to reset his expectations. Some people aren't that forgetful.

 

Okay, you use the word 'expectations' in 2 different ways, I can see that.

But regarding the use of the word 'expectations' in the FIRST way, what should our expectations be?

We should expect to challenge for Europe. We should expect to challenge for the two domestic cups. We should expect to fight to keep our best players and to sign players that demonstrate an ambition to improve.

 

None of this is rocket science.

 

Absolutely right Gemmil.

 

Thing is i think we can challenge for that next season with a good summer. A good summer in which i actually expect us to have.

 

If we keep Enrique then great, but only if he really wants to stay. If we dont then im not arsed, resigned to it, if he wants to go then thats not our fault nor is it us not wanting to keep our best players. If he does go, so long as we replace him with M'Bengue or Taiwo or alike il be happy.

 

I dont see any of our other key players leaving at all.

 

Aye no offence, but you basically live in cloud cuckoo land. Your expectations for this summer just don't make any sense when compared with what we can realistically suspect.

 

When you went on X Factor, were you one of those kids that literally thinks that you're going to be the next big thing, right up until the point when Cowell goes "That's one of the worst things I've ever heard in my life". The look of utter fucking shock on your face...."You're joking right?"........"No I'm not joking".......cut to Cheryl wincing slightly and giving it the puppy dog eyes....."Sorry but that was really not very good".......Louis is actually just laughing at you. Simon starts laughing. Three nos. "Oh come on, give me a chance. I'VE GOT MORE SONGS!"........"It's a no." Just a look of utter confusion on your face - how can these people not hear your talent?

 

....at which point the bubble of delusion doesn't quite burst but definitely deflates a little. Until you get in that pod thing and tell Simon that he doesn't know what he's talking about, and what does he know about music anyway, you'll fucking show him. He'll see what Tiote's Nutz is all about!

 

The point I'm trying to make is that thinking positive is fine and all that, but when you stick to it to the point of delusion it becomes counter productive.

[Monkeys Fist 39272]

"I am become Gemmill, destroyer of worlds"

[Monroe Transfer 0]

Wait a moment... TN was on X Factor?

[StoneColdStephenIreland 74]

Aye no offence, but you basically live in cloud cuckoo land. Your expectations for this summer just don't make any sense when compared with what we can realistically suspect.

 

When you went on X Factor, were you one of those kids that literally thinks that you're going to be the next big thing, right up until the point when Cowell goes "That's one of the worst things I've ever heard in my life". The look of utter fucking shock on your face...."You're joking right?"........"No I'm not joking".......cut to Cheryl wincing slightly and giving it the puppy dog eyes....."Sorry but that was really not very good".......Louis is actually just laughing at you. Simon starts laughing. Three nos. "Oh come on, give me a chance. I'VE GOT MORE SONGS!"........"It's a no." Just a look of utter confusion on your face - how can these people not hear your talent?

 

....at which point the bubble of delusion doesn't quite burst but definitely deflates a little. Until you get in that pod thing and tell Simon that he doesn't know what he's talking about, and what does he know about music anyway, you'll fucking show him. He'll see what Tiote's Nutz is all about!

 

The point I'm trying to make is that thinking positive is fine and all that, but when you stick to it to the point of delusion it becomes counter productive.

 

[Christmas Tree 4005]

The Boardroom. B+

 

Compared to recent seasons, this one has definitely being an improvement. Most of the time they have just got on with the immediate task at hand which was sorting out the financial mess the club was in. The promise of a break even season this year and a profitable one next, can only be good news for the rebuilding program.

 

Major football decisions were the Hughton sacking (which I agree with) and the Carroll sale (which Im still not happy about but understand the decision).

 

 

 

The Manager C

 

The fact that he actually has something to say is a breath of fresh air compared to Hughton. (Who will always be thanked for his service to the club). A promising start with some notable free kick adjustments has given way to some poor line ups, albeit the dregs of the barrel he was left with at times. Looking forward to judging him properly this time next year.

 

 

 

The Team B+

 

Without doubt they have given us some fantastic memories this season that Im sure most of us will treasure for a lifetime. While not overshadowed, the shine has been taken off due to some of the abysmal displays (such as Blackpool) that have also been served up. Injuries and suspensions have cost us dear, however I still think this is a squad that with some sensible additions, will do us proud next year.

 

 

 

The Media D

 

Think the media have really become watered down and far too interested in tweeting crap and serving up one liners from the latest cosy press conference when they could be doing so much more.

 

 

 

Outlook A

 

I think Ashley has now achieved his first goal by stabilising the clubs finances and taking us from financial loss to profit. He will now look to bolster the "stock" (playing staff) to enable the club to continue forward while having players who can take us on, then be sold on at a profit (if required) rather than players who will sit and bleed us dry.

 

I expect Nolan and Barton will both sign new contracts within a fortnight and Enrique will depart for pastures new. I also expect to see 2 or 3 additions who will improve the first team and several others who will improve the squad.

 

I expect a much more consistent team next year that will be exciting to watch and could just surprise a few people.

 

 

One down, one to go.

[Monkeys Fist 39272]

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