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i don't agree with this op-ed but it's quite a good read, almost like it was written by an intelligent CT. the message is the same: don't panic, it's business as usual

 

http://www.independent.ie/opinion/columnists/david-mcwilliams/calm-down-the-brexit-referendum-result-is-not-a-21stcentury-sarajevo-34842130.html

A very good read. Thanks for posting xxx

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Club Tropicana (CT remix '18)   Let me take you to the place Where membership's Britain's disgrace Blue flag with lots of stars. Where strangers take you by the hand And welcome you

In World War II the average IQ of the combat soldier was 100. In Parliament Square it was nineteen. N-n-n-n-nineteen.    

I remember a few people saying, some years ago when this was all kicking off, that maybe Brexit is what this country needs to finally move on from the Imperial past and embrace a global future. The fa

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the brexit consensus was based on bullshit, which the leave side were all quick to admit was rubbish all along.

 

the consensus on our economic outlook is more clear.

 

gloom marketwatch for thursday: expect stering to fall to below $1.30 on back of latest UK current account data.

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The ECB and some European countries have their own problems. Spain, Portugal and Italy are in breach of their budget rules. ECB is pumping billions a month in to keep the euro steady...And these countries don't have their own currency for countermeasures. Italy is 139 % debt of GDP. We're far healthier than these.

 

http://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-eu-commission-forecasts-idUKKCN0XU0OM

 

 

Italy’s banks, and its government, face difficult decisions. The danger is that their pain spreads further.

The problem is obvious. Many Italian banks — or most, according to pessimistic observers — do not have enough capital. In addition, they labour under €360bn of bad loans, €200bn of which are extremely bad. The weakest banks desperately need to raise capital, but investors are hard to find. The bigger lenders have committed to underwriting new share issues for their weaker rivals but they, in turn, have needed external support."

 

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/f5355f50-061e-11e6-9b51-0fb5e65703ce.html

Edited by Park Life
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Just on passporting as mentioned by Renton, if the fuckwits who negotiate don't get that then I'm afraid the UK will be fucked completely. I know I'm an insider quisling on this but the cost of lost jobs and tax receipts from the city would be monumentally damaging.

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Part of the problem is you are asking me to give you the answers to a very complex organisational and negotiating plan that the best brains in the land are only beginning to grapple with. :lol:

 

Obviously I can't do that and I have no idea what basis of a plan Gove or Boris have rattling around in their heads. (None you cry).

 

As I said on Brexit day 1, what European leaders say in the first couple of months while feelings are raw, might well be different when tempers cool and their own economical and political realities kick in.

 

I can only give you my wish list / thoughts rattling in my head that made me come to my decision.

 

Would like (In no order)

 

Access to single market for trade and services

Control over immigration / borders

Free trade deals with rest of world

Sovereignty over our own laws / policies (eg Democratic accountability / vat on fuel)

Separation from an union that wants to expand further geographically and politically.

Separation from the unstable Eurozone and the problems we could get dragged into financially and due to free movement.

UK decision on TTIP

 

It's late, I may have missed some off.

 

Now you will tell me I can't have all them based on current relationships and what is currently being said by the EU. But that's for the negotiations to sort out.

 

Even if we had to have free movement of people, the other stuff would be worth it, however imo they will have to deliver something on immigration otherwise a certain section of the 52% will be unhappy.

 

The only big problem for me is the level of pain we have to endure to get there. If it's "choppy waters" that can be controlled then my vision of the end game will be worth it. If it's a disaster ours few years, then that's a heavy price to pay that wouldn't sit well with me.

 

I appreciate that if you don't think the majority of that list is a good place to be, then no choppy waters to get there would be acceptable.

 

I also bare in mind this is a left leaning board and there have been lots of comments about Tories pinching holiday time off etc. Naturally I don't see any of that happening, particularly given the bloody nose the political class have just been given.

 

Anyway, an honest view. Right or wrong, time will tell.

Appreciate the answer, obviously I don't see it like that. I just don't get why you think this is worth the risks and hurt involved. Strikes me as being completely reckless, at best. I can only understand it from the pov of people with little to lose, not yourself. Edited by Renton
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Just on passporting as mentioned by Renton, if the fuckwits who negotiate don't get that then I'm afraid the UK will be fucked completely. I know I'm an insider quisling on this but the cost of lost jobs and tax receipts from the city would be monumentally damaging.

Surely the negotiating cards will be in the EU's hands? That's what worries me. And it's not just bankers who'll go, it'll be all the support staff, it would be catastrophic.

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Nandy fits the bill in a way, young gobby Manc :good:

 

Am pretty sure Kier Starmer was the Blair governments legal advisor when the Iraq war vote was held....after Chilcott he may be damaged goods, but in light of the events of the last week fuck knows how all that will turn out in the wash...

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Theresa May sat on the sidelines of the brexit debate and that makes her a credible option for Tory leader.

 

Corbyn sat on the sidelines of the brexit debate and that leaves him in an untenable position as Labour leader.

 

And they wonder why people disengage from party politics.

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I'm starting to suspect we might see some kind of Brexit lite - or quite possibly even a second referendum. Interesting to hear Sapin breaking ranks and not ruling out concessions on immigration. "Everything is on the table", I think he said.

 

The vote was mainly won on immigration. If an emergency brake was secured in new negotiations, a second referendum could be won quite easily - you're only talking about a two per cent swing.

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He was the party leader at the time. Her position in the future would be to unite both sides of the Tory party. It's a silly comparison.

It's bollocks spouted to justify goals completely unrelated to Brexit. Which is why the membership would vote Corbyn in again.

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He was the party leader at the time. Her position in the future would be to unite both sides of the Tory party. It's a silly comparison.

This.

 

As far as the Labour leadership is concerns, Dan Jarvis is the guy the Tories are most scared of. Widower, war hero. The fact he's a blairite means he'll struggle to unite such a divided party. You need someone between him and Corbyn. Someone young and charismatic, who can speak to all factions. Fuck knows who that is.

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"What the Brexit debacle should teach us is that referendums are more often than not populist tools that allow demagogues to use the politics of resentment in a democratic way. Sure, referendums are democratic. But, they can also be deadly."

 

http://www.historymatters.group.shef.ac.uk/brexit-lesson-yugoslavia/

 

:boogie:

What a sobering article. Whilst I don't expect a civil war, I do fear for the stability of the union and the resentment that is being unleashed. This has been the shittest of decades so far, and it keeps getting shitter.

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It's bollocks spouted to justify goals completely unrelated to Brexit. Which is why the membership would vote Corbyn in again.

I agree that it isn't necessarily about Brexit, more about Corbyn's complete inability to lead a united PLP.

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What would we do about the ire of the working classes in that scenario though?

I presume that's addressed to me.

 

I think an emergency brake on immigration would go a long way to winning them over,

 

You'd still get some nutters who would argue it isn't enough but some kind of immigration control is the key issue with a lot of voters. That combined with widespread buyers remorse, now we're seeing a lot of project fear's warnings weren't overblown, would be enough to produce a convincing remain result, if a second referendum is called.

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