Park Life 70 Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 One of the fascinating things about the Greek election campaign has been listening to Syriza candidates reply to questions about what to do if the European Central Bank (ECB) becomes angry, or the markets panic. Miranda Xafa, a former IMF board member and supporter of the centrist Potami party, said in an emollient voice (in a Radio 5 Live interview), “I am sure the ECB will be patient.” The gulf between Syriza and all the other parties was suddenly, dramatically clear: the leftwing party no longer thinks of the ECB as its dad. It does not seek its patience. It will not take its terms at any price. This is the necessary precondition for credible leftism: a rejection of the bodies, mostly central banks and attendant forecasting agencies, currently in charge. You can’t build a new game to their rules." http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2015/jan/25/syriza-uk-left-labour This has the makings of a really important moment in the history of Europe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PaddockLad 14847 Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 So what happens when Greece run out of money next month?.... I admire their stand but it appears doomed... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Park Life 70 Posted January 26, 2015 Author Share Posted January 26, 2015 (edited) So what happens when Greece run out of money next month?.... I admire their stand but it appears doomed... I don't know. But it's gonna be interesting. Doom was predictied for Iceland as well. They're doing really well now. Jailed a few bankers and re-wrote their entire strategy. We shall see. I'm loving this cause of the historical context of Greece. If any country can make a stand againt the monolith of the ECB and its cohorts it might well be the Greeks. The conditions are right. The poeple have had the right amount of suffering and are ready to fight. Historically when the conditions are right and the poeple are energised they've nearly always won. I'd tell the ECB I was going to default and see what happens. Edited January 26, 2015 by Park Life Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PaddockLad 14847 Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 Yeah that would seem to be the only tactic available to them...it may only be a few days though before the people who take to the streets to support this act turn on the new government when the cashpoints run dry and the dead get left unburied etc etc Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Park Life 70 Posted January 26, 2015 Author Share Posted January 26, 2015 (edited) Yeah that would seem to be the only tactic available to them...it may only be a few days though before the people who take to the streets to support this act turn on the new government when the cashpoints run dry and the dead get left unburied etc etc They could just start printing a free flaoting drachma. Greece must appeal to forces outside the EU. Then shit will get real. 1. Cancel the debt. 2. Second all excessive private wealth. 3. Jail a few ex politicians, fraudsters, bankers. 4. Arm the people. 5. Get some nice shirts. Edited January 26, 2015 by Park Life Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PaddockLad 14847 Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 Well all that didn't go that well for them in the 70s Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Park Life 70 Posted January 26, 2015 Author Share Posted January 26, 2015 Well all that didn't go that well for them in the 70s Large collars drained the public purse. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meenzer 14133 Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 Have you seen how many of the fraudsters are now Syriza members? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Park Life 70 Posted January 26, 2015 Author Share Posted January 26, 2015 The ECB and the Germans can't win here. Debt cancellation is the only way Greece can recover and stay in the EU. If they don't get that they leave and there is a massive domino crisis of conficence in the euro across Spain and Portugal etc....Plus many fragile financial entities will go to the wall and the eurozone will be back to where it was 5 years ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Park Life 70 Posted January 26, 2015 Author Share Posted January 26, 2015 Have you seen how many of the fraudsters are now Syriza members? Don't care the leader looks sexy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PaddockLad 14847 Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 It's not all good for the old bubbles today ..... Big Demis has croaked it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sonatine 10105 Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Park Life 70 Posted January 26, 2015 Author Share Posted January 26, 2015 (edited) http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2015/jan/26/syriza-victory-lifted-greek-politics-cynicism-hope Even that soft shite Owen Jonea is getting in the mood. Edited January 26, 2015 by Park Life Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChezGiven 0 Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 When public spending is bigger than tax revenue, governments have to borrow money from the bond market to pay their teachers and nurses. If you default, the bond market wont lend you any more money. Greek default therefore means leaving the Euro and hugely devaluing the domestic currency, which will in turn mean no one buys foreign products and everyone consumes domestic products. I guess the trick is to devalue to such an extent that the real wage levels of public workers fall to such an extent that borrowing for them is not essential (or something, i've not really thought it all the way through). However, even with the drachma, suddenly balancing the current account and the deficit seems like a massive long shot. Bottom line is that even under a floating drachma, the Greeks will still need to borrow on the foreign debt markets to function in the short and long term. One thing is clear to most, Greece's debt is not manageable and Merkel's prudent east german housewife act has gone on long enough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Park Life 70 Posted January 26, 2015 Author Share Posted January 26, 2015 When public spending is bigger than tax revenue, governments have to borrow money from the bond market to pay their teachers and nurses. If you default, the bond market wont lend you any more money. Greek default therefore means leaving the Euro and hugely devaluing the domestic currency, which will in turn mean no one buys foreign products and everyone consumes domestic products. I guess the trick is to devalue to such an extent that the real wage levels of public workers fall to such an extent that borrowing for them is not essential (or something, i've not really thought it all the way through). However, even with the drachma, suddenly balancing the current account and the deficit seems like a massive long shot. Bottom line is that even under a floating drachma, the Greeks will still need to borrow on the foreign debt markets to function in the short and long term. One thing is clear to most, Greece's debt is not manageable and Merkel's prudent east german housewife act has gone on long enough. They have to go to the drachma. Historically loads of things that seemed impossible turned out they weren't....Like free education, pensions, free healthcare. All these things at one time or another were said to be pipedreams. Fuvk people were saying the abolition of slavery would destroy America. There are a miariad of reasons why austeriy will never work. The main one is that it supresses the economy and job creation and cuts money to the periphery. This combines in a toxic manner with the overproduction of goods (waste). Germany is the main culprit in the greek catastrophe. Firstly letting Greece into the euro (a debacle) and then lending it enough to buy German military hardware and Siemens trains and debt repayments. Some 80% of the loans didn't touch the actual Greek infastructure in any meanigful way. It was money given to keep the wheel turning at the behest of Deutsche Bank and the ECB. Germay owes Greece money for war reparitions. Let's call it 400billion in todays numbers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Park Life 70 Posted January 26, 2015 Author Share Posted January 26, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dr Gloom 20060 Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 Markets have priced in grexit already. Some analysts even reckon the EU would be better off with Greece out. This is without doubt the right move for Greeks. They suffered nothing but pain in exchange for the bailouts up to now. Arguably should have left the euro a while back. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Park Life 70 Posted January 26, 2015 Author Share Posted January 26, 2015 Markets have priced in grexit already. Some analysts even reckon the EU would be better off with Greece out. This is without doubt the right move for Greeks. They suffered nothing but pain in exchange for the bailouts up to now. Arguably should have left the euro a while back. All us deluded lefties are watching with baited breath. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedfernMag 0 Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedfernMag 0 Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 Good write-up here from the Irate Greek outlining some of the reasons why he thinks SYRIZA ended up in coalition with the Greek equivalent of UKIP. https://theirategreek.wordpress.com/2015/01/26/strange-bedfellows/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Park Life 70 Posted January 27, 2015 Author Share Posted January 27, 2015 (edited) Varoufakis, 53, studied in Britain and has also taught in Australia, Greece and the US. In pre-election interviews he promised to end what he described as Greece’s humanitarian crisis, slice a chunk off its €320bn debt mountain, and destroy the country’s oligarchs who “viciously suck the energy and the economic power from everybody else”. A prolific blogger and media commentator who dresses in brightly coloured shirts and jeans, Varoufakis – who has dual Greek and Australian nationality – abandoned a job at the University of Texas to join Tsipras’s team in the election runup, and celebrated Sunday’s result by paraphrasing Welsh poet Dylan Thomas, saying: “Greek democracy today chose to stop going gently into the night. Greek democracy resolved to rage against the dying of the light.” http://www.theguardian.com/world/2015/jan/27/greek-pm-alexis-tsipras-economist-yanis-varoufakis Varoufakis has long criticised Europe’s handling of the economic crisis, attacking the conservative economic orthodoxy that demands budget rigour and market-friendly structural reforms. That approach amounted to “a cynical transfer of banking losses on to the shoulders of the weakest taxpayers”, he said on his blog earlier this month. He has also likened the tough terms of bailout deals to “fiscal waterboarding” that risked converting southern Europe into “a form of Victorian workhouse”. Edited January 27, 2015 by Park Life Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedfernMag 0 Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 @@Park Life There's a good interview with Yanis on Doug Henwood's Behind the News show from a couple of months ago that's worth a listen: http://yanisvaroufakis.eu/2014/11/24/taking-stock-of-the-euro-crisis-interviewed-by-doug-henwood-for-behind-the-news/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChezGiven 0 Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 Paraphrasing Thomas on failing to accept our own death? Aye that works. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Park Life 70 Posted January 27, 2015 Author Share Posted January 27, 2015 @@Park Life There's a good interview with Yanis on Doug Henwood's Behind the News show from a couple of months ago that's worth a listen: http://yanisvaroufakis.eu/2014/11/24/taking-stock-of-the-euro-crisis-interviewed-by-doug-henwood-for-behind-the-news/ What does he mean by setting up a Europe wide investment bank? And I don't think the ECB will go for centralising debt... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meenzer 14133 Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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