The Run-In

[Gemmill 52780]

Exec Summary (because thick people) :

 

In a worst case scenario outcome where everyone around us picks up maximum points, we can still guarantee CL qualification in 7 out of 8 possible scenarios if we get a minimum of 6 points from our remaining games. 

 

Anything less than 6 points and we need teams around us to start dropping points, so those scenarios haven't been considered. 

 

 

 

Been looking at results combos this morning, and looking at different scenarios. 

 

Assumptions as follows: 

 

• Everyone takes maximum points from their remaining games, except for when they play one another
• When they do play one another, we consider both maximum points returns (i.e. Forest beat Chelsea vs Chelsea beat Forest)
• Villa (+6) and Forest (+14) will not catch Newcastle (+21) and Chelsea (+21) on GD

 

Taking the above assumptions, then: 

 

If we get 7 points from our remaining three games, regardless of how those points are earned and regardless of results combinations in the other games, then we absolutely cannot be beaten to a CL place. 

 

If we get 6 points from our remaining three games, there is only one scenario (we lose to Chelsea, and Forest beat Chelsea) where we would be at risk of not making it to a CL place.  In that one scenario, we've still got a chance but we would need to be ahead of Chelsea on GD. 

 

Summary table showing final point positions for each scenarios as follows: 

 

 

 

Shout if you see anything that I've done wrong. 

Edited 2 hours ago by Gemmill

[thebrokendoll 10888]

far be it from me to point out the bleeding obvious but....

 

how about the scenario where we get less than 6 points?

Edited 2 hours ago by thebrokendoll

[Gemmill 52780]

I didn't think I needed to post "and if we get less than 6 points then in basically all scenarios we'd be fucked because even Villa would finish ahead of us" but apparently somebody needed that clarifying for SOMEBODY. 

[thebrokendoll 10888]

I want a spreadsheet chart.

[Gemmill 52780]

You want a fucking hiding is what you want. 

[thebrokendoll 10888]

Just now, Gemmill said:

You want a fucking hiding is what you want. 

 

I mean all of this is already being discussed in other threads, but no you had to start a new topic because you crave the attention.

bit like when you sprained your ankle.

[Gemmill 52780]

I thought somebody needed to take control of the situation and actually do the work. Instead of you sat with a bowl of mung beans, trying to count out different amounts for each team. 

[Holden McGroin 8052]

Draw with Chelsea, lose at Arsenal, win v Everton. Will that be enough?

 

I don’t think Chelsea will be an easy game as I’ve stated many times here. Their starting eleven is very good and can beat anyone on their day. Jackson being back is also a big boost, as although he is a shit finisher he leads the line decently for them.

Edited 2 hours ago by Holden McGroin

[thebrokendoll 10888]

1 minute ago, Holden McGroin said:

Draw with Chelsea, lose at Arsenal, win v Everton. Will that be enough?

 

I don’t think Chelsea will be an easy game as I’ve stated many times here. Their starting eleven is very good and can beat anyone on their day. Jackson being back is also a big boost, as although he is a shit finisher he leads the line the decently for them.

 

don't confuse the fucker man, he's been working on his original post since 18.30 yesterday evening.

[Gemmill 52780]

1 minute ago, Holden McGroin said:

Draw with Chelsea, lose at Arsenal, win v Everton. Will that be enough?

 

 

Not even close. We'd be on 67 points and Villa would be on 69 (applying assumptions outlined). We'd be fucked. 

[Gemmill 52780]

Lads. Applying the assumptions outlined, if we get anything less than 69 points (6 from our remaining 3 games), we cannot finish in the CL places. Doesn't matter how we get those points.

 

Obviously if other teams drop points, that changes, but what I was doing is looking at the "where are we cast iron safe regardless of other teams winning all their games?" 

[thebrokendoll 10888]

Just now, Gemmill said:

Lads. Applying the assumptions outlined, if we get anything less than 69 points (6 from our remaining 3 games), we cannot finish in the CL places. Doesn't matter how we get those points.

 

Obviously if other teams drop points, that changes, but what I was doing is looking at the "where are we cast iron safe regardless of other teams winning all their games?" 

at last..

 

the penny drops.

[Gemmill 52780]

A very stupid man with dreadlocks. 

[Holden McGroin 8052]

I think the next weekends fixtures will be make or break.

 

Newcastle v Chelsea

Bournemouth v Villa.

 

Villa have Spurs and Man Utd after that. ABSOLUTE BANKER 6 points.

[PaddockLad 19749]

5th place over the past 10 years required 66, 67, 69, 66, 62, 70, 70, 75, 66, 64. Total of 675, so 67.5 on average

[RobinRobin 12979]

35 minutes ago, Gemmill said:

A very stupid man with dreadlocks. 

[RobElliott 2026]

1 hour ago, Gemmill said:

Exec Summary (because thick people) :

 

In a worst case scenario outcome where everyone around us picks up maximum points, we can still guarantee CL qualification in 7 out of 8 possible scenarios if we get a minimum of 6 points from our remaining games. 

 

Anything less than 6 points and we need teams around us to start dropping points, so those scenarios haven't been considered. 

 

 

 

Been looking at results combos this morning, and looking at different scenarios. 

 

Assumptions as follows: 

 

• Everyone takes maximum points from their remaining games, except for when they play one another
• When they do play one another, we consider both maximum points returns (i.e. Forest beat Chelsea vs Chelsea beat Forest)
• Villa (+6) and Forest (+14) will not catch Newcastle (+21) and Chelsea (+21) on GD

 

Taking the above assumptions, then: 

 

If we get 7 points from our remaining three games, regardless of how those points are earned and regardless of results combinations in the other games, then we absolutely cannot be beaten to a CL place. 

 

If we get 6 points from our remaining three games, there is only one scenario (we lose to Chelsea, and Forest beat Chelsea) where we would be at risk of not making it to a CL place.  In that one scenario, we've still got a chance but we would need to be ahead of Chelsea on GD. 

 

Summary table showing final point positions for each scenarios as follows: 

 

 

 

Shout if you see anything that I've done wrong. 

 

Think your father in law has been rubbing off on you  

[PaddockLad 19749]

Just now, RobElliott said:

 

Think your father in law has been rubbing off on you  

Dirty bastard 

 

[Monkeys Fist 46530]

Any minute now…

 

[Howmanheyman 38069]

Those opta percentages made me laugh but at those giving them much credence, they veer dramatically after every week so by nature are going to change by results so I'd love to see our percentage chance pre villa to now?  Not saying we won't do it but some of the crack you heard from some people, particularly from some of the pundits, that had us already qualified was fucking bizarre, again, especially from pundits who rarely mention us and normally have half our squad sold off. It was never going to be as cut and dried as they made out.

[Renton 24535]

This is why I said it's the Chelsea game that's must win. A point yesterday was unexpected from me and most welcome, it wasn't the crucial fixture though. Will be a stressful match. 

[Alex 37894]

2 minutes ago, Howmanheyman said:

Those opta percentages made me laugh but at those giving them much credence, they veer dramatically after every week so by nature are going to change by results so I'd love to see our percentage chance pre villa to now?  Not saying we won't do it but some of the crack you heard from some people, particularly from some of the pundits, that had us already qualified was fucking bizarre, again, especially from pundits who rarely mention us and normally have half our squad sold off. It was never going to be as cut and dried as they made out.

If there’s 10 games left (for example) they are probably more useful from a prediction pov. Because I think the run the possible results through a simulator 1000s of times. Then you get the most likely outcome based on that. Not saying that’s foolproof of course. But when you come down to the wire they obviously veer wildly because a single result changes so much (or can) due to the lack of remaining games. You can also just look at the table now and see exactly what you need to do in about 5 seconds. 

[Kid Dynamite 7985]

I said this in another thread, but if Palace beat Forest tonight, we would only need 6pts from our last 3 games to guarantee a CL finish. 

[Gemmill 52780]

1 minute ago, Kid Dynamite said:

I said this in another thread, but if Palace beat Forest tonight, we would only need 6pts from our last 3 games to guarantee a CL finish. 

 

Aye Palace beating Forest would be very welcome. Means they can win all their remaining games after that, and still be behind us on GD if we get 6 points. 

[Rayvin 6488]

Palace looked really good against Villa in the cup, so I am hopeful they can get something tonight.