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The Run-In


Gemmill
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12 minutes ago, The Fish said:

I think this is correct:

- Newc 63, max 72 
- ⁠Villa 60, max 69 
- ⁠Forest 61, max 70 
- ⁠Chelsea 63, max 72
- ⁠But both can’t get max, and if Chelsea and Forest draw, max is 68 and 70

So:
- 9 or 7 points = guaranteed top 5
- ⁠6 points of any kind means we are ahead of Villa due to GD
- ⁠7 points of any kind we are ahead of Forest unless a 10 goal swing
- ⁠beat Chelsea and another win = guaranteed top 5 as Chelsea and Forest cannot both then get 69
- ⁠beat Arsenal and Everton and lose to Chelsea it gets tricksy if everyone wins out. Would rely on Forest final game draw OR Chelsea win (to stay ahead of Forest) OR Forest win but we get better GD than Chelsea in last three games (to stay ahead of Chelsea), which is tough if they beat us. 
- ⁠draw to Chelsea and win another, need Villa to draw one no matter what happens. A Chelsea win at Forest means we   are good. A draw and we are good assuming Forest don’t turn over big GD. A Forest win means we need them to draw another OR we better Chelsea GD. 
- ⁠less than 4 points and we need a lot of help

 

As I say, I think this is right. 

In summary, 
- that point at Brighton was massive
- ⁠our run of high scoring wins against ManU, Leic, Ips and Palace has been invaluable
- ⁠Forest playing Chelsea is a huge help
- ⁠beat Chelsea and we are pretty much good
- ⁠draw to Chelsea and we are relying on Villa dropping points
- ⁠lose to Chelsea and we are in the shit.

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36 minutes ago, The Fish said:

- ⁠beat Chelsea and we are pretty much good
- ⁠draw to Chelsea and we are relying on Villa dropping points
- ⁠lose to Chelsea and we are in the shit.


Exactly this. Of all the 'six pointers' we've even be involved in, this one is huge.

There are two things that leave me a bit more positive about it - 

- Villa play ahead of us this weekend and it's away to Bournemouth. Can easily see them dropping points in that one.
- Chelsea will have a second 'six pointer' to deal with.

I still think it'll end with us, Arsenal, Man City & Forest finishing top 5. Our point was massive, but so too was Forest's last night. 

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We can both draw and lose to Chelsea as long as we win the two that come after. Bournemouth just went to the Emirates and won, and it's not like we haven't already beaten those tits 3 times this season. 

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2 hours ago, Craig said:


Conversely he's considered on of the best strikers in Europe and is coveted by several of the leading clubs. If we can't provide him with CL football and the likes of Barcelona go on the hunt for him, I'd expect his exit would be inevitable. 

I said back in March before the Cup Final that if you asked me what was more important, winning silverware or qualifying for the CL, I'd struggle to answer. Winning the cup was such an emotional experience, it was important in terms of the decades this club have been devoid of success. But most important for the future, is definitely CL qualification.

The Partizan Belgrade penalty shoot-out failure in 2003 is seared into memory. We went on a hell of a run in the UEFA Cup that year, but ultimately we lost ground on those teams around us. We need to avoid that happening again.

If Barcelona or Real or maybe even PSG come calling not many players turn that down CL team or not, so potentially our CL qualification is academic in that regard.

 

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40 minutes ago, Rayvin said:

 

This is exactly my view of it too. If we beat Chelsea then we're pretty much there, if we lose then we're pretty much done. I'm not even sure a draw helps tbh as I don't see Villa fucking up the home stretch.

 

I honestly would be surprised if we don't manage this though - we are a good team. We are a better team than Chelsea ffs, albeit Joelinton is a miss.

 

 

 

I watched them v Fulham (who were atrocious) and they were less than convincing to say the least. I could see Bournemouth do us and Eddie a good turn on Sat night.

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2 hours ago, Toonpack said:

This, he doesn't strike me as a down tools/hissy-fit sort of lad tbh, certainly seems quite reserved with little ego. He's still young, well paid (likely to get more in the summer from us) and he's got 3 years on his contract.


Everything you say is correct but he’s a striker. From what I hear a lot of old pros saying, the best strikers are incredibly selfish and focussed on themselves. That’s the only reason I’d be worried.

 

Then again which sides in the top European leagues are guaranteed PL football? I’m not convinced about Liverpool and it’s not that long since they didn’t qualify for it. Man City are pretty much the only shoo in along with PSG and the three big Spanish sides.

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5 minutes ago, ewerk said:


Everything you say is correct but he’s a striker. From what I hear a lot of old pros saying, the best strikers are incredibly selfish and focussed on themselves. That’s the only reason I’d be worried.

 

Then again which sides in the top European leagues are guaranteed PL football? I’m not convinced about Liverpool and it’s not that long since they didn’t qualify for it. Man City are pretty much the only shoo in along with PSG and the three big Spanish sides.

 

I think we can say that Liverpool are guaranteed PL football for the foreseeable future mind :lol:

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2 minutes ago, Rayvin said:

 

I think we can say that Liverpool are guaranteed PL football for the foreseeable future mind :lol:


Why? It was only last season they were playing in the EL.

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1 minute ago, ewerk said:


Why? It was only last season they were playing in the EL.

 

I assume you mean CL football...? I was just picking up a typo but your commitment to it makes me now think if my whole universe is back to front. The very fabric of my reality is challenged.

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4 minutes ago, Rayvin said:

 

I assume you mean CL football...? I was just picking up a typo but your commitment to it makes me now think if my whole universe is back to front. The very fabric of my reality is challenged.


:lol: Fair enough, my mistake. But still, IMAGINE!

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42 minutes ago, Craig said:


Exactly this. Of all the 'six pointers' we've even be involved in, this one is huge.

There are two things that leave me a bit more positive about it - 

- Villa play ahead of us this weekend and it's away to Bournemouth. Can easily see them dropping points in that one.
- Chelsea will have a second 'six pointer' to deal with.

I still think it'll end with us, Arsenal, Man City & Forest finishing top 5. Our point was massive, but so too was Forest's last night. 

 

forest were poor yesterday and have been dropping points. i think they might be the ones to miss out.

 

the thing that gives me confidence with the fixtures against chelsea and arsenal coming up is these are the sorts of games we've done well in this season. the players seem to raise their game when they play the big boys, eddie often gets it right tactically and the crowd will be well up for it on sunday, despite the early start, because we all know what's at stake.

 

chelsea's record at our place in recent years has been poor. it's all set up for a barnstorming end to the season. i'd rather this than fixtures against midtable sides such as brighton, brentford, bournemouth etc who we "should" beat on paper. we've struggled more in those ganes this season. 

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2 minutes ago, Dr Gloom said:

 

forest were poor yesterday and have been dropping points. i think they might be the ones to miss out.

 

the thing that gives me confidence with the fixtures against chelsea and arsenal coming up is these are the sorts of games we've done well in this season. the players seem to raise their game when they play the big boys, eddie often gets it right tactically and the crowd will be well up for it on sunday, despite the early start, because we all know what's at stake.

 

chelsea's record at our place in recent years has been poor. it's all set up for a barnstorming end to the season. i'd rather this than fixtures against midtable sides such as brighton, brentford, bournemouth etc who we "should" beat on paper. we've struggled more in those ganes this season. 


Forest look like they have the easiest run in though. Leicester and West Ham up next which I think they’ll get 6 points from.

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Just now, Dr Gloom said:

forest were poor yesterday and have been dropping points. i think they might be the ones to miss out.


You think? 

I thought aside from the last 10 mins they were the better team, the penalty was against the run of play - they definitely deserved a point. I noticed as well that Yates & Hudson-Odoi aside, their injuries have been dealt with. 

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1 minute ago, Holden McGroin said:


Forest look like they have the easiest run in though. Leicester and West Ham up next which I think they’ll get 6 points from.


Yeah that's a valid point. Forest should win on Sunday. Chelsea and Us can't both take 3 points so either Forest would draw level with both of us, or leap ahead of one of us. 

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We could conceivably be up shit creek on the last game of the season IF

 

- Forest win the next 2 games (pretty much expected)

- We draw with Chelsea and get beat off Arsenal

 

That would leave Chelsea and Forest to pass it across their back lines for the entire 90 minutes as both collecting a point will get them CL football.

 

 

It all comes down to NUFC v Chelsea for me. Win that and we'll be in pole position. Draw will keep us in the running but we'd need something at Arsenal. Lose and we are fooked.

 

Note: This scenario also assumes Villa won't get max points. If Villa did win all their games then Forest would have to go for it as their GD is worse than Chelsea.

 

 

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9 minutes ago, Craig said:


You think? 

I thought aside from the last 10 mins they were the better team, the penalty was against the run of play - they definitely deserved a point. I noticed as well that Yates & Hudson-Odoi aside, their injuries have been dealt with. 

 

i only watched the second half, but from what i saw forest were well off it and hanging on in the end. 

 

murillo went off injured too. he's been a big player for them. i dunno if it's a serious one or not 

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3 minutes ago, Holden McGroin said:

We could conceivably be up shit creek on the last game of the season IF

 

- Forest win the next 2 games (pretty much expected)

- We draw with Chelsea and get beat off Arsenal

 

That would leave Chelsea and Forest to pass it across their back lines for the entire 90 minutes as both collecting a point will get them CL football.

 

 

It all comes down to NUFC v Chelsea for me. Win that and we'll be in pole position. Draw will keep us in the running but we'd need something at Arsenal. Lose and we are fooked.

 

Note: This scenario also assumes Villa won't get max points.

 

 

 

Aye was talking about this with a mate earlier. This is the nightmare scenario where those two get to take the piss on the last day and both qualify. 

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1 hour ago, Rayvin said:

Arsenal supposedly have 160m to spend. Supposedly. That's their entire budget though.

 

Chelsea could probably sell themselves to themselves or something.

 

That's all I've got. I don't think he's leaving this summer.

Exactly, we are going to end up having a better season than arsenal anyway.

 

We won one of two cup competitions and we will both be in the champions league. 
 

If he goes to Chelsea then he’s a lunatic.

 

None of the European heavy hitters need/want/can afford him, so any move this summer would be a sideways step.

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1 hour ago, Rayvin said:

 

This is exactly my view of it too. If we beat Chelsea then we're pretty much there, if we lose then we're pretty much done. I'm not even sure a draw helps tbh as I don't see Villa fucking up the home stretch.

 

I honestly would be surprised if we don't manage this though - we are a good team. We are a better team than Chelsea ffs, albeit Joelinton is a miss.

 

 

 

Villa fans will be saying roughly the same about us. 

 

They've got Bournemouth, Tottenham and Man Utd.

Now, Bournemouth are playing really well this year as we've found out to our cost, as have Arsenal (6pts), Man City (3pts & FA Cup) and Nottingham Forest (4pts). And Villa are midtable for points won on the road.

Tottenham are shit, there's no getting away from it. Buuuuuuuut... No.. I've got nothing. 16th placed team, pre-Europa League final (you'd assume), at home, and it's Spurs? That's more of a home banker that's ever been banked at home by a Banker Homeboy.

Manchester United however... Villa have 5 wins against Manchester United since 1995. Bogey team.

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7 minutes ago, The Fish said:

 

Villa fans will be saying roughly the same about us. 

 

They've got Bournemouth, Tottenham and Man Utd.

Now, Bournemouth are playing really well this year as we've found out to our cost, as have Arsenal (6pts), Man City (3pts & FA Cup) and Nottingham Forest (4pts). And Villa are midtable for points won on the road.

Tottenham are shit, there's no getting away from it. Buuuuuuuut... No.. I've got nothing. 16th placed team, pre-Europa League final (you'd assume), at home, and it's Spurs? That's more of a home banker that's ever been banked at home by a Banker Homeboy.

Manchester United however... Villa have 5 wins against Manchester United since 1995. Bogey team.

 

That would be a pretty solid run in during times gone past as well :lol:

 

I think we'll get over the line in the end but I have this nagging concern that if we struggle against Chelsea then it'll energise Forest.

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villa v bournemouth and us v chelsea are massive games that will go a long way to deciding what happens next.

 

if we beat chelsea and villa lose then villa are done and it's almost certain to be a shoot out between forest and chelsea on the final day for the remaining CL spot. 

 

we simply have to win on sunday. it's the most important league game of the season and for that reason i think we will. these players have shown this season they're up for the big games. 

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