adios

Very happy with a point but I'm defo due a nervous breakdown before the season's out.

Joselu looks anything but a natural finisher; really hope it's confidence.

Fair point.

Hopefully paid by a bunch of Geordies dressed up as dogs.

How long did we see it for against Brighton? They didn't seem to be occupying the same space or anything, but they certainly hadn't clicked (yet).

Sorry. "Would you agree that profitable sports betting is all about making better decisions than the market to the point where you can more than beat the bookies' vig?" If the above argument is correct, every time @The Fish outsmarts the market to the point where he beats the vig (even if it's new vig) he increases his expected value. In reality, he's probably just enhancing his losses a little bit with the extra juice, but that theory is sound for a winning gambler.

@Ant needs to code it so that every time someone links to RTG it links to Lemon Party instead.

Yes please.

Would you agree that profitable sports betting is all about making better decisions than the market to the point where you can more than beat the bookies' vig?

Ooh, couple of interesting choices there.

As a matter of interest, are you paying a penalty for cashing out early? ie. are the odds when cashing out shorter than they should be? And, on average, what are the odds on your whole accumulator vs what you're getting when you cash out? I could defo make an argument that Fish's strategy is more profitable than letting it ride but I fear the Quiff might actually have an aneurysm.

Think it comes in at half past?

Having said all that, anyone not betting on the draw with Liverpool is burning money.

I understand that most people who bet, bet for fun, not profit. I don't bet for fun.

I don't bet sports but I can totally understand this. It gives you even more entertainment because you're sweating the cashout as well as the results.

You get a small dopamine boost regularly instead of a large dopamine boost rarely.

I just assume @The Fish is having a bit of fun and isn't intending to pay the mortgage with the winnings any more than he would expect with the lotto. So the aim is for him to maximise his enjoyment, which from listening to him on the podcast he gets a laugh out of cashing out early. And he gets that way more frequently than if he'd let it ride. I also assume bookies take some sort of "vig" for cashing out early because they can prey on people's aversion to risk, but the act of cashing out early in itself doesn't reduce your expected value.

The bookies' dream is to have pretty much everyone gambling with them. Yes, probably even the Quiff.

Was it you?

It's complex Mathematics tbf.

Only just fully appreciated this one.

Dicks in Machina.