ewerk 26441 Posted December 2, 2018 Share Posted December 2, 2018 52 minutes ago, Rayvin said: He was further behind in the polls last time and came to almost even with them. He was 64 seats off a majority, that's not 'almost even'. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rayvin 4964 Posted December 2, 2018 Share Posted December 2, 2018 21 minutes ago, Renton said: You still don't get it. He should have won it, comfortably; he should be miles ahead in the opinion polls. This is the worst Tory government ever, without exception. What I didn't predict last time was how inept May would be as a campaigner and what a shit manifesto she would serve up. And yet, he didn't win. Keep believing he would win a future GE all you like, he won't. Because at least 50% of the population can't abide him, including many Labour supporters. Ok. I'm going to stick with my view thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rayvin 4964 Posted December 2, 2018 Share Posted December 2, 2018 (edited) 9 minutes ago, ewerk said: He was 64 seats off a majority, that's not 'almost even'. And 8 seats off being PM, several of which were held by a string. Or was it 12? Either way you know what I mean. Edited December 2, 2018 by Rayvin Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ewerk 26441 Posted December 2, 2018 Share Posted December 2, 2018 I’m not sure I do know what you mean. Unless you think that he could’ve formed some grand coalition with the SNP and Lib Dems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rayvin 4964 Posted December 2, 2018 Share Posted December 2, 2018 (edited) 1 hour ago, ewerk said: I’m not sure I do know what you mean. Unless you think that he could’ve formed some grand coalition with the SNP and Lib Dems. You dont think that would have happened? Neither of those two parties would have joined with or sought to enable the Tories. Anyway who cares, it didn't happen. I have a lot of respect for your view, and Renton's, and i dont dismiss your opinions generally, but neither of you have a great track record in predicting the political landscape. I think Renton has admitted as much multiple times. Corbyn IMO is simply waiting for the moment, when a GE is called, to go on the front foot. Presumably on the basis that people are stupid and have short memories. That much makes sense to me. His Brexit holding position is ludicrous but other than that he hasn't done a lot wrong by me. If he has a narrow poll margin either way when a GE is called, he'll win it. Edited December 2, 2018 by Rayvin Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ewerk 26441 Posted December 2, 2018 Share Posted December 2, 2018 3 minutes ago, Rayvin said: Anyway who cares, it didn't happen. I have a lot of respect for your view, and Renton's, and i dont dismiss your opinions generally, but neither of you have a great track record in predicting the political landscape. I think Renton has admitted as much multiple times. Who does? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alex 30452 Posted December 2, 2018 Share Posted December 2, 2018 CT, obvs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rayvin 4964 Posted December 2, 2018 Share Posted December 2, 2018 35 minutes ago, ewerk said: Who does? No one, but I'm backing myself on this one after my successes with Trump and the previous GE (measured success at least) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Renton 17825 Posted December 2, 2018 Share Posted December 2, 2018 1 hour ago, Rayvin said: I think Renton has admitted as much multiple times. The political landscape is so volatile nobody knows what will happen next. I mean it's possible now May may be held in contempt of parliament. Is that unprecedented? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rayvin 4964 Posted December 2, 2018 Share Posted December 2, 2018 17 minutes ago, Renton said: The political landscape is so volatile nobody knows what will happen next. I mean it's possible now May may be held in contempt of parliament. Is that unprecedented? Agreed, so... I'm gonna stick with my view on this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ewerk 26441 Posted December 2, 2018 Share Posted December 2, 2018 1 hour ago, Rayvin said: Corbyn IMO is simply waiting for the moment, when a GE is called, to go on the front foot. Presumably on the basis that people are stupid and have short memories. That much makes sense to me. His Brexit holding position is ludicrous but other than that he hasn't done a lot wrong by me. If he has a narrow poll margin either way when a GE is called, he'll win it. There's no chance of the Tories calling an election while they're so divided over the Withdrawal Agreement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rayvin 4964 Posted December 2, 2018 Share Posted December 2, 2018 Yeah, agree with that too. I said further up that i dont think we'll get one. This all came about because AH was calling Corbyn out for not being front and centre on this issue and i was merely trying to suggest that he needs to pick his moment because, as everyone keeps saying, the masses are fed up of Brexit and campaigning on it before it's actually meaningful may be detrimental. Then i got pulled into a GE debate but initially, the above was all i wanted to say..! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Christmas Tree 3997 Posted December 2, 2018 Author Share Posted December 2, 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RobinRobin 9242 Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 12 hours ago, Rayvin said: Corbyn IMO is simply waiting for the moment, when a GE is called, to go on the front foot. Presumably on the basis that people are stupid and have short memories. That much makes sense to me. His Brexit holding position is ludicrous but other than that he hasn't done a lot wrong by me. If he has a narrow poll margin either way when a GE is called, he'll win it. Looking from the outside, though, the issue which will always haunt him is that he clearly favours Brexit, but has no alternative plan to put forward for a UK post-Brexit. Surely, to be an effective opposition which wants to govern, he needs to set out his plan. It is no good just hoping for a GE, because then if successful you do actually need to have a plan which you could run with now. After all, that is the problem the UK is facing now, i.e. no one knew what a post-Brexit meant when voting in the first place. I assume no one voted for what is actually available. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Andrew 4226 Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 16 minutes ago, RobinRobin said: Looking from the outside, though, the issue which will always haunt him is that he clearly favours Brexit, but has no alternative plan to put forward for a UK post-Brexit. Surely, to be an effective opposition which wants to govern, he needs to set out his plan. It is no good just hoping for a GE, because then if successful you do actually need to have a plan which you could run with now. After all, that is the problem the UK is facing now, i.e. no one knew what a post-Brexit meant when voting in the first place. I assume no one voted for what is actually available. Jobs first brexit...whatever that is, since its totally undefined and literally impossible to deliver. Just like most of the other "positive "brexits. @Rayvinunderstand if you don't answer this but I'm curious about a phrase you used earlier. A perfect storm. If it was a perfect storm that didn't result in JC as PM, what does it take to get him there? A better perfect storm? A perfecter storm? Jobs first perfection? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rayvin 4964 Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 1 hour ago, Andrew said: Jobs first brexit...whatever that is, since its totally undefined and literally impossible to deliver. Just like most of the other "positive "brexits. @Rayvinunderstand if you don't answer this but I'm curious about a phrase you used earlier. A perfect storm. If it was a perfect storm that didn't result in JC as PM, what does it take to get him there? A better perfect storm? A perfecter storm? Jobs first perfection? I would argue that the difference is that his baseline starting position in the polls is much better now than it was last time, so a similar perfect storm this time will be enough. Remember he was around the mid 20s last time... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ewerk 26441 Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 You're attributing Labour's improving poll numbers in 2017 to Jeremy Corbyn's effective campaigning rather than Theresa May's catastrophe of a campaign. The thing is, people haven't suddenly forgotten just how bad May was/is. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Christmas Tree 3997 Posted December 3, 2018 Author Share Posted December 3, 2018 Labours fortunes only really changed in the days after the “moneytree” manifesto leaked. A similar manifesto without Corbyn / McDonnel and they could romp home. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rayvin 4964 Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 4 hours ago, ewerk said: You're attributing Labour's improving poll numbers in 2017 to Jeremy Corbyn's effective campaigning rather than Theresa May's catastrophe of a campaign. The thing is, people haven't suddenly forgotten just how bad May was/is. I am indeed. Her campaign was poor but i dont see why it wouldn't be this time. You think she's going to discover some charisma down the back of the sofa? It was more Corbyn than her. Actually forget that, it was more Momentum than either of them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alex 30452 Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 I can’t really get my head round potentially another general election happening with both parties going into it with the same two leaders Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ewerk 26441 Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 42 minutes ago, Rayvin said: I am indeed. Her campaign was poor but i dont see why it wouldn't be this time. You think she's going to discover some charisma down the back of the sofa? It was more Corbyn than her. Actually forget that, it was more Momentum than either of them. But May was clearly exposed as being an awful PM in the last election, it isn't like her numbers have been boosted since then due to powerful performances. What I'm saying is that if Corbyn's Labour got a ten point boost in the polls over the duration of the last election campaign then you shouldn't expect the same now as they're both known quantities. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rayvin 4964 Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 3 hours ago, ewerk said: But May was clearly exposed as being an awful PM in the last election, it isn't like her numbers have been boosted since then due to powerful performances. What I'm saying is that if Corbyn's Labour got a ten point boost in the polls over the duration of the last election campaign then you shouldn't expect the same now as they're both known quantities. I see what you're saying but honestly, Corbyn has been so invisible since then that I genuinely do think his sudden visibility might be a surprise to the electorate once more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Carr's Gloves 3206 Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 22 minutes ago, Rayvin said: I see what you're saying but honestly, Corbyn has been so invisible since then that I genuinely do think his sudden visibility might be a surprise to the electorate once more. Seriously?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rayvin 4964 Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 Was kinda tongue in cheek that time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Christmas Tree 3997 Posted December 3, 2018 Author Share Posted December 3, 2018 The attorney general on his feet in Parliament right now. Outstanding performance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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