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2023/24 - Generic NUFC Chat


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12 minutes ago, Dr Gloom said:

 

If i was a villa fan, i'd be starting to dream after the weekend. they're on a charge 

 

Brentford (a)

Man United (a)

Wolves (a) - it's a derby, which does weird things

Liverpool (a)

Brighton (h)

 

Nee chance.

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1 minute ago, Gemmill said:

 

Brentford (a)

Man United (a)

Wolves (a) - it's a derby, which does weird things

Liverpool (a)

Brighton (h)

 

Nee chance.

 

it looks tough on paper but they're on a mad run of form: 7 wins and a draw from their last 8 games 

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2 minutes ago, Dr Gloom said:

 

it looks tough on paper but they're on a mad run of form: 7 wins and a draw from their last 8 games 

Villa are on an unbelievable run of form, but it's a run of form. 

 

Watkins is over-performing given the chances that fall to him and their defence is benefiting from profligacy of the opponent. They were 100% the better side against us, but like I said in the match thread, this was as much to do with us being utterly garbage, as it was to do with them being good. 

 

They'll have a game where Watkins' finishing doesn't cut the muster and a game where the opponent is more clinical. If a team can sit deep against them Watkins won't have half as many chances, and Konsa and Mings are not fast. Villa may come unstuck against Wolves and Fulham. Never mind Man Utd, Brighton, and Liverpool.

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1 hour ago, Dr Gloom said:

Our remaining fixtures:


5 home games:

Spurs, Southampton, Arsenal, Leicester & Brighton. 

 

3 away games:

Everton, Leeds & Chelsea 

 

We’re on 56 points. What do we need? Another 14? The consensus is 70 points  usually guarantees top 4.


Beat Spurs, Southampton, Leicester, Leeds. Plus a couple of draws.
 

Feels like we’re almost there if we can forget about the no show at Villa and beat spurs on Sunday. 
 

The only anxiety is if that Villa performance weighs on the players and they carry it into the next game. Lose to spurs and the momentum for the run in shifts massively. 

 

 

5 wins and a draw will guarantee us finishing above Liverpool who, I suspect, will finish 5th.

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19 minutes ago, The Fish said:

Villa are on an unbelievable run of form, but it's a run of form. 

 

Watkins is over-performing given the chances that fall to him and their defence is benefiting from profligacy of the opponent. They were 100% the better side against us, but like I said in the match thread, this was as much to do with us being utterly garbage, as it was to do with them being good. 

 

They'll have a game where Watkins' finishing doesn't cut the muster and a game where the opponent is more clinical. If a team can sit deep against them Watkins won't have half as many chances, and Konsa and Mings are not fast. Villa may come unstuck against Wolves and Fulham. Never mind Man Utd, Brighton, and Liverpool.


You and Gemmill talk about this Villa “run” . 
 

How is it different to the good run of form we had after January last season, October /November this season and March/April this season?  Strikes me that if a team is in a good run of form it will come to an end at some point regardless of who the club actually is, which appears to be the distinction you’re making here. Are you saying our good form at various points is built on rock solid foundations and any blips are just that and that Villa are just fuckin lucky?  Or are you saying that we’re PiF’s Newcastle United and we’re just better than Villa in every single facet of the sport, except for actually playing the game of football itself going by the last set of available data ie last Saturday between 3 & 5 pm?  :unsure:

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32 minutes ago, The Fish said:

Villa are on an unbelievable run of form, but it's a run of form. 

 

Watkins is over-performing given the chances that fall to him and their defence is benefiting from profligacy of the opponent. They were 100% the better side against us, but like I said in the match thread, this was as much to do with us being utterly garbage, as it was to do with them being good. 

 

They'll have a game where Watkins' finishing doesn't cut the muster and a game where the opponent is more clinical. If a team can sit deep against them Watkins won't have half as many chances, and Konsa and Mings are not fast. Villa may come unstuck against Wolves and Fulham. Never mind Man Utd, Brighton, and Liverpool.

 

villa's players and fans will have that feeling you get when you're on a charge. we know what it's like. you feel like you can beat anyone. 

 

we've just been on our second great run of form this season. the spurs game is massive. beat them and we have one foot in the champions league and can put the villa no show down as a blip. if it marks the end of our good run and we return to our early 2023 form, things don't look as clever for the run in.

 

i don't think we can overstate how big the spurs game is for our season in terms of points and momentum. this is one that actually can be filed as a must win, six pointer, season defining, *insert cliche of choice here* 

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2 minutes ago, Gemmill said:

I don't think it's must-win. A draw would be fine if other results went our way. Must-win suggests we can't get CL if we lost, and that's not the case.

 

there aren't many games that can ever technically be called "must-win" but this feels like a big one. beat them and we have daylight between us and the chasing pack with just seven games left.  

 

lose and it galvanises spurs, who are in a slump, puts them level on points with us and suddenly the form teams below them are snapping at our heels. 

 

a draw wouldn't be the end of the world but if we win, i think we'll get top 4. 

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23 minutes ago, PaddockLad said:


You and Gemmill talk about this Villa “run” . 
 

How is it different to the good run of form we had after January last season, October /November this season and March/April this season?  Strikes me that if a team is in a good run of form it will come to an end at some point regardless of who the club actually is, which appears to be the distinction you’re making here. Are you saying our good form at various points is built on rock solid foundations and any blips are just that and that Villa are just fuckin lucky?  Or are you saying that we’re PiF’s Newcastle United and we’re just better than Villa in every single facet of the sport, except for actually playing the game of football itself going by the last set of available data ie last Saturday between 3 & 5 pm?  :unsure:

 

Our run was backed up by the eye test and by performance metrics. Theirs isn't.  They'll get found out because you can't rely on consistently scoring from poor chances, or consistently benefiting from other teams wasting their good chances. 

 

Under Eddie Howe, Newcastle have scored and conceded about as many as you'd expect given the chances for and against. Villa under Emery have scored more and conceded fewer. It's not sustainable. Emery's style (basically a back 6 with 2 narrow attacking midfield and 2 forwards) is unpicking a lot of teams at the minute, but someone will crack it soon enough. As I said, it's a good system to handle the high-press, but a sitting that digs in and hit them on the counter should get a fair bit of joy. 

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57 minutes ago, The Fish said:

They'll have a game where Watkins' finishing doesn't cut the muster and a game where the opponent is more clinical.

 

Futurama Writing GIF by HULU

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4 minutes ago, Gemmill said:

I'm just trying to help you out. I didn't want you going into a Brentford 3-3 draw in November tailspin!

 

i'm still in team sausage. it will take quite a nosedive to fuck up from here plus we have a superior goal difference, a game in hand and five home games out of 8 on our side. 

 

the one thing i would say is our form has been streaky. so far we have been on two amazing runs of form this season and two runs where we struggled to convert draws into wins. hopefully we're not about to head into our third patchy run of form just at the wrong time. 

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While not a must win it's pivotal in terms of the response to Saturday. 

Win or draw playing well and we should qualify. 

Lose playing like we did against Villa and we won't as confidence will drain. 

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1 hour ago, The Fish said:

 

Our run was backed up by the eye test and by performance metrics. Theirs isn't.  They'll get found out because you can't rely on consistently scoring from poor chances, or consistently benefiting from other teams wasting their good chances. 

 

Under Eddie Howe, Newcastle have scored and conceded about as many as you'd expect given the chances for and against. Villa under Emery have scored more and conceded fewer. It's not sustainable. Emery's style (basically a back 6 with 2 narrow attacking midfield and 2 forwards) is unpicking a lot of teams at the minute, but someone will crack it soon enough. As I said, it's a good system to handle the high-press, but a sitting that digs in and hit them on the counter should get a fair bit of joy. 


So you’re backing this claim of a mere “run” for Aston Villa with the same stats that told you that we’d beat them on Saturday? … not sure why you’ve left yourself to that admittedly cheap shot Dave but there you go :lol: 

 

Just a question, does comparing Watkins scoring streak with Miggy’s earlier this season have any relevance here? He stopped scoring and our results dropped off after the WC break, which correct me if I’m wrong is what you have suggested will happen to Villa once a team stop Watkins, or is that a completely different barrell of monkeys because “STATS” ?? 

 

I think medium to long term we’ll have more success than Villa but I think you can’t prove that by an applying stats that as Saturday shows prove the square root of fuck all. Some mentioned poor first half displays in our preceding two games before the game, it’s almost as if the stats only looked at one side of the equation though . Was there a set of stats that suggested we were going to play poorly for 90mins? If there was you had no interest in posting them on here . I get that stats can help you see things your eyes can’t (you were right about Everton’s early season form being an illusion 👍) but I think this is trickier to call. If Villa finish in a European spot that’s at least a good an achievement for their coach as Eddie Howe turning everything around for us last season, which will render their  Xg & Xgc stats completely irrelevant. 
 

Villa are not without finiancial backing and Emery has improved the performance levels of the entire squad. What does that remind you of?.. am more than happy to be where we are but it just seems you’re ruling out Villa doing well because of trust in data that shows they’re over achieving. Isn’t that similar to us saying that NUFC are “ahead of schedule”? We’re ahead largely because Liverpool, Spurs and Chelsea have been comparatively fuckin rubbish this season. Xg doesn’t show that 👍

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6 minutes ago, PaddockLad said:

We’re ahead largely because Liverpool, Spurs and Chelsea have been comparatively fuckin rubbish this season. Xg doesn’t show that 👍

 

Actually 56 points after 30 games would have had us in the CL spots in each of the last three seasons.

 

image.png.27a03d576d8e9c86231c7c682d733946.png

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7 minutes ago, ewerk said:

 

Actually 56 points after 30 games would have had us in the CL spots in each of the last three seasons.

 

image.png.27a03d576d8e9c86231c7c682d733946.png

 

 

5th, only had to go back 1 season for that stat, how did you get 3?

 

https://www.worldfootball.net/schedule/eng-premier-league-2021-2022-spieltag/30/

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1 hour ago, PaddockLad said:


So you’re backing this claim of a mere “run” for Aston Villa with the same stats that told you that we’d beat them on Saturday? … not sure why you’ve left yourself to that admittedly cheap shot Dave but there you go :lol: 

 

Just a question, does comparing Watkins scoring streak with Miggy’s earlier this season have any relevance here? He stopped scoring and our results dropped off after the WC break, which correct me if I’m wrong is what you have suggested will happen to Villa once a team stop Watkins, or is that a completely different barrell of monkeys because “STATS” ?? 

 

No, it's the same deal Miggy was outperforming his xG and when his form returned to somewhat par his goal return dove off a cliff. The difference is that Olli Watkins accounts for 32% of Aston Villa's non-Penalty chances, 33% of their goals. Miggy accounts for 13%, and 24% respectively. So we're not as reliant on Almiron as they are on Watkins. If Harry Kane (33% and 42%) snaps his ankle in a punting accident, Spurs' form will suffer way more than ours would without Miggy.

 

1 hour ago, PaddockLad said:

I think medium to long term we’ll have more success than Villa but I think you can’t prove that by an applying stats that as Saturday shows prove the square root of fuck all. Some mentioned poor first half displays in our preceding two games before the game, it’s almost as if the stats only looked at one side of the equation though . Was there a set of stats that suggested we were going to play poorly for 90mins? If there was you had no interest in posting them on here . I get that stats can help you see things your eyes can’t (you were right about Everton’s early season form being an illusion 👍) but I think this is trickier to call. If Villa finish in a European spot that’s at least a good an achievement for their coach as Eddie Howe turning everything around for us last season, which will render their  Xg & Xgc stats completely irrelevant. 
 

 

Stats aren't "This is what will happen" it's just, "This is what has happened". Stats cannot account for the entire team shitting the bed, no. But what can? A post-match "Ah I knew they would do that"? Nobody thought Newcastle United would surrender so meekly to Aston Villa, nobody. Not our fans, not the bookies, not the experts, not their fans. It was an aberration. If Villa do finish in Europe it's an outstanding performance by Emery and he deserves huge credit. I've never said otherwise. All I've said (and Gemmil too) is that they've been on a run of fixtures where they don't create a lot and give up plenty, and yet they've won games. 

 

In 20 of their 31 games, they've scored more than you'd expect, in 18 of their games they've conceded less than you'd expect. They're giving up, on average, 1.42 xGA a game. For clarity, a penalty is 'only' worth 0.7xG, so in other words the Aston Villa Defence is so leaky you're as good as getting 2 penalties a game against them. Other teams with a comparably generous defence are Southampton, Leicester, Leeds. It's not sustainable. Not without changing the way they play. 

 

1 hour ago, PaddockLad said:

Villa are not without finiancial backing and Emery has improved the performance levels of the entire squad. What does that remind you of?.. am more than happy to be where we are but it just seems you’re ruling out Villa doing well because of trust in data that shows they’re over achieving. Isn’t that similar to us saying that NUFC are “ahead of schedule”? We’re ahead largely because Liverpool, Spurs and Chelsea have been comparatively fuckin rubbish this season. Xg doesn’t show that 👍

 

I honestly think you're comparing apples and oranges here. Villa are overachieving in terms of results vs performances. Emery has done wonders and I'm sure they'll be a force next season once he gets some more players in and can tweak their style a little more. However, I'm purely talking about their current run of form. They've been 'out played' in several of their games, but come away with a win. 

 

Us being ahead of schedule is more about how well we're performing, our results, and our league position. We're scoring and conceding roughly what you'd expect given the chances either way, we're beating teams below us and competing with the best teams in the league, and we're 4th in the league in April.

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