Gemmill 34558 Posted October 23, 2019 Share Posted October 23, 2019 15 minutes ago, NJS said: It keeps being said that it would and I don't get it - GEs can take 6 weeks and I don't see any difference. Some fit barrister wife I follow on twitter has done some work on this and she thinks 6 weeks is very doable if the will is there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ewerk 26433 Posted October 23, 2019 Share Posted October 23, 2019 (edited) Six weeks my arse. Firstly you need to decide on the question. Is it going to be Johnson's deal vs remain, no deal vs remain, EEA/EFTA vs remain. And the details of each option are going to have to be explicitly laid out. The question then has to be tested by the electoral commission which is takes at least two months. We're then going to need legislation passed to allow for the referendum. There will be demands that EU citizens get to vote, that 16 year olds get to vote, that all four nations have to agree etc etc. You have to remember that this will all be happening under a GNU so consensus will have to be reached on each issue and that alone is going to delay proceedings. Then the EC has to decide who the official campaigns are, then we need time for campaigning. TLDR; never listen to women. Edited October 23, 2019 by ewerk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rayvin 4964 Posted October 23, 2019 Share Posted October 23, 2019 49 minutes ago, Gemmill said: Heseltine on Sky News saying he doesn't think Johnson can win an election. Says he'll lose seats in Scotland and to the Lib Dems and to assume that they can then make up for all these losses by taking seats from Labour in the North is a massive gamble. Fucking hell, almost makes me want to give them their election. It is not obvious to me at all that Johnson can win a GE. Even in the polls as they are, the probable outcome is another minority Tory government with an overall remain parliament. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rayvin 4964 Posted October 23, 2019 Share Posted October 23, 2019 (edited) 2 hours ago, Gemmill said: As soon as the EU confirm the extension to end Jan, the opposition parties should slam in a VONC, form the GNU, amend the fuck out of Johnson's deal and take it to a referendum. If they could get their acts together, this would be the sexy play. The problem with this IMO is actually that there are a significant number of Labour rebels who outright oppose it. I think these rebels would take it if we're post GE and their seats are safe for another 5 years, but with a GE imminent it's never going to get through. We have to do this the high stakes way, sadly. Edited October 23, 2019 by Rayvin Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gemmill 34558 Posted October 23, 2019 Share Posted October 23, 2019 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rayvin 4964 Posted October 23, 2019 Share Posted October 23, 2019 Oh god, what nonsense is afoot now. Hard to imagine this will lead anywhere other than presumably giving Johnson the chance to say Labour blocked him. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gemmill 34558 Posted October 23, 2019 Share Posted October 23, 2019 An unconfirmed Labour source should claim that Johnson sat on Cummings knee and Cummings had his hand down the front of Johnson's pants for the duration of the meeting. Play them at their own game. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ewerk 26433 Posted October 23, 2019 Share Posted October 23, 2019 Agreeing a new programme motion seems like the best way forward for Johnson rather than facing the electorate at this stage. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gemmill 34558 Posted October 23, 2019 Share Posted October 23, 2019 It's really hard to know what the best option is. I think it's good for Corbyn to be seen to be offering to support the passage of the deal though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rayvin 4964 Posted October 23, 2019 Share Posted October 23, 2019 10 minutes ago, ewerk said: Agreeing a new programme motion seems like the best way forward for Johnson rather than facing the electorate at this stage. Yes, I think that if he just wants power, this is best. If he actually is all in for no deal then he'll go for a GE. The thing is though, presumably Labour will have something up their sleeves to bring us to a GE anyway. If we get that extension it might not matter what Johnson does with timetabling, he could face a VONC immediately. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wykikitoon 16708 Posted October 23, 2019 Share Posted October 23, 2019 How did PMQs go? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gemmill 34558 Posted October 23, 2019 Share Posted October 23, 2019 Seems there's a split in Downing Street. Slaphead wants an election. Johnson's other advisors want to get the deal through as they think he can be PM for 10 years if he does. Sounds like Johnson favours the latter (obviously) so is hoping for a short extension that takes the decision out of his hands, ie he'd have to try and get deal through before election. Who knows though? I'm erring towards an election mainly cos I don't think the opposition side of this parliament will ever get its act together to do anything more than further delay. Which is already starting to grate on people. The longer it goes on, the bigger any tory majority gets when the election eventually arrives. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Anorthernsoul 1221 Posted October 23, 2019 Share Posted October 23, 2019 6 hours ago, Gemmill said: As soon as the EU confirm the extension to end Jan, the opposition parties should slam in a VONC, form the GNU, amend the fuck out of Johnson's deal and take it to a referendum. If they could get their acts together, this would be the sexy play. They should apply for a STRHPW and if it's accepted then phone the LLKFD with another request for a DDDDRTY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gemmill 34558 Posted October 23, 2019 Share Posted October 23, 2019 KMP. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gemmill 34558 Posted October 23, 2019 Share Posted October 23, 2019 7 hours ago, ewerk said: Six weeks my arse. Firstly you need to decide on the question. Is it going to be Johnson's deal vs remain, no deal vs remain, EEA/EFTA vs remain. And the details of each option are going to have to be explicitly laid out. The question then has to be tested by the electoral commission which is takes at least two months. We're then going to need legislation passed to allow for the referendum. There will be demands that EU citizens get to vote, that 16 year olds get to vote, that all four nations have to agree etc etc. You have to remember that this will all be happening under a GNU so consensus will have to be reached on each issue and that alone is going to delay proceedings. Then the EC has to decide who the official campaigns are, then we need time for campaigning. TLDR; never listen to women. A speedy referendum would be a far better alternative than a general election https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/oct/12/speedy-referendum-better-than-general-election-brexit?CMP=Share_AndroidApp_Copy_to_clipboard Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gemmill 34558 Posted October 23, 2019 Share Posted October 23, 2019 Macron suffering from small man syndrome again, giving it the big one about not wanting to give the extension til Jan. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ewerk 26433 Posted October 23, 2019 Share Posted October 23, 2019 10 minutes ago, Gemmill said: A speedy referendum would be a far better alternative than a general election https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/oct/12/speedy-referendum-better-than-general-election-brexit?CMP=Share_AndroidApp_Copy_to_clipboard Utter nonsense. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gemmill 34558 Posted October 23, 2019 Share Posted October 23, 2019 She's a fucking barrister. You drive a horse and cart. I'm listening to her. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gemmill 34558 Posted October 23, 2019 Share Posted October 23, 2019 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ewerk 26433 Posted October 23, 2019 Share Posted October 23, 2019 Macron is a fucking idiot. It’s obvious we’re on the verge of an election. He’s just going to give leavers ammo to say that the EU are interfering in UK politics. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ewerk 26433 Posted October 23, 2019 Share Posted October 23, 2019 1 hour ago, Gemmill said: She's a fucking barrister. You drive a horse and cart. I'm listening to her. https://constitution-unit.com/2018/08/30/how-long-would-it-take-to-hold-a-second-referendum-on-brexit/amp/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Renton 17815 Posted October 23, 2019 Share Posted October 23, 2019 I think the truth is somewhere in between, maybe 4 months. The logic of a binding referendum followed immediately by a GE, maybe on the same day, is pretty strong. Separates Brexit from all the other shit. Want a tory Brexit? Labour remain? Tory remain? All options, one trip to the ballot box. Will never happen of course. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ewerk 26433 Posted October 23, 2019 Share Posted October 23, 2019 You can’t possibly put them on the same day. They’re very different issues. One takes away from the other. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Monkeys Fist 38786 Posted October 23, 2019 Share Posted October 23, 2019 9 minutes ago, ewerk said: You can’t possibly put them on the same day. They’re very different issues. One takes away from the other. You’re saying that because you’re using reason and logic. We know from the previous referendum that most people don’t use these when casting a vote. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Renton 17815 Posted October 23, 2019 Share Posted October 23, 2019 21 minutes ago, ewerk said: You can’t possibly put them on the same day. They’re very different issues. One takes away from the other. You can. The referendum sets the mandate, the GE decides which party should carry it out, acting within the bounds of the mandate. In fact, it's a GE which completely confuses the issues, and will very likely resolve the square root of fuck all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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